Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Hi smartone.....I agree with your thought, but with an exception:
1. Yes, when Israel gets ready to strike, they will not warn. The warning now is to rachet up pressure on Iran to be more forthcoming with International oversight.
2. Unless Iran does an about face......Israel will be compelled to strike. Compelled is not too strong a word..Israel simply cannot let a mortal foe, only 600 miles away, have nuclear weapons. Strike they will, without concrete guarantees that Iran is not going to develop warheads.
3. The major question, I think, is not the probability of a strike..but the timing. It is evident that they will strike on Bush's watch. I don't agree with the timing of before the election for obvious reasons, given the anti-war sentiment.
Expect a strike between Nov 15-Jan 15, imo. regards.
Elephants roaming Kansas......what more proof could the kookies want of global warming??
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,363581,00.html
Hi smart......I'm still here..listening to the wisdom here, and trying to stay on the right side of the moves. I work hard at staying disciplined..but I'm kicking myself because I let the big down of a week ago put me on the wrong side..and the system told me to wait for confirmation. Dang me..Dang me. Whipsaws are big profit-reducers and I got whipped.
I hope you held long through that downdraft, and profitted handsomely.
Your guy, Barack, looks pretty hot right now. We'll see if the American voters are ready to move that far left, when all the issues are fully vetted. One thing he has is the big media behind him.........of course that didn't help Mondale or McGovern..who were nearly as far left as Obama. We will all survive whichever way it goes..it just means rich guys like Gleno will get a shorter haircut at tax time (grin).
Fox...thanks for notice of your V signal going long. I have an intraday trend change to long..but discipline forces me to see that change into the close before I take action. Regards.
Hi Be...it's interesting to read your comments, along with the others who are trading intraday. You guys are really quick on the trigger.....and I'm sure profitably, too.
My trend is a bit longer...and both the RUT and the S&P Mid-400 remain on a negative trend at the close...so that's where my money is too.
The more I see the methods of others, the more I become aware that there are any number of ways and systems to make money in the market. Good luck to you and all others in their favorite system. Regards.
re: the Clintons..agree they are scumbags..and two of a kind. I understand they met at college when both were dating the same girl.
There was some anger among the Obama backers that she used yesterday, which was intended to focus the news on Barack, to announce or leak her willingness to be the VP, and thus put news and attention on herself.
Well, let the real battle begin..I expect there are some swift-boat ads to come that may take some of the luster off Obama. It will be an interesting time.
Fox...you do some impressive work. Thanks for sharing the chart. Regards.
be..I think that's the way to play it. The short-term trend switched about 30 minutes ago, and while there is always a chance of a whip-saw..I am in the new trend. Best Wishes to you.
The tortoise (myself), amongst all the hares here, finally sees the light..my price reversal hit, and I am joining the darkies......oh, wait...that's racist, isn't it?
Yes, congrats to all the good traders on this board..and you are included of course, Gleno. Today is a day to give some back for me..but I have placed an order to reverse if the price hits. Cheers.
Yeah...just like I don't have a clue what the blue line means in hockey. I've never cared about the game enough to learn the rules..icing(?)..there are a lot of fans though, especially our Canadian friends..so it's probably a good game if you understand the rules.
Well..hello there....Bill Clinton may have an out-of-control anger problem?, and there is reason to think he has been seeing women privately on road trips?? As Gomer always said: SUR-PRISE!
http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/06/01/bill-clinton-fights-back-against-brutal-vanity-fair-article/
Hillary is mad as *ELL at the dem leaders...threatening to contest the credentials of the Mich and Fla delegates at the convention. Woo Hoo! What fun that would be! Can that bunch of party hacks do anything right? And..they want to be in charge of the country?? What a hoot.
Another reason to vote for Mac: "Academy Award-winning actress Susan Sarandon says "anywhere but here" if Republican John McCain wins November's election. She says she will "be checking out a move to Italy. Maybe Canada, I don't know. We're at an abyss."
However, celebrities in the past do not have a stellar track record of making good on threats to flee if their candidate loses. Numerous stars vowed to pack up if George W. Bush won the 2000 election, including Barbara Streisand, Martin Sheen, Alec Baldwin and even Sarandon's long-time boyfriend Tim Robbins."
Oh please, please, leave...leave us forever, go wherever..just leave and don't come back..please.
Hi Ollie..yeah, it's always a nervous time when you're in the 2X funds. Moving between UWM and TWM depending on the direction has been very good for me. I have used a 2 box reversal on P&F charts as part of the determination of a trend change over a number of years (rather than the default 3 box reversal)....it has helped me stay with the trend.
I think the Renko charts may prove even better as a way to ride the trend. If you haven't looked at them yet..they are one of the price displays available on StockCharts. Regards.
la inventory...."Why doesn't congress (the dems) allow drilling in the gulf. Yet they scream about bush doing nothing about high energy!"
I don't understand women a lot of times, and I don't understand the dems almost all the time.....I just flat out, don't.
Since I can't understand them, or the way their mind works..I just have to treat them, for personal mental health reasons..as a comedy..a hoot..a not-to-be-taken-seriously group.
If you can look at them as "Saturday Night Light" they become bearable, and the source of hilarity and entertainment....good luck if you continue to try to understand them. Regards.
