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Yes, and I hope they do.
Ideal scenario is that Sigma gets small contracts from multiple parties so they can continue to go under the radar, if they can even do that at this stage. The bigger they get, the harder the buyout. I'm also now 100% convinced that they will not get a massive contract from any party especially GE or they would just buy Sigma flat out. So far I have not heard anyone here dispute otherwise, it's the only thing that is rational to me.
The problem with buyout at this stage is that it's not something we can retire on. So what, instead of .12 cents, we get a buyout at .20 cents? big deal. I don't want a buyout if PR3D is a legit product, 2x return on the risk we are taking is nothing.
Think about it...If GE gave Sigma say a $20M contract, this stock will probably shoot up to $1, simply on the speculation that more contracts will come. This puts Sigma at a 650M valuation. Why would GE pay $20 for a contract, that probably doesn't scale instead of buying the business for $70M and leveraging it.
That's why a big contract from GE (in my opinion) is a pipe dream at this stage of the game.
So yes, Honeywell or any other major party is very important, as Sigma needs all the leverage it can get.
Agreed. Mark and Vivek are key experts on the subject, however I'm sure PR3D is also being done with a lot of GE's resources considering the JTDA.
If GE does contract with Sigma, and doesn't buy them out, the contract won't be as massive as we are all hoping considering GE is helping Sigma develop/test it.
However, subsequent contracts with other non-partners should be higher.
Concern of mine that hopefully some here with more knowledge can answer.
Say GE has 100 printers they plan to install in their manufacturing facilities (I believe that was the number throw around before) We estimate that PR3D will be about $500K per copy. That's $50M in revenue, for a company with less than 10 employees with a current market cap of about 70-75M. Something doesn't add up here.
I don't see how GE will pay $500K per software we theorize on, or why wouldn't they just buy the company. No way do I see GE paying $50M for software + royalties when the company is currently valued at 75M. If they are 100% sure about PR3D, they will just buy the company before agreeing to a contract.
If they are not 100% sure about PR3D, then most likely scenario that GE will do is equip say 5 or 10 out of 100 printers, and see how it goes. If it goes as expected, and they like what they see, they might still go after Sigma and buy it out before they agree to a bigger contract. Of course at this point they might be a higher premium than before as news would have already reacted on the initial 5/10 contract purchase.
Or...PR3D is not what it seems, new technologies are emerging often in AM and perhaps Sigmas patents could be worthless if a newer/better technology comes along.
I'm just theorizing here...some help would be helpful.
I bet I'm 100% correct.
Fair enough. Btw that wedge we have discussed last week is breaking down, even bbands are opening up. Still can go any direction, just too bad since it was a beautiful bullish wedge.
EDIT: Short term wedge broke down, but we are still holding above the trend line, resistance has been clearly the 50 dma (yellow line in pic below, hope it works)
https://imageshack.com/f/p3TgWKHxp
You must be done accumulating. I prefer to keep this stock right where it's at or lower, which is preferred.
Only reason you'd want this stock to go up is if you are simply done investing in it.
We all know the only word that matters (as someone pointed out earlier) is "contract". I prefer to always accumulate as cheap as I can until that word comes about.
I'm not asking for job descriptions or daily activity feed and I believe most of us here are not. This is part of investing, the not knowing.
My only point is, IF a representative of Sigma Labs (especially investor relations) chooses to respond to an investor, they better do it right. I'm 100% fine with a non-response because that is what I expect, and look to find my answers in 8K's, 10Q's PR's or other means.
His response did nothing to help, but rather cloud my view of key individuals at Sigma Labs.
This does not mean I'm hitting my sell button, and shouldn't for anyone here either. However in the + and - category, this is a - and a red flag. (these are my opinions, I expect and respect those that disagree)
No but they had Caesar Augustus and Julius Caesar. Though one can argue that would be Cola and Vivek. They just need to neuter Chris Witty and keep him in check.
If I was Cola, and knew how he responded, I would have a serious discussion on how responses like that should either be avoided or...if engaged, done so where it conveys our plans to our valuable investors.
