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Technically,
Don't want to raise anyone's hopes disproportionately, but over the last 4 days, we've been in the process of forming a "Golden Cross",
which is purported to be extremely bullish:
http://www.econtrader.com/technicals/what_is/golden_cross.htm
Regards,
bw
Thanks!
Have to do something positive while we travel this "long and winding road" that leads to the heart ( of TKI efficacy)-
And, since I don't play golf lol...
Anyone besides Doug and Vid have a significant position there-
I know I did ;)))!
You may be right- I don't remember hearing that...
There is no 30mg dose currently available-
http://iclusig.com/pi/pdfs/Iclusig-Prescribing-Information.pdf
A 30mg Strategy?
Yes, would give them that option, without compromising the premium price for full dosage-
Unless of course, data showed that the difference in 3 month transcript levels for 30 vs 45mgs was negligible, in which case, if the price for 30 was significantly lower, and Docs started to use mostly 30mgs, it could hurt revenue,
unless, again, of course, total market share rises significantly to make up(or exceed)the difference.
I guess the bottom line question is, if we are able to get essentially the same results(but with a competitive(to superior)side effect profile)at 30mgs, and MD Anderson/Cortes and EPIC confirm this,
will we be able to lower prices enough(for 30mgs)to capture most if not all of the second line in addition to gains in 1st line for an expanding number of cohorts?
Since I assume that Pona will never be able to compete with a generic imatinib profitably, Ariad(via Cortes) may be laying the groundwork for capturing the largest share of the second line with a reduced 30mg price option that undercuts the other 2nd lines while maintaining the premium price for 45mgs for those that need it.
Assuming we can demonstrate superior efficacy for the majority of cml pts via this approach, this strikes me as an excellent, forward-looking commercial strategy to capture market share, not to mention addressing any residual concerns about side effects that may remain.
To the degree that they continue to hold those shares, I would think it is.
Wasn't really even thinking about these-
However, when they beat, I'm inclined to think that any guidance raise will be as conservative as their initial guidance to set up for further beats in the future.
Overall, this will be viewed as bullish, but how much "gas" we get out of it is a little hard to predict(as even the most myopic observers now recognize that we're going to beat)...
Assuming we don't get anything else "of substance", the question will be, when is the next major catalyst likely?
How that's answered by most will probably determine our short-term fate.
And, I'm certain(only)that I don't know the answer to that question(lol)...
However, I'm not particularly concerned either, since we're only talking short-term here.
Ariad Sales/Slump???
I wouldn't call it trading activity-
There was a company-wide sale of securities (on 7-18-13)in conjunction with a preexisting(10b5-1)trading plan, and it looks like all these were sold to pay for withholding taxes relating to the vesting of existing performance stock awards.
http://investor.ariad.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=118422&p=irol-sec
I don't view these(preexisting sales plans/provided they're not excessive) as indicative of trying to sell at or near a top so much as a company wide approach to provide a comfortable living wage so company officers can focus upon the long-term development of the company, rather than having to constantly worry about how much to sell and when.
As such, it probably tells us very little(if anything) about the short term prospects of the company(except that officers have adopted a long-term perspective, which is a good thing).
Therefore, I think those that conclude that it means anything about the quarterly report,or other imminent developments,(and there are some), are mistaken.
Instead, what I believe we're seeing is simply a continuation of our inability to break through the sma200 definitively, coupled with our consolidation at this higher level.
Although we haven't participated very much over the last 6 months, biotech is still digesting it's historic gains. Barring any "unexpected" major catalysts, this(IMO), combined with a slow summer market, will weigh on us for a little while longer, until we start to move up again as we approach the Fall.
If we, for whatever reason, break down(momentarily) into the mid 18s, I would be a buyer.
thesaud,
I've been out of the loop for the last day or so(family issues), so I just saw your post.
Please accept my best wishes for your rapid and complete recovery.
Glad to hear you caught it at such an early stage.
Best,
bw
Ariad Investors have to hope that if EU doctors are, by and large, more sophisticated, that will translate into stricter adherence to newly advanced switch criteria,
and that this factor will sufficiently offset greater cost consciousness in the EU.
I'm hopeful, because this kind of approach would play to Iclusig's biggest advantage:efficacy.
Let me be clear-I'm not suggesting that(lol)
I did a quick scan of the report, and remembered that the prospects for Bosulif front-line use were noted somewhat more favorably than Iclusig.
