Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
$NDX 1830 looks like the line in the sand. A breach of the 50dma and we may reverse back to 1800. (Edit - that's QQQQ 45 by the way.)
NM, yeah it sure looks like we're rolling over on the 200dma on the 60min charts and coupled with the bearish shooting star that's printing on the daily. This past month is like groundhogs day I tell you. Bill Murray would be proud.
FE, interesting chart. BTW the 10,20,30 and 200dma are all coiling and very close together on the 60min chart.
Oil popped after the report @ 10:30: "According to the government's weekly energy report, crude inventories fell by 81,000 barrels in the week ended July 25, which is smaller than the expected decline of slighly more than a million barrels. Crude prices were down 0.9% at $121.30 just prior to the release."
Thanks Be, you've probably been raking in the dough too with WM. It's up another 7% today. AMAT is doing pretty well the past two days too.
Gleno don't know if you saw this but I was editing my post to add this on: "(Although I am skeptical right now... We have to get past 46 on the QQQQs.) It feels like the movie groundhogs day w/ Bill Murray. Buy at QQQQ ~44 and sell at 46. That has happened like approx. 4 times."
Gleno, that could be quite possible as you said earlier Time of Month/End of Month sheepsters with their 401k deposits. Also that is around the gap/gap resistance area from 6/26, and also the target from the cup and handle 5min chart from yesterday. (Edit - Although I am skeptical right now... We have to get past 46 on the QQQQs.) It feels like the movie groundhogs day w/ Bill Murray. Buy at QQQQ ~44 and sell at 46. That has happened like approx. 4 times.
Ok... Out 1/2 QLDs @ 74.47. That's +4.35 from Monday before the close. I'll try to figure out what to do with the other 1/2 before the close. If it looks like we will print a brick up on the renko 15-20mins before the close, I'll hold and hope not to get whip-sawed.
Gleno, yeah so far QQQQs don't look too inspiring. The daily candle looks like last Thursday with that bearish shooting star. Today will be an important day. Again, if we close above 73.50 on the renko for QLD, it signals a trend change to the upside. I guess we will see. I am going to put an order to sell 1/2 position at 200dma.
Fox, I was planning on getting out of my QLDs before the bell, but I guess I was a little too greedy, it missed my sell limit by .09. I dropped the sell order from my initial sell price of $74.45 near the 200dma earlier this morning. Anyhow, your cycle work looks really interesting.
The problem is I'm not sure if we are carving out a pattern on the $NDX that is similiar to the Jan/Feb 08 time frame or the Mar/early April 08 time frame. We've been churning for almost 1 month and it looks like we're making a rounded bottom on the $NDX/QQQQs.
Personally I am leaning towards a bottom, we just need to close over the downtrendline on the QQQQs ~45.50-45.60 or $NDX ~1850-1855.
Be, good call on WM it's up about 10% today. I was too chicken to get into it yesterday.
Gleno, now it's starting to look like a cup+handle on the 5min 2day chart. Hmm... If we break 45.54 target could be ~46.66 in a few days? Could that be possible? ~46.66 is right at gap down resistance. (Edit - Actual gap resistance formed by a gap down on 6/26 is exactly @ 46.69.)
On the daily qqqq chart? That's what I'm seeing from your link unless I have to be a paid subscriber. I thought a bearish harami had to be a big white candle followed by a small spinning top.
Could be consolidation and a bull flag on the 5min. Not sure yet. If we break any lower 45.20ish will negate the bull flag. (Edit- BTW the sell volume on the QQQQs since 10:55AM has been really low.)
Although sure looking overbought at the moment. I don't know if we'll tag the 200ma on the 60min today. NDX ~1856ish or QQQQ 45.68. Some of the 5min indicators have been turning down since 10:55AM.
Gleno, that's where I've placed my order to sell the QLD position I picked up yesterday before the close. I hope they tag it.
