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You kill me! Here's to hoping you are right!
Well tell NVS to hurry up already. I need some cash and I can't hold these shares for another 4 years! ;0)
Ponatinib could well become a mega hit. Unfortunately all of these trials for the multiple indications will be a substantial drain both time wise and financially. IMO, the truth of the matter is Ponatinib would be better suited in the hands of a BP with deep pockets to fund these trials? It will take Ariad a very long time to get these indications to market. I just don't know if they have the capability to take it to the next level fast enough. I wonder if that comes into the equation at some point.
Just thinking out loud.
Looks like you are getting your chance to re-enter
Yes we know, to increase value for the NVS stand still/equity stake.
As usual great post Don. I suspect the Harv might be taking one out of Aapl's play book by under promising and over performing.
Does anyone realize that if you do the math and Ponatinib is "premium priced" at $110-$120k per year, we are essentially talking about the difference of about 100 - 110 patients here worldwide in the first year????
It's laughable that some are attributing the sell off to that. I don't think anyone really has any effin clue as to how much Pona is going to sell in the first year. Not even Ariad!
As you said, just one of those days. My buddy has a great saying:
"When they raid the whorehouse, even the piano player has to go".
Just to clarify, according to an old PR, the warrant deal was not for Hepsilev. The rest of the story is pretty much the same.
Fwiw, Dvax is my second largest holding.
Correction:
I went back and reviewed the PR. The deal was for a HCV and a cancer vaccine, not Hepsilev. The rest of the story is pretty much the same.
Apparently, they did a warrant deal with Symphony years ago for the rights to Hepsilev. Today Symphony allegedly sold 6 million shares that Blackrock purchased @ $4.86.
Sounds plausible b/c avg 30 day vol is 1.5 mil and today traded 6 mil. Huge buys and sells all day. Must have spooked the market or set off the short sellers and closed at $4.70.
A good entry right now IMO
DVAX getting a jerk job today. I'm buying more.
Let me guess you're a YMB guy to.
Take a look around. No Peter, Dew, rkrw,barely BTH, PGS posts Hera anymore.
Posting the NVS buyout a couple of times was ok. A couple of dozen is over the top
I thought we agreed that you would give it a rest with the NVS theory
Thanks Bell. Lets see if the FDA can do a little better with Ponatinib.
Has anyone seen any info on possible names for Pona? They (with MRK) trademarked Jenzyl for Rida if I recall.
If I remember correctly, Crizotinib was approved rather quickly. Wasn't it around 3 months or so?
Gdolla,
Stick to teeing up the sweet calls for the board. Leave the science end to Donny. Your (and I)out of your league brother.
You're taking managements word (and bloggers/posters) for it that there was this line of potential suitors prior to approval. I'm sure there were companies that were interested in acquiring, but probably not even close to the price AMRN was thinking. Now that this has played out the way it has, someone is going to get a good drug at a better price because AMRN misplayed this. What was the purpose of telling the world you wanted to sell the company?
I owned HGSI when it ran and GSK waited and played it perfectly. I see this going the same way.
Sure there's a reason why big Pharma wouldn't be as interested Now. If the patents are suspect to challenges that makes it a lot less appealing.
I own AMRN. Probably more than I should see how the story is developing. In the long run I think investors will be okay because I do believe this company gets bought out higher than where it's trading today.
I think that's a very good point. From day one AMRN made it known that they PREFERRED to sell the company. Now that the hand has gotten a lot weaker, they are obviously in a bad position. Bad job by management for Showing their hand and not understanding the ramifications of NCE.
This is a mess unless they get NCE.
These two had no real correlation other than it sounds like linhdtu owned them both
My guess is AMRN has had discussions, with terms not being what they expected. I don't think AMRN had any intention of launching alone and all of the NCE delays have put them behind the 8 ball. Now they are negotiating from a weak position.
Why is the FDA taking so long to decide on NCE?
IMO, buyout is likely sometime soon. Just a lot lower than Joe Z (and investors) had hoped should NCE be denied. Which is likely at this point.
I am pretty sure you have said this about every pullback since I bought at $1.20.
ATTENTION ARIAD INVESTORS: STOCKS DO GO DOWN SOMETIMES!!!!
