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!! that's nota trendline. where are LG's rules ... ?
hmm. where is LG anyway??
"Only the last on was"
bill clinton: lewinsky/whitewater, whatever it was about ...
ronald reagan: iran contra
richard nixon: watergate
um. that's all of em for 45 years or so ...
"Ok, but in the next four years Bush supporters expect legislation that will turn the nation in a strong conservative direction"
is that what second terms are for? i thought that, for the last couple 2-term presidents, they've all been mired in scandal and impeachment, or threat thereof ...
"I strongly believe SP500 has embarked on the 3rd leg of the bull market that started in Mar/03."
hmm. but those moves were pretty much in step with the wli's. yet now, the wli's continue their march down, recently moving negative. and what stimulus does bush have left, except perhaps a bit of frottage.
"Iraq mess has just made him stubborn as hell,though."
or
stubborn as hell has made the iraq mess.
last time zogby was closest of any pollster, within 1% of popular vote (but on the total popular vote). i think he called it gore last time.
Birdies All Atwitter #
6:50 p.m.
6 p.m. exit polls -- not internals.
K/B:
FL 51 49
NC 48 52
OH 51 49
Missouri 46 54
Ark 47 53
Mich 51 47
NM 50 49
LA 43 56
CO 48 51
AZ 45 55
Minn 54 44
Wisc 52 47
IA 49 49
Karl Rove Attempts To Emit Human Tears #
6:40 p.m.
Naturally, we don't want to jump any guns here. Oh sure we do, we'll jump just about anything by this point. More squawking:
A certain high ranking former republican senator called Karl Rove around 5:15 this evening. Bush's brain sounded "dejected" and gave less than a 30% chance for a Bush win.
Birdie Chatter: Carville In Ecstasy #
6:10 p.m.
James Carville, everyone's favorite analyst/bald sex-gnome, is declaring smashing exit polls for Dems, we hear third or fourth or maybe fifth hand . . . ooo! Hands everywhere! it's like an O'Reilly phone call over here! Also: turnout of 121 million. We picture him doing some sort of naked, Ashlee-esque jig, but then we hit ourselves in the forehead with our NBC-emblazoned mini Dewars bottle and the image passes. We also hear there's a whole lot of conservative operatives crapping themselves. Of course, not Mary Matalin -- as an alien life form, she does not crap.
tradesport.com: big swing to kerry
wonkette update
The Birdies Sing a Sweet, Sweet Tune email this post
FL: 52/48 - KERRY
OH: 52/47 - KERRY
MI: 51/48 - KERRY
PA: 58/42 - KERRY
IA: 50/48 - KERRY
WI: 53/47 - KERRY
MN: 57/42 - KERRY
NH: 58/41 - KERRY
ME: 55/44 - KERRY
NM: 49/49 - TIE
NV: 48/49 - BUSH
CO: 49/50 - BUSH
AR: 45/54 - BUSH
NC: 47/53 - BUSH
A NOTE ON EXITS/EARLY POLLING: We post these numbers because information wants to be free! Run, information! Run for your life!
UPDATE: K/B 50/49 in fla at 4:15, says another birdie.
Answer this question TJ, if the dem nominee was a rock would you vote for him before you would a republican or an independent?
see, there go your knee-jerk assumptions again. i'm a libertarian, not a liberal. on the day that dubya announced that he wanted a constitutional amendment to codify discrimination against gay and lesbian folks, i sent $2k to each of: kerry, edwards, moveon.org.
As far as college students go it sure is strange that once they get in the real world and start having to pay taxes and see what everything is really like they often change their view of the dem party. They no longer want to earn $3 and give $2 away to someone else.
hey, now i had "not insignificant" gains in the market over the last couple years. and except for gold miners, the majority from being short. and i paid taxes. and bush's tax cuts didn't help me one bit. they helped someone, but not me.
yet: i don't mind paying taxes, as long as i get something for my money. but cronyism and a big old wasteful war is not it. lost lives aside, that's my money being spent. defense, yes; but billions to unseat a petty dictator and unsettling an entire region, that's not defensive.
"This is a prelude to a Kerry stock market. Lot's o red"
i thought dems are statistically better for the market than republicans? (simulate consumption more efficiently ... yadda yadda)
"apparently Mr. Drudge carries quite a bit weight in the marketplace"
well even carlson said to look to drudge for the early numbers, in this a.m.'s wapo. newsrooms are being cautious.
from wonkette [ http://www.wonkette.com ]
The Birdies Are Restless
OK, here's the thing about the birdies: They sing different tunes. And I always half-suspect that one of them will rip off his birdie mask and reveal himself to be Karl Rove....
K/B USA: 50-49 FL: 50-49 OH: 50-49 Colorado: 48-50 NM: 50-48 (these numbers could change) Note: No data for PA, WI, IA, MI, etc. etc. etc.
