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RE:folluw up TheCleos manipulation and why...
One question:
HP told us it will use all efforts to become a major player in the 3D printing business.
They never told us in what sector.
They are two to three years behind in technology / knowledge, and are probably not able to win any race in any of the AM sectors within 10 years.
Would'nt it be a better choice to by the knowledge of some major players in a selective sector, a selective sector that is about to be a recognised and profitable part of an industrial sector (or maybe more sectors)?
Again, my focus is on;
Arcam
SLM Solutions Group
Materialise
Proto labs
RE-2: ARCAM, SLM, and other metal Additive Manufacturers
The way I look at the market, and try to make the best choices:
Take a look at 3D Printing and Technology Fund Investor Shares ( MUTF:TDPNX)
https://www.google.com/finance?q=MUTF%3ATDPNX&ei=Ud1QVumqHtSDsgH4lLqwBQ
Take a look at the prospectus; page 3
http://3dpfund.com/_assets/pdf/3D_Printing,_Robotics_and_Technology_Fund_Semi-Annual_Report_063015.pdf
There you find the investments in the technoly sector.
Take a look at the the value of the investments made above 120.00
You will find:
Arcam
Autodesk
Dassault
Hewlett-Packard
Materialise
SLM Solutions Group AG
Stratasys
As major investments in our sector.
And Solactive 3D Printing Index
http://www.solactive.com/equity-indexing/solactive-indices/?indexmembers=DE000SLA3DP9
and take a look at the factsheet (page 2) for the current investments:
http://www.solactive.com/wp-content/uploads/solactiveip/en/Factsheet_DE000SLA3DP9.pdf
You will see on top;
Autodesk (I would not buy)
Arcam
SLM
Materialise
Proto Labs
It tells me the professionals do not believe that desktop printing is worth investing.
They believe that design software for 3D printing, and advanced software for printer control is a good investment.
Professional plastic printing is worth investing (Stratasys)
SLM Solutions group is an undervalued top player in the metal sector. And out of the picture of the American investors (German website)
Materialise (earlier mentionned with printer software), the one-eye in the orthopaedic sector, and their printing on command business in Europe.
Arcam on top, for all known reasons.
I am smart, but do not dare to be smarter than the pro's.
ARCAM versus SLM Solutions group.
AM companies specialised in advanced metals are the first winners in this business.
EOS is the best company, the first winner but private.
SLM Solutions group (also German) is also a possible winner with their multiple laser technology.
When you take a look at the sales and results over two years...
Very similar to Arcam.
There are rumors in Belgium that Materialise is working closely with Arcam and SLM S. G.
http://www.it-times.de/news/3d-druckerhersteller-slm-solutions-group-kann-umsatz-fast-verdoppeln-114335/
http://www.4investors.de/php_fe/index.php?sektion=stock&ID=97857
http://stage.slm-solutions.com/index.php?finanzberichte_de
p.s. feels good I could do something in return with the shortselling link.
Thanks for all your postings Charlie
shorts retreat
http://shortanalytics.com/getshortchart.php?tsymbol=amavf
It is not possible to go short on ARCM, only on AMAVF
Manipulation stockprice?
See trades started at 9:31 between Societe Generale and Avanza bank
trades from 2pcs, 30 and 220
Seller and buyer the same institution?
Finally airborne!
Materalise: airborne
http://investors.materialise.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=253045&p=irol-IRhome
Materialise to Deliver 3D-Printed, Flight-Ready Plastic Parts for Airbus
The company fits nicely in your portfolio
Materialise and Arcam Partner to Enable Seamless Integration between Software and Metal 3D Printer
http://www.materialise.com/press/materialise-and-arcam-partner-to-enable-seamless-integration-between-software-and-metal-3d
Avio Aero Thinks Additive:
Streamics and Magics, two leading software packages from Materialise, support Avio Aero in manufacturing lightweight titanium blades for jet engine turbines.
http://www.materialise.com/cases/avio-aero-thinks-additive
AP&C Files Strategic Patent Application
http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20151104005939/en/Arcam-APC-Files-Strategic-Patent-Application
Thanks, so the big transaction of 12:58 was no individual transaction?
It is not visible in the list.
DDD misses expectations, I believe some big investors of DDD might turn to pure metal printing companies for their investments
I am thinking the same way.
