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Yep you were right about gold, huge reversal. Like I said if they want to hand out money then I will take it. I have not been able to post much lately because I am really busy and just don't have much time for posting but I hope you have been well. Things are great on my end. Only have time to be in 2 or 3 things at a time but I've been picking the right stuff :)
Yes, doesn't make much sense. Doesn't matter though. I still believe overbought will get sold and oversold will get bought. Bought JDST today at 9.75 because gold is overbought. Bought DGAZ again for another trade on it at 9.30. Nat gas is way overbought and has been for weeks. Nat gas fundamentals aren't that great either but mainly I bought DGAZ again because nat gas needs a pullback.
Last week in the middle of the week I knew oil was overbought and I entered DWTI and I knew the market was overbought and I bought UVXY. If manipulators want to hand out money then take it. Things always swing back the other way eventually.
Great day everyone. Congrats, I'm in UVXY in the 9s but this board is much more active then the UVXY one. Plan to hold until Brits vote for now. I couldn't believe UVXY and TVIX were so cheap last week. Bought all the UVXY I could.
Yes, good observation. If the you know what really hits the fan then TVIX/UVXY could hit the 100dma. I will keep watching and holding my UVXY and probably stay with it until the UK EU vote. Market was due for a pullback anyway also so the TVIX/UVXY buy last week seemed like low hanging fruit.
I am in JDST since this morning at $10.84. It never got to the extreme oversold point I was looking for but I am really liking how gold has been up for a couple of days but miners dragging. 2 big recent gaps that need to fill in GDX and GDXJ as well and lets face it miners are not cheap at all right now.
I still have most of my UVXY I bought in the 9s. I might hold UVXY until the Brits vote. Out of DWTI from $63s. Bought DGAZ at 9.16 this morning. Natty gas is very due for a pullback.
S&P at 2119 the other day basically at all time high to me was kind of silly. I however am not in the camp that thinks a big crash is coming. What I believe is that stocks are expensive. I believe global growth is poor and economies not very good but I believe a crash will come at this time. Market correction yes but crash no.
I believe the market will continue to follow the path it has already been on the last 13 months and that is volitle with slightly lower highs and lower lows over time. If deflation shows up though then yes market will crash. I don't see deflation yet but growth is pretty pitiful at this time.
S&P at 2119 the other day basically at all time high to me was kind of silly. I however am not in the camp that thinks a big crash is coming. What I believe is that stocks are expensive. I believe global growth is poor and economies not very good but I believe a crash will not come at this time. Market correction yes but crash no.
I believe the market will continue to follow the path it has already been on the last 13 months and that is volitle with slightly lower highs and lower lows over time. If deflation shows up though then yes market will crash. I don't see deflation yet but growth is pretty pitiful at this time.
UVXY just dumped money all over me the last 2 days. DWTI did me good as well. Sometimes they make this too easy.
Noticed that VXX/UVXY/TVIX was headed up last few days even though market continued to melt up. People are increasing their hedging. Gold/GDX/GDXJ also showing people increasing their hedging.
Oil was overbought and I got some cheap DWTI for 63.5. Dust and JDST are buys only if GDX GDXJ reach RSI 70. I think market is at a top. I have a good amount of UVXY in the 9s. Will buy JDST for flip if the condition presents itself. Getting close to low hanging fruit though.
Looking for GDX/GDXJ to reach 70 RSI before I load up here. Have not been in since I sold my JDST 15.5s for 23.5. Right now both are higher then when gold was $1300. Be patient and wait for traders to overextend on the buy side again. It is close. Island top or shooting starish type candle might have formed today though, especially GDXJ. Those holding DUST/JDST right here could be in better shape then they think. If GDX RSI was just a little higher I would have loaded big.
Meanwhile I have been loading UVXY this week.
Started a position in DWTI. Oil is overbought again.
IMO no reason why markets are near all time high. Profits way down. Last year at this time economies were better. More uncertainty this year over last too. Did a small flip here last week but have loaded up UVXY last couple of days.