It caught the Chris Witty syndrome.
I disagree. If you are going to spend the money, communicate better what you are doing with it, it's as simple as that. AND if you don't have a good answer, don't respond to begin with.
I'm giving Cola the benefit of the doubt, but try not to mistake an expert in metals with an expert in running a business. He might posses both, but odds are he doesn't. Which is fine, we all expect that anyway, at least I do. But how Chris responded? This is alarming to me.
The right response from Chris should have been (since he chose to answer to begin with) is...
Thank you for your question <name>. The 3 individuals we hired were technical positions. These positions are key in helping Sigma Labs move PrintRite3d towards commercialization.
Specifically, position A will...Position B will...Position C will.
Should you have any further questions, please don't hesitate to contact me and thank you for being a valued investor.
Something along that BS....
Not up to speed? Do not defend this guy. If he doesn't know the answer or have the answer, he shouldn't respond until he finds it. Then you respond in a satisfactory way...his answer was unacceptable and unprofessional.
And how is he not up to speed? If I worked with only 3-5 people, I'd probably know their sh*t cycle by now, not like he is working with 800 employees.
My interest to help him? It's called the $50K I invested in this company, which in part went to his salary. I expect him to do his job, not help him.
As far as someone asking if they are out of line asking him questions...you have the right to ask any question you want, again...you are paying for his salary.
Something small but very critical everyone is overlooking.
They hired 3 employees, this is something that nobody is putting enough emphasis on.
I have been part of startups that failed or succeeded, and one of the most important assets are the people especially talented people.
It's easy for you to dump $5k, $10k or $25K in to this stock. But are you willing to quit your job and go join Sigma Labs? I know I'm not. I get a six figure salary, there is no way on God's green earth I would quit my job, no matter how much I want to believe in Sigma Labs and work there to take a "chance", and if you say you are willing, then you are probably lying or don't have a job to start with.
99% of you will not leave your job, to take a job at a company who's 10Q just said we believe we have enough capital to sustain till 2015, but no guarantees of success in business.
This part...convincing a few employees to believe in you and come work for you is the most difficult portion. But once a few come, others get braver and will come, and once the employees see some sort of progress with the business, flood gates open and all want employment.
Some of you were concerned with paying these employees shares, I'm not at all. This is how it works...you take the risk to work there, you reap the rewards if succeeds. Most startups I been part of, we had to significantly overpay market, in order to convince people to come work for us.
In my opinion, this 10Q was one of the strongest yet with a significant milestone crossed, one I laid out above.
Good luck to all.
Take a look at SGLB chart...classic wedge is forming.
Has to break either north or south in the next few trading sessions. Odds are north considering the wedge is more bullish.
What are you expecting to see from this 10K report?
So many of you are expecting the stock to jump after the report comes out. If everyone truly believes that the 10K report will be revolutionary than the stock would have already jumped prior to the report coming out.
Just calm your expectations...its simply an update on their current status, you won't see 10, 25, or 100 million dollar contracts in there or anything that will be mind blowing as those would come through PR anyway.
Don't expect much from this. The only thing I expect to see from this report is their current cash position, and more importantly if they are progressing as expected.
Now I am thinking that indicators will not completely bottom out on the daily view but come pretty close...because half day view (4hr) has already turned bullish.
Right now everything points that we get a nice pop tomorrow.
15 min, 30 min, 1 hr, and 4 hour indicators are bullish, however daily and weekly indicators showing that there is still risk to stay flat or go down.
Technical analysis for those that worry about price movements daily but say they believe in SGLB and are in for the long haul. :)
http://s13.postimg.org/6ta5toxrr/Sigma_Technical_Analysis_080114.png
Just to recap what I said a few days ago (that this is still in consolidation mode).
200 day moving average is clear resistance (blue line), and we either bounced off or closed above the 50 day moving average (yellow line) so that is positive.