Gleno,
The only problem that I see with renko is that it's slightly lagging. But it keeps you in the trend and renko is also great in determining the current trend. Putting certain indicators on Renko can make it lag even more so I would advise against it and just trade the bricks aka price. For example, look at the MACD on the QLD Candlestick chart. It has crossed up. However, it has not yet done so on the renko. The way I trade renko is I try to gauge an entry of where I think the renko may print a white brick. Ie- right now it looks like it may print a white brick on QLD and I go in 1/4 or 1/3 position. Qld just has to close above 73.50. Once the brick is printed, and a second brick forms then I add more to my position on any pullback.
$NDX - Notice the MACD cross, the full stock and the higher OBV which started to occur around 7/15.
If you look at the daily renko chart. QLD hasn't printed a white brick yet if you use 1.75 or even 1.5 pts. So renko slightly lags but keeps you in the correct direction of the trade. If you add a 7ma and also MACD and wait for both to cross on the Renko charts it will take even longer and you may have missed a significant % move.
I hope that makes sense and Lefty, feel free to chime in.
Lefty, you're right. Stick to the trend. That's the point of trend-trading. Thanks for the reminder. So with that said, $INDU, $SPX, $MID, and $RUT (Surprisingly the strongest of the 3) should be buy the dips until renko says otherwise.
However, $NDX/$SOX is pretty weak. Neither have even printed a white brick yet. QLD is what I typically trade and I use 1.75 pts on the daily chart because the price moves much more than MVV and is $3.5-$4 from hi/low typically in a day. May be that will change tomorrow since NDX futures are up as we speak from AMZN earnings. QLD needs to get above $73.50 and close at that level to print the white/up brick.
QQQQ closed two gaps today. "Gaps are maps" so I think we will probably close the 47 gap sometime next week. The 47.30-47.50 area will be pretty tough to over-come and will be a good short entry? 47-47.50 area is equivalent to the $NDX 1910-1930 area.
I just don't like the look of this daily candle though. It looks like we may have a bearish reversal. (But we'll need to wait til tomorrow for confirmation.) QQQQ 46 is also pretty tough rez and the top of the congestion zone.
Gleno, I haven't switched to the dark/short side but I sold 1/2 of everything this morning, UYG, QLD, MVV. Letting the other 1/2 ride with Renko. Although QLD hasn't really printed a reversal brick up. It's pretty weak compared to the other indexes. Anyhow, I'm not sure what the Beige book will foretell, but I couldn't just let a $5 profit evapoo-rate (from a ben stiller flick), especially on QLD when I got in yesterday at $69.30. So I sold 1/2 QLD at $74.45 today.
Lots of selling on the QQQQs since 11:25AM. I guess people are worried about the beige book? All the daily candles look like a reversal. UYG, $NDX, $MID, $SPX all are forming a bearish shooting star pattern.
Lefty, the new job is going well. I'm a 1099 Self-employed so I can actually say yes or no on whether I want to do the work. The last job with all that traveling just burnt me out. I racked up 25K FF miles in 3 1/2 months and at one point I traveled 5 out of 7 weeks. But I hope to be able to retire early. I know it's just a dream but your system is working very well.
I just sold half of my UYG position for a very nice profit and am holding the other 1/2, I'm still deciding on what size to put my trailing stop.
Lefty, I'd like to say thanks as well for sharing your system. I've currently in MVV and have also applied Renko to UYG. For UYG, I'm using 1pt brick/box size it's currently up 6 bricks.
Although I think UYG will have a hard time getting above the 50ema at 23.70. So I will be looking around that price for a possible reversal.
Investment banks skip Fed loans
Commercial banks borrow less, investment banks borrow nothing from Fed's emergency lending program, perhaps signaling improvements in credit.
"WASHINGTON (AP) -- Wall Street companies didn't borrow from the Federal Reserve's emergency lending program over the past week while commercial banks scaled back, sending a sign of of some improvements in credit strains.