VXX is oversold using pretty much any indicator one wishes to use RSI fast sto etc etc. Combine that with an over extended and over priced market (and everyone knows it) I believe this is a good trade here.
Also entered DWTI today. Oil is now overbought. Did not load up in DWTI like I did here. This is a better bet to me right now. Oil will have its correction but oil is very strong and bullish. It is also very overbought though.
Looking for about the same. I might be willing to hold for a little more then a couple of days but maybe not. Usually I hold this between 1-4 days.
I don't see as of now any crash event. Things are not great but not terrible either. No reason for the market to get much higher but also no reason right now for it to crash. I think trading range for market with slightly lower highs and lower lows as time moves forward. Basically what the S&P chart has already been showing for a year now continues.
I bought UVXY myself today, late in the day. I do not believe there is going to be a giant crash. I bought because the market is expensive and toppy. Fed rate hike fears, UK EU fears, corporate profits down a lot, economic data so so, election year etc etc. These things provide for a good trade I believe right now with the price of the market right here. I won't be going for a huge market dump though. A nice trade and that is it for now.
Man this is playing out almost just like I predicted about 2 weeks ago. $25 for DUST and $30 for JDST I still like as targets by July. I have not been posting lately because I have been very busy and don't have much free time but I never left.
I bought in again today. Not right at bottom but close enough. Bought JDST too. Looking for another nice trade in them.
O I'm alright. I was very busy this morning and I missed the JDST buy at 1.70. I would have been all over that and would have flipped it at 2 bucks for sure. I hate that I missed that opportunity today. Oil, same story, missed the opportunity today. Its like that sometimes when I get busy at work. I did however manage to grab some UVXY at 13 bucks and that is looking pretty good right now.
Debating now if I want to grab DUST/JDST but I think I will wait for a bit. Also debating on whether I want to enter HRB right here.
I do think that GDX goes to $26-$28 area but it will correct after that. I don't have the absolute answers or perfect prediction but that is my best guess. Gold will be range bound and flirt with $1300 at times. Watch the gold last lower high in January 2015. It was $1308 and until gold goes up and breaks that then it isn't officially in a bull cycle yet. Have to make a higher high in the long term chart to officially be in a bull cycle. Mining stocks are way up as if it is a certainty and as if gold already broke January 2015's high but if it doesn't happen then they will correct hard.
I do not believe gold breaks that high of January 2015 anytime soon. That would mean a lower high and that is not a "bull cycle" event. GDX will top out in that $27 area and yes that would put DUST around a buck. From there mining stocks will sell off hard after getting rejected and if gold has not broken past the January 2015 high. GDX would correct to about $19 bucks. Maybe lower if gold drops to below $1200. I don't think gold will do that either. I think gold is range bound for now.
It isn't just gold. Commodities as a whole have been on a roll since February. Steel, oil, nat gas, gold, silver, etc etc. This has been a broad based commodities rally. There is a huge problem though. Economies in the world are not very good and this commodities rally has not been driven by demand for commodities. If it was driven by demand it would be real. It isn't though. It is completely driven by speculators and that will not last. Can't have commodities surge in price and the demand wasn't even there to support it. With world economies not looking good prices of commodities now have surged which makes building, construction, projects, more expensive. Bad formula. Struggling economies with now much higher commodity prices. That will actually slow growth even more. It is a speculator commodities pump job without the commodities demand to support it. If there was strong inflation and growth then no problem but that isn't the case at all. The commodities rally will not sustain without the required demand in commodities to support it.
I'm looking for the commodities rally to be sold off kind of soon as again demand didn't support the rally. I look for GDX to hit $27 area and DUST $1 area and a flush out and then reversal time for DUST and correction time for GDX. Once said and done I see GDX at about $19 bucks or so and DUST around $30 or so (post split).
Yea, GDXJ isn't going to $28 this week. When it corrects later this month or early June (my guess) I bet it hits $28 then.
At this point in time I can't get a good read/projection on gold right here. Oil as well so I took my winnings from my inverse plays from last week (JDST DUST DRIP DWTI). Waiting for now until I can get a better read.
