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Probably not, doesn't 4Q also include their annual tax subsidy on the heat power biz?
Also, the mine shuts down for 2 weeks during CNY. The YoY comps will obviously be stellar, though.
Yeah, I was leaning in that direction. Thanks, Joe.
EDS -- I see that their A/R was way up versus 2008 but is there any other reason for it getting knocked down so much after their 10K? It's looking like there may be value at these levels.
OT -- Bulls on Wall Street
I know StockGod follows a few of our stocks (CCME, NEP, LIWA). I am considering buying a membership to their service to see if there is anything else under the hood, but first wanted to ask does anybody here already have a membership and have any comments they can share?
A few brokerages were expecting even higher than 190k, my point was only that I think a lot of these estimates get mentally adjusted by the market when the ADP number is so weak as it was. In essence, the bad news was preannounced on Wednesday. Who knows, though, the market may be in ' buy the rumor sell the news' mode regardless of whether the news is bad or good.
The market was definitely expecting a reletively strong jobs number but it's difficult to judge the extent of that expectation particularly after Wednesday's weak ADP number. The thing with China tightening is that it's been fairly well telegraphed at this point. I'm not sure how much or how soon of an interest rare hike would really derail the HK and mainland markets since they are already expecting at least a modest tightening. The same goes for some sort of currency appreciation. In fact, a good case could probably be made that the Asian markets would rally on tightening news since it would remove a certain amount of uncertainty from the markets and get us closer to the end of this tightenng phase. Not that our stocks are correlated directly to the Asian markets at all.
CHGY -- Now officially with Matt Hayden et al.
http://www.hcinternational.net/clients_list.asp
Answered my own question: $10
Apologies for my laziness and not going right to the filings, but is there a forced conversion price for the warrants?
CCME - Another point made on the cc that I thought was interesting was the fact that they are now holding off on the previously mentioned capex expenditures to upgrade to a wireless network within bus stations, since it wasn't obvious to them that that would necessarily improve their pricing arrangements with advertisers ... more money in the bank for us/acquisitions.
Zack, how did the meeting with Susan go?
CHGY
Presentation from R&R Beijing conference just released
Geoinvesting explanation --
http://geoinvesting.com/companies/skbi_skystar_bio_pharma_co/research/special_situations/0023740
Nothing too earth shattering here
ECSC Top Picks Voting
Or just have people list their top 3 to 5 picks and aggregate the results of that.
Derek -- A couple of technical points to consider if you're going to do the quarterly top stock list via an online poll is that these types of votes can be manipulated fairly easily and the voters themselves would be anonymous.
It's nice to see who voted for what.
The overall idea of polling the board on a quarterly basis, though, is a fantastic idea.
Happy New Year ECSC!!!
Thanks to all the posters who make this board the wonderful place that it is. Special thanks to CSP and the other mods for keeping the debate clean and on-topic.
Wishing everyone the best for 2010!
CCME WS -- I love how the common is being offered at $10.45 via the warrants. Such a steal
CCME -- The shorts will just cover with exercised warrants imo.
There's a lot of potential liquidity coming to the commons soon, but it doesn't change the fact that this stock will probably perform very well from its current level over the medium/longer term.
CSKI -- Major short squeeze taking place there
Won't most companies with make-good agreements in place have escrow agreements for the shares which would be issued?
I meant they also seem to be diversified into manufacturing businesses as well (manufacturing using rare earth materials). I'm not sure what their overall exposure to any sort of mining is.
There's HK listed 'China Rare Earth Holdings (0769)', but they are fairly diversified and I'm not sure what their overall exposure to rare earth mining is.
Excellent link. Thank you, ihtblr.
Hmm, just starting to crunch some numbers on this ..
Could someone please share the current FD share count as well as their estimates for 2010 revenues (I know there will be a big spread on this given the number of new products the company plans on launching) and operating income.
I'd like to start honing in some accurate (as possible anyway) Non-GAAP estimates for next year in lieu of today's news.
TIA
ADY - Rato
I've been nibbling down here, since it certainly seems like a compelling value at these prices, but I'm not convinced that it has bottomed. I am concerned that the company is expecting a weak Q4 which is traditionally their strongest and also a bit concerned about potential dilution if they do not hit their eps targets for this year and next per the terms of their recent financing with Sequoia. Overall, it seems like these prices compensate for those risks, though.
Thanks a lot, Ari
ADY -- Is anyone else following this?
It's had quite a selloff after lowering guidance for this year, but I think that it's in a good industry and is trading for quite a bit less than the $30 pps that Sequoia invested $60MM at in an all stock deal in August. The make goods for that deal were $3 eps for this year and $4.3 for 2010.
Could any charties here please share their take on whether we're near a low?
TSTC A/R: Compare TSTC's A/R to GRRF's ... they both seem to have similar issues with payments from the big China telco's. The CC mentioned that the long term A/Rs are a legacy issue from the merger of China Netcom and China Unicom, however, the payments on those A/Rs have recently resumed from Unicom
weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!
... couldn't help it =P
I agree that the warrant prices probably imply a "truer" price for the stock, but I still can't wrap my head around why every day the stock itself trades in greater dollar volume versus the warrants.
IB is Interactive Brokers. I use their trader workstation app and one of the free data feeds I get through them includes the Globex futures quotes
I can get quotes for the Globex RMB futures contracts in IB. See if your broker can offer quotes for those. If you have access to a Bloomberg terminal, you can check NDF quotes via the 'NDF' function, too.
RMB non-deliverable forward contracts are currently pricing in about 3% appreciation over the next 12 months ... for whatever that's worth. Will be interesting to see what gets discussed on this issue and how the NDF market will react during Obama's trip to China.
TMI: I've been thinking about this ad rate issue as well. It would be nice if we knew what VISN's rates were on its intra-city bus/subway network.
I think that that would give us the best picture of what TMI's pricing power is rather than using TV rates as a comp.
I don't see a 2/1 split filing on TMI either. Seems positive, though, if it's the case.
The warrant share payout would be adjusted in the case of a split. Here is the applicable section from the warrant agreement filed in the 9/11/07 S-1 filing:
" 4.1.1 STOCK DIVIDENDS — SPLIT-UPS. If after the date hereof, and subject to the provisions of Section 4.6 below, the number of outstanding shares of Common Stock is increased by a stock dividend payable in shares of Common Stock, or by a split-up of shares of Common Stock, or other similar event, then, on the effective date of such stock dividend, split-up or similar event, the number of shares of Common Stock issuable on exercise of each Warrant shall be increased in proportion to such increase in outstanding shares of Common Stock. "
Any offshore asset is generally out of reach for the average Chinese investor due to the restrictions on the convertibility of the RMB. Several wealthy Chinese individuals and institutions do, obviously, have assets offshore with which they can invest but they would be a minority when compared to the Chinese investing masses.
This liquidity effect is one of the primary reasons for the tendency of a given firm's H-shares to trade at a discount to their corresponding A-shares.
TMI+
I love how the warrants are up less percentage-wise than the common ... such a weird mispricing situation
TMI Warrants:
The warrant ticker is "TMI WS" without the quotes in IB.
TMI+:
The TXIC warrants are callable by the company at $10, however. With TXIC trading at $11+, the market is assuming there is little time value actually left.
TMI-WS dilution
Fernando, I looked closer at the terms of the warrants and found this:
"The exercise price and number of shares of common stock issuable on exercise of the warrants may be adjusted in certain circumstances including in the event of a stock dividend, or our recapitalization, reorganization, merger or consolidation. However, the warrants will not be adjusted for issuances of common stock at a price below their respective exercise prices."
I think we're safe.