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Shuffling the family business around are we?
So Mr. Driver buys out his wife's company which is managed by his father-in-law Mike Watts and gets control of a Mil Sh of HDY in the process. Deal must have been done over sunday brunch and passed along to the board.
I just find this stuff interesting....
Hey Rule:
See my sig, you need this more than I do ;^P
Keep in mind (like all good countdowns):
-There will be last minute maintenance items items that have to be cleared up...
-Sometimes there will be delays that just aren't explained (the captain wanted a quickie before we sailed)
-There will be one (or more) pieces of vital equipment that will be late getting to Conakry to get loaded...
On the positive side, this is a drill ship, It can be fitted for drilling both wells (or more) prior to setting out for the primary location. So once it's rockin' it's gonna keep rockin'.
Speculation on AH trade block.
While there could be any number of explanations for this (and I've seen a few posited), I note that that the average of the closing price for the last 5 days is 5.15. This makes the trade look like some type of warrant excercise, but I do not beleive such a transaction would normally be reported as a trade.
But, for the sake of speculation, if it were some type of exercise it would fit in with recent options excercise by insiders. Makes me wonder why folks are wanting more shares now instead of waiting... just sayin'
Things I believe:
-When the information is right and both parties believe it is ready it will be released.
-When it is released there will be a PR.
-Ray and Co do things according to their own plan when at all possible, not according to whims and wishes of others (partners exempt of course)
-When someone in the Oil business tells me "I'll have it next month", that means I'll have on the 31st.
-When someone in the Oil business tells me "I'll have it next week", that means I'll have it on Friday, but I'll get it before Noon because no one will be in the office after lunch...
My gut-o-meter still says they receieved the "final" report today and will PR mon pre mkt. That's just based on this weeks price action and previous announcements...
I'm going to throw this out there for grins.
Last report from NSAI was PR'd by HDY on Mon. Mar 14th. The cover letter on the report to HDY was dated Fri Mar 11th. However the data contained in the report was all referenced "As of March 1st 2011".
Interestingly, there was a volume price spike on Fri Mar 4th. with no news.
I've mentioned this before, but I'll be curious to see the dates on the forthcoming report. Kinda makes a guy wonder who they are using for their printing services???
disclaimer: all just w/a speculation on my part....
Well, I'd be curious...
as to who their guests might be (if any).
Rebates: Not just for cars and electronics.
http://www.ehow.com/how_2075634_use-rebate-trading-day-trading.html
CHM, Maybe next time we'll get 'em with the warning shot ;^) eom
Volume vs price.
It is intersting to note the relatively subdued upward price movement compared to the volume of the last couple of days.
Contrast this to today's trading and the action I commented on last week on the 18th when the price moved up from 3.34 to 3.96 intraday on a day when 4.7M shares traded. This was what I was referring to as a "shot across the bow" of the shorts. Meaning they should be aware of the price getting away from them if they weren't more careful covering.
Body language and staging.
I was casually interested in how the interview was staged as well, not being a regular viewer of the program. These are usually staged with the host on the right of the screen as westerners read left to right and our eyes tend to come to rest on the right of the screen making it a more dominant postion (or more royal going back to early days of theater). A host will usually be more upstage and sometimes slightly elevated from the guest to add to the illusion of being dominant [of their show]. I noted that they had Ray enter enter from stage right, which is usaully a weaker entrance as they do not pass in front of the host drawing attention away.
I don't want to read to much into this, but the camera angle seemed to draw Ray more forward in the shot improving his position. His responses also addressed any implied criticism of the company's position very well.
As others have commented, Cramer is going to be conservative with this type of recommendation due to past criticisms and does not want to give an impression of "promoting". This may have given him a weaker hand to play, leading to perceived discomfort. Or he may have just been having an off day (he mentioned a toothache earlier) I remember the grief he took from John Stewart (a show I do watch sometimes) and I presume his producers have him reined in a bit.
One thing I would point out is that my personal impression was that this was a pull through interview. When you get constant inquiries about an up and coming investment, you can address it for your viewers or pshaw it as not being worthwhile (as the Fools have). I think Cramer and his producers made a good move here (I'm biased) and I am glad to see this company get it's story out to a wider audience.
I also think it was a savvy IR move as this was one of the few options the company had to help support the shareholders without deviating from the game plan.
I give it an A- (like my opinion counts for anything)
Don't forget "Shorting Naked Means Never Having to Cover".
I think I saw that on a bumber sticker somewhere... ;^P
Interesting action today.
Quite a move on relatively small volume. I agree that this is not significant enough news to trigger any real short covering.
On the other hand, this kind of price move on the volume being shown has to be kind of a shot across the bow of any entity needing to cover a large position in the near(?) future.
Wondering if yesterdays blip was precursor? I'd wager some smaller hands are getting their house in order.