Looking a little deeper,(and as Peter noted), they used surveys(like the one on Pg20 that indicate survey docs expected(5 to 0) to prescribe Bosulif 1st line vs Iclusig in the longer-term(when Gleevec is generic))which might suggest Bosulif has a stronger front-line potential(at least in the EU).
Though they note that 4 docs in Italy preferring Bosulif to Iclusig in the future frontline setting may be an error, they apparently didn't remove it from their resulting data set, which, to my mind, should,(in addition to the implausibility of Bosulif being preferred in the frontline, and, particularly, when such small numbers are involved(21 of 25 polled)), call the entire survey into serious question.
This may turn out to be little more than a hard test of the sma200.
Personally, I don't believe this particular spin piece will have much staying power...
It's achieved what it was designed to do-
provide a trading opportunity.
Barring a general market collapse, we should recover shortly.
Well, I'd be more convinced to take your point if there was some overall acknowledgment of the limitations of their approach(which, as you point out, has failed to assess Ariad's potential from the start),
and, also, if every ambiquity wasn't interpreted in such a skewed fashion.
For example, what competent analyst(one who's generally familiar with the cml field) could concur for a second with the idea that Bosulif could become a preferred front-line therapy in cml? Assuming they know enough to realize how unlikely that is, you would expect more than an endorsement of such an idea(despite the minor qualification), when they should be more seriously questioning their survey methodology.
Or they're failure to acknowledge the distinct liklihood that Iclusig(Ponatinib) will surpass the 50% MMR threshold in EPIC(with eveything they should know about it's previous performance), not to mention totally ignoring it's other obvious(and very likely) applications.
In view of the above, I, apart from some sort of "make work" motivation, have to ask myself why they compiled this voluminous document at all, except as some sort of sophisticated monument to obliviousness.
And, although I will agree that it's both futile and faulty to look for conspiracies around every corner, I also believe the odds of such go up preciptously as the economic implications mount.
Therefore, since this "report" is (despite it's marginal qualifications) so negatively skewed regarding all areas of ambiguity(as well as some that are not so ambiguous), and literally billions of dollars are at stake in the cml market alone(not to mention all the other markets that are likely to be addressed by Ponatinib competitor TKIs), and, on the basis of their knowledge of the cml and biopharma market, these "analysts" had to know better,
I find it nearly impossible to believe there wasn't(in this case) some overriding agenda from the outset.
Best,
bw
Well of course they could(assuming Harvey concludes that,
since we are talking about an entirely different area of specialization, some form of collaboration wouldn't violate his dictum concerning no more partnerships)-
I noted as much in post#32189...
Since they really have much too much to do just in oncology, it would only make sense.
But, as usual, these things are always subject to that meeting of minds necessary to determine fair value both of services rendered & delivered,
and, in view of Harvey's hx, if any agreement is struck, I'll be very curious to see at what price.
But I'm not holding my breath...
Very funny Glass,
Unfortunately(or not), we don't see a lot of bartering activity in biopharma.
Nevertheless, I'm hoping that Pona turns out to be "the chocolate" in all sorts of peanut butter...
Regards,
bw
I would assume they're at least doing preclinicals, if only because the potential applications are just too enormous to ignore.
In any event, having the best in class BBB penetrating TKI may prove to be useful on a number of fronts in the future...
More M&A Speculation may have been(a big)part of this equation today:
https://bay170.mail.live.com/default.aspx?id=64855&rru=inbox#n=840327249&rru=inbox&fid=1&mid=53f5354c-eb32-11e2-b9d7-001cc4eda78c&fv=1
Beautiful...
Thanks Jan-love your charts.
Yes, a retest is the next thing to expect, and although I realize that the volume today could be better, and we do need a successful retest(if it occurs),
at this early a point in the new quarter, and, after the extent of the consolidation we've already seen, not to mention the myriad fundamental catalysts that may materialize at any moment,
my "gut" tells me this is it!
i.e. I'd bet on it(and I have)!!!
Best regards,
bw
I think a better way to think about it, is that it has looked all day like the sma200(at about 20, plus the longstanding resistance at 19.60) was going to be breached and held today(on decent volume).
Technically, that suggests that the longstanding downtrend is finally over, and even just the reaction of some quant trading could explain the bump on that basis...
But when you add in the new highs in the IBB(biotech sector), and the general(risk on) frothiness of the market in general(and, yes, the nervousness of at least a few shorts),
this is what you get.