What continues to be positive is the fact that Stochastics continue to decline, but SGLB is not declining at the same rate, this goes same for RSI. This indicates a healthy consolidation.
However, risk remains in the fact that the stochastics and RSI still have not bottomed out, so this can go down further and retest it's biggest support which is around .10-.11 cents. Breaking below 0.10 cents (in my opinion) is nearly impossible unless we have really negative news.
If this stock stays at minimum of 0.11-0.115 or higher while stochastics and RSI bottom out (1-2 weeks, but don't hold me to it), then we are moving higher.
Near term MACD is negative and lost it's momentum, however it has been rising. Only concern is that it's starting to tip the wrong direction. Again though, if we can find enough buyers to fill the sellers during this consolidation while those indicators bottom out, then we go up from here. If 0.15 breaks, this thing will have a minor resistance at 0.18, but then it's open skies after that.
Granted any news, throws all this out the window.
Yeah my data is simply a grid of where prices could be given various units sold at various price multiples.
I try not to predict the exact figure until further down the game. Right now I just want to be right about what, not when and how much. Once we learn the ASP and quantity of the first contract then we can fill in the blanks and get a more accurate model.
BTW, like you I tend to be more conservative by nature, however for a startup company 75x multiple is very conservative. One shouldn't be surprised if this is trading 150x or greater initially. Look at DDD, even after their blood bath over past 6 months and a company with a lot more consistent revenue they are still trading over 100x.
I agree with your price target at 10M though...I had .56 at the 75x multiple, close enough.
Here is something I use to kinda give me an idea what my investment can be worth if Sigma Labs gets its contract.
This is why daily talk of prices are irrelevant to me and should be to you too. Make a decision, either you are a day trader, or a long term investor. Emotions out of both. Sigma labs comes down to one thing...Contract or no contract. Contract and we see PPS move...no contract, this stock goes down 50% minimum.
http://s18.postimg.org/ke4zc39x5/Sigma_Labs_PPS_Projection.png
Very profound indeed. I can't believe I missed that the past 18 years of trading/investing. This will mark a new beginning in my career to trade on fundamentals and not only technical.
I think it's one of the best platforms out there, however if you are not familiar with technical, and various studies...the whole thing can look like a technology planet earth acquired from an unknowing outer planet specie.
MACD (12,26,9, EMA)
RSI_EMA (14,70,30, Close)
Stochastic Full (80,20,12,3,High,Low,Close,3,SMA)
Then the usual, level 2 quotes, streaming news/last sales, 200/50/10 day moving averages, bollingers, volume, implied volatily (this one mainly for my option spreads) etc.
My platform I've been using for years is thinkorswim
I'm not doubting the moving up part, just saying the way technical are set up right now, consolidation has not completed yet. Best situation you can get in a falling RSI/Stochastic is that stock trades sideways while RSI/Stochastics continue to fall.
Right now, (based on a 1 day time frame) all of these indicators are still falling, and MACD is about to cross negative. Indicating we are not out of the woods yet. These indicators need to bottom out or perhaps positive news to reverse he downfall if you want the stock to go up. So my overall point is that if these continue to fall, but price is staying stable, that is the best you can hope for right now. So when the indicators do start to reverse, stock will push for new highs.
Personally, (barring news) this is not moving up until we have another week of consolidation and hopefully in the .12+ range.
If we can hold flat while technical indicators such as stochastic/RSI collapse, we should start moving up in about 4-5 trading days.
No you heard correctly. This is a bummer, and might cause the asset to trade flat.
I've heard enough though to remain with my position. Sure it can be tempting to divert funds elsewhere and come back to SGLB later, but that's like playing Russian roulette. I'm even ok waiting 2 years at 0.10-0.15 cents if I can get $1-$2+ later.
IPQM or IPQA was never mentioned.
He mentioned In Process Quality Control (2 times).
This does not mean they aren't using our technology (probably are), however because IPQA/IPQM is trademarked maybe he avoided using the exact acronym or term and rather talked about the overall concept.
In my opinion this is kind of irrelevant because key words are "In Process".