Currently I like AAPL and HBR as intermediate plays. I am watching UVXY close and might enter it again if I see the S&P hit 2100 again. I also kind of like a little medical stock SKLN.
I don't have a good read on GDX or gold right now and so I am on the sidelines and will wait until I can get a better read. My best guess for now is that GDX tries to push to $26/$27 but will not break that huge resistance that will be there. DUST/JDST will begin to come alive ahead of the R/S. GDX/GDXJ will correct strongly (if gold can not reach and hold $1300s) and DUST will run eventually to about $30-$40 and JDST $40-$50 (post R/S).
I will still be here. There is money to be made here. I do so about once a week. My last move was a buy in JDST on Friday and I sold it yesterday. I posted yesterday, been busy today and didn't have time. Right now waiting for a buy in again on either DUST or JDST. I was tempted at end of day today but I didn't buy.
Been a fun day today. On the daily that is one big red candle for gold and silver. I would look for both of them to continue to sell off for a couple of more days. Big red candles like that usually have continuation. Oil also, huge red candle especially on Brent. DRIP DWTI DUST and JDST with great days today. Top winner is JDST.
Another nice day today. Congrats everyone.
For the most part yes. Took some years to become disciplined. That is an important ingredient. I will go for the homerun every now and again but it has to completely knock my socks off type thing, no doubters. Like when crude oil was $27.
Nice trades. With TVIX or UVXY they can be tough. A lot get burned in those. I play them only when I know for sure the market looks topped out like it did last week. Last week TVIX and UVXY I saw as sure bets. They look like good bets still but not the sure bets they were last week.
I want to get back into DUST/JDST but holding off for now but I will re-enter.
I am holding DWTI. I made a post here Friday that if WTIC ended with a doji I will buy DWTI by close. It did so I did and got 89 bucks a share. I am looking to sell it soon though.
Only other thing I currently own is I picked up AAPL yesterday.
TVIX and UVXY were good plays for today. I hit on UVXY last week but not this time. I am constantly looking to get into UVXY when I feel appropriate. The market will have a challenging year and I think TVIX or UVXY will make nice trades all year long.
Nothing wrong with that. I myself rarely try and hit a homerun with these 3X leveraged ETFs. I go for 10-15% usually. They become low hanging fruit often enough that many singles ends up being as if it was a homerun. Conditions have to be very good for me to enter and stay in one of these for awhile. When oil was $27 I entered UWTI and held some of that for 2 months but unless it is something really obvious like that was I don't go for the huge gain in these. 10-15% in my book once a week or something is fantastic.
SOld my JDST at 2.07 for 13% profit. Another win for me in DUST/JDST. All I know is what I have been doing works. This was a very easy one. Dollar was oversold and GDX and GDXJ were very overbought. Easy money and when they want to hand out money with low hanging fruit I will take it every time.
Dollar has a big role to play in all of it though.
Even Paper mill companies have been on a tear lately like IP and KS for example. Anything and everything tied to commodities in any way has been on a tear. This is normal if in a strong global growth economy. Of coarse we know oil companies have been hot, steel companies have been red hot, mining companies are parabolic. On and on and on. Anything commodities is red hot.
Like I said maybe inflation will pick up huge soon globally. I doubt it though. Commodities rally has been speculator driven and not demand driven (inflation/global growth) thus far. If global inflation does not pick up then the commodities rally is not sustainable.
It isn't just a gold rally. Silver, aluminum, steel etc etc, every metal up huge since February. I have caught some of that because I was in US Steel (X) and Alcoa (AA). Charts are almost identical to gold miners. Also was in a little penny stock SMPR which turned into a 20 bagger. I was posting on that message board back in December when it was at bottom. It was funny as I was the only one there while the stock was running up giant. One other guy finally showed up after while and posted also.
It isn't just a metals rally either though. All commodities are in a big rally. Actual demand however and puny global growth says the big commodities rally isn't sustainable.
