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>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
3:29pm 01/23/04 [IBM] IBM TO HIRE 2.7MIL WORKERS BY OCTOBER
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
In what country?
(It's not even funny...)
H.
Only MSFT (and SUNW to a less extent) is holding the NDX up.
What an ugly day! The only good thing is that they closed the opening gap, so we can crash tomorrow without looking back.
<tongue in cheek>: The COTH, and COTL signals worked perfectly today --> We are closing exactly half way...
H.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
in edit> one min later and we are going vertical. fuck me dead
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
Yep! right on cue...
I hate this market <g>
H.
OK., thank you.
I'll revise and change my data.
H.
I'm just now reading your NazNewHighs "saga" (not much time for anything of late...) and I have a few comments to make:
I've been tracking new highs since mid October from this site:
http://dynamic.nasdaq.com/asp/usmostactive.asp?exchange=nasdaq&mostactive=adv#adv
(Adv/Dec and NewH/NewL info is quasi-real-time)
and this is my log:
(You can see that 11/7/03 was higher than yesterday)
Date Nas New Highs
01/21/04 153 (so far)
01/20/04 575
01/16/04 436
01/15/04 318
01/14/04 339
01/13/04 302
01/12/04 363
01/09/04 348
01/08/04 419
01/07/04 308
01/06/04 353
01/05/04 340
01/02/04 234
12/31/03 213
12/30/03 301
12/29/03 307
12/26/03 117
12/24/03 124
12/23/03 182
12/22/03 173
12/19/03 202
12/18/03 119
12/17/03 95
12/16/03 84
12/15/03 251
12/12/03 179
12/11/03 139
12/10/03 98
12/09/03 167
12/08/03 144
12/05/03 101
12/04/03 148
12/03/03 301
12/02/03 411
12/01/03 463
11/28/03 213
11/26/03 278
11/25/03 371
11/24/03 283
11/21/03 127
11/20/03 148
11/19/03 155
11/18/03 148
11/17/03 129
11/14/03 234
11/13/03 283
11/12/03 245
11/11/03 129
11/10/03 361
11/07/03 594
11/06/03 541
11/05/03 446
11/04/03 402
11/03/03 566
10/31/03 427
10/30/03 442
10/29/03 381
10/28/03 293
10/27/03 190
10/24/03 104
10/23/03 120
10/22/03 124
10/21/03 241
10/20/03 187
10/17/03 215
10/16/03 263
10/15/03 416
10/14/03 401
10/13/03 379
I have also been baffled by high new highs numbers in so-so days. My observation is that they are 1-day delayed respect to a high in the index, (or a good day) and my working explanation is that they are caused by a day late reaction in those thinly traded stocks that trade 2 or 3 times a week.
No hard data to support it, but it's the only explanation I could come with... <g>
Keep on the good job,
H.
BTW have we hit COTL yet?
Not that I know.
But you can use this free speller: http://www.iespell.com
Just install it once, and select "right-click" "check spelling" before submitting posts.
(I'm doing it right now) :>
Hope this helps,
H.
Huluriasquias is a name I made up a loooong time ago to be difficult to pronounce. (In Spanish)
It's guaranteed to be unique as a user name. <g>
Do you have a URL for the second subscription model? I would be very interested in taking a look at it...
H.
If you worked on OB/OS for 2 years then you are way ahead of me. <g> Hopefully you can find some worthy ideas in my post, otherwise somebody else might benefit... (I know I did reading these threads)
Regarding trend following I'm going to add a couple of things at risk of stating the obvious:
No single indicator defines the trend at all times. I use a polling method of 5 trending indicators, and as a side benefit I get an indication of how strong the trend is.
I found out (by back testing) that is better to stay 100% in the market at all times. Every way I tried to modulate my exposure profits fell. (Risk, of course, is another matter...)
H.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
As I have mentioned on this board before, I do not yet have a decent strategy for shorting in Bull markets that holds up well in a backtest.
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
I don't know what your exigency level is. I have got what I consider decent results with this very simple setup:
Overbought (Short) when (Naz Advances - Naz Declines) > 1300
OR when (Naz Adv Volume - Naz Decl Volume) > 900 million
Oversold (Long) when (Naz Advances - Naz Declines) < -1000
OR when (Naz Adv Volume - Naz Decl Volume) < -1200 million
These are daily values calculated just before 4PM.
You can play with the constants to fit your system. (The numbers I gave here are very close to the ones I actually use)
Then you have to decide when you are not OB/OS anymore. A simplistic method is to keep the position until price goes your way.
