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That would be nice, especially if the majority of it was buys!
I have a younger brother who also bought some shares of Chemtura after I told him about it. He told me last night that someone on the yahoo message board posted something about Amfine Chemical wanting to buy the Chemtura PVC business, and that apparently they are prepared to make an offer to Chemtura. Any truth to this, anyone heard anything? The yahoo message board is trash, and I imagine this is just another example of the bullcrap that gets posted on that board.
Good question. I suspect the big block buys/sells will continue from here on in. This stock is getting noticed. I think alot of the smaller block trades of the past were just the tutes putting out feelers, testing the waters so to speak. There have been a number of posts about how the tutes have been buying small blocks as opposed to larger ones because of ownership rules and not wanting to do the reports. If that was the case then, it certainly doesn't appear to be true now. The 1 million blocks are indicative of the tutes jumping aboard in a much more aggressive fashion. If this thing pushes up over a buck I think we could see heavy sustained volume for quite some time. Little blocks will become a thing of the past. I expect to see some large blocks traded tommorrow.
I'm hoping for a good start to the week. I think the close Friday will carry into tommorrow. I expect at least a 5% gain at the open. It think we will definitely open above the .78 mark IMO. Later folks!!!!!!!!!!!
Stock charts may or may not be a useful tool depending on who you ask. There are no guarantees as to what a stock will do in the future, however stock charts through the use of technical analysis are an invaluable tool at spotting short term trends. Buying and selling is all relative to timing. Knowing when to get in and when to get out is what separates the winners from the losers. Charts are one of those investor tools that not everyone knows how to use, and often get overlooked. I myself am really lousy at reading the charts, however I know others who are very good at it. Charts are very good in my opinion at signalling when a trend has begun. They are also very good at showing you when that trend has begun to reverse itself. If you are able to read these signs I believe charts are a legitimate tool which can assist you in timing your buys and sells properly, however charts don't provide anyone with guarantees, they only give you an idea of what a stock has been doing and what it most likely will do in the short term. The company itself will always be the best barometer of where it's share price is going. Knowing about how a company has conducted business in the past, and how it is currently conducting itself, as well as it's future business prospects, will always be the best indicators for the investor, it's called "Due Diligence".
Caught some nice cutthroats yesterday. Going back out in awhile, but I thought I'd look in on the board before heading out. The million + traded around closing Friday was fantastic! It appears that Chemtura is getting more and more exposure everyday, but not the exposure I'd like to see. There's been many posts on this board about what impact the $1 mark will have on the PPS. One thing that hasn't been mentioned I believe is the impact that a $1 share price will have on analysts. Chemtura has been practically void of analyst coverage since chapter 11. Generally speaking I think analysts are more often wrong than they are right, however they serve an important role in drawing attention to particular stock. As a rule penny stocks generally don't get covered by the analysts, however in the case of Chemtura it's quite conceivable and also quite possible that we will see an exception. Once Chemtura climbs over the $1 mark I think we might get more attention from the analysts. It's possible that once we hit the $1 mark a few of the bigger financial firms may decide to initiate coverage on Chemtura, thus giving it much more exposure than it currently has. This would be huge. As much as we need news, we also need a means to draw more attention to this stock. It's a foregone conclusion that an asset sale, debt refinancing etc. will have an immense effect on the PPS, but if a greater number the of analysts who dropped coverage on us when we went into bankruptcy, decide once again to initiate coverage on Chemtura I think it will seal the deal. Positive analyst coverage will be a huge contributor to getting the PPS to where we all want it to be. Perhaps I am overstating the importance of these guys, but you can't dispute the fact that stock ratings do have an effect on the PPS, and once more analysts climb on board we are likely to see increased momentum in the PPS for Chemtura.
Enjoy the rest of your weekend fellas. I'm off to one of my favorite little trout streams for a little late afternoon fly action. Hope Monday starts the week out with some positive action, because I got an order in for another 10K. GLTA and buy...buy...buy....!!!!!!!
Tough question. Personally I think Rogerson and company give more attention to the PPS than people think, although it's down there on the list of things to worry about. Do I believe Rogerson and the folks want this relisted, yes. Do I think they want to see it happen as soon as conceivably possible, yes. It cost will cost them to get relisted and after reaching the $1 mark they will have to meet listing requirements. Someone posted awhile back that Chemtura could not relist while in bankruptcy, that's not true. As important as it is to exit from bankruptcy as quickly as possible, it is also important to get your company relisted as quickly as possible after implementing your plan for reorganization. The benefits of doing so far outweigh the negatives in my opinion. Relistment draws attention to them, but gives them leverage in future refinancing negotiations. The stronger this company looks the better. I don't think relisting will happen though for Chemtura until after the POR is put forth. Right now I don't believe they want to see this thing climb too fast, too quickly. I think they want to see this climb little by little so that when POR time comes around the PPS will have stayed steadily above $1 for at least a month, which meets an important part of the listing requirements.