Speculators decided it was time for a major commodities rally. Maybe global growth will pick up a lot, who knows, maybe China's big time credit infused pump is working, maybe Japan and Europe can get away from being close to deflation, maybe US will be OK even though consumers are not spending. Who knows, but the speculators have commodities in a huge rally as if the global economy is about to bust out and that is the bottom line. This whole thing isn't just gold. It is way bigger.
Yea, I have done well with DUST/JDST even though they are down over 90% this year. I don't buy until GDX/GDXJ have RSIs over 70 and I stay away during central bank meetings and I watch the dollar as well. It has been working pretty good. Charts in what I mentioned before are similar setups to when I have been able to make 10-20% trades in DUST/JDST.
I'm pretty sure gold will top out this year at $1350 or so. Gold bugs will want more because over the last 5 years gold dropped 750 bucks. I would say getting back half of the 750 dollar drop in just one year is incredible. They don't see it that way though.
Economies stink and very few retail people have the money to buy gold. Actual physical gold demand is down big so far this year. People don't have the money for it and it is now 25% more expensive in just 3 months. Speculators are driving up the price of gold. Not sure how much further they take it. At any rate I just do my trades here and there when the setup looks appealing.
Dollar is now oversold with RSI being under 30. GDX and GDXJ in overbought area. Gold very close to overbought area. Charts show it is very possible that the dollar has a bounce, gold makes a pullback and GDX and GDXJ selloff some and give DUST/JDST a bounce. Conditions are all there in the charts. Let's see if there is follow through. I'm currently holding JDST at 1.83 from Friday.
Good post LJ and I liked the egg analogy. You are right that the physical demand for gold is way down and also right about how most junior mining companies are insolvent. One reason I sometimes like JDST over DUST.
Recently gold's rise has been all speculators and the last couple of weeks has been driven completely by the drop in the dollar.
I agree with the bears and gold bugs actually. Their theory and I guess mine now is that central banks have manipulated to the point that they are out of ammunition. Japan and EU even have negative interest rates which actually are hurting things and are damaging. They used these measures because they can't get any growth going. They are not effective and they are desperate and using experimental measures. The world is flooded with currency.
Bears and gold bugs theorize that central bank policy has hit a point that they are out of bullets and they will not be effective any longer holding back negative economies. They figure to buy gold/silver and mining companies as the the world drowns in flooded currencies their gold/silver and miners will rise greatly in value.
This is where I deffer from them. Maybe I am even more bearish then them. I think what if central banks' effectiveness has run the coarse so much to the point that deflation can't be held back any further. What if the financial system is threatened again like in 2008. If that happens then all equities will crash. Mining stocks are equities and they would crash. Deflation takes down the value of everything as that is the very definition and even gold and other metals would fall.
If there is to be banks failing and deflation as the conclusion then I don't want to own anything. I would want to short and only short anything and everything. I agree with the bears and gold bugs on their theory but I disagree with them on the proper actions one should maybe take.
When deflation comes everything falls. Even gold and silver can not go up because the demand is not there. Everyone is scared and many struggle greatly during those times. People do what they can to survive and feed and shelter their families. Gold and silver are not priorities. This was seen in 2008 as even gold dropped. Only once the bank bailout went through did it then go on a tear. Only after the banking system was saved. Not before and that is important.
I don't know if the theory will be right. I hope not. Deflation is very bad. Banking system being threatened is very bad. This time around central banks have already used all of their ammo. Not a good situation. They have none left. If growth doesn't start to get going then I will be troubled that deflation could come. I hope it doesn't. If it does though unlike the gold bugs that want to own mining stocks which are still equities I will not want to hold any stocks. I do not want any equities of any kind during a period of that sort. Towards the end of the deflation period then one should load up on stuff but not heading into a deflation period. If one believes a deflation period is coming.
