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what about all the options that are under water now. Are they going to let them expire worthless.
200 week may be coming. But after a trip to 4100 - 4200. IMHO.
In the long run mkts wont like it. Even with this 0.75% hike the fed funds rate is still below the pre pandemic levels. Meaning it is still very accommodative. A 3.8 % fed funds rate by end of 2023 will lead to mass unemployment as companies will lay off to streamline their finances.
Less people working, less money to spend = less demand (hopefully resulting in inflation coming down).
this was a 100 point bounce. I think we can have a rally to about 4100 over the next 3-4 weeks.
0.75 % hike.
Dont know bout tomorrow. But I believe that a summer rally is in the cards that could take us in the 4100 - 4200 area. I will be exiting short position today. Just waiting to see how the mkt reacts to the fed decision.
Fed wants to tank the mkts. That's what they do. Pump and dump. Let's see which way it goes.
50 basis points is all we get today. Fed as we now know is all talk. They are also supposed to start a 45 billion taper this month, but have not done so.
Anyone think the weekly 200 ma could be visited in the month of june. currently sitting at 3503.
is 3696 the new target
Nice chart. BTW this is the first time you have made a definite projection. That people can take with them.
Volume is quite high today in light of a no news day. Tight range as well.
Nice strategy. What is your take on today's action for the remainder of the day. Is there a possibility to crack 3700 or can there be a late day rally to end green.
I think we are setting up for an oversold bounce to about 4100. Bear mkt rally. Flag day coming up as well.
Good writeup.
What strategy do you recommend in your experience for this bear mkt.
Sell the rallies or stay the course short.
Perfect opportunity for shorts to get trapped today. I'm exiting eod.
Ya still think its a double top based on your charting?
The fed funds rate should right now be at 5% if they really want to curb inflation. Then gradually move it up to 10%. Anything below that is just a token effort.
How does one know in advance what is top or bottom is. One can sell near the bottom or near a top.
Do you believe we saw the bottom for today or this week?
The only way people wont be able to afford over priced homes that have already been bought is if they start losing their jobs. Otherwise those who have already bought are fixed to the low rates and should be ok.
any takers for the weekly 200 dma this week. Currently at 3503.
I think you are being a little generous. Ten year lows will be taken out by the end of 2023. SPX will be sub 1000 as this hot air balloon comes back to earth.
It looks like a double top right now. But I believe in the bigger picture it is a completion of a cup in the cup n handle formation. There should be consolidation here over the summer to complete the handle. But it is definitely headed to 5 %.
At least that what I think. Nice charts as always.
If 3900 does not give in today. It will next week.
TNX just .007 away from making a 52 week high and just inches away from making a 5 yr high as well. In short its about to bust thru to 5%. Once the banks start offering 3% on jumbo cd's (100K). SPY will crash.
The crazy one is sitting in DC. Putin is just trying to defend his country from the NATO slave masters and decoupling from the $ as a reserve currency.
What is the time frame for your 3200 - 3400 target.
The party has just started. It has a long way to go down.
That will be a 6.7% drop from today's close. Not happening by tomorrow. If that happens tomorrow, it could mark a short term bottom. Even 3850 for tomorrow is a stretch. End of next week is a good probability.
There goes your 4042. Now what
It is headed to test the recent lows. A close below 3837.25, will be the official recession. spx 2200 is a very likely possibility within a year.
why
Blue line did act as a support. Now trying to test 410. Will it break thru convincingly for the short term. Don't know yet. Volume is non-existent.
There is something to that level that the mkt does not want to give it up. But it will in a decisive way within the next five trading sessions.
Might be an eod push downwards.
The fed is beginning its taper starting this month. Let us see if they can bring the balance sheet down to under 4 trillion in the next five years.
China sentences ex party chief to death for insider trading. Hmmm
https://news.yahoo.com/china-sentences-ex-city-party-020248179.html
why the sudden drop into the close.
We had a gravestone doji. Bearish daily pattern.
Maybe bad news come AH, like yesterday.