I do not see a direct relation between Arcam and Materialise, but I see relations between DDD / Stratasys and Materialise in the field of sophisticated plastic printing.
For example; when you think about human-body related printing like orthotics (for example hand-splinting)
In steps like,
scanning of human parts
correction of scan to working model
splint design (multiple hardness / colors etc.)
Printer selection for production?!
selection of the best printer software for the product
Actual production
fitting on the patient
....
All could be done by Materialise, in cooperation with printer producers
Materialise?
materialise is an excellent company, especially in software for orthopedical implants, and the production of it.
I am also invested in AM3D (German), take a look at that company too (SLM 500 multi laser printer),
comp. name is SLM Solutions Group
We now expand our facilities in Mölndal
https://www.linkedin.com/company/99111?trk=hp-feed-company-name
15.4% CAGR between 2013 and 2019 for 3D printing in medical applications.
http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20150528005546/en/Global-3D-Printing-Medical-Applications-Market-Exhibit#.VWbRRTf1G1E
Good to know that a big investmentfund has the same confidence.
fingers crossed,
for the order history some data to compare
2014: http://www.iex.nl/Forum/Upload/2014/8137620.png
2005 - 2014: http://www.iex.nl/Forum/Upload/2014/8137750.png
An older article, 2012 University of Texas
EBM / Stifness / Young's modulus
http://www.hindawi.com/journals/ijbm/2012/245727/
Mauser96 you're absolutely wright.
investors in AMAVF are mostly private investors, and the longs/shorts are mostly in the hands of professional investors, and there is a lot of manipulation.
The professional investors are in ARCM.
In Europe there is more understanding about what Arcam does, what the position is in the market, partnerships, support from the European Commission, etc.
And don't forget, the majority of the international financial power will not be happy when a small European company in the 3DP sector is going sky-high when companies like DDD and SSYS are losing interest from the international investors because they have a long way to go in making any money.
By the way, I believe EOS, SLM Solutions Group, and Concept laser will be the winners in metal printing, SSYS in plastics offcourse...
Time, time will tell.
In time all manipulation will pay for the truth.
Long verus short, only in the USA
http://shortanalytics.com/getshortchart.php?tsymbol=amavf
In Sweden it's not possible to go short
Here a nice search tool for articles
https://acamm.llnl.gov/media/links
Ad this; from Pratt & Whitney
http://www.designnews.com/author.asp?section_id=1365&dfpLayout=blog&itc=dn_analysis_element&dfpPParams=ind_183%2Cindustry_aero%2Ckw_24%2Caid_276773&doc_id=276773&page_number=2
And this:
Will Additive Manufacturing Play a Major Role in Aircraft Production?
http://www.practicalmachinist.com/vb/metalcutting-machining/will-additive-manufacturing-play-major-role-aircraft-production-300663/
read this?
Other, non-CMC parts for the GE9X under evaluation include the next-generation HPT stage 1 blades with new cooling technology and low-pressure turbine titanium aluminide (TiAl) blades produced at Avio Aero, a GE Aviation business, using a new 3-D additive manufacturing process.
http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/aerospace/2015-03-03/ge-starts-ground-testing-cmc-parts-ge9x
I see the price tumble.
And why?
I have seen it many times ahead of a by-out.
On low volume the price will drop day after day, or intraday a pricedrop on low volume and suddenly on threetimes the volume the price rises, and it is directly set back with low volume to lower the price again.
(See today,intraday AMAVF; volume / price up volume / price down))
A bumpy road, to drive the private investors out, and collect as much shares for a low price as possible.
And after a couple of days or weeks.... Bang!
I believe we understand a lot more about the progress of am in aviation than most stockholders.
We see that, and so does GE, P%W, Boeing, Siemens, DDD etc.
I expect there will be a lot of big companies waiting to eat this little mouse.
Don be surprised when the stockprice will tumble, it will be a bumpy road
My thoughts:
How difficult is is to design a bigger building chamber?
You need extra heating and a bigger vacuumpump.
Probably some more power for the eletro beam, or an extra beam, or a a third beam.
All in line with the expectations we longer suspected.
I believe companies like GE and Siemens will design their own EBM printers, and will work under license of Arcam in the future.
