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Speaking of loans is the refi window closing here? I still got to do that and was breathing alittle better after the treasury action on FNM. But risk premium jumped back up today.
IMHO
The flight to the three month is simple mechanics to guarantee your money over night . When you don't know who will blow up where would you park 100million dollars?
A friend of mine who worked a Soro's described how all cash was swept into treasures before the bond market closed each day. IMO at plausible reason for the daily change of pace in the market after the bonds close.
After hearing what a racquetball buddy describe of his client whose 90 million dollars where being transferred thru Lehman and is now in limbo. It doesn't surprise me that anyone whose cash balance is substantial uses the Short T note overnight. It becomes an indicator of lack of market trust.
If I get the chance I will will revisit your link thanks. That stuff reminds me of what Buckminster Fuller called the World Pirates or what Nader describes in a book the Big Boys when you get a peek at Cargill.
My point and concern is that once we need to begin printing money for lack of FED funding we open the door wide to hyper inflation Pre Volcker style and then see what in this 30%down retirement environment happens to The baby boom bomb whose shrunken savings hyper collapse.
LG an article on the mechanics involved:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/71792-size-of-fed-s-balance-sheet-limits-public-s-losses
That's a bit of hubris on his part IMHO from the Treasury Dept site:
"Federal Reserve Banks obtain the notes from our Bureau of Engraving and Printing (BEP). It pays the BEP for the cost of producing the notes, which then become liabilities of the Federal Reserve Banks, and obligations of the United States Government.
Congress has specified that a Federal Reserve Bank must hold collateral equal in value to the Federal Reserve notes that the Bank receives. This collateral is chiefly gold certificates and United States securities. This provides backing for the note issue. The idea was that if the Congress dissolved the Federal Reserve System, the United States would take over the notes (liabilities). This would meet the requirements of Section 411, but the government would also take over the assets, which would be of equal value. Federal Reserve notes represent a first lien on all the assets of the Federal Reserve Banks, and on the collateral specifically held against them.
Federal Reserve notes are not redeemable in gold, silver or any other commodity, and receive no backing by anything This has been the case since 1933. The notes have no value for themselves, but for what they will buy. In another sense, because they are legal tender, Federal Reserve notes are "backed" by all the goods and services in the economy."
http://www.ustreas.gov/education/faq/currency/legal-tender.shtml#q2
VIX can easily hit 40 manana morning. The TL SPX broke today buys us a date with 1020 area. IMHO
APWR bad entry few days back will take a look tomorrow, freed up cash by selling GDP. My gut that VIX may actually give us a higher read in the manana. It doesn't seem to signal highs on a large green body.IMHO
Se la vie, time will tell I have SOX on my side.
I threw most of the rest long at SSO.
The one that is sucking thru a straw is PPO that one does put long tails in. Will look and see how things develop.
As always great bar Aj love the patrons:)
It's official it is the bottom. LOL
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Well most gunpowder gone in 92% long call me when the dust settles.
Take a look at NVDA and STEC IMHO they may benefit from this SNDK speculation BWTFDIK
Good luck.
Don't be a stranger.EOM
You called that one.EOM
What hasn't pulled back to my buys are the alt energy plays although I did snag some ESLR in the low mid 3s.
I got lucky when I said yesterday that this may turn around with the AIG rescue and a limiting on short rules.You can bet they will enforce the naked shorting against Banks.
PPT has never before been this transparent.
baby lets get it over with. For now +10% long everyday or 39 on VIX.
My favorite radio line for today "If AIG can fail well.... why not GE"
I wish I was trading in lot sizes to move any stock ,particularly POT :o
It does follow it's internals pretty well. I only had a short period of time early this summer to try day trading and I focused on POT. Unfortunately my free time during and after the market is spotty so, for now I need to take a longer view and am positioning myself long .An interesting relationship is TNH to POT they where functioning some what inverse for a while.
Bank Safe Sound Ratings
Pick your bank and see how it rates.
Just ran into this don't really know how accurate but may be of interest.
http://www.bankrate.com/brm/safesound/select.asp?insttype=0
What inning 3rd or 6th,7th Several thing that have troubled me about a comparison to the 2000-03 Bear.
From the SnL on the markets define a trend line which I use to define the spine of the purple fork.
From 1995 to 2000 the market shot off acceleration away from the Purple TL in an unsustainable angle and culminating in the tech bubble. It pierces the Multi Decade TL and now travels underneath it. It’s price trajectory continues not in an excessive manner but rather contained under and following 2+ Decade growth trend line.
We clearly from this chart see that the Tech Bubble WAS the price action
Whereas the Housing bubble is not directly reflected in the price action of the Indices. But rather the general Trend of the market.
As we move from the thin blue to the purple to the thick blue (whose position has yet to be determined we see a graphic reflection of our economy and it’s slowing growth rate.
See what strikes me is the RSI which begins to froth in 1995 and stays above 70 for almost 4 years it then takes another 4 years to correct under 30. Our current takes us 1 Year above 70 and seems almost to correct in 1 year.