(My complete model is a trend follower, overridden by OB/OS signals generated with the method explained above with a few more complications to keep it interesting <g>)
H.
FWIW:
The Rydex site is consistently fast. I switch funds 2 or 3 times a week, (same as you guys, I guess) and I never have to wait more than 10-15 seconds for a trade confirmation.
BTW: My system said "short" today, and I switched to short at the end of the day. I'm not as comfortable with this position as Steve is, but I found out I rarely make money when I feel too smug about my prospects. (A little bit of worry is good for profits...<g>)
H.
I usually hate embbeded sounds/music but...
What an excellent version!!!
I played it several times already. (And I don't even have the stock <g>)
Thanks,
H.
Oh no!
I'm a Christmas boy.
Don't wish that curse to anyone.
Be well.
H.
(This is my last post for a while least everybody put me in ignore...)
Now you are making ME feel bad.
As penance I'm going to knee on garbanzo beans for half an hour.
H.
Hey!!! You got the wrong discussion.
I was part of the Beans/Beef controversy not the Kurlak one!
>>>> Just Kidding. <<<< Now back to our usual programming...
H.
Whoa! A blast from the past. <g>
You are really persistent I give you that. I had forgotten everything about that exchange.
And you are right! The Taco Bell site actually says "Ground Beef."
My first impulse is to doubt the accuracy of the page, but in this lawsuit-happy country I doubt they'll take the risk.
So I stand corrected. (It's beginning to be a habit of late. I'd rather stick to trading... <g>)
Again: Good Find, and maybe we should submit "Beans in the Taco" as an entry for urban-myth homologation.
H.
Yeah, I was afraid so. <g>
My system is telling me to go short Profunds at the close, but I'm afraid the market might run hard tomorrow.
I'll probably go short with only half of it...
Thanks.
H.
Zeev,
do you have a tentative road map for the rest of this week that you can share?
TIA.
H.
(Note: I didn't read the weekend stuff --only the 2004 roadmap-- sorry if you commented something then...)
Happy Holidays to Everybody!
And remember to spend time away from your computer...
(I'll try <g>)
Huluriasquias.
No idea. (And that's quite far my area of expertise anyway)
I always assumed that they fried the beans in its own oil (beans are quite fatty) but it's possible that they add some beef by-product for taste. (Bummer)
H.
Plain tacos at Taco Bell and other taco places are made with fried beans, not beef. (Although it kind of looks and tastes like beef)
Not much of a Mad Cow problem there...
H.
That's a very common (if rather obscure) problem.
SMTP servers are theoretically open so anybody could use them.
To avoid freeloaders they check the "From" field of the message you want to send against their list of approved users. If they don't find you there then it's rejected with a 550 error. (That happens to mean something else <g>)
Just check the "From" field of the messages that are working, and put the same info in corresponding fields of the new account (Tools/Accounts/Properties/General/User Information/EMail Address, I believe) Or better still copy the info from the same window in the old account.
Good luck.
H.
Get lost.
I would guess that gift cards are bad for retailers because they basically slow down the speed of money rotation. (And thus inventory turn-over)
H.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
could it be the ultimate NEWS that does it, such as catching UBL or Saddam, etc...?
That would certainly send the markets into orbit and pull every last diehard short or side line walker into the market and then WHOOSH
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
OK. That does it. Now we all know that you work for the C.I.A.
<ggg>
H.
OK. OK. You got me there.
I was thinking mostly about the stuff that home users might need. For multi-user db access in a business environment XP Pro might be the way to go.
The point I was trying to make (maybe without much success) was that many home users are choosing Pro for its name only when the Home version will serve them just as well.
H.
The market is (was?) at an inflection point.
Even Zeev's turnips, that have been calling the market perfectly this last month or so, had a 50/50 call for Monday onward.
This external event tips the scales and launches the Xmas rally.
Do you want to think like a criminal?
Then think of all the IRA money entering the market in the coming months. They (the criminals<g>) now have a golden opportunity to make this tired rally sustainable for a good while longer.
Wall Street does most of their money during Bull markets, not Bear ones. In order to skim money they need the people's savings in stocks, not in money-market accounts.
This bull rally has the potential to bring new money to the casino tables. Wall Street is going to encourage it anyway it can. (To say nothing of the "hidden" forces --PPT, Bushies, etc)
Sometimes good news are gapped and crapped. Everything is aligned suggesting that this time is NOT one of those.
