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I got greedy and put in a sell order for a portion of my holdings at 02, should have placed it around 017 or 018. Hopefully I won't end up regretting it next week. This feels an awful lot like that run 11 or 12 Friday's ago to 007 only to fall back to 003. I locked in profits that time unlike nearly all the posters are on the board.
Price still remains pretty strong this week. This is the third week in a row where I have been surprised by the price strength. Looks like people are buying in anticipation of some big news.
That said, 7th week of no news. Get excited for next week: looks like it is either make it or break it. I know what happens if the news is major: we go up. What happens if there is no news, do we go down?
50 cents would put the market cap north of $60 million. $1 would put it north of $122 million and $150 would put it north of $180 million.
It ain't happening. I'll bet you $100 that ain't even with a reverse merger announcement.
Sure enough. Today it even retracted pretty nicely to.
Do you think it needs to go back and fill the 011-012 gap that was created this morning?
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=89662896
Depends on if they have money, IMO. I think stopping filing was probably the right financial decision in the long run (although it screws us investors out of information). It's takes a bunch of money for a company whose gross revenue is going to be under $400-500K w/o the production company to get stuff audited and filed for a K. Being public was a bad decision at their size.
And, re price trend: depends on where you are holding from: we're finally getting back to the prices that we had price to mid-March. So that uptrend has been for the last 4 or so months. I've taken full advantage of it, as have others .
Great talking to ya'.
Great to hear your opinion. So you think we're actually going to see a filing? That's where you would get the quarterly numbers from, no? They skipped the 3rd quarter filing (it was due in mid-May) and right on their Investor Center website it says,
Just to be clear: we have no information whatsoever that signifies Vidaroo has been bought or is owned by SkyNet. In fact, they just renewed their Nevada filing just last week. Any comments to the contrary is just pure speculation.
Re Narrowcast: Vidaroo provides reseller/affiliate services - just like web hosting sellers. Check out their affiliate page at https://vidaroo.com/affiliate . That's probably what's going on. I used to have some links to some of the church groups that were doing reselling of Vidaroo's services (under their own name), but I'm not really quite sure what I did with them.
Or, it could not even be using Vidaroo. Look at the videos on the right side of that page: they are Vimeo videos.
Sure, it could, if there is some major announcement. Notice how the stock price has moved for the past two weeks: it's been basically based on small traders buying it up in anticipation of a press release. The sellers are people selling in 500K to 1.5 million share chunks. It's going to be interesting to see what happens if a PR doesn't come out next week (that's what I expect). I'm thinking this PR doesn't come out (again I could be wrong, but I've got to play to my gut and to my own feeling of risk reward) and we'll get some revaluing of the stock price after that.
Like I said, I advise locking profits on the spikes (like someone did today today - they are selling 1.5 million shares at .015 - what do they know that we don't?), because it will eventually retrace. There were two other 500K blocks sold today too. I know people that bought VIDA at 25 cents. I sold out at 35 cents and waited on the sidelines for it to collapse back into the 04-05 area. Meanwhile, those folks still holding from 25 cents are so far under water today (and I know there are still holders) that they cannot even look at the stock.
I'll post any executions I do - as I have been doing for the last 4 years . I'll probably lock in some profit around 2 cents if we make it back up there, but I just have to see what the momentum looks like.
Agree with you, just like I did earlier in the week . It certainly seems that way - seems to be all in anticipation of PR that has been expected for the last 7 weeks.
I would love to see PR and see the stock go to 5 or 10 cents (I'll make a nice chunk of change), but as I have said I'm very cynical that that's going happen. Let's pay close attention next week to see if this PR from VIDA comes out.
Re NarrowCast (I guess the rebranding of Mahala TV, maybe?):
Vidaroo provides reseller/affiliate services - just like web hosting sellers. Check out their affiliate page at https://vidaroo.com/affiliate . That's probably what's going on. I used to have some links to some of the church groups that were doing reselling of Vidaroo's services, but I'm not really quite sure what I did with them.
Or, it could not even be using Vidaroo. Look at the videos on the right side of that page: they are Vimeo videos.
Retracing pretty fast, guess it was too much of a gap. RSI was pretty high in the power zone too (up in the 80s). Man, I should have locked in profits up in the .018 area. Got a little too greedy and put my order at 02. Probably would have been able to buy back in pretty quickly with my spare cash too. Oh well, live and learn.
EDIT: Wonder if we will go back and fill the gap between today's open and Wednesday's close.
There is another 500K block on the ask, plus there were some AoN on there too. So more than 500K at 0189. Pretty interesting to see it get chewed through so fast.
Getting to the point where it's too rich for my blood. Lining up my sell orders - I'll let you know where I execute.