A Little Birdie Told Us
K/B
AZ 45-55
CO 48-51
LA 42-57
MI 51-48
WI 52-48
PA 60-40
OH 52-48
FL 51-48
MICH 51-47
NM 50-48
MINN 58-40
WISC 52-43
IOWA 49-49
NH 57-41
"I say that because I know life long dems switching and not being a party patsy anymore just accepting the party line. I also strongly disagree with your assumption , and I am a registered democrat, except I vote with a clear head and vote for the lesser of two evils most of the time."
well, on college campuses, the party is highly energized. very different even from just a year ago, when the most visible political types were highly conservative. but even among those, there are those who were convinced the war was the right thing to do and that - because it was so important - the ineptitude of the execution was inexcusible. (similar to andrew sullivan's position, e.g.)
"not being a party patsy anymore just accepting the party line"
!!! isn't this exactly what all of those breakaway conservatives are now saying? fiscal responsibility? etc.
"Actually Fred IF Kerry doesn't win, I truly believe it is the beginning of the end of the democratic party as it is now known."
i disagree strongly. (what state do you live in?) bush (and rove) have done for the democratic party what clinton did for the republican party. the problems will come in the republican party, which is now held together by the white house, since fiscal conservatives and those with a more libertarian leaning don't have a home there anymore ... (viz all the conservative voices that have come out to oppose the reelection.)
well heck, even tucker carlson thinks its gonna be a clear win ...
newly: re metal crib etc
you can always resort to google answers, if you're willing to shell out some $$.
http://answers.google.com/answers/
TJ, there is no secret that FOX is biased
you're talking about reporting or investigative reporting? all of the media reports any statement coming out of the white house as news, regardless of its partisan intent. and there's been alot of that in these years. investigative reporting of course comes down heavily anti-bush, since the administration is so secretive.
don't u miss presidential press conferences?
re "liberal media"
yeah, we need more fair and balanced reporting.
October 30 - Fox poll shows Bush up by 2. Headline: "Fox Poll: Bush Up By Two Points Over Kerry"
November 1 - Fox poll shows Kerry up by 2. Headline: "Fox National Poll: Voters Split."
You really can't make this up.
c/o conservative pundit andrew sullivan, http://www.andrewsullivan.com
its not about the total popular vote ...
soon!
he can run but he can't hide! i heard them say that!
re goog yahoo statistics.
the yahoo statistics have shown float = 100MM shares since day one. they're subtracting only insider and 10% beneficial owners, not unlocked shares.
"I listened to Cramer [...] he said [...] another 75 points is close to a no brainer."
now why is it not hard to believe that cramer is the expert on no-brainers?
I still don't get why they think mispelling Viagra so you can't filter their spam is going to make you any more interested in buying their product -- especially if you're female!
surprisingly, people do buy it. otherwise, they wouldn't do it.
whats absurd is that here, 10 years later, after all this spamming really started up and email started becoming popular, nobody has YET implemented a solution. digital signatures have been known for like what, 25 years? anything that blocks anonymous mail ... that can all go to my hotmail acct anyway ...
re citibank scam.
yeah i got that and immediately reported it to citibank as fraud (where they have a note specifically about such stuff). fortunately, to me it was obvious since it wasn't even addressed to me. (i must have been on a the cc.)
headers can be forged. don't click raw ip addresses.
"the real question to be solved is how to transfer stem cells from one to another"
with limited human cloning, that wouldn't be the problem. the problem is how you get them to differentiate into the cells you want and fully take on their function.
michael03332002,
"nah, on second thought just keep her here and looking GOOD and SEXY IMHO"
awww. fallujah and sexy. i don't care of she fumbles with her razor. just a good eight months in the heat and stink. heck, even recreation director at abu graib.
"defame her comrades"
ah. and so we remain stuck in a war because nobody will say its wrong. quite to the contrary: no mistakes were made.
puhleeze. give me gridlock.
"wind farm"
mmm. and i suppose those who support more nuclear power would invite a plant to set up next to their neighborhood elementary school. and if u drive, of course you want a refinery in your backyard.
why is it that when one supports something reasonable, its a joke if you don't support it in the extreme. like, um, oh, you know all those aborted fetuses: better to throw them in the trash than to use them for scientific research. have to make a point after all.
hmmm. that could be the first 2 candles of a doji evening star on the goog daily ...
"Bought GOOG Mar05 $185 stike puts"
you make me so happy i did the same earlier.
unlock plus the wli's trending negative ...
(documented here:
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?action=m&board=1608859966&tid=goog&sid=1608859966&...
)
"HOLY CRAP.NO REAL SELLING."
hmm. but the trinq is 1.66 and has been higher. on the other hand the trin has dropped < 1 ...
"TJ- how evil and likely!"
indeed. it first occurred to me back when it was trading at 100. and with a big lockup expiring just around december, when index adjustments are announced, the timing seems right. (and there's been lots of talk about the "accelerated lockup expiration" ... hmmm.) and then when the schwab analyst comes on the kudlow and cramer comedy hour and gives as his first reason for owing it that "mutual funds are underweight the stock" ...
though i seem to remember reading somewhere that s&p has changed the weighting recently, so that its now proportional to float. not sure if that works for or against the scenario ...
though the criminal part of my mind thinks its more than just that: i suspect they wanna keep the price up until the stock gets into major indices, when index funds will just be forced to buy at whatever the market price is.
yeah yeah, i know. that's why i had a spread going into earnings. sold my callz but still holding my putz.