Good luck tomorrow.
H.
IN EDIT:
Zeev: after I posted this message I read your:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=1933362
in which you say basically the same thing. (but in a much professional way <g>) I'm not trying to plagiarize you. (and badly at it) Just a genuine case of parallel development. <g>
Mostly good marketing.
The only relevant difference I found is that you can host your own website (with email and FTP) in your computer, but for doing that you have to have the "right" Internet connection, (Static IP) and an inclination to do so... (it's not always a good idea)
And you can always add free 3rd party programs to get the same functionality.
H.
XP without doubt. (Far more stable than "se" or "me." And you cannot run many graphic-intensive programs --mostly games-- in win2000)
You can save some money not going "Pro" if you are not going to host a website in your computer. (Only real advantage Pro gives you)
In case you'd ever need any of the Pro functions you can always make do with free 3rd party alternatives.
H.
When in doubt I did what every good trader should do: (not that I'm one. I only read it some place. <g>) "follow his system."
I stayed long for tomorrow, but I took 30% off the table. (As the big money was probably made today)
Interesting market... <g>
H.
Yeah, tough call.
The system I use for Rydex Dynamic funds (where most of my money is) just gave me a "Long" signal after being "Short" for tomorrow during the whole day.
I must decide in 10 minutes if I believe this rally or not...
H.
Don't listen to them aj!
Your equanimity is at risk. <g>
H.
BTW: Good call earlier on the 3 white soldiers, and "Shorts beware" It helped me make some money. Thanks.
In my understanding is
Up, Flat, Up.
Followed by Up, Up, Flat.
But I don't know if "Flat" can be part of the answer.
H.
Forget about buying a new board. Buy a new laptop instead.
One week before, and one week after Xmas is the best time to buy computers.
You can get a new Toshiba for around $700, or less if you wait for the right moment. (Last year I paid $650 at Best Buy 3 days before Xmas)
H.
Remember the old poker game say:
"If you don't know who the target is then you are"
<ggg>
H.
Yesterday's slippage was bad for Rydex too.
My expected share prices were:
RYVNX: 31.11
RYVYX: 17.62
The actual share prices were:
RYVNX: 31.09
RYVYX: 17.62
The actual gain for RYVNX was +2.17% and it should have been +2.24%
Usually (about 70% of the time) there's only one cent difference in only one of my expected prices. (Against the shareholders, and normally in the "winning" fund)
About 25% of the time I get both prices on the nose, (no slippage) and about 5% of the time one of them favor the shareholder by 1 cent.
This is all rather unscientific because I don't really keep records, just my recollections of my day to day calculations. (I've been doing them for about 2 years)
H.
Note: The worst slippages seem to happen when there's an unexpected big move at the very end of the day.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
every other mufu is being front run, you think rydex is going to turn out to be the exception? -g/ng-
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
Actually it doesn't matter for an Index MuFu Share Price whether is being front run or not because they are calculated differently from a "normal" fund.
In a regular fund the price of a share at the end of the day is the aggregated value of all assets, times their closing prices, divided by the number of fund shares outstanding. (minus pro-rated advertising costs, commisions, hidden charges, etc.)
In an Index Fund, such as Rydex Dynamic, or Vanguard SP500, the price of the fund share has to track the index, and the fund absorbs the difference positive, or negative. (up to a point, of course)
In a regular fund current shareholders are shafted by front running, not so in an Index Fund.
H.
Just for the record: Did you get a COTL earlier today?
(I don't think so...)
H.
Wall Street has in fact a license to steal.
It is so easy to steal legally, that many times the lines between legal/illegal are murky in the head of the participants.
I'm sure Strong didn't think he was doing anything wrong...
I used to be the programmer of the accounting/orders system in a (Big Bank) Mutual Fund in another life, and another country.
We used to watch for the orders from what we had identified as "Smart Money", and we would follow them. (Always before the deadline)
Once in a while when it was clear in the first hour that our orders were "patently wrong", they would "get lost" and we would walk away to trade another day.
Just a couple of very simple things insiders can do in a Mutual Fund.
H.
I understand that the net effect of trading after the allowed deadline (that's what they have been doing regardless of the fancy names) is absorbed by the current shareholders of the funds.
The only side-effect I see is less volume of holdings by the funds, (both because the crooks are not longer in, and some shareholders might leave in disgust) and that should lead to less volatility. (But a very minor change at it)
Just my (hopefully) educated opinion.
H.
I'm with you, I'm with you... <g>
H.