Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Wow, after hours Scalping at Walgreens:
I have only read that Walgreens now has a Blow Bar (Hair Salon) and Pedicure service area to Take-Care(LOL) of its Drug store customers, while they are waiting for a Zanex refill.. (alprazolam)for us Generic folks.
In todays after hours trades this Walgreens Investor
just looked at the Rx pay-out for this Salon treatment w/Rx refill, Customer cost was just $7.00 with a discount broker.
A Walgreens rewards customer no doubt.
16:07... $66.78 x 20,100 = $1,342,278.00 all after hour sales are final..
LOL!!!
Walgreens BOD;
You mean the guy who said "Keep Your Eyes on the Fries"..
Well it is quite evident his metrics on Walgreens top selling Rx's(60%+ of revenue) was blinded or looking through a opaque lens.
Flipping burgers and demand creation is quite Different than providing services in the Healthcare sector.
Gee, Walgreens Rx drive thru perhaps will offer a 2 for 1 price on a proctology exam with a free pickle.
Oh yea, Is this is the same board that approved the ABC venture dismantling Walgreens assets in its own Rx Warehouses. instead of expanding this business in the US with Buy-out's in the Wholesale Rx space.
Then look at the losing guest Traffic flow.. all of Walgreens BOD'S in the retail space know this is a problem.
Their solution, give Walgreens executives a Bonus and continue Rx buy-outs and new B&M construction in the retail space..
You and I both Know how and why BoD member are selected and from the annul election results the only one who received the most votes was S. Pessina the largest stock holder..
That is todays Rant on Walgreens Structure and GLTA!!
Walgreens trading Volume Collapsed:
3/10/14 Walgreens Daily volume fell off the radar along with CVS, Rad and most of the market Wall street pitches..
All Market Makers eyes must be on Ukraine and Malaysia, or are they resetting Corporate Valuations as China's exports Slowed down, allowing a Chinese Company to Default on a Bond.
Is it possible the Market is starting the revaluation many predicted..
I hope you all put your sell triggers on..
B/Y said keep U'R I on GLD?
GLTA!!!
Sold bonds, not the Issue:
My point was Walgreens future higher Coupon interest rates reduce its working capital, and the issue developing in Europe have increased the uncertainty principle on AB valuation that's all.
Add into this the U.S. ending easy money.
Here is a look at Walgreens current financial position.
http://www.stock-analysis-on.net/NYSE/Company/Walgreen-Co/Financial-Statement/Assets/Quarterly-Data
Look at the non current assets, these are less liquid
Last weeks up & downs was a wind fall for the Hedge funds that have taking a positions In Walgreens< IMO
When the Walgreens-AB Wedding Music stops, be assured the Hedge Funds will leave the party with the money and leave this bride with more debt..
GLTA!!
Here is the list of European/ Russian importers of gas/oil
Estonia 100%
Finland 100%
Latvia 100%
Lithuania 100%
Slovakia 98%
Bulgaria 92%
Czech Republic 77.6%
Greece 76%
Hungary 60%
Slovenia 52%
Austria 49%
Poland 48.15%
Germany 36%
Italy 27%
Romania 27%
France 14%
Most notable are 2 members of the G-7, France and Italy, who requested to the US.. take a less threating position to Russia.
This is the EU members list: http://europa.eu/about-eu/countries/member-countries/
So, Marco financial risks do come into play, In Network theory each country has a risk with each other in Europe and even back to the U.S.
The Banking Crisis is an example.
As for the bonds sold in Walgreens 2nd tranch in the AB buyout, these are floated just like the U.S, treasury Bonds, the interest rates on bonds will be set by the Market. So this is not predetermined.
These will carry s high interest rate than the 1 tranch.
Hedge Funds like Jana.. Hedge or insure there Walgreens stock investment risk with options "Put and Calls"
Meaning Jana might sell Puts on Walgreens S/P going to a lower price and collect the spread.