More weirdness today. So did someone have a 2hr outage at their datacenter? I heard the lights were out in Rolla, but that's mostly USGeo stuff.
-Just pokin around for a laugh at something that I should accept as normal by now ;^)
Ran out of logging paper or Charmin?
More than likely the "loop" was just a reshoot. On the other hand, the location was awfully coincidental to some HDY leads. One can't help but wonder if the company got in some site survey work with the ship being in area.
Just a WWAG on my part, but always fun to speculate. It looks like industry practices allow utilization of "suitable exploration 3D data" for site evaluation. So possibly no need for additional work. (time saver)
ref sect 2.3 OPG site survey Guidelines
Hope we get some good info to chew on next week. The facts are always better than my speculation...
BOS Atlantic Speculation Game: I'll take xxxxx for a mil Alex.
Interesting to watch even just from a technology standpoint. (couldn't do this 10 yrs ago)
So we'll figure they are doing the contracted survey and...
A) Uhh.. this (X) is where we're starting and going north from here until we're done.
B)We're doing this area anyway, may as well help out a past and probably future customer and get their neighborhood done first.
C) ROG asked for "first" because they want things ready to start letting bids on remaining offshore when Oil is discovered. Could lead to future seismic business for BOS as well.
D)The Hamburgler and Snidly Whiplash want to spend money to look at something they could see for free (with more data) if they sign a non-disclosure with HDY. (had to throw that in there)
And yes I would be interested to see what they've tracked so far. Will be more interested if they make passes over HDY's deep water leads that could provide additional info.
I couldn't hold out any longer.
Not much for playing with knives (although history might say I'm FOS) but had to get a few at this price.
CHM, did you get filled?
Well... 25M shares placed and nearly as many traded in one day. You'd have to think anybody wanted some got some.
Next major news not due until June (was prev est late May). Ray indicated this morning that they plan to keep their 77% until oil is found, so no more speculation on a JV deal. Drilling date and plans are pretty well fleshed out. I'd say those who are still looking to add or buy in don't feel any pressure...yet. That said, if another large buyer decides to take a position it could provide a catalyst.
I guess I should add that there is an unlock date hanging over, although past share price action has freed up a good chunk of that at higher prices, so really believe that it is a non-event.
Re: www.pr-inside.com release.
I do not like the wording of the statement in the release. "Recently, Hyperdynamics sold its 23% participating interest in oil and gas concession offshore the Republic of Guinea to Dana Petroleum plc."
This is misleading, if not erroneous. I would suggest "...sold a 23% participating interst in it's oil and gas concession..."
Hope no one gets the wrong idea from this statement.
add: I have tried to send a message to the author via their website, but I'm uncertain if it went through.
Key points I took away.
I was a little late logging in:
-Recent funding primarily taken by 4 major investors 1 of which was Blackrock.
- 3D has revealed better prospects on the deeper water side of the area mapped. (hence the change to a drillship)
- 30% institutional ownership now with appr 1/2 being Blackrock.
- (ray) Verified 6 Billion potential. (I love spelling out Billion)
- 77% ownership until we find some oil.
Not to bad from my viewpoint
This is only a test.
For the next 6 months we will be conducting a test of the "Holy *rap, is my investment thesis solid? Network"
You may experience violent shakeouts, changes in altitude from either direction, or even periods of uncomfortable stillness and silence. Remember this is only a test.
(of course if you didn't study for the test....)
re: Your early order. I also picked up some 5.00's in the early session and noted that no commission was charged on the sale. My presumption was that I got part of the offering shares so no comm for me. However I have seen posted elsewhere that the offering shares would not have listed as regular trades (volume question). I was curious if you noted anything similar on yours?
<<My c/a is over Blackrock's now (just a little), but I ain't skeered!>>
Yep, less than a year ago the stock was trading under a dollar, now they have over a dollar per share in cash. But I expect that cash is going to be put to work very soon and will reap excellent returns. Even if the 1st hole is dry or non-commercial, it will yield volumes of data on the geology for the area which means the 2nd hole will have an even better chance of success.
Quick thoughts.
I'm busier than the proverbial 1 legged guy and trying to digest/ catch up on all this.
Short interest: The entities that bid/priced this offering are putting up some serious cash, why not hedge some of that by shorting prior and closing out with the shares you get in the offering. We may actually see interest decline short term.
Pricing: I for one am very pleased with the offering price, good value on both sides of the equation, could have been a lot worse and the company doesn't have to go back to the markets for the forseeable furure.
Covered our butts for 3 wells with cushion for unforseables and extended proving of any strikes. Gives the company the luxury of making the best deal possible AFTER they find the gold.
Dilution: Majority these funds will go into improving the asset. This is waht Ray talked about from day one. Making the asset marketable while retaining the most sahreholder value.
