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Even if GERN’s blood cancer drug has got approved today, ARDX maybe better buy, because ARDX’s two already approved and fast selling drugs had market potential at peak 3 times GERN's, and its stock market capitalization is only 2 times GERN's.
Thanks, apatel1. Is InvestorX part of CSA/sedar?
ARDX maybe far better than GERN, because:
1) ARDX is selling two already approved and fast selling drugs with market potential at peak 3 times GERN's, though its stock market capitalization is only 2 times GERN's;
2) GERN's imetelstat has not been approved yet, and thus has lots of uncertainty.
My 2025 SMCI earning per share estimate: 5.59*25/3.66=38,
Because the company had revenue 2.12, 3.66 billion in the last two quarters, and guides to have revenue 4.1 and 4.82 billion in the next two quarters. Given the company is ramping up the production to fill unmet demand, the 2025 revenue may be projected at 4.82* 4*130% = $25 billion.
You are right we should focus on individual stocks: SMCI at 538, still cheap, because the company may earn $22 per share this fiscal year ending June 30, 2024 and $40 per share next fiscal year; TSLA at 192, extremely undervalued, because Cybertruck sale is just exploding. Analysts could only see existing data. Without data, their brain could not work even when face a new existing revolution such as Cybertruck. How could their brain work when face future revolution such as Optimus and FSD? This is the reason why analysts are so disappointed when Musk no longer gives them guidance.
Only wish my TSLA buy order 180 filled today!
Tesla’ earning this year will depend on the interest rate when the interest rate starts dropping and how many times it drops, as Elon Musk explained during cc and analysts chose to ignore. I believe as tsla no longer provides production guidance, it has no pressure to reduce price to meet the guidance, the earning from car sales only will increase rather decrease this year compared with last year. Musk also said during cc that tsla is a robot and ai company. How should we value the robot and ai part of Tesla with a capable ceo capable to launch reusable rockets? Analysts’ earning estimate for this year is not only very likely wrong but also contains nothing about far more valuable part of robot and ai business, and thus has no value.
Why analysts are stupid on TSLA:
" I find it really amusing that after all these years there are still analysts and fund managers out there who really think they have the expertise or ever power to tell Tesla and its management what to do and what not to do:
If Tesla doesn't give an outlook and guidance on vehicle sales on the conference call, they get mad. 🤭
If Tesla decides not to invest much in advertising, they get mad. 😂
If Tesla doesn't give them the opportunity to ask questions on the conference call, they get mad. 🙄
If Tesla talks mainly about FSD and AI and not auto at earnings calls, they get mad. 😏
If they make a forecast calculation and Tesla doesn't care and does not even try to meet it, they get mad.🤣
How long will it take for the analysts and its like to understand that they are not top Tesla executives who understand the business of Tesla better than the CEO?
How long will it take for them to understand that Tesla is not about short-term stock movements, but about long-term, sustainable value growth that will catapult the stock to unimagined heights?
Now they even publish lists of 10 bullet points and really seem to think they know what they are talking about and that anyone at Tesla would listen. 🤭
They can smear Elon, lower the price target, take them off the top ideas list or report negatively about the company in the media, but how long will it take for them to understand that Elon and his management rightfully don't care and have a great track record that proves them right and analysts and fund managers wrong?
How out of touch with reality can you be and who are you? " by alex avoigt
TSLA: its year end earning report contains no new information as its production was pre released 3 weeks ago. The gross margin was slightly better than expected. What caused the share price fall? No guidance for 2024 caused the analysts disappointed and they downgraded the stock. But I believe no guidance means Tesla could focus business development and profit margin improvement without pressure of short term meeting the target and thus better, which was the reason why I bought back some tsla share I sold on Dec 26. No fund managers could outperform the market every year and make the good pick every time. I believe the following is smart move: Cathy Woods sold some TSLA when the share price was around $250 and bought some TSLA when the price was below $200
TSLA: yesterday analysts and editors saw the dark side, whereas Cathie Woods and I saw the bright side.
TSLA: Stephen Wilmot is an editor rather than a stock investor, and is in the business of selling news. His article is fun to read, but no real value by repeat common knowledge in superficial way. Analysts are in the business of earning commission. Both editors and analysts have no real value for long term investors. Cathie Woods bought 177870 tsla shares with about $33 million real money yesterday, and she or anyone putting serious money on the table is the person worthing time to watch.
TSLA might but unlikely fall to $150. Unfortunately my new buy order at $180 was not filled. Analysts focus on the present or this year, whereas true investors should focus on 5 years later.
Just added some tsla a moment ago: it would not recover soon, but it would produce great return more likely than not in 5 years.
SEDAR is very corrupt: I wrote them the current version was far worse than previous one, and has never got a response.
How to explain that Apple, the hardware company, was used to have the PE ratio around 10 during 2010s, but now enjoys the forward pe ratio around 30?
I have both SMCi and NVDA. But PLTR:
revenue grows at 17%, forward PE is over 60. Isn't SMCI very undervalued compared to PLTR?