"choad, I remember thinking about all the GOOG negativity at the time"
well, negativity isn't all that bad. after all, john hussman did an optimistic valuation on goog and put a fair value at $24.
but the real kicker for the long side had to be when an analyst came out and recommended shorting goog and going long yhoo. what sense does that make (as a "strategy for the masses") when there are only some 30MM shares trading.
dot dot dot, dot dot dot dot, dot dot, dash
UPDATE 2-Fed's Yellen-Fed may need to modify rate plans
Thu Oct 21, 2004 10:27 PM ET
By Adam Tanner
SAN FRANCISCO, Oct 21 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve may need to speed up or slow down its rate-tightening campaign, depending on economic activity and inflation, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Janet Yellen said on Thursday.
"We must remain very watchful as developments unfold, and be prepared to consider modifications in our course of action as needed to ensure price stability and full employment," Yellen told a meeting of risk professionals and security analysts in San Francisco.
She said if inflation showed signs of rising significantly, the Fed would need to consider moving more aggressively. Alternatively, the Fed may need to pause rate hikes if economic activity or the job market slows.
Financial markets widely expect the Fed to raise the 1.75 percent federal funds rate again at its next meeting in November, and then pause in December.
Yellen, who is not a voting member of the Fed's policy committee this year, said policy is still accommodative, or supportive of growth, and the inflation-adjusted federal funds rate is still slightly below zero. "This suggests that short-term interest rates eventually will have to go up to prevent an increase in inflation," she said.
Still, she said a medium-term neutral rate for the federal funds rate, which neither boosts nor drags on the economy, appears to be below the level that would be neutral in the long term.
Futures markets expect the fed funds rate to be near 3.0 percent at the end of 2005.
DOLLAR STILL 'RELATIVELY HIGH'
Yellen also cited the U.S. dollar as a concern, saying it has remained "relatively high despite our large and growing trade deficit." Cheaper imports undermined demand for domestic goods, and therefore interest rates were lower than they would otherwise be to support economic activity, Yellen said.
On the recent surge in oil prices, Yellen said the risk is they would put a further drag on spending and simultaneously create inflation pressures. Still, so far inflation seemed to be relatively well contained, she said.
"The evidence suggests that inflationary expectations are well anchored," Yellen said.
Yellen said absent upward pressure on wages, higher oil prices should have only a one-time inflationary impact if the Fed avoids the mistakes of the 1970s when she said it allowed inflationary expectations to rise.
"I believe it is very important that the Federal Reserve learn from the experience of the 1970s and make sure that we do not repeat it," Yellen said. "I am confident the Federal Reserve will not repeat that mistake."
Among other risks on the economic outlook, the Fed official cited the low U.S. savings rate and a sluggish labor market.
"In terms of the consumer, the sluggish job market could significantly restrain spending, as it lowers growth in disposable income and threatens to undermine consumer confidence," Yellen said.
She added that she did not see the currently high real-estate prices in many regions of the United States as indicating any type of a bubble in the market. She did express concern about rising wage inequality in the United States and about the long-term implication of the federal budget deficit.
Yellen was the last of four Fed officials to speak on Thursday. Fed Governor Ben Bernanke said earlier the central bank's response to record-high oil prices will depend on the health of the U.S. economy and the potential for inflation. He added that interest rates still could go up at a gradual pace.
© Reuters 2004. All Rights Reserved.
odd. so compx is up about 1%, ndx about 1.3% and qqq almost 2%??
hunh?
"Haven't heard anybody saying anything about the PPT lately..."
sigh, ur making me nostalgiac for those days when 1200+ tick jams were unusual enuf that you needed the ppt to explain them away ...
"As far as I know, last time the futures were predicting Gore as a winner, so who knows..."
well, and then they were pretty much correct, since the contract follows the popular vote.
um, i mean, the bet via the contract is on who wins the popular vote, not on who wins the presidency.
"assuming that xxxx wins (which seems likely)"
why does everyone here keep saying that? electoral vote count is all that matters, and the picture there is just the opposite, and solidifying.
current: http://electoral-vote.com/
projection: http://www.electoral-vote.com/pred/index.html
"cyber terrorism is a huge threat , even possibly moreso than physical violence. Such that they can interrupt power grids, water supplies et al..."
hmm. possibly by blowing up computers, but i'd think that would be considered physical violence. if anyone puts the control software for power grids or water supplies on the internet, they're crazy. but there have been standards (c2?) for quite a long time which secures vital systems. and step one is usually to disconnect it from all outside networks.
while the threat of viruses and malicious code is real, the threat is exaggerated if you're thinking of windows pc's as typical. the vulnerabilities of windows were known for a long time, and many were conscious decisions by msft.