EDIT: Looks like the a seller finally chased the bid.
EDIT2: And he's still chasing...
EDIT3: Man, chased it all the way down to 016.
EDIT4: Looks like a buyer keeps trying to ask whack it back up with 10K executions. Probably a sign we need to retrace a little bit.
EDIT5: Definitely retracting. One or two sellers keep on battling with each other to lower the ask.
Today it was 1.5 million based on what I saw. Biggest block yet from the last three weeks. 1.5 million at .015=$22,500
Someone's locking in profits at 015. It's been happening nearly every day for the last two or three weeks: right before lunch a block of 500K to 1.5 million shares goes on the market at the ask. usually they chase down the bid as we get further into the day, this is the first time people are really buying into that block so quickly in the last couple of weeks.
Quite interesting to watch.
1. I don't think I've said that it was going to return to the 003-006 price channel in the last month. Rather, what I've said is I think the stock is overvalued based on currently public information and that I won't be buying until it's back at 006 or below.
2. As I have said for the last several weeks: I've been quite surprised by the strength of the price. The price has largely been manipulated for the past 6 weeks and it seems to be moving up on low volume based on pure speculation (particularly after that week of t-trades ended) about some big PR has been supposedly coming for the last 7 weeks.
So, in short, I don't think the price is going to settle back where it is supposed to be (which is probably more like right around 006 based on current valuations) until all of this Mahala speculation is done and gone. As I have been saying: I think a lot of this Mahala stuff is just a red herring that is distracting from Vidaroo's core business (I guess that makes me in the extreme minority here). I could be wrong, but we'll see. Notice how the stock price has moved for the past two weeks: it's been basically based on small traders buying it up in anticipation of a press release. The sellers are people selling in 500K to 1.5 million share chunks. It's going to be interesting to see what happens if a PR doesn't come out next week (that's what I expect). I'm thinking this PR doesn't come out (again I could be wrong, but I've got to play to my gut and to my own feeling of risk reward) and we'll get some revaluing of the stock price after that.
Like I said, I advise locking profits on the spikes (like someone is doing today - they are selling 1.5 million shares at .015 - what do they know that we don't?), because it will eventually retrace. I know people that bought VIDA at 25 cents. I sold out at 35 cents and waiting on the sidelines. Meanwhile, those folks still holding from 25 cents are so far under water today (and I know there are still holders) that they cannot even look at the stock.
Exactly - it's not free, it's just like any other payment processing system (credit card, wallet, payment portal, or QR - regardless of type of payment processing system).
Mahala is not free -we've already covered this. There is a transaction fee on Mahala Merchant - just like Google Wallet and PayPal - and there is probably going to be a cost for Mahala TV or Mahala Narrowcast or whatever it is being called these days. What we want to know is how are these reveneues going to be divided between SkyNet and Vidaroo. Go do some DD on that.
Sure, it will probably go up tomorrow on pure speculation and light volume - just like it has for the last week. If anyone wants to sell, however, they have to chase the bid - like we've seen multiple times over the last 3 weeks.
All I'm saying is I want to see how this benefits Vidaroo. Show me the darn numbers - where are the filings, where are the actually details. I've only been asking for them for nearly 3 months now. Vidaroo skipped the 3rd quarter filing so we didn't get any details. Plus they are late on all of their Florida renewals and SkyNet is late on all of their Delaware renewals.
As far as Mahala - we have no idea what their staff looks like, if they have added, decreased, or stayed stable. And we still don't know the full extent beyond Mahala TV (or Mahala Narrowcast or whatever it's being called today) that it is going to use Vidaroo. But, honestly, I don't care how Mahala uses Vidaroo: I want to know how much it cost Vidaroo to prepare the technology for Mahala's use and what revenue growth is it going to lead to. Those the are exact questions I've been asking since this whole thing was announced. It's not a question of how profitable is it going to be, but rather a question of is it even going to generate any revenue and is the revenue it is going to generate actually going to offset expenses. I care about the long term viability of the company now that the 4-6 year start-up cycle is coming to an end, not some short-term pop in the stock price (although I will profit from it nonetheless because I actually lock in profits) - that's the difference between me and you. I've been in and out of Vidaroo for 4 years and I'll be continue to be in it til the end.
Not to my knowledge, Vidaroo provides reseller/affiliate services - just like web hosting sellers. Check out their affiliate page at https://vidaroo.com/affiliate . That's probably what's going on. I used to have some links to some of the church groups that were doing reselling of Vidaroo's services, but I'm not really quite sure what I did with them.
Or, it could not even be using Vidaroo. Look at the videos on the right side of that page: they are Vimeo videos.
