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ETLT banging on HOD .485 x 505 eom
Cloud, I went back and checked the volume... 4/7 was 2.3M, 4/8 about 1M...yesterday, 1.4M, today 950K... so back in april dropped 56%...today dropped 32% from previous day... as far as the other indicators, I don't follow 'em... I look for 4 reversals to make a valid pattern... pennant, rising wedge, falling wedge, inverse head and shoulders, etc... and the moving averages. 13dma, 50dma, and 200dma... and I follow the volume and the overall market to isolate explosive stocks that are about to make a run - which is how I found NEOM... and then the more I read the more I liked (from the great dd here thanks to JP, success, et. al)
getting back to the chart, a big positive is getting back above the 200dma, and 50dma... but more importantly for me is the 13dma curling underneath - often happens before a big run... redraw with a 13dma then go back and check around that same date... interesting...
Cloud, one big difference is volume... still hasn't come back yet... once the quiet period ends we'll start to see some movement again (if not sooner) imo...
DD: Mobile Search: Mobile Monday at the Googleplex
(--- from 10/12/05 but don't think this was posted on ihub ----)
Related Topics: General — Permalink - [by rafat]
[by Jake Kaldenbaugh] Was it the fact that it was located at Google’s HQ? Was it because “mobile search” is the next “big thing”? Or was it simply a bubble2.0 carryover from the Web 2.0 conference earlier this week? Whatever the reason, it was clear that the searchSIG and Mobile Monday organizers were somewhat surprised by reaching 300 person registration limit for Mobile Monday hosted at Google’s headquarters on Monday, October 10th. Tim Roseborough, President of start-up Vocals Only and attendee of previous meetings indicated, “Before this meeting there were maybe 20-25 attendees, so I’m kind of floored to see so many people at this meeting.” Clearly, integrating search with mobile services is starting to motivate people to give up Monday Night Football to come to the latest Jeff Clavier and Dave McClure chaired show-and-tell.
Another motivating factor was the line-up. Google’s Elad Gil was there, which was expected. Interestingly, arch-competitor Yahoo was in attendance as well, with Mihir Shaw on the speaker panel and demoing Yahoo’s latest mobile search apps. Other speakers included Zaw Thet of 4INFO, Mark Grandcolas from Caboodle Networks and Jack Denenberg of Cingular Wireless. It would normal to assume there may be fireworks between Google and Yahoo, but the real sparks flew between the audience and Mr. Denenberg of Cingular. It was clear that while the room was filled with entrepreneurs and companies that would love to exploit the carriers’ market size but are unhappy with the carriers’ dominance of the channel to the customer. Several audience questioners pointed out their beliefs that the carriers are stifling innovation and holding back the market. The moderator, Dave Weiden – a consultant working with Morgan Stanley, jumped in to defend Mr. Denenberg and the carriers in general by pointing that not all carriers have the same revenue splits and they do carry the costs of supporting the customers. Cingular’s Denenberg did a commendable job on focusing on presenting the opportunities as seen from the carrier perspective.
Another interesting dynamic in the meeting was Mr. Denenberg’s assertion that Cingular (at the least) believes that best interface for search and mobile data applications is the voice gateway. He asserted that one of the primary environments for mobile usage was by professionals who are in their cars driving. In this scenario, it’s clear why using voice commands to navigate menus and obtain information would appear to be superior than using small mobile device screens. Additionally, Cingular receives 1 million mobile “411″ calls a day and they believe that there are 3 million per day across all US wireless carriers; implying approximately 1 billion calls per year. At an average price of $1.25 – 1.50, it works out to $1.25 – 1.50 billion in revenues a year. Cingular believes that this is an opportunity to be extended and that is where they are focusing their efforts. Google and Yahoo’s representatives both conceded the importance of voice gateways by saying that they expect multi-modal access to be critical, but they clearly felt that their graphical interfaces would be important. The undercurrent in the communications indicated that controlling the first-line interface that the consumer uses will be an important battleground between the carriers and third-party search and information providers.
