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Well said. We do tend to be happy or unhappy about an investment based solely on where the share price is compared to our entry price. But even when you're up on paper, until you've sold for a profit you have no cause to celebrate. Bio stocks are volatile, and timing is very difficult to nail. Where your investment is headed in the future is not _at all_ influenced by what it's done so far, in stocks like this.
This 'range' is very attractive for this company, even +/- 50%. Unless you are trading or looking for short-term profits, just keep an eye on the news/progress and hold or sell based on facts and probabilities. IMO, the odds on KTOV seeing a 200% rise in the next 12-24 months is very very high.
They filed it too soon.. .there were ineligible as it had not been 12 months. So they withdrew it and subsequently re-filed as soon as they were allowed. Kinda silly mistake on their part, really.
While surprising (they have $$ on-hand), and a little annoying (short-term), this doesn't change anything for me. I'm long on RDHL. Like 5-10 more years long.
There is very, very little doubt this company is worth more than the market cap they have today, based ONLY on the 1 drug for which they're about to submit an NDA. They have successfully completed all clinical trials, arranged and completed all manufacturing and stability tests, and have a healthy patent protection for it. The only remaining question is how successful they can be in selling the drug when (not "if".. as it's a forgone conclusion IMO) the drug hits the shelves.
IMO, there is every likelihood this drug does annual sales equivalent to the current market cap, and a good chance it will do 5x or more than that.
How can they turn this into value for their shareholders? IMO, an acquisition would be best/cleanest. But they may simply license it and take a high % royalties, or they may even to at it alone (?).
From where I'm standing, all 3 scenarios will yield at least a 3x gain in share price over the next couple of years. With plenty more upside if they are acquired IMO.
Yes, keep being patient.
Thinking seriously about ramping up my position in RESN lately. They have created so much momentum over the past year since losing the market's confidence, that success seems almost inevitable. I have to imagine the up-front and milestone payments alone can help carry them a little further before a licensing royalties start coming in from one of their designs gets integrated into production devices. 6 customers, over 10 (?) designs ... it would take only one of these at even modest volumes to turn the company profitable, but the potential upside is well over 5x more than that IMO.
Nothing but good news from this company. That's how to build a multi-Bn dollar specialty pharma ... slow and steady.
If an early stop is called for in Q2, we may have our first serious run in PPS. But if I'm long anyway, even with setbacks, as they have many candidates in the pipeline...
Completely agree -- it's incredibly encouraging to see the number of licensing deals continue to rise. Recurring licensing fees are imminent for sure. 2017 should be a breakout year for this company.
Depends what you call a while. For a biotech, I'd say there are a few close milestones:
next month:
* top line results from Phase 2a for RHB-104 for MS
within ~6 months:
* interim efficacy results for RHB-104 for Crohn's, with an early stop possibility
* top line Phase 3 results Bekinda for GI
* top line Phase 2 results for Bekinda for IBS-D
And just now I saw they have snuck in a "potential acquisition of certain commercial rights to GI asset currently on the market in the U.S." into their Nov Corporate Presentation as a Q4 milestone.. hadn't seen that before. Of course, that may not move the share price in any particular direction (may even cause it to drop, depending on the terms).
I don't think JB has the slightest ounce of guilt or remorse. He'd convinced even himself that all that he said and did was the truth. But the real truth is that the man should be behind bars. Karma will take care of him, eventually.
a trade!
Also, it's likely, IMO, that a formal and binding buyout offer would only come AFTER the full and final results from the PIII (due any day). Possibly after the NDA approval, too, but that's a foregone conclusion IMO.
Good question. That's one I asked myself when a fellow member of this forum recommended I take a look. I then read all relevant SEC filings since IPO, and read all PRs, looked at all corporate presentations, and a few videos by members of the Kitov management team.
And the only likely answer I came up with was: the market is unaware or impatient. If there is risk, I cannot see it (at least, not very much). If YOU see some risks, please point them out to help your fellow iHub members. I guess selling volume on this stock does not, for me, constitute risk. Not for a clinical stage biotech with a low float, anyway
That's my assumption yes.. that because of the generics that will compete (albeit with a major disadvantage), KIT-302 seems (to me) unlikely to get to Celebrex's peak. But hey.. I'm certainly open to other opinions -- that's why I'm here .. to learn from others.
Maybe their market study, or the research paper by LifeSci Capital, has me tempering my enthusiasm.
In any case, I'm long and very bullish.
Agreed, Pfizer would make a logical buyer, and could likely be more successful with KIT-302 than another buyer, precisely due to the Celebrex brand and sales channels they have. But they'll never see the same peak sales. I would hope for $1.5B from KIT-302 (last year Celebrex sales were ~ $830MM and still dropping). So buying KIT-302 would cannibalize their Celebrex sales, but could double the revenue from it. A net benefit of about $750m annually.
At 4x that benefit, KIT-302 is worth $3B.
All just for fun.. of course I'd be happy with $20/share
Q about risk for the board... at this point the company seems all but guaranteed to file for, and receive approval for, an NDA for KIT-302. Furthermore, all signs point to it achieving significant penetration, once on the market. From my perspective, the little risk that exists in an investment in KTOV at this point is if they partner (vs. sell it) and only achieve very modest sales. But even with modest sales, the current MC is a farce, right?
Has anyone followed another biotech that has achieved all the KIT-302 milestones, and yet NOT gone on to make a commercial success out of it?
Only things I can think of might be:
1. last minute safety concerns -- virtually impossible as both compounds are FDA approved
2. manufacturing issues that cause a major delay -- improbable with their Israeli partner ?