So Jana borrows the stock from themselves and buys insurance that the price will go down(put) and therefore they make money on the lower price, also reduce there buyin costs as they buy a call at the lower price.
But U know this..
El nino is back, and Walgreens CFO has modeled an increase in
Big Flats Sales.. LOL
GLTA!!!
Crimea is the Shipping port:
Russia's population is concentrated in this oil/gas shipping port city, as well as a Major Russian Naval base.
As I said China, is a large Importer of Russian oil/gas and has not taking a stand about this issue, but they could!!!
China increasing oil/Gas imports will limit any financial impact Russia would feel , also Russia limiting Europe's energy supply, prices will increase in Europe
Peter King ..LOL, he is a Jerk and you are I understood the Importance of energy with our investments in the LNG
Industry.
My post was about the borrowing credit risks for Corporations in Europe.. and how they are connected to Ukraine, European Loan interest rates will increase with the Ukraine Russia Issue.
Alliance Boots/Walgreens is not the only Corporation with exposure to higher operational expenses, these Bankers calculate energy costs increases into its interest rates.. Short and long term borrowing costs..
This addition expense would lower earnings/Capital for Alliance Boots, therefore this changing value would be to the negative from Walgreens projected Earning model in the 2nd Step merger.
Increasing Walgreens Borrowing costs against the AB value.
So, if Alliance Boots credit is influenced by the Ukraine event Walgreens credit will also be affected through connectivity.
As I pointed out, Walgreens has reduced its US assets to free up Cash Flow for the 2nd step buyout, It also is rebooking assets in the Valuation of Alliance Boots, which would be a lower value by the increase in AB operational costs.
So Risk/Return has increased for Walgreens.
When Did the Russia /Ukraine issue emerge, Novemeber/December.
Enter the Hedge Funds large buy-in positions..
No... Large Hedge fund positions has been reported on CVS or RAD.
GLTA!!
Alliance Boots Geo-political Risks:
Ukraine/Russia are the top issues facing Europe right now,
The hot issue European business are facing is energy costs and who will buy it at what price.
Russia last week faced a 16 billion dollar loss as the russian exchange rate was bloodied by the Central banks, Yet the largest potential Customer for Russia's energy has yet to weigh in.
CHINA, As China is a large holder of American and European Debt
There involvement in purchasing Russian supplied Energy could cause some European commercial paper to default, China could force B/K on many Euro corporations unable to meet bond payment, at the same time increase global demand for Chinese products, (pharmaceutical)
A projected global growth commodity.
Walgreens which has a 45% stake in Alliance Boots could see there equity Warrants decrease in Value and bank funding commitments increase in costs.
As Walgreens has reduced its safe Assets holdings in the US and recommitted Asset to the A/B merger.. also millions in the ABC minority ownership stake.. Hedge funds have made stock purchases in Walgreens.
Walgreens S/P volatility an risk has increase over the last week..
and A/B has yet to face a revaluation of risks for assets valuations as the Ukraine issue continues..
As the Mad Money star said: Bulls and Bears make Money
PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain) get slaughter.
Lets hope this Ukraine issue ends soon.
Your outlook B.Y.
GLTA!!
Freds accepts EBT, sells milk, eggs and bread along with Prescription medications, just like the larger CDS.
90% of stock ownership is held by institutional investors, and freds recovered from a low last April 2013 of 13.+00 share, to 20+.00
As announced in its last report Rx sales are up, Walmart P/E is 15.22 and freds would not make a dent in WMT P/E.
Walgreens P/E is 23.55 and freds is running 26.03 on the run up..
This looks like a buy for private equity, looking to set up a Franchise system.. or a retailer giant like Wmt or SHC as a overstock outlet with a pharmacy..
I agree Walgreens would not buy Freds because of its P/E based on there own P/E, but it is a safer bet that many Emerging markets.
Glta!!
Walgreens, CVS, RAD and Freds:
Freds is up for sale, it has based its Retail model on low pricing for Everyday living and Pharmacy services.