Bottom line I kind of agree with the gold bugs thesis and unfortunately I see conditions that could lead to what they theorize could happen. Only thing is that if those things were to happen then deflation would come and I don't know why they would want to own any stocks of any kind if that is the case. Hopefully we get some growth in the world going and we don't get to a deflationary point. Deflation is bad bad bad and lets hope we don't see it but unfortunately things are kind of in place to some degree that it could come. I don't like at all what I see out of Japan or the EU. Terrible looking economies. I don't really like what I see in China as they have a monstrous credit bubble. US is by far in the best shape but leading indicators like GDP, consumer confidence, manufacturing etc etc have not been very good at all lately.
Thank you, I agree and appreciate the complement.
I see GDX going to $27 area, maybe as high as $28 something like that. In the charts there is an area of 26-28 that was major support in the past and then resistance. This will take DUST to maybe 1.10 or something like that. From there just before the R/S I think DUST could get back to 1.40 to 1.60. Then post split from $15 area or so to $25 or so. Which would be 2.50 pre-split price.
I have just seen this similar movie in others a couple of times before already this year.
That is my intermediate view. In the short term there will probably be a short 1 to 2 day pullback in GDX as its RSI is 74 and fast sto is 100! After that 1 to 2 day pullback I expect GDX to push to $27. From there my intermediate opinion will come into play.
Easiest way to explain it would to be to just talk about the recent moves. Basically recent moves are all because the bank of Japan. They did not go into further negative rates and held steady. They didn't do more stimulus also and investors were expecting them too. This caused a selloff in Japan equities but we are in a global market so it rippled to other equities markets.
Also because Japan chose not to dive deeper into the negative rate abyss it strengthened the Yen big time and made it go up a lot. The Euro also has gone up a lot the last couple of days. The dollar has been smashed. Gold is priced to the dollar so when the dollar does down it gives a big boost to gold. Also since the world markets have had a bad couple of days that also gets people to buy some gold.
Bottom line though is GDX and GDXJ are very overbought at this point in time. They will have a correction at some point. The correction will come when people who hold mining stocks decide to sell some. Charts show that there was not a lot of heavy resistance for miners to this point but the charts show very intense resistance in mining stocks if they go up another 5% or so.
At the same time gold will probably peak for this half of the year coming up soon. The reaction to send the Yen and Euro way up and the dollar way down have now entered over-reaction phase. That too will correct and the dollar might stabilize.
My opinion is that GDX goes to $27 and the dollar/Yen/Euro reaction stabilize and gold/silver cools off and these all culminate at around the same time. With the massive resistance GDX will have at $27 and it needing a major correction after going up for 4 months straight these things will culminate and result in GDX finally getting that strong correction.
Yea, it is really starting to look like it is a possible repeat of UWTI in early February and I wouldn't be shocked if the bottom is what or around UWTI's was. That would be $1.18 which also equates to around $27 for GDX. I know this has nothing to do with UWTI but I was in UWTI for those bottom prices and I am having deja vu right now.
A month ago I thought there was a decent chance GDX would be able to top at $27 before having a big correction and I think that will play out. My estimates are DUST bottoms at 1.10-1.15 and JDST bottoms at 1.40-1.50. They will bottom before the reverse split IMO and already be in the early stages of an uptrend at reverse split time. I anticipate the up trends (or strong counter trend) taking DUST to $25 and JDST to $30 (post R/S).
Only risk right here is that GDX could very well go to $27. It really isn't that far from it now really. At $27 though it will get a hard beatdown. GDX at $27 would take DUST to about a buck. GDX charts shows there will be massive resistance at around $27. It isn't going to break it considering it has gone straight up for 4 months now. It will need a very hard correction first before it can break $27. I have some DUST/JDST today but if I see GDX $27 hit then I am loading up huge in DUST/JDST.
Only risk right here is that GDX could very well go to $27. It really isn't that far from it now really. At $27 though it will get a hard beatdown. GDX at $27 would take DUST to about a buck. GDX charts shows there will be massive resistance at around $27. It isn't going to break it considering it has gone straight up for 4 months now. It will need a very hard correction first before it can break $27. I have some DUST/JDST today but if I see GDX $27 hit then I am loading up huge in DUST/JDST.