I might add one point about the commons. A share price of $5 a year from now isn't necessarily dependent open the survival of the current issue of commons. I have faith that the current issue of commons will survive, and that these same shares will be $5 plus a year from now, because other than a weak economy there is nothing to stop what has been put in motion. As unlikely I think it is at this point there is however that scenario where the current existing issue of shares get cancelled and new shares are issued at a much higher price, and then given to creditors in a debt for equity exchange. Old or new, it's my belief that whichever shares emerge from bankruptcy, they will undoubtedly continue towards the $5 mark, which like I said we will see in no more than a year from now. The economy is the only question mark for Chemtura right now, aside from this I don't see anything to hold the PPS back right now. Chemtura has put too many good things in place for the PPS not to grow. Personally I believe the current issues will survive. These shares will climb over a $1 and Chemtura will seek relisting for this particular issue of shares. After meeting NYSE requirements these shares will once again be traded on the NYSE. Whatever shares are available for trading after Chemtura emerges from chapter 11 will continue to increase in value, unless some crazy event forces Chemtura in chapter 7, but that's highly unlikely. I'm liking my odds right how, and anxiously await to see what's in the POR a few months from now, until then up...up...up and away!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Yahoo board = Ringling Bros drama. That board is a joke!
I haven't been around this board that long, however I've read a good many of the posts written for this board. They are very informative and don't include alot of speculation, though occasionally someone posts a prediction. I know you all aren't much for predictions, but nonetheless I'm going to put forward a short, but somewhat bold outlook on where I think we will be a year from now. I'll keep it very short.
"A year from now, maybe a little less, we will be sitting on shares that are worth $5 plus"! I'll give you 6 short reasons:
1. Chemtura will continue to be profitable month after month.
2. Institutional investment will have returned in full force.
3. All immediate debt concerns will have either been renegotiated or paid off. No more worries about the bonds or DIP financing.
4. Plan of Reorganization confirms commons will stay intact.
5. Demand for Chemtura products grow due to an improving overall economy.
6. Chemtura exits bankruptcy smoothly and on time with a much improved business model.
Chemtura was roughly a $7 stock a little less than a year ago. When we finally exit bankruptcy we won't recognize this company. Like I mentioned previously there will be no more bonds to worry about, the DIP financing will have been taken care of, along with the interest, attorney fees will have been paid in full, we'll have better supply contracts and profitability will be sustained due to a superior business plan. They'll be no comparisons to pre bankruptcy problems. With all these improvements reaching $5 from where we are now won't be all that difficult. Is there risk/reward, you bet, but it's in our favor based on what happpening with this company right now. Stay long!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
CEMJQ was almost a $7 stock less than a year ago. Shrinking equity due to economic factors and poor management drove them into bankruptcy, not the lack of profitability. Ask yourself where would this company be now if they had not declared bankruptcy and given themselves time to correct their problems? Months prior to filing chapter 11 the share price was in a downward spiral, because investors weren't feeling good about Chemtura's chances of paying off their debt obligations in time. The price tanked because investors knew the likelihood of bankruptcy was increasing, however these same investors knew that this wasn't going to be your typical bankruptcy. Those who followed this company knew it was a viable company and that it essentially went into bankruptcy to renegotiate a "small" portion of it's overall debt. Like I mentioned Chemtura isn't your typical bankrupt company and investors know that. If you were an investor in this company prior to chapter 11 you knew why Chemtura went into bankruptcy, however you probably were left with no choice other than to sell your shares when bankrutpcy was on the horizon. The PPS movements of this stock are no surprise only five months after chapter 11. Investors knew it was essentially a good company prior to BK, and have gotten back in so quickly after filing chapter 11 because they know Chemtura is going to be a better company when they exit bankruptcy then it was before going into bankruptcy. If you knew your shares were headed south you undoubted would have sold them, however you would probably consider buying them back if you knew they would inevitably go back up once the dust settled. That's what happening now, the optimism waned for a short period, though it was never truly gone, just hibernating, now it's back. When Chemtura went into bankruptcy investors became much like hunters whom have run out of ammo. Chemtura was always in their sights, they were just waiting to reload.
Isn't that called insider trading? I'm not naive to think it doesn't happen, but it would we nice this think the PPS is going north on it's own merit, and not because someone knows something, but either way in all honesty I'm happy to be making a little "jingle" off this one!
This one might be a reach but what do you guys think about this scenario?
"Rogerson and company already have a solution to the bonds and DIP. They are content to sit on the sidelines and watch the PPS tick towards the $1 mark. They're content sitting back and watching as more and more investors again become interested in this stock, and drive it over $1, and them "wham", news of a debt solution is released and the stock launches way over the $1 mark, and continues to do so right up to the filing of the POR, and then shortly thereafter Chemtura meets the listing requirements for the NYSE and they get relisted. Rogerson and company collect their hefty bonuses, and everyones happy". I told you it might be a reach, but not out of the realm of possibility.
One word, "expectation"!
I think there will be a retrace on the way to dollar land in the mid .90's. Their getting out a little too early, IMO!
This 1.5 hours to go but I expect to see a .78 close!
One dollar is coming, however on the way I think we will have another short pullback between .94 -.96, then it's smooth sailing to $1+.
I'll second that!