As this Rx space is growing more competitive, being the growth In new Pharmacy offerings from no-drug store providers, Freds, has decided to sell its operations.
Looking into Freds financials they have non-core assets that could be sold off to reduced operational costs. Including airplane costs.
A RJR operational mindset..
Do you think Walgreens needs to look into this model as freds has grown it Pharmacy services at the expense Of the large chain drug stores market dominance.
Whats your thoughts!!
GLTA!!
I'm thinking Walmart Ez express.
Cerberus, mentioned this format and is looking at the-pharmacy possibility as a driver of addition traffic for older shopper.
I don't think this buyout is settled yet. As Fred's is now on the sales block.
GLTA!
Do you see an arbitrage trade there??
GLTA!!
Big.Yank, I agree with what you are saying with a note:
The U.S. prescription Drug spend pr. person Is the largest in the World by a long shot, as well as Drug advertisements and lobbying spending.
HHS.gov has a Chart, Dam if I can find it.
The US out paced the world by a large margin In Prescription sales yet our life expectancy is not # 1.
Yes, more older/Younger folks (60 is the new 40) like you and me will take medications or engage in a healther lifestyle like giving up tabacco or eating junk foods.., the manufacturing costs are coming down with patent expire. so future profit margins will be reflective of a commodity, like a LCD TV is today...
This is one input calculation the Hedge funds are looking at..Retail pr. Sq. foot cost in providing a commodity.
Advertising spend is another..
India is the largest manufacture selling Medication into the U.S. today, do you think they care if Walgreens, CVS, or Rad is the purchaser.
This Rx market is now moving into consumer traffic flow in Retail.
Having spoken with many managers of these drug retail stores, almost none had a background in Healthcare, except the Pharmacists.
And the Hedge funds are calculating this.
That was the basis of my questions.
Congratulations on your price appreciation.
GLTA!!
Big.yank
I know you are a sophisticate investor and you follow the Nasdaq trades posted..
I don't need to explain to U how HFT tests market pricing and what % of trades are done by these computers.
This boils down to you, me and the other folks trading against the IBM Wasson computers, who in a nano second changes the S/P up or down.
The barriers to entry for the Rx retail space are not a problem for Mega Stores, Hospitals, Doc in the Box's, or Supermarkets just to name a few..
Walgreens Wassin even stated his desire to expand its store Clinics.
Yep, and a Cat Scan too..that was priceless.. LOL
Wall Street is starting to questioning the Forward Valuations of the Tech sector (F/B, Twtr) who's earning projections are in the wizard of OZ land based on a unknown future.
Valuations in most of the equity Market are reflective of what a bond yields.
As a safe bond yield is very low currently, the Fed has announced they are not worried about inflation.
And QE easing will move strategically
forward..
Why do you think the Hedge funds moved in to this sector..
Regards.
Thanks tbone 1360;
MMRF Sec filing showed this transaction from a unrelated 3rd party
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1285701/000113626114000049/body8k.htm
As this settlement included a forward contract with Walgreens and a undisclosed payment perhaps this may or may not be part of the MMRF Walgreens agreement.
On a more relevant note, Walgreens Selling price is facing a Hedge fund raid on its investors S/P.
Overvaluation in this sector with Competition from Supermarkets, Retail Mega stores, and lower cost dispensing models/methods have this company in the markets cross hairs.
As an app is only another form of communication vs a phone call I don't expect this to be a game changer for MMRF S/P, as no insider buying on this stock has been reported, and the S/P has not moved I would look for another investment..
A tip to you, check out this penny stock that is developing a vaccine..GOVX..
GLTA!!
High Speed Trading, Hedge funds Targeting Walgreens;)
Yesterday Walgreens released Feb. Sales report, and the stock keeps going down.
Geez.. the P/R report looked so good for main street investors, but the 75% of daily traders in this Stock, whom are run by HST math quant's didn't think so.
Reverse financial Math engineering of Walgreens P/R revenue picture is showing them a different earnings report.