Somebody please wake me... I don't get how I was able to take a position in Kitov at these prices given how advanced they are...
I speculate that management are not in any rush to partner or sell, as they know what they have and would be smart to maximize its value. What's an extra 6-12 months for double the valuation?
The excellent trial results, the forthcoming (and certainly to be approved) NDA, and the market study, all point to a very high probability that KIT-302 will generate peak sales of over $1bn. I therefore 'hope' for a $1bn MC. I realize that's improbable, but it's not inconceivable
$20? I'm hoping for $75 minimum...
Ha you're right. Flaw in my math. The warrants are indeed cheaper than I thought.
Please, nobody buy more until I have.
Unless my math is off, at today's closing prices, the warrants and the ordinaries (ADRs) have the same upside if the PPS only goes to $10. But at $15, the warrants are 25% better, and at $25 KTOVW has over 40% MORE upside than KTOV.
At significantly higher prices than that (entirely possible IMO), the warrants represent about 60% more upside than the normal shares (again, all based on today's prices).
I think I'll continue to accumulate some more KTOVW, tomorrow. And in observance of Yom Kippur, I will repent the sins of the past year's terrible investments, and promise to do better in the year to come.
Odd. A new offering (non-public) was announced today, and since then the Investors section of the company's website is not accessible from the US IP addresses.
Also, the latest SEC filing from today, concerning this raise, states
Partnership for RHB-104 for Crohn's would be my preference, as there is so much upside potential I get giddy.
The rest of the pipeline is also so encouraging. If they keep delivering as they have been, I can see this as a $5bn company in under a decade.
On the conf call, when asked how an early stop in 2Q2017 would affect timelines to NDA, the CEO said:
I also nibbled at the warrants yesterday.
Great!!
I loved Dr. Paul Waymack's closing remarks from the Rodman & Renshaw conf. This says so much. (emphasis matching his intonation )
I initiated a position a few days ago, and just doubled it on today's news. This seems like a fabulous buy and hold.
Thanks @scottsmith for the tip (coming from the RDHL board)!
Seems that significant momentum is growing in the FC industry as a whole, and leaders like Ballard are seeing real traction. This should bode very well for the company in the coming years!
Looks like they inked another licensing agreement with AVANCIS, a BIPV provider recently bought by behemoth CNBM.
http://www.avancis.de/en/press/news/article/premiere-avancis-praesentiert-sein-photovoltaik-modul-skala-fuer-den-gebaeudebereich-cis-modul-fuer-solarfassaden-ist-skalierbar-in-groesse-und-farbe/
Kromatix-clad CIS is featured alongside Apple's HQ as one of "5 solar-powered buildings that will forever change architecture"
http://www.mnn.com/earth-matters/energy/blogs/5-solar-powered-buildings-will-forever-change-architecture
Another agreement with a major manufacturer. Things look increasingly promising for this company!! Seems like it's only a matter of time before they land a large licensing deal.
Post on LinkedIn from the CEO about CIS facade: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/cis-copenhagen-kromatix-facade-rafic-hanbali?trk=prof-post
http://www.altenergymag.com/news/2016/09/09/kaco-new-energy-inc-releases-new-revision-of-ultraverter-lowers-pricing/24572
Are those the white labeled PPSA based inverters?
$6.40 close, very strong. IMO today's announced presentation speaks volumes about their confidence, and will only attract more potential customers. Still waiting for the first shoe to drop, in the form of a licensing deal. Second shoe would be a Q with millions in revenue. Seems increasingly likely this will come to pass.
Great news. This company has so much potential...
Thanks for finding those, it's very encouraging to hear. There has been so little news from the company lately, despite so much anticipation of traction with PPSA and storage projects.
I'm sitting on a 40% loss with IPWR, but it still remains one of my largest positions (although today on a par with RDHL thx to its recent moves).
NEWS -> The Board expects revenues of £3.80 million, up from £0.32 million for the six months to June 2015 (an increase of more than 10 times), in line with revised market expectations for the first half of 2016. Midatech updated its guidance for full year revenue in its 2015 full year results statement following the first three months of 2016, in which it stated that the Company was trading slightly ahead of market expectations.
Whilst it is too early to assess the long-term impact of the UK's decision to leave the European Union, there has been no immediate impact on the Company's day-to-day operations.
Commenting on trading update, Dr Jim Phillips, CEO of Midatech, said: "I am pleased to report that this has been a half of significant commercial progress for the Company with a greater than 10-fold increase in revenue. We have also had numerous positive advances at Midatech including launching Zuplenz® in the US to provide relief from one of the most debilitating side-effects of common cancer treatments, and elsewhere across our oncology product base and exciting pipeline.
"Since revising revenue guidance up earlier in the year we are pleased to expect revenues to be in line with current market expectations and look forward to continued progress in the second half of the year."
Midatech will announce its interim results on 2 September 2016. Dr Jim Phillips, Chief Executive Officer and Nick Robbins-Cherry, Chief Financial Officer, will host a presentation for analysts and conference call at 14:00 BST. Details of the call will be published on the day of the results. The call will be recorded and a replay will be available for 30 days.
ref:
http://otp.investis.com/clients/uk/midatech/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=976&newsid=772249
Big buying peak there. Nice to see. Institutionals getting (back) in?
Extremely solid string of good news on the licensed design front over the past 6 months, with their Tier 1 customer. This bodes very very well for them IMO.
We are way overdue for a formal update....