I don't recall anything of significance either. Maybe someone else can shed some light on this. I think investors were trading on sheer optimism at this time. Generally after the dust settles after filing chapter 11 there is a spike, maybe that's what happened. I agree that the move didn't seem to be propelled by news, though I have my suspicions about other things which I won't share.
Choo....Choo!!!!DollarLand Express, all a.....board!!!!
April and May are what brought the 2nd quarter down. June showed a profit and the consensus was that July would be better. I believe this was the period that investors really started to show confidence in Rogerson and company, therefore the jumps were attributed to trading sentiment and optimism. If your investing in a BK company your probably hoping for a quick PPS jump, that occured when investors felt Chemtura had reached a turning point.
The tree is being shakin hard, hold strong. Those who bought the big blocks yesterday and today aren't selling, they want more, and hope they can bluff the weak hands into folding. Don't give in, this is going higher!
I agree! It's my belief that an asset sale is close to being finalized, if not already a done deal, and once the PPS hits a $1 we'll hear about it. This might be a reach but I think Rogerson and company could possibly already have something in place, but are waiting for the $1 mark and for "more tutes" to get aboard before releasing the PR!
Posted by: srq4964 Date: Friday, August 28, 2009 8:52:18 AM
In reply to: goforthebet who wrote msg# 33979 Post # of 34100
actually I wouldn't mind if it retrenched in the begginning and then ran up. if it starts out too strong it probably will hit profit taking later in the day.
better question, if it does back down what would be a entry point????
just thinking out loud
"This makes alot of sense, buy now"!
In the economic mess that we are currently in I believe "tutes" don't that the stomach for risk that they once had. If the economy was much better off than it is, I believe a far greater number of them would have entered this stock under a dollar, however they choose to sit on the sidelines until the time came where they would have a better feeling about this stock. I think that time is here, or at most, a few days away. Many on this board have stated that once this thing hits $1 it will launch. I concur with that sentiment wholeheartedly. The $1 mark will do wonders to increase confidence for tutes, and will have given them the signal to buy that I believe many of them had been waiting for. They will enter fast and furiously, and this stock will no longer move at a snails pace like it has for the past 5 months. It's obvious everyone here knows their sh#*! about investing and maximizing their profits. The intention of my post here is only to remind you that if you're still wanting to increase your positions do it now, or if your that person looking to take up your first position in Chemtura also do it now, because after this thing hits $1 getting onboard cheaply is going to be much harder.
I we run up to $1.50 on the next run, which today could be the start of, I think any potential retrace could be significant, perhaps taking us back to $1 land or slighty below.
I was expecting this stock to stay in the low .50's a little longer, however I'm very happening that I was wrong. As for tommorrow I think we'll be down at the open and perhaps for the first few hours of trading, inevitably getting rid of those looking for their quick profit. Once we shake these people I think we will trend back up, possibly in the high .80's, perhaps higher. I'm basing my opinion on past price movements although this stock could virtually do anything at this point, though I don't see any significant pullback happening tommorrow.
Back up we go! Maybe we break the .72 HOD?
If we get two more profitable MOR's before the POR is filed, along with good new in the POR about the commons, plus specific details about how the 2009 bonds and DIP financing will be paid back, we'll be looking at $1 as if we were looking at the earth from the moon.
I don't think they dump until near $1 or over. I think Rogerson's comment about creditors liking the 5 year plan is catching up.
Buy/sells almost equal. The sells are being gobbled up quickly at higher share prices each time. I like it, we might eclipse .70 by the end of the day, however I think we'll close in the .60's.
The 200MA is the moving PPS average for 200 trading days. I believe it is .55 currently.
Hope this doesn't sound like too stupid of a question, but I'll ask you guys anyway. If I buy a 2009 bond now for $85, am I buying one of the 400,000 bonds that was issued in 2006 with a $99 face value? When my investment of $85 is returned how much am I going to get back, $85 or $99? My knowledge of corporate bonds is severely lacking, please help!
Not far from face value of original issue, and climbing. Whatever happens, someone plans to make money. No one buys at these levels unless they are extremely confident in their abilitiy to recoup their investment.
I don't believe anything will stop Rogerson from seeing this thing through until the end!
If the 2009 bondholders choose to be paid face value for their bonds rather than receive "new bonds" as part of the bankruptcy negotiations, what will the total cost be for Chemtura? Chemtura issued 400,000 of these bonds in 2006 @ 7%, is that correct? I've heard a $370 million figure and as high as $430 million. If the bondholders are unwilling to take "new bonds" and want to be paid what will the actual amount be?
I think we will close at least at .60 or more by Friday,IMO!
That news had already been posted by someone on this board if I recall. If I recall Rogerson planned to step away for a short period of time to address this matter, and then return back to his duties. There has been no indication given that Rogerson will leave his position. It's highly improbable that Rogerson did not give explicit instructions as to what he wants done in his absence. The sky isn't going to fall because Rogerson leaves for a short time. A plan has been implemented and will be followed. Chemtura knows what it wants to do in this bankruptcy, Rogerson has made that clear to all in the company. If for some reason God forbid Rogerson left the company then we might see this stock take a hit, but so far there has been no indications given of that happening.