US stocks rose significantly even during the interest rate rising year 2023. How could she fall during the interest rate falling year 2024. Besides, 2024 is the year of president election! There are so many undervalued high growth stocks right now. Unfortunately I do not have spare cash to buy.
Interesting story on SMCI: patience may be the key for big investment success. Spending far more resources on engineering and research than its competitors and increasing energy and other resources efficiency to save its customers' money may be the key for its prosper.
SMCI: far more than a computer hardware company, and its PE was used to be over 30 and as high as 124 at the middle of 2009.
Wade, understand you might want to short SMCI. But she is still trading with a PEG ratio below 0.5x...
novicetrader, SMCI is still undervalued compared to NVDA and many others today, just as a few weeks ago when you discussed.
Novicetrader, you have a good point on smci. But why did you not put smci in your pick contest?
Great timing. When will you sell SDS?
The best day of the year possibly!
GERN: In case imetelstat indeed gets FDA approved in June 2024, the company need spend tons of money in marketing and selling. CEO said the market potential for imetelstat type of drugs is $3.5 billion. If imetelstat gets 10% market share, it will have about $350 million revenue a year, compared to its current market capitalization over $1 billion. Seems it is fairly valued. Do I miss something?
Thanks for your wise thought, SSKILLZ1, I this morning listened twice to the investor presentation you mentioned. It is interesting. Do you agree what the CFO said that the surging weight loss drug sales in the recent years is helpful for INMD business? How do you think about the company strategy in acquiring compatible business? Anyway, I added a little more at $20.5 this mornig. Along with the shares I purchased at 26.5, 23.5 and 22.2 last week, INMD has become the fourth largest holding in my portfolio.
Glad you have been recovering, SsKILLZ1. Thank for your insight. Remember that you said INMD management talked about seasonality during the 2q cc. I listened to it. They talked about strong performance in July and possible seasonally weakness during the 3q. So the 2q cc gave us the impression thg 3q would be ok. I guessed you became prudently pessimistic about the 3th quarter more because of technical analysis that the stock performed poorly at that time. Is my guess right?
I was busy with buying INMD with average price about $22.2 today. Some insiders seemed knowing guidance missed beforehand, and they should be sent to jail!
1-3 years' skin tightening and beauty is very attractive for lots of women and some men. AAOI's gross margin is far below 40%, Warren Buffet will not touch. I believe you can make lots of money if you act fast, buy low and sell high on AAOI. But in the next 10 years, INMD may outperform AAOI by over 100-500% in my opinion.
Could you let your wife try inMode products? The doctors got most 5 stars reviews when they used inMode products on their patients.
Betting AAOI is like gambling whereas betting INMD is investing for me, because
INMD has already consistently had rising great profit with lots of cash and share price near year low. Why bet on consistently money losing AAOI with day dream of its turning around, with share price already 400% over the year low?
I do not know much about AAOI. Seems it has low margin broadband business and has lost money in the past 5 years. Microsoft has been its customer for many years, along with Amazon and Meta. Why do you think the new deal with Microsoft might produce better margin?
SSKILLZ1, are you adding INMD today? My low ball buying order was filled a few minutes ago. Israel has a war. Its most customers are in US, but most production and research are made in Israel. It has high risk but the price is so good...
Lentinman: he was very friendly, helpful and knowledgeable. I was shocked in reading his biography in 2010. I Could not understand why I ate 2-3 pizzas a week, nothing else. Junk foods might have killed him in my opinion. If he had spent some time in cooking fresh healthy foods, he would have been alive happily with lots of wealth today!
SSKILLZ1: I have owned some INMD for several years. How do you feel about the CTO's proposed stock selling:https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1742692/000197640823000059/xsl144X01/primary_doc.xml
HRMY has good run lately: HARMONY BIOSCIENCES ANNOUNCES US FOOD & DRUG ADMINISTRATION ORPHAN DRUG DESIGNATION FOR PITOLISANT FOR TREATMENT OF IDIOPATHIC HYPERSOMNIA
NVDA CEO insider selling may be great, because
Last month, I sold 10% of a stock up 500+% this year. Why I sold only 10%? Because I believe it would rise another 500% in the next a few years.
Similarly the NVDA CEO sold 0.2375 million shares, only 0.2734% his total share ownership of 86.878 million shares, last week. 0.2734% is far less than 10%. So it may mean the CEO believe NVDA would rise another 500+% in the next a few years.
NVDA: Revenue and profit margin grows fast because of rising demand and pricing for the data centre service and declining inventory writing off. Data centre revenue increases 100-200% but the cost does not increase much, what is wrong with that? How could we believe that a well known company has the long history conservative accounting suddenly purposely did illegal accounting to cheat investors? I believe the writer is a sour grape short seller and desperately and purposely interprets anything negatively to knock down the share price and reduce loss.
The train moves forwawd into 2023/2024, but you still stand at train station 2022/2023