Thank you veilside67r1 for linking to what I've been hinting at all along: Mahala won't be free, it will have transactions fees. Now, here is the thing: that 2.39% + 20 cent transaction fee probably goes almost entirely to First Data rather than to SkyNet, so the revenues are going to be rather slim, at best. First Data isn't providing their services for free after all (it's just another payment processor, just like PayPal). So, then the argument becomes: why should I use Mahala when I already have PayPal QR, PayConnect, or some other already established product. So, as I have been saying, there are a half dozen plus other QR systems out there so the barriers to entry are extremely high for their to actually be profitability.
But, here is where is gets even more troublesome for me: I doubt Vidaroo will get any of the profit from the transactions. Why? But the razor thin margins left after First Data takes their transaction cut will be earmarked for Mahala to cover their expenses. Those venture capitalists will want their investment back after all.
So, where will Vidaroo probably get its revenue? Probably ads - as other have argued. My guess is the network effects of Mahala won't be large enough to generate enough economies of scale so that ad revenue will be enough to offset the costs its going to cost Vidaroo for the R&D they have already put out and the operational costs of serving up the video. Vidaroo has gone down the advertising route before and there wasn't enough traffic to justify it so they went away from it and started the subscription model. I imagine their web views are even less now given the loss of Emmis and the production side of the house, plus the cost per view and per click has gone down since Vidaroo was last in the ad market due to the spread of various internet web channels. So, I sure hope Mahala has some sort of enterprise subscription that is providing guaranteed revenues.
As I've said, I think Mahala is a red herring, I'm unimpressed with the product, and I really don't like the business model. The amount of pumping that has gone on for it when it has such limited exposure should raise the caution flag to any outside observer. I just hope Vidaroo is doing something to protect its interests because I like Vidaroo and I hope when the dusts settles from this Mahala distraction, we'll be able to get a better sense of what Vidaroo is doing. I would love to be wrong (the moves some people are predicting here in the stock price would be a nice house down payment for me) but I'm not counting on it.
I'm gambling that we don't see PR directly from Vidaroo this week or next week, so we go down when the weak hands decide to sell out next Friday. I haven't seen anything to validate these valuations other than speculation about some PR that has been expected for 7 weeks now. But that's just me - I'm in the extreme minority here. If we do see PR and it has positive substance rather than fluff, then sure .03-.05 seems possible in the short term.
Who knows what our big seller is selling for - perhaps he just wants money.
As for me and why I chose to lock in profits at the levels I did:
Considering I've been saying it's a real company for four years with a real product, I don't disagree. Being a real product isn't the issue - it's whether it's a profitable product that can return value to the shareholders. I disagree with the valuation. As I have posted before numerous times, I believe Vidaroo is overvalued at these levels given the level of information available to me. and I also beleive this Mahala stuff is a red herring distracting from Vidaroo.
Therefore, I refuse to buy at these levels. That's the risk-reward choice I've made. And, I've also stated here before that I am not investing in any other OTC companies and have not been for the last 2-3 years. Why: because when the big boards can return 20%+ a year with far less risk, then that's the place I like to be. I've been in Vidaroo for so long (as I have, yet again, posted here before) because it is a local company with some folks that I personally know.
Certainly seems that way, our big seller started out today with about 800K shares and is down to about 250K so unless he wants to chase, the trend does look like it's going to continue.
I sold and locked in profit on some shares at 0065, 0095, and 009 (I think the average price for those sales was just below 0088) and I'm still holding others. I am still looking to buy at 006 and below as I think Vidaroo stock price has been manipulated for the last 7 weeks and to me the risk far outweighs the possible rewards when it comes to buying at these prices.
Sorry you don't like the reality of what's going on with Vidaroo: late Florida registrations, late SkyNet registrations, no filings, no PRs, low volume, etc. but, I prefer to have full disclosure as to what's going on rather than just having fluff.
Experienced traders don't assume RM when the A/S gets expanded 4x plus all the other happenings.
Vidaroo is down to 5 employees and the Chairman, CEO and CFO positions have been consolidated into one person. The Board has only 4 people on it. The company has moved to a tiny suite back in Altamonte. They are late on all of their Florida filings. They were late on their Nevada filings. They have stopped filing with the SEC. And, they expanded their A/S x4.5 without providing notice.
All of these are signs that they are out of cash and basically working to break-even. You know what else it's a sign of? They are at the end of the start-up cycle and they are content just with monetizing their product that took 6 years to develop. When you cut down your staff from upwards of 20 folks to 5 folks, it means you are no longer worried about high growth and are more worked about incremental revenue. I.E. it means they are working on the assumption they are going to stay small.
That's my two cents.
Could be, could be. It's really a lot of the same odd things that have been going on the last 7 weeks here at VIDA. You sometime see the same things going on at the ask: 10K orders hitting the ask and not impacting the ask volume.