They have far more know-how about expanding specialised technology, than a small company like arcam.
swedish blogger Labull on redeye.se:
http://www.redeye.se/aktiebloggen/arcam/arcam-tankar-om-insiderforsaljning-och-annat
Google translate:
Arcam: Thoughts on insider sales and other
Blog entries written by:
LaBull (Member) 2015-03-03 12:02
As CEO Magnus Rene sold shares for SEK 17 million last week. Is it a negative signal? The motivation for the sale is "risk-spreading", which sounds good to my ears, but is an excuse often used. Naturally share sensitive to this type of sales because the valuation is high and is based on hopes of strong future growth.
Personally, I rarely put much emphasis on insider sales. Mr. Rene took before the sale of shares at a value of nearly 30 million and options on a further 400,000 shares with an exercise price of SEK 19, SEK 93 and 310 crowns.
Should I be worried about the growth outlook has worsened? No, I think.
1. Arcam recently reported a record profit in Q4 and orders said to be a "run-rate on one machine a week," according to CEO's comments on the conference call. It has been confirmed that GE will use EBM in its GEnx engine. Media Reports confirms that even Rolls Royce and Pratt & Whitney are customers of Arcam with great confidence in the technology. As the world's three largest manufacturers of aircraft engines with a combined market share of type 99% are customers of Arcam.
2. In the annual report published yesterday quantified Arcam potential for the two focus markets orthopedic implants and aerospace, see page 15;
"Arcam The potential for the company EBM system is significant in orthopedic implants. Currently, Arcam has delivered 65 systems for implant production potential is estimated to be several thousand installed systems"
"Arcam estimates that the aviation industry has an even greater potential and market believed to eventually amount to tens of thousands of installed systems, compared with the 60 systems delivered to and including 2014.
3. 3D Systems reported its fourth quarter last week. 3D Systems tillevrkar mainly 3D printer that uses plastic, which has no relevance to the Arcam, but DDD owns a subsidiary called Phenix Systems, which manufactures metal printers. The growth of this subsidiary was 175% in 2014 and CEO of DDD am extremely excited to tillväxtmöjlighterna described as "open ended", roughly translated as "boundless.
4. Sector colleague SLM Solutions, updated in late January, orders received for 2014. It took orders for 62 machines, compared to 26 the year before, ie 138% growth.
So arrows pointing up wherever you look, except in the course graphs. Arcam did a jerk 145-195 in January but has leveled out and corrected by almost 10% since then.
Given that the potential is set to "thousands" and "tens of thousands" system in the long term, I think that a PE ratio of 45-50x for the 2015 expected earnings (Arrangement VPA 3:54 crowns, consensus GAAP EPS 4.07) feels fully affordable .
I have raised my own forecasts for Q4 report and now expects 580 million revenue in 2015 and an EPS of SEK 4, and 720 million for 2016 with a VPA at 6 crowns.
Arcam remains one of my major long-term holdings.
Sorry, Q20 is capable for these measurements.
See the size of the intermediate pressure compressor
http://mundoaeronauticotla1am.blogspot.nl/2011_05_01_archive.html
So the vanes are longer than the Q20 can print?
I think we are talking about the "kawasaki"marked parts
http://bloga350.blogspot.nl/2013/07/low-pressure-turbine-for-airbus-a350.html
Assembled, it is that big
Q20 Max. build size 350 x 380 mm (Ø/H)
But maybe it is build in a bigger building chamber
prototype of Q30?
Rolls-Royce to Fly Largest 3D Printed Part Ever Flown
http://3dprintingindustry.com/2015/02/19/rolls-royce-to-fly-largest-3d-printed-part-ever-flown/
GE Aviation update
Jobs and careers in Auburn: Google Search [ GE Aviation Jobs & Careers in Auburn, AL ]
https://xjobs.brassring.com/tgwebhost/jobdetails.aspx?jobid=1216915&jobreqlang=1&jobsiteid=5346&jobsiteinfo=1216915_5346&gqid=0&partnerid=54&siteid=5346&type=mail&codes=Glassdoor
http://www.rapidreadytech.com/2014/11/ge-expands-additive-manufacturing-investment-with-new-factory-in-pennsylvania/
made some graphics; sales over 2014 and the last years..
You can find them here:
2014: http://www.iex.nl/Forum/Upload/2014/8137620.png
2005 - 2014: http://www.iex.nl/Forum/Upload/2014/8137750.png