Bottom line: I'm not 100% pleased with the way the offering was rolled out, but I can't argue with the result. I may just be peaved because my swing trade on the NSAI report to the financing didn't work out like I planned ;^) Oh well, more long shares for me...
Nope they didn't mess up your eyes, initial reaction was someone messed up and entered a market order (I only made that mistake once as prev posted). Looking at Ollie's 1st string of the morning it looks like just crazy action today.
Hang on , continues to be interesting.
Sorry, I had ALL the March options. LOL
Just kidding ;^)
sahd3g put me on your IV pool.
I'm putting all my spare change into HDY right now, so too cheap to pay to post my drivel over there.
I'll take 11-11-11. I figure give or take a few days to get the rig settled and once the well spuds the initial terms of the PSA are met and any doubts about losing the concession are removed. Oh wait, 11-11-11, that adds up to $33 doesn't it?
This has been tried elsewhere. I hesitate to post this 'cause it involves a lot of WAG and omits a LOT of other information and intangibles. But here is a straight valuation model based on the following assumptions: Current shares out based on my own estimate; Current asset valuation based on market cap less last reported cash; private placement of $50 mil @ 4.00 or JV of 10% for $120 million. Dollars are in Millions except Theoretical share price. You could put this back in excel, plug in the formulaes and use whatever numbers you want.
Just something to talk about while we wait for news.
(Est val of asset x Ownership) + Cash etc = Market cap / Shares out = Theor sh price
Current Scenario
879 x 0.77 + 35 = 711.83 / 126 = 5.649444444
50M private placement scenario
879 x 0.77 + 85 = 761.83 / 138.5 = 5.500577617
10% JV Scenario
879 x 0.67 + 155 = 743.93 / 126 = 5.904206349
Future Scenario
2500 x 0.77 + -50 = 1930 / 126 = 14.8809523
50M private placement scenario
2500 x 0.77 + 5 = 1930 / 138.5 = 13.93501805
10% JV Scenario
2500 x 0.67 + 72 = 1747 / 126 = 13.86507937
Future Scenario better
5000 x 0.77 + -50 = 3855 / 126 = 30.15873016
50M private placement scenario
5000 x 0.77 + 5 = 3855 / 138.5 = 27.83393502
10% JV Scenario
5000 x 0.67 + 72 = 3422 / 126 = 27.15873016
With the kind of JV that is has been talked about (retaining maximum percentage through drilling) I don't think we could see any significant diversification on this round. More likely, excess funds and reduced drilling costs would be reinvested to further increase the valuation of the concession. Diversification will come when we have some big number proven reserves to market.
Once again JMHO
To take this a step further, what kind of capital do we need to get some nice exploration leases, or Buy into a producing block?
What do you think it would take for another company to lease a block(s) the size of our concession and do the development work we've done at today's prices?
Valuation thoughts.
As long as we're speculating here, I'll throw in my .02 on upcoming financing. As a long, I would prefer a private placement type of funding as it will retain a larger percentage of the company's only tangible asset. I think this will be more valuable if oil is proven and they need funding for confirmation and development.
A JV type deal would be better for the short term share price as it would place an actual market value (what an informed buyer is willing to pay in a competitive market) on the concession, as well as sharing more of the risks. The current valuation is still largely based on specualtion, as Dana's share was purchased at an earlier stage of development. Information since then has only been in the form of proffessional estimates, and funding that could also be seen as speculation.
In regards to the last JV negotiation, I have no idea what really transpired. I prefer to believe a certian scenario that was put forth where the other party wanted an additional percentage at the same rate as the original agreement. example: 240mil for 20% rather than 120mil for 10%. I can see where one would not want to give up more of the concession than necessary to acheive the immediate goal. I can also see where the other party would want a larger piece piece to justify participation Who wants to tell their shareholders that they've got a major discovery later down the road, but only have a 10% interest? That just would not have the desired impact on their valuation. I can also see where they would want a participation at least equal to the current partner so that they would have some voice in the development of the concession.
I have no reason to belive that scenario has any basis in fact, and the numbers I throw out are just based on Ray's observation of the concession's value in that time frame. I just prefer the idea to thinking our company leadership would tell a potential, well funded, future partner to piss off, so to speak. These guys are smart enough, on both sides, to know you deal with the same people on the way up as you do on the way down and the players may not be on the same teams later.
All that said, I think the curent course of building value in the asset as needed, without putting everything on the table at once, is a prudent and effective way to reach the end goal. I'm ever curious to see how it plays out. I will also admit to getting a bit twitchy as we get closer to actaul drilling.
GLTA
Motley Fool Posted Today...Again: What You Need to Know
By Whitenoize | More Pablum
March 15, 2011 | Comments (on ignore)
Although we don't believe in taking the time to research individual stocks (we let our paid subscribers do that for us), We do like to post articles on popular issues to drive page hits to our site.