Do any of you folks Know what this could be???
GLTA!!!
Wag and MMRF;
So where is MMRF big bump up..
Sorry... but you folks are on the wrong end of MMRF, Look into bonus AWARDS for MMRF management and its Bod.. that is WHERE YOU MONEY WILL GO..
If you want to make some real money in penny land find a company that sell and makes a real product or a company restructing... Your tech investment is facing another Dot.com bubble.. This time it will be on the valuation of app's and Social media corporations.
Walgreens, does not report on how many online app orders for med's occurs, and as for tracking this.. well just look at Walgreens last settlement, Walgreens position was they where uninformed as to anything out of the normal course of business occurring. so good luck in collecting any forward money.!!
GLTA!!
Target:
Funny you mentioned Target, I was there yesterday with a friend who just bought a Waterfront Condo here.
She needed some home item's, Vacuum Cleaner, Convection toaster oven and bedding, She also is a PHD Quant!!
I checked out Targets Pharmacy while she was shopping, And I can report that it was busy.
Also the Drug pick-up bins where full, 3 Techs working with 1 pharmacist, unlike Walgreens or CVS where I mostly see 1 Pharmacists and 1 tech over-worked in a much small space.
As for the guests in Target, they where more upscale, a step up from the Chain Drug store Cliental.
Target also had a pet med discount card, offering free flavoring.. as My 2 dogs are getting older and sometimes require meds, I will try them.
Target is upscale with good pricing... as for Targets Data Breach.. Hell the Web sites of the FBI, Sony, and CIA where hacked among others..
Who Knows what else was compromised there.
I still want to know how much Rx prices increased/inflation in this sector from last year. I guessing 1.7% aggregate across all meds.
As for patients going onto a second medications, Perhaps .7%
Do you have any view on these numbers, as it would give a clearer picture on growth.
GLTA!!
2.5% points from 90 day scripts.
This was reported today in Walgreens press release.
Backing this % out of Rx script growth(6.7%) as these are current patients who are being billed forward for medications received.
Walgreens Rx sales growth increased 4.7% in Feb., so now there are only 3 Variables left.
1) retail costs/copay increases
2) patient who are now on a additional medication
3) Growth in a new customer base
A little help needed here!!
GLTA!!
Walgreens 4 Variables for Rx sales increase:
Walgreens 4 weighted Variables I'm looking at for the increase in Rx revenue.
1) Drug increased cost to the customer/Increased Co-pay.
2) 30 to 90 day Rx conversion.
3) Same patient with Additional medication added.
4) Growth in Customer base.
This is where the Hedge funds have the trading edge.
Factor into this Walgreens Customer traffic is down 0.7% in the highest demand month.
Anyone have a view on this??
GLTA!!!
Yep, the numbers looked strong.
Feb. Rx sales increased by 6.7%
Feb Comp Rx filled up by 2.2%
Traffic was down in Feb .07%
No report on 90 day Rx conversions, from (est.) 8,582 Rx locations
this could be a contributor to the Rx Sales increase.
until we see the Quarterly report on 90 day Rx Conversions,
I don't know if Drug inflation Rx costs to the patient are a factor and or 30 to 90 day Conversions increased these numbers..
Or it could be new Rx's from the patients it already is servicing for secondary or 3rd Diagnosis.
Or is it growth in its Rx customer base.
But, that store traffic decline is there.
Premarket on Walgreens was Up.. and Now look at it(10:17) 3/5/14
Looks like the Hedge funds are at work!!
Your view and input!
GLTA!!
Obama Budget Raises $276 Billion From U.S. Multinationals.
I guess Obama also heard the rumors about Walgreens relocating offshore to avoid paying U.S. Taxes.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-05/obama-budget-raises-276-billion-from-u-s-multinationals.html
Did you folks see the price swings in Walgreens yesterday,
Those Hedge funds are engaging in sweeping up millions of Dollars
of Main street investors money, and this will continue for the next 2 years.
GLTA!!