You see the level of the PPO and longer STO s are more in line with the S and L crisis than the Tech bubble and perhaps they should be.
IMHO they do point to more down but maybe not that much more.
From Wiki” The U.S. government agency Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation (FSLIC), which at the time insured S&L accounts in the same way the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation insures commercial bank accounts, then had to repay all the depositors whose money was lost. From 1986 to 1989, FSLIC closed or otherwise resolved 296 institutions with total assets of $125 billion. An even more traumatic period followed, with the creation of the Resolution Trust Corporation in 1989 and that agency’s resolution by mid-1995 of an additional 747 thrifts. [8]”
Look how the market reacted thru that 89-95 period magenta box.
Of interest the Tech bubble’s beginning lines up with the final resolution of the S and L crisis.
Counter point:
The opposing view might be that the war rally and housing euphoria prematurely stopped the Tech TL break from fulfilling its target and it still may want to see that lower Purple tine.
Please File this in the learning and posting out loud. Still 40% cash ,but adding exposure.
Just crossing Reuters:
"Some people say there is a woman to blame but I know ..It's the FEDs own fault."
I agree it is tenous here, I have started to deploy cash in the am and will do so again tommorrow . I expect a retrace of this up move in the morning let;s see how the markets handle it . I would preffer the multi day leg down but we are now looking at alot of possible engulfing candles.
As to POT I am in from 180 as I had previously posted.Not adding there.
Edit snaged this of of TREND's thread Bolkowski's blog also looking for a bottom here.
http://thepatternsite.com/Blog.html#P11
:) You got it the 5 min break of the (IHS)right shoulder should propel the break of the 65 min NL I assume to look for the back test for a swing entry.
I just heard that on radio and it may be why the FED did not cut. If they do that and re institute the no shorting financial news this could be contained for an elections run. IMO
For whatever it's worth POT 5min broke out of an IHS Targ 170 serious SaR 164. not at the comp so missed the breakout.
Aj so as we sit and watch this train wreck preparing to deploy cash what sectors do you conscider the best to focus on.TIA
Forgive the intrusion, just to clarify the title of the book you are mentioning is it P&F Charting by Thomas J Dorsey? I have been wanting to hone up on P&F charts TIA
A serving of both. Contain the re valuation of assets by looking at LEH as a bankruptcy.Live to play another day.Just nothing good about where we are at. I can not get to bearish about oil or fert. 50% cash bring on the sale.IMHO
(A)Distribute. They/(or their client/s) where playing it and got caught with to much on hand and did not want to hold over the weekend.
(B)Paulson gave them the same call he gave Buffet.
(C)The reason doesn't matter just know it helps them.
(D) Have no idea, ergo you do not think like a criminal
(E) All of the Above
I keep trying to write an order for NVDA @-1 but Scwab keeps rejecting it....what's up with that.<ggg>
$85 does fit within a 61 Fib retrace scenario. But I still can't get that bearish on oil.
I think I just heard Zeev say if the FA and TA dont.......
INTC revisited
The internal structures defy normal targets as the original Green Ascending Triangle break 06 . Perhaps the best fit description would be channel Magenta. Which aligns with your Targ and the historical behavior of the HIS HH TL breaks.
I would think so what stood out was the incredible volume spike(party) that boosted and caused the momo ride.
WAY OT ,OK I give up This world just getting too strange for me.
http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/living/2008/09/11/gianulias.virginity.for.sale.kovr
Just noticed this INTC about to do a 4 touch on the bottom of a 6 year Bear Pennant.I think I may have my NVDA answer.
Aj the fascination of a train wreck NVDA does it hit 5.82 or close the gap? Great company great product,this get bought out by AMD or Intel if it gets that low WAG.
In the what the F dept look at this hangover:o
Oil
Of interest $106 is the 38 Fib R of 2004 $40 breakout which was back tested same year. The 61 Fib R is in the $81 range.I really don't see 65 in the cards, 85.....maybe but doubt it the available oil fields are just not there.BWTFDIK
Looking for softness in oil pricing till Nov. After that no way. IMHO
oily Gold revisited
It amazes me that Gold is not being bought in this environment. I revisited my oily gold post to look at the channel and possible targets(it does refresh). Back of the envelope calc. Bottom channel (5) could be tagged at Oil 130 / Gold 650 , Or Upper channel (11) could be tagged at Oil 65 / Gold 715. My bet is at O 130 G 650 BWDIK. I still can't get to bearish on oil.
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Great Bot Charts Trend thanks.
Not to step in on a conversation but the last sentences says it all.IMO
" If the economy were to go into a significant recession, an overcorrection would be not only possible, but likely."
You got to believe in Black boxes when you see something like that.
Maybe I,m too bearish but when ever we have seen a double top off of a multi year touch trend line, in this environment they have morphed into head/shoulder patterns with the head developing under the largest volume. Also the negative apex of the MACD histogram is usually not the price low. IMHO
I see a descent bottom on NYA lower low on lower volume but the VIX does not convince me some of the STO look to be asking for higher highs .PMCS after being wipped so many times I feel reticent to buy breakouts in bears.