Investment firms did not draw loans for the week ending July 9. They borrowed just $1.7 billion in the previous week, down from $6.1 billion in the week before that. Such borrowing rose as high as $38.1 billion in early April."
http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/10/news/companies/fed_credit_crisis.ap/index.htm?section=money_latest
Anyone know if there is a place where we can look to substantiate this article?
Interesting article from Stocktiming.com. Notice Liquity Outflows is almost as low as June06, Jan08 and March08 lows. I'm not saying it can't get any lower, but it's pretty low.
Excerpt: "Liquidity inflows and outflows are easily understood by any corporation. When their cash inflows are positive and increasing, they have money to expand and hire. When their cash is outflowing and negative, their businesses contract and they layoff workers.
The stock market is not any different. If you measured the amount of liquidity flowing into, or exiting the market you would see that these money flows correlate to market rallies and market corrections.
When Liquidity flowing into the market reaches expansion territory, stock values rise and the market rallies up.
However, when Liquidity moves into Contraction, stock values sink and the market goes into a correction."
http://www.stocktiming.com/Thursday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
60min $NDX Inv H+S will need confirmation. A close past 1870 the neckline may yield a move to 1940 which is also the 233ma which will be big resistance. QQQQ needs a move past ~46 to confirm this pattern.
ajtj, I don't have the balls to go long right now on GE because Immelt can't be trusted. I think that is why GE fell out of favor on wallstreet after Immelt said everything was fine in Feb/March but ended up missing. This is old but kinda funny:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24163368/
updated 12:59 p.m. PT, Wed., April. 16, 2008
"HARTFORD, Conn. - Former General Electric Co. chief executive Jack Welch said Wednesday that he would “get a gun out and shoot” his successor, Jeffrey Immelt, if he allowed GE to miss earnings targets again.
“I’d be shocked beyond belief, and I’d get a gun out and shoot him if he doesn’t make what he promised now,” Welch said on CNBC, a cable station owned by GE. “Just deliver the earnings. Tell them you’re going to grow 12 percent and deliver 12 percent.”"
Lefty, thanks for the reply. Currently still in MVV per your renko system. I am planning on using closing prices to base my trading decision and make adjustments to my order at night. If $MID trends like it has in the past as you stated before you still make a nice profit even after subtracting for the 2 box reversal points.
Be... look at the volume bar today, and the past 2 positive days starting with the 44.24 QQQQ low. We could be building a base/consolidating here for a move up. (Edit Again this looks like March OE.) Lots of earnings stuff next week including big banks.
Lefty, I am curious how you would handle today's whip with regards to your daily renko charts. MVV pierced below $63 intraday (LOD $62.83). But is back up now to $64.20. Do you set your stop slightly below $63 or would your stop be @ $63? or instead do you use the daily closing price as the final determination instead of intra-day price movement?
TIA.
OT - Fox, that is why Hydrogen powered cars which GM invented isn't flying. It's too expensive to split H20 and store Hydrogen into fuel cells, and can be dangerous. I believe the output from the car is water from the exhaust. Anyhow, unless we have an infinite supply of energy it's not feasible. May be nuclear energy needs to be looked into. But I guess that is why GM is on life support. While the Japanese decided to be more efficient and work on alternatives, GM went the other way after the 70s.
BTW - I just read an article today that said the lead Hybrid engineer for Toyota died as he was worked to death. He was only 45. His wife filed a lawsuit and it is the second lawsuit against toyota for "karoshi", japanese for worked to death.
That's what I was thinking Gleno. If we drop any more it will definitely be a bearish engulfing. This is looking like March OE to me.
NM... Woah are you Nostradamus? We're getting close to your lows as we do a complete roundtrip. I guess as OE gets underway tomorrow will be toast the shorts?