I agree with you someconcerns,
I own this even longer, and have followed DSCO's missteps along the Way, I feel the solution is to find a partner to take them into the global market..
Regards
Yep,
GE makes everything from Washing machines to War heads..
Time to start buying..
Nice Run-up on Wag and Rad.
Hedge funds are increasingly taking positions in this Healthcare sector..
Rad is the recent recipient of a Hedge Fund investment.
As Hedge funds are know to engage in HST with Quant traders using Algorithm's buying and selling.. they look to create volatility and capitalize on it.
I think we retail investors are now at a disadvantage against them as dividends or long term growth in not in their interest.
It is interesting that these Hedge funds have not taken a position in the Rx Wholesale sector..
So something is UP!!!
GLTA!!.
A Walgreen HQ in Switzerland?
Nice article by Joe Cahill
http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20140301/ISSUE10/303019981/a-walgreen-hq-in-switzerland#
It make sense, after Walgreens sold off its Corporate Offices, turned over its Rx Distribution to ABC, and is running out of synergistic savings the next low hanging fruit to pick is over US Corporate Taxes.
GLTA!!
Someconcers:
I have been a long time holder of this stock, and I believe in this Rx potential, However I don't see the Executives of this company moving this to a international foreign market where this Rx would have been approved years ago.
GLTA!!
Yep, that was my point!
The Market Rally today seems a little heady,
As emerging markets still face financial issues, and
US growth projections are far from stable.
Alliance Boots has exposure in these emerging markets, Turkey, Russia, ..
Perhaps their are more.
This weather vortex has taking a hit on US GDP also.
IMHO
Enjoy todays rally
GLTA!
CHF's invoices for a Russian Wholesaler?
Exposure lies in two different business Alliance Boots has in Russia
1st the Wholesale business.
2nd the retail partnerships which I don't think are paying in CHF's.
http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/ECAEXT/0,,contentMDK:22473284~pagePK:146736~piPK:146830~theSitePK:258599,00.html
I agree on the weakening euro and gbp.. as for a flight to safety, it is occurring.
Meaning less Euro dollars along with higher interest rates to borrow funds.
As for Wassin, I believe he exhibits Columbian behavior, as for him being a Swiss citizen only for a extradition reason.
GLTA!!
Alliance Boots revenues are being impacted!
Ukraine is the issue folks, Europe is dealing with oil prices increasing $2.00 and natural gas prices increasing also..
These 2 factors cuts into earnings revenue for European corporations such as Alliance Boots.
The second important matix to look at is Italy's and Germany's banking exposer in the Ukraine and also Russia, with fixed loans exposure.
If you recall, I spoke about foreign exchange rates and how this will effect profits.
Well just think about the cost of Drugs Alliance Boots purchased in Swiss dollars and the return they will receive in Russian Rubbles.
The Russian dollar is down folks and will continue in this direction until the Ukraine issue is resolved which will take months. unless the unthinkable happens that being a War and then kiss the Euro recovery good buy.
And your Hedge Fund investors know this..
Volatility has now entered the Walgreens S/P picture..
GLTA!!
Walgreens Ukraine Exposure:
Better keep your eye on Europe folks, now Big Yank and I have invested in U.S. Natural gas companies. But those folks in France, Germany and Italy have exposure to the Ukraine Russian pipeline of Oil and gas flowing though Ukraine.
Also any exposure to Russia with a potential default on the Ukraine bonds that Russia is holding along with other Euro countries, Germany, Austria, and the euro BanKsters who are invested in Russia's oil & gas pipelines.
Maybe a bit worried.
I think Alliance boots also has wholesale operations in Russia.
Well, Walgreens global exposure now sure gives its Investor a lot of real estate to cover.
Anyone Buying oil.. its going up until this is resolved!!
GLTA!
I don't know what the Settlement was..
But I know that Walgreens does not settle for large sums without an appeal.
Do you invest in anything beside penny stocks?
I have yet to recoup my investments with penny stocks
so I will defer to your expertise.. LOL
GLTA!!!
