shtirlitz you're talking fundamentals. You are absolutely on target that debt is out of control and the economy is in for a torturous ride. Nothing you have said, however, prevents the rally Zeev is looking for. He may be dead wrong regarding the timing but your scenario in no way precludes his rally. There is plenty of money on the sideline (in money markets, bonds and bond funds) for a rally. There are plenty of "boyz" ready and willing to goose the market, scare the living hell out of the shorts, and scare up some of that "safe" money.
Zeev isn't presaging an end to the bear. Only a politically engineered interlude. People are not yet out of money. But, many sure have lost any affection for the market. I remain unconvinced that he is correct. COMPX will have to break above 1459 for me to buy his scenario. I look for that to be challenged before we break below last month's lows...
In the mean time I think you have to give the devil his due and watch tentatively until he is proven wrong.