9-Jul 45.57 45.97 44.47 44.52
I've been trying to find an answer to that question over the past couple of days. All I can find is this which doesn't really help.
http://quotes.nasdaq.com/quote.dll?page=nasdaq100
"In addition to the Ranking Review, the securities in the Index are monitored every day by Nasdaq with respect to changes in total shares outstanding arising from secondary offerings, stock repurchases, conversions, or other corporate actions. Nasdaq has adopted the following weight adjustment procedures with respect to such changes. Changes in total shares outstanding arising from stock splits, stock dividends, or spin-offs are generally made to the Index on the evening prior to the effective date of such corporate action. If the change in total shares outstanding arising from other corporate actions is greater than or equal to 5.0%, the change will be made as soon as practicable, normally within ten (10) days of such action. Otherwise, if the change in total shares outstanding is less than 5%, then all such changes are accumulated and made effective at one time on a quarterly basis after the close of trading on the third Friday in each of March, June, September, and December. In either case, the Index share weights for such Index Securities are adjusted by the same percentage amount by which the total shares outstanding have changed in such Index Securities."
http://dynamic.nasdaq.com/dynamic/nasdaq100_activity.stm
Gleno, is that for the QQQQs? Cause I see the ADX line rising, but I have my ADX set to 9 and not 14 per NERS. (Edit I don't like the fact that USO is spiking back up after filling the gap.)
But I guess that is to be expected when this hit the wire: "Crude inventories slipped 5.8 million barrels for the week ended July 5. Analysts expected a drop of 2.1 million barrels. "
ajtj, Appl represents ~10% of the QQQQs/QLD.
TOP 10 HOLDINGS ( 44.63% OF TOTAL ASSETS)
Company Symbol % Assets
APPLE INC AAPL 10.37
CISCO SYS INC CSCO 3.59
GILEAD SCIENCES GILD 2.95
GOOGLE GOOG 4.58
INTEL CP INTC 2.77
MICROSOFT CP MSFT 5.95
ORACLE CORP ORCL 2.73
QUALCOMM INC QCOM 5.68
RESEARCH IN MOTION COM NPV RIM.TO 3.95
TEVA PHARM INDS AD TEVA 2.06
2bit, the OEX looks like it still needs to break 585 to confirm a ST long. $NDX needs to break 1875 to confirm a ST long. As a matter of fact on the daily charts, all indexes looks like it needs 1 more up day to confirm the ST bounce. So tomorrow should be telling.
Dogs of the Dow. Has anyone heard of this? I just looked at it. Some of them moved nicely today. But for the most part they are all dogs. If someone bought at 12/31/07, the recommended buy time, they lost anywhere from -15% to -70% (edit I said 60% earlier forgot to look at GM at -70%). One thing I learned from all of you guys is to always use stops.
http://www.dogsofthedow.com/ddoggish.htm
http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglance.php?BAC,GM,C,PFE,T,VZ,GE,JPM,HD,MRK
http://stockcharts.com/charts/performance/perf.html?bac,gm,c,pfe,t,vz,ge,jpm,hd,mrk
$NDX 1899-1910 is probably the gap magnet but will be gap resistance as well. I think the $NDX will have a tough time getting past 1910.
You may be onto something 2xer. COT Food for thought:
Commercials/the boys unwinding more short positions on the dow and increased a little on the long side. Bullish from 58% to now 60% from a week ago. $NDX dropped 1%, SPX stayed the same from a week prior.
Gleno, lefty, foot, be, blasher, fox and the rest of the board. I just wanted to say thanks I've really learned a lot from all of you. Yeah the dog was just pathetic this morning. The wife was okay with me not working for a couple of months but 1 week after I quite my job, she started asking me when I was planning to get a job.
BTW - Speaking of dogs, GE the old DOW dog looks like it may print a white bar (edit on the Renko chart) today if it closes at $28 or higher. HOD $28.03. Not sure if it would be a good buying op since I just looked and earnings is this Friday, and last time immelt caused a melt down with his earnings miss!