Congratulations:
Walgreens Settled, I'd think it was a small sum other wise they bring in the big guns like they did with the DEA/DOJ..
So what is your estimated amount, 3 million or less?
What ever the amount, I like your Due Diligence and understanding that the (MM) Market Makers keep this information buried.
Good luck on the upside!!!
GLTA!
Don't count on it!!!
Walgreens will not pay!!
Enjoy sitting in Penny lane..
GLTA!!
Put lipstick on this:
I don't understand when this Executive team is going to get off their Asses and market this product.
I want to see this stock at $5.00 a share, Dam-it!!! sell it to Zukerberg he paid 19 B for a no income company with no patents, and these DSCO folks who have a Drug patent sit in there office..
GLTA!!
So true
Where generic medications are manufactured is the issue, out of the control of a chain store pharmacist.
My experience is that most of these pharmacists have no input into sourcing, purchasing as this is made by a
Purchasing group that is not involved with QA issues, until the FDA issues a recall.
I believe this is becoming a problem as recalls of foreign manufactured drugs is at a record high and should be address by congressional oversite.
The second issue involves drugs that have been recalled and are in the possession of the patient, are the patients being informed by the dispensing pharmacy?.
If the patient is being informed.. Who is contacting the patient... As reported in the press a patient was informed of a wrong mediation being dispensed and told the patient that both medication labels started with the same letter.
GLTA!
Generic Drugs "At best didn't work"
Preston Mason, a researcher at Boston Brigham's, a Womens hospital briefed 50 congressional staffers and representatives from the White House, the State Department and the FDA.
The FDA has banned four plants in India over the past nine months from exporting generic drugs to the U.S
Harry Lever, a cardiologist at the Cleveland Clinic, also spoke, saying patients who have failed to respond to generic drugs produced abroad do much better after he switches them to copycats from the U.S., or to branded medicines.
Yep, Global sourcing for cheap generic drugs are starting to run into quality issues, do you know where your Walgreens, CVS, RAD etc. Filled prescription was manufactured??
Full article can be found at Bloombergs.
Super Tanker Rx purchases:
I found this while looking into foreign manufactures that will be competing for these super wholesale buying groups.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-28/generic-drug
With such large purchases there is going to be the risk of large recalls.
So I guess we will see how this plays-out for the 3 large U.S. wholesalers.
In the comment section Walgreens was mentioned by a customer who felt the generic dispensed from India was not as effective as one that was dispensed from another generic supplier.
GLTA!!
Cash flow vs Turn over rate of products..
It appears that Walgreens turnover rate has been slowing, leading to a larger Rx inventor build, this will now be off-set by the ABC 10 year contract to supply Drugs.
However Walgreens project cash flow is projected to be lower into 2016.
http://www.4-traders.com/zbcache/reuters/Draw_Chart.php?p=21,1,605,375,Walgreen+Company&RepNo=9560N&L2
That was my point.. as I said keep a watch on free Cash flow in the next earning report, or am I reading this projection wrong?
GLTA!!
I do not recall Alliance Boots Chairman, Mr. Pessina projecting a 130 Billion Revenue stream by 2016, I do recall Walgreens Wassin making this projection.
As Alliance Boots is being bought out it stands to reason that Walgreens would be making this projection Vs AB.
I could be wrong but if you have a link I would enjoy seeing it..
Did you read that Freds Rx is for sale, Opportunity costs would favor Wal-mart making a Bid as they indicated building more Express Market stores, Yet CVS could also incur this debt and build out its mail order business and Med D business..
I don't see Walgreens acquiring this additional debt, as Wag is already involved in the ABC and AB partnership integration.
Would a Rx Wholesaler step In to buy this company, as this was not mentioned, Have you looked into estimating a buyout value Yet ,
I ask because forward P/E in the Healthcare sectors is at a all time high..
Your view.
GlTA>>
Financial data for 2012./2013
http://annualreport2012-13.allianceboots.com/