A big problem that all panelists, including Cingular, agreed upon was that current interfaces and process-flows for obtaining ring-tones and other media are too complex today. Caboodle’s Mark Grandcolas indicated that their research shows that 90% of mobile users can’t find their desired content on their first attempt and they never make another attempt again. Improving the experience by reducing the number of steps to find information and making it easier to find desired content at all would significantly improve mobile media consumption immediately. Cingular’s Denenberg agreed, making it one of the few areas of consensus for all panelists.
On the specific meeting question of how to drive traffic to mobile search, panelists provided a number of specific tactical measures they’re using. Google is using multiple channels such as including a Point-of-Sale “tip sheet” with a carrier provider but indicated that their significant broadband presence is a strength. Yahoo’s Mihir indicated that they’re using a “send-to-phone” concept that will allow someone at a computer to find the information and send it to a mobile phone by SMS or other means. 4INFO’s Ted Burns indicated that they’re using a “Print-to-Web” strategy, putting text codes on movie posters, in the USA Today’s Sports Section and other avenues to drive traffic.
Another important question posed to the panel was Where will the money be made in mobile search/What is the business model? Google didn’t provide many specifics but indicated that they see a blend of services and “multi-modal” as their strategic direction. Yahoo stated simply that they’re already seeing revenues with a UK partnership with Orange using the paid placement model in mobile, so they’re seeing one revenue generator already. 4INFO’s Burns responded that they see contextual content, or content designed around a user’s specific circumstances (location, time-of-day and search terms) as a winning strategy.
The panel meeting ended with a Q&A that had some interesting moments. First was a questioner that pointed out that the panel had four people trying to deal with a difficult playing field and one person (referring to Cingular’s Denenberg) who was trying to keep the playing field unlevel. When Denenberg pressed for specifics regarding the carriers’ misdeeds, the questioner indicated the revenue split controversy, the 160 character limit on SMS and the lack of location-based services (LBS). Denenberg demurred the revenue split issue but agreed that 160 characters is limiting and he personally doesn’t understand it and also stated that LBS is “coming soon”. The second issue that received discussion was the concept of “the Mobile Context” which refers to the carriers possession of numerous significant facts that can be coordinated to provide relevant offerings. It was pointed out that carriers will know a user’s demographic information, location at time of usage, time-of-day, frequency of certain search requests and other items that will be extremely valuable in delivering context targeted information and services. Lastly, Google’s Alad indicated that platform issues present an obstacle to developing mobile services. Client/server latency, supporting the range of mobile device platforms and understanding platform evolution is critical to Google’s ability to plan for the market.
While the 300-plus attendees made it clear that the gold rush is on for mobile search and services, it is clear that they’ve been warned of the obstacles in that stand in the way of easy riches. Navigating a relationship with the carriers, creating a truly usable interface for consumers and overcoming existing platform hurdles are all issues that these mobile “49ers” will have to resolve. With venture capital of course
SOG - Just came across that purchase of whereonearth by Yahoo for local search, then noticed you posted it on 10/19... anyway, checked out that company's info on their site, seems awfully convoluted way to get local search/advertisers on board compared to NEOM... bolsters the argument significantly IMO that the titans of industry would be highly interested in what we got...
ETLT - Chart - nice volume past two days, one to watch imo
We got slapped down by the 200 day moving average, which is at exactly .38, the 50dma is right above it by a hair, quite normal, no surprise at all imo, volume will get us thru it, pull up a lot of charts, esp pennies and you'll see the same thing...
ETLT - great pattern, been following it for a few weeks now... tomorrow looks like the day if volume can follow thru...
Success, right on, shows that Branson is on top of things, its standard operating procedure to wait for better market conditions, if he didn't shelve it I would be wondering about him... Like Michael Corleone said, "It's the smart move"
It's coming... SMS Anectode: While waiting in line at the local Ralph's (subsititue Stop & Shop, A & P, Piggly Wiggly), on the monitor they played in a loop an instructional video on "How to send an SMS on your cell phone"... it's like when your sitting out in the ocean, on a small day, and the first set comes in before the swell...
surfvenice
Rig, CHMS .55 and Volume...