What: This is just an article with general market information that we can plug a ticker symbol into.
So what: As long as people are paying attention to this issue (HDY), We will spam keywords onto our website to drive up page hits and increase ad revenue.
Now what: The Fools are a relatively harmless bunch as long as they don't start trying to profess any in-depth knowledge on the subject of their articles. One should start to worry when they stop paying attention as this is an indicator that your stock has fallen out of favor for some other "story du jour". reference Paris Hilton for comparitives.
In the meantime we'll continue to state the obvious.
Please click anywhere on this page, we really need the revenues!
As you state the REPORT is "As of March 1, 2011"
And the cover letter is "as of" March 11, 2011. I take this to mean the report was final as of the date printed on the cover and no further information was added, deleted, or changed. e.g. final.
Just clarifying my statement, not trying to nit pick.
Something to think about.
The report was finalized on March 1st according to the Title.
The Friday after that, 3/4/11, the stock traded over 7 mil sh and closed at a HOD of 6.35 after trading around a mil sh per day previously in the week.
Certain parties may have anticipated the release of the report the following Monday, and were willing to pay north of 6.00.
So, were the insiders knowledgeable in there valuations, or just knowledgeable that something was going to happen?
Thanks for the post, here's a story O/T...
Good read, I appreciate your viewpoint.
Y'alls pal wig*** brings a story to mind about a poker player...
This guy was a bit full of himself and the Poker books he had studied. As a result, he had gotten the table playing conservatively. On this one hand I had position but no cards. I wasn't going to give it to him so I stayed in and even re-raised on the flop to try and steal his money since I had a pretty good stack (and a few drinks). It turns out he had a pair of Jacks and had made a set on the flop. I got lucky and caught a straight on the final card. He gets all upset and says "You don't re-raise on those cards!". I replied "You would if you wanted to win that hand."
A few hands later he busted out (not my doing unfortunately). He gets up and says "I can't play against you amateurs." and I just said "Apparently NOT."
Moral of story? He probably would have done well at his own game, but you gotta be able to play the other players and not just the percentages to win. Of course there is a chance he was only there to disrupt the game, unsettle the other players, and didn't care about winning, if you get my drift.
Where's Red when I need him...
Found it:
http://investors.hyperdynamics.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=338615
re: Keeping it real.
Just to expand on your comments. For those wanting to understand the "real" vs potential of the current prospects. I highly recommend reading the definitions and classifications section of the report to get a better understanding of what is being presented.
Regarding your comment "But...to keep it real... 50 MMBO IS NOT ANYWHERE NEAR 2 BBO AND IS NOT....A SUPER-GIANT!!"
I haven't read any post suggesting the estimated area from the first report is or contains a super giant. However, the 2D data currently being reviewed has been reported previously to contain a super giant. I'll have to research a citation on that, but I 'm pretty confident that is how it was stated.
Of course if it is present, others have mentioned that it will carry additional risks to exploration and recovery.
That said, If the company does discover oil in the initial drilling, and it later proved out to be consistent with the estimates, then I feel it lends greater credibilty to that next phase of the exploration.
We are years from a producing field, but I still like what I'm seeing and the direction the company is taking so I'm definitely along for the ride wherever it takes us.
Disclosure: Blue collar working class guy, investing in speculative stocks with spare change I can afford to lose. Long 10K sh give or take for a few years (liquidated during US Oil fiasco and bought back in later)
Trading pattern, I got mine.
I've noted a pattern of pullbacks prior to moves/news. Because the entire world seems to "know" this is will run up on the report and it is due this month, I had an order in just above support in case I wasn't watching when something broke.
It filled this morning. While I'm still keeping some dry powder in case support fails. I consider this yet another indicator that the report is probably near release. Particularly when tied with the last "bump".
Just my opinion...
Feb bloomberg article.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-02-15/bp-misled-investors-before-gulf-spill-lawyers-say.html
This article is oft referenced in the news I'm finding. It relates the plaintiffs allege that BP fired or retaliated against certain employees. Prior to the Horizon inceicent. It also documents that there were layoffs in HSSE group.
There is a profile on Linked in for a Curtis Jackson of Houston, TX listed as former HSSE director at BP with Amoco ties. Seems likely he is one and the same.
http://www.linkedin.com/pub/curtis-jackson/12/1/12a
Speaking of trading action.
Not that I miss the Friday-after-the-close PR's we used to get under the old mngmt, but I think it did make a few of the day traders second guess about unloading at the end of the week.
Thanx for the update on 'tutes.
I have to say, I was almost expecting to see some large west coast holder, or an increase in CALPERS holdings. Still can't figure these late morning volume surges we see on occasion. Maybe the big monied just get to sleep later. lol