Despite the exogenous nature of these factors, however, this is how trend changes often(if not usually)begin.
Was expected...
And of course, happy to see it!
Any comparative data on the ability of Ponatinib to cross the BB barrier vs other TKIs?
Regards,
bw
"Coiled Spring" eom
I don't really agree.
I think many people here(particularly at this valuation level) are being a little too pessimistic.
Despite Ariad's inability to break through the sma200 and the resistance at 19.60(previous issuance value), we haven't seen a rapid deterioration from the merger buzz, unlike we've seen so often recently.
I think the reason has to do with the fact that the reality of the successful launch is sinking in, and a tacit upward revaluation has taken place, and, like others, including myself have noted, all we're waiting for here is some catalyst(any catalyst) to get us over this last hurdle to effectively defeat the longstanding downtrend once and for all,
so that an enduring(though choppy)uptrend can emerge.
In other words, I think we're looking at the last death spurts of a 3+month consolidation, which may take us briefly back into the 18s, but not beyond, with a real reversal not far off.
This of course involves all the usual caveats about the overall sector, market and world not imploding, but other than those, I don't think holders have much to worry about.
Well since it's been estimated(not sure where I heard this) that approx. 50% of Alk+ NSCLC (crizotinib) failures are associated with brain mets,
that would represent a major negative for the Chugai drug in any second line competition with Ariad's 113,
which has demonstrated very strong efficacy in that area.
Would seem to be the reason Ariad has decided to highlight that advantage by specifically designating an additional Ph2 cohort for the treatment of progressive Alk+ NSCLC exhibiting brain mets.
That's fine if you want a board that primarily regurgitates the same information over and over again.
If a new stockholder wants information about the company, he can review the threads he's interested in, and follow them back so he's less likely to ask questions that have already been answered, or make points that have already been beaten to death.
It's the same old story on boards or anywhere else. If you want a quality product(my preference, because I want good posters to be attracted to this site), everyone has to do a little work...
Technical Footnote:
I believe another factor that our short term fate depends upon(i.e. that will effect our ability to get and stay above the sma200(20.25) and the previous offering price(19.60)), is the ability of the IBB to stay above the sma50(176.25).
This will tell us, among other things, if the recent focus on biopharma M&A is going to become an enduring and catalyzing theme,
or whether it's just a blip, and biotech as a sector really has topped out.
Let me go on record that it's my belief biotech still has further to go, and that the market is telling us both that that is the case, and that Ariad, in holding almost all of yesterday's gain, is starting to be recognized as a comer that will resume an upward trajectory in the near future!
So much for "tempting the gods" lol...
But the constant is that you, as a shareholder, would, at some point in the process, get $50/share of value, whether it's in cash, or other securities, etc., which you could then exchange for cash.
Sure would like to see a close above 19.60(last issuance price).
Would take at least that monkey off our back, as well as chastening the shorts(who's boldness the last month contributed materially to us staying up here better than just about any other ONXX riders).
IMO, the next step would be to get up above the previous high(20.32)and stay there with authority(via EU approval?
- Again, I think concern over the impact of EU approval is playing a role in our holding most of the move.)-
this would terminate the downtrend, and set the stage for a protracted new build...
"Let us pray..." lol
I don't like being the bear on this board, in terms of valuation, and it's really not so much a matter of what I see to be the long term value of the company(which should be a lot higher than $50 at today's dilution),
but in today's market environment, even getting to 50 would very likely involve another swoon like the one we are just climbing out of.
Therefore, if we aren't sold, the ride to 50 would, IMO, warrant some partial sales considerations along the way, and,
if we were, although I would feel a little short changed, I'd also take "solace" in the realization that I got 50 without the waiting and endured volatility that I could then reinvest in other ops when the inevitable dips materialized.
I guess the worst part would be having to do all that research to identify another company or two that I felt warranted my current degree of confidence in Ariad.
Since I'm interested in doing other things in life, the luxury of my assurance here has allowed a degree of laziness that I probably couldn't justify until I achieved that.
In any case, I'm still of the opinion that the entire topic is probably academic in so much as I believe Harvey means what he says.
However, I'm more than happy to have the price bid up on speculation that he doesn't lol!
Re Ariad...
The primary question for me is how sustainable is that attention?
Is this going to fade quickly, or rather, are we at the beginning of a sustained increase in pps related to an ongoing M&A bidding cycle?
Best regards,
bw