UPDATE: Virgin/Hollywood: just had 5 mins to run into Virgin Hollywood and saw two "scan a CD or DVD then use touch screen" machines - no sign of Paperclick logos... also the touch screens on both machines did not function adequately... a bit disappointing as Hollywood loves new gadgets... but in the big pic this is small potatoes....
Virgin/Hollywood re-opening: I'll be there tomorrow after work and will get some pics.
OT-Fwiw, Cramer on CNBC was screaming about BCRX last night, so it's no hidden gem (right now)...
OT JP, we'll just have to make sure we're not dropping in on each other on that Endless Summer, I hope you're goofy foot !
I think its a great idea, facts are facts on FCB, Virgin, DC/MB... etc, there's nothing wrong with spreading the word IMO...
SRM-Great post. eom
I don't think so, that bottom trend line isn't drawn off the bottom of the wick... another way to look at it is we're going back to the upper trend line of the break out of the daily (on 9/19)... which would take us down to .38, in between the 50dma and the 200dma... all IMO, not professing to be the be all and end all of charting, just offering that there are multiple ways to look at the chart... and I personally would draw that bottom trend line from the bottom of the wick... if I was looking for a pattern...
re: Daily chart, another way to look at it IMHO, is a low volume pullback to the 13 day moving average... not present on this chart, which I personally like to use and see often... also, your upper trend line is not drawn off the wick... it's not affecting this pattern per se, but I'm sure you wouldn't want to teach bad habits to members new to drawing charts... :)
I'll check it out...
Rig, CHMS moving now...
IMO, first support at .48 since that was the break out on the way up, but it would be brief if this volume keeps up on (on the downside)... volume is the key
hmmm... the advertising co. (FCB) I would think should already have been lining things up, they've been on it for a while now...?
TA - Chartist, I use metastock, simple moving averages, 13, 50 and 200 and they're looking a bit different - more bullish, what method of MA are you using...? Also, if you draw a horizontal line from 7/14 we have another pattenr in play, Inverse Head and Shoulder (3x tapping on .48)... the more bullish patterns IMO the better... but agree, now we need the volume...
catch the neom wave...
surfvenice
Still no PP update, he must be pondering the possibilities...?
Addl's TA note - the weekly volume for this week already is just about equal to all of last week...
- next resistance/target (imho) = .55, it will slap us down (briefly) just as .45 did most of today... then we move onto .75
.45 was/is the resistance... great vol so far, also, we broke out of a big ol weekly setup (at .41)... we're on our way...
Expect a gap up on Monday, imo
CHMS bounced off 62% retrace - 52x55 on volume
Anyone get any details from the call... the access number they provided didn't work?
imho, looks like a bullish drift... not much bounce off the 200dma... but it held it up - wouldn't be surprised to see a big volume reversal day again soon leading to another big run up...
Agreed... 1 is first up...
CHMS, vol coming back, .59 x .60... looking good... would like to retest .74 !
Rig, CHMS vol picking up again, imo, setting up to blow a gasket, my first target 1...
OT - Allyn, no problem... imo, when you see this over and over, it reduces the stress (and creates great buying opportunities)... let's see how it plays out...
1 min chart... the buys are dwarfing the sells... imo looks like total MM manipulation... also, FWIW, we are back to the breakout point that sent us to .75 see this a looooot, always comes back (eventually)... IMO this is the reversal point - at the lowest .30 - all fwiw
Chartist, imo the line on the bottom is not valid, however if you draw the line from the bollom of 7/08 and the bottom of 7/28, then we're still in the pattern, which can be quite bullish with a breakout on the upside... all imo... also the relatively low volume today doesn't say much either way, no real panic going on... a big volume day will tell more...
Airpocket, that's not a true pattern, the bottom line you drew is invalid imo.
OT, I was referring to the surfing spot... the only time you'll see me nude down there is if a triple overhead wave rips my shorts off!
catch the NEOM wave...