I've generally learned you cannot fight these odd things - all you can do is complain and just go with your gut as to how to trade.
This doesn't prove anything. It's a PR that's over 3 months old that just warm and fuzzy language. We would need a filing to show that revenues are actually increasing. Vidaroo had had both in-house and contract sales people in the past - that didn't lead to rapid expansion. We need numbers to actually prove revenue growth is happening.
It's because AON orders don't appear as part of the ask or bid size volume. I generally don't buy the theory that MMs engage in widespread manipulation - I guess that makes me the odd man out here - because the SEC heavily regulates their actions. I'm not denying that front-running may occur but I don't think it is nearly as widespread as folks on IHub like to claim.
Smart traders would not do that. Why? Because it will gap again. Gapping = no bueno, it has to retrace each time. Selling in small chunks is advisable, but completely cancelling orders is silly.
On the issue of whether this is intentional: of course it is, someone wants to sell - they've been selling for over 2 weeks and the stock has been manipulated for going on 7 weeks. It isn't MMs, it's just traders. MMs do what their clients tell them to do.
Gapped at .011 x .015, probably going back down. Already retraced to .011 x .0144.
Thank you for your kind words, and great points - you could be right. My understanding, however, is most of the staff reductions were caused by splitting out the production firm. The a lot of the production side folks (include the three executives that resigned) are still at the Winter Garden location under a new company (search on SunBiz for their names and you'll find their new company). Some of the programmers they had were also temps, and because most of the development is done there wasn't a need to keep them on. I think at this point product development is largely just happening using short sprints using the SCRUM model.
All I'm urging is caution. And, like you, I'm still maintaining my limited position after locking in profits at 0065, 0095, and 009. Several other traders are doing the same thing (as much as they will publicly deny my methods don't make sense).
Experienced traders don't assume RM when the A/S gets expanded 4x plus all the other happenings.
Vidaroo is down to 5 employees and the Chairman, CEO and CFO positions have been consolidated into one person. The Board has only 4 people on it. The company has moved to a tiny suite back in Altamonte. They are late on all of their Florida filings. They were late on their Nevada filings. They have stopped filing with the SEC. And, they expanded their A/S x4.5 without providing notice.
All of these are signs that they are out of cash and basically working to break-even. You know what else it's a sign of? They are at the end of the start-up cycle and they are content just with monetizing their product that took 6 years to develop. When you cut down your staff from upwards of 20 folks to 5 folks, it means you are no longer worried about high growth and are more worked about incremental revenue. I.E. it means they are working on the assumption they are going to stay small.
That's my two cents.
They are late. Filings in Florida were due 4/31/2013. Below are the following names you can search on Sunbiz and see. A late filing for a corporation costs something like 78.75 + a 500 late fee. For the LLCs it costs $538.75 to file late. So instead of only costing about $500 to file if filed on time, it's going to cost over $2,000 to file late.
VIDAROO CORPORATION
VIDAROO INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY, INC.
VIDAROO LICENSING, LLC
VIDAROO SUPPORT SERVICES, LLC
To file in Nevada late, it cost like $1,000 (which Vidaroo did).
Same message I had last week: I'm pleasantly surprised at the resiliency of the stock price, but I'm not adding. Good luck to you on the play.
And, they are all late on their Florida filings...is that what you meant to post?
Agreed, agreed. My guess is we don't get any news this week due to the shortened trading week but I could be wrong. I wouldn't be surprised if we don't get a press release next week either - in fact, that's really what I've been thinking is going to happen for the last 6-7 weeks or so. I think a lot of this Mahala hype is coming from the Mahala team rather than from Vidaroo. It remains to be seen how any of it benefits Vidaroo and putting out a PR would just be another cost for Vidaroo at a point where they probably aren't receiving any revenue from all of the Mahala stuff (i.e. I think Mahala has probably cost Vidaroo more than they have gained thusfar).
Could be, certainly looks to be continuing the upward trend in PPS. No denying that, that's for sure. I'm just never a fan of upward movements on thin volume because it means there is an inequity in the market. In this case, it looks like there is a lack of sellers. So the question becomes why is there a lack of sellers:
1. Is the price of the stock really underpriced? Could be, that's what many here are arguing;
2. Are many of the shares restricted from sale? That does account for a lot of the inability to move because most of O/S is owned by insiders on warrants and options; or,
3. Are there a lack of sellers because of anticipation of something? I think this is also in play. Lets hope whatever they are anticipating happens so we can continue the uptrend - but, my fear is that what they are anticipating happening (i.e. something big with Mahala) isn't going to happen or is just a red herring in the short term.
Just got to be cautious here with our ear to the ground .