To be honest Bell, the 113 news is fantastic. The CC had a feel as if the analysts were almost dismissing 113 as the ALK leader. All they really cared about was EGFR.
I am not even considering 113 at the moment.
The buzz around Ponatinib is growing day by day. If you believe Ponatinib is going to eventually going achieve 1 bil in sales, then you take a decent multiple and apply it to get a pps significantly higher in a few years. Add 113, regardless of EGFR, and you have one hell of a return from here.
We are very lucky to have bought Ariad when we did.
I don't care. Let the animals trade it all they want. For those of us who have entered in the low single digits, this is the investment of a lifetime.
Bell... the volume is huge. going to be 3+ mil in the first hour.
Rachel raises from $26 to $30. Calls the ALK+ results striking additional upside potential from positive EGFR.
Does everyone recall last December's pona data release? I expect something similar to happen this time around. The response to the great data was muted because all the big funds new an offering was in the works. Once the offering was announced, the Share price has taken off and has never looked back. I wouldn't be surprised if something similar happened this time around again. Berger Seems open to offerings around data releases, therefore I think this one sets up perfectly.
Just more speculating on a slow day. Good luck to everyone this weekend.
Peter
Ariad has had more of these sales than pretty much any biotech I have seen for a while. With the exception of Berger, pretty much every officer has had some. Clackson has had more than most.
Could you please comment? TIA
I hardly jumped on him. I responded to him because he seemed reasonable, unlike some others.
The lawsuit, regardless of it's merit or outcome, is not going to help the next 12 months and that is the point I am trying to make.
PPHM is in a bad cash situation and any solution to the problem in the short term is unlikely to be a favorable one for shareholders.
If you are holding on hoping for a partner or the lawsuit to save PPHM over the next 12 months, I think you are in trouble.
Good luck.
Do you really think PPHM will see any money from this suit (if they were actually were to win or get the other side to agree to a deal) before April 2013?
So what do they do about the cash crunch in the mean time?
If you don't mind, can you please explain how the market would view a total clusterf%#k and this lawsuit a positive development?
Also, what does this lawsuit do to help the obviously bad cash squeeze PPHM will now be dealing with?
It's very obvious that PPHM is in a very bad situation here. Investors should look at this objectively instead of hoping.
Good luck.
I am going with 30 days from here. It's already been a while.
I've been buying oct 25's. I don't think this news will be sold
Bell
I think at this point it would be wise for me to shed some common. I am holding from 2008. Only the Harv and a few of us lunatics have held our entire position. If I sell common, I would like to replace them with some leverage that I can get with the calls. I will have to start exploring which would be best. If anyone has done the investigative work on them, would you please private message me with what you have. If the market dumps this week, Ariad might offer a nice opportunity to buy in.
A significant pullback and I might take a nice long term call position and shed some of my original common should the 113 news be something really special.
Sean,
After today's announcement, you would think that you might see the tremendous value in the objective opinions of the likes of Dew, Sally Church, JQ1234 etc.
Nobody is ever right 100%, but these people (and many others on the BV board) are extremely knowledgeable biotech investors. A good bull/bear debate should be welcomed. Hell, it might have saved some here a lot of money.
They voiced their opinion and many here did not want to hear it. Instead of being angry at them, PPHM investors (who were as obnoxious as I have ever come across) should learn from this mistake and learn from it. The Bavi data was suspicious and too good to be true. It has a history of prior disappointments and all of a sudden it just became a miracle pill! Usually, this is how circumstances such as that end up.
Go ahead and release a venom laced tirade now.
.30 on a $23.60 pps is hardly the woodshed.
Someone is watching the ticks again. Stocks do go down sometimes.
It was said in jest.
Actually the ARIA board sounds a lot like the PPHM board at times.
At this valuation, there is very little room for error in Ariad's PPS. They would essentially have to deliver in spades at ESMO and execute the Ponatinib launch to perfection. The risk/reward scenario has certainly skewed in favor to the short side at this point.
That being said, I am still long. I think Ponatinib is going to hit the ground running and eventually get a respectable % of the first and second line. Especially if they get a favorable label soon as Peter has eluded to.
We will have a pretty good idea of what they have in 113 in 5 short days.