No..I don't know what the stocks dropped and added will be. I think it is a committee that selects the stocks following some guidelines on various financial parameters. I think some of the relative weakness of the RUT recently may have been due to some financials added in the last configuration. I have been shorting the RUT in the downtrend periods because of it's weakness relative to the Q's. The only way I know to find out ahead of the announcement in late June would be to watch unusual volumes traded..because there will be some re-positoning by institution managers going on.........yeah, I know..why should they know ahead of the announcement?
My comments were more directed to the fact that price (shown well by P&F) has been calling the rally time after time....and in the same way, when a real change in trend occurs, price activity will tell us. If we try to front-run that trend change we may or may not be right. Good luck and Regards.
continuing the bull or bear views..how can anyone look at the P&F charts of the RUT and have missed the runup? There was breakout after breakout during that run...I posted many of them...someone snidley said, after about the third such post, "so what?".........well, indeed, so what. Note the "new" triple top breakout on Thursday. Ignore it if you choose.
BTW, the stocks included in the RUT2000 are being re-jiggered from now through the end of June..about 40 to change, I think.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=UWM,P&listNum=1
Gleno..the linked post is from a thread MrNatural visits....warning..it may be dangerous to your heart, since it's a pretty bullish outlook by ajt. regards.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=29638510
Yeah, I would echo what Mr. Natural said...we are really just guessing, (like everyone else?)...it's nice to have a longer view..sometimes it might keep you in a profitable trade, or out of a losing one. My real view is day to day. I try to position, either at the close, or at the next day open, the amount I will risk on a particular side. I am usually about 25% to 75% committed to one direction or the other..only occasionally do I go heavier than that. I diversify not only among instruments, but also among trading strategies...which means I may be part in cash for an extra day or so, waiting for confirmations. Just a philosophy that works for me....I always was dull..never the life-of-the-party type, if you know what I mean. Just.............dull.
natural..nice chart. It has certainly done well..and anyone with a little patience could not have failed to make money following it's cycle calls.
I don't see anything in my work that would negate that charts call for a positive June. My SPX target of 1480 plus or minus, before a meaningful correction occurs,... is still unmet....a positive June could get close enough to that to satisfy me.
Your chart looks quite professional..do you have a site or service somewhere? regards.
There have been good, helpful postings here about the new Apple 3G phone..and their intro..I think June 9.
Thinking out loud. The smart money has already poured into Apple..but there will always be those who don't get the word until late..and may be buying next week.
The announcement will probably be a sell-the-news event. Plans are always subject to change..but I think I will probably be long at least through the first few days of next week..and then at least sell off half of the longs by the end of the week.
Cycles are trying to push the market higher..so any drop may once more be shallow, but probably represent a buying opportunity on the long side...all imo, etc.
Gleno...how much do you have? (blood, that is..they will leave you 1.5 pints..just enough to survive, perhaps).
Foot..thanks for the lol...I would hate to think I stepped on your toes about realtors making big money. In my somewhat limited experience, realtors earn their money and then some. But, what a difference between realtors...a few years ago, we listed some building lots with a woman who was slovenly in her appearance and dress, and apparently the same in her profession. There was zero activity or interest generated in finding buyers. When the contract expired we cancelled with her. My wife had made acquaintance with a young lady realtor through a quilt guild...we were immediately impressed with her demeanor and signed a contract. Within a few weeks we had serious buyers identified, and received more for the land than we were willing to accept. When time came last year to list our old house, we used her again......and once more, she found buyers, qualified them, and sold them on the attributes of the house so that we received a better price than we expected. I'm sold. Regards.
I am glad to see Pete Miles stepping up his posting, following the loss recently of Airedale88. Pete is a good technician on Hurst.
Follow up to his post on the Russell a couple days ago..which proved to be spot-on. fwiw, and all that.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=29641107
FootQ........oh, oh.......there are people plotting to cut your lucrative realtor fees, in the same way discount brokers cut trading costs. Dang!...just when things start to look good, something bad happens.....
http://news.yahoo.com/s/usatoday/20080529/cm_usatoday/onebrightsignemergesinagloomyhousingmarket;_ylt=ArFbus5Utu4XyzooMppz5I.s0NUE
Hi Dan..no doubt experience counts..I have made every dumb mistake in the book, and continue to make them, just not as often.
I did take note of your health issue that you shared with the board. While we are so anonymous on the net, yet we can be friends...I know many hope as I do, that you will get some relief from what must be great pain.
I hope the back pains are not aggravated by pangs of remorse for your vote that helped Obama carry your state (grin).
I knew it was a Republican state government in Fla...but didn't realize it was the same in Mich. That makes it even richer!...lol..Operation Chaos at Rush's finest..now if there are just some groups preparing swift boat ads on Obama..I wonder if it will prove true that a great-uncle liberated a prison camp in WWII. The story about his Uncle liberating Auschwitz was de-bunked in short order. I mean..how do you say Uncle, when his mother had no brothers. Is he losing his bearings?? Is he just fuzzy headed? (and yes, there is a double entrende there that I expect the Republicans to use at some appropriate point)........and since the dems opened the can by using "losing his bearings" against Mac..how can they complain.....of course they will..and bitterly too. They are a bitter party. Regards.
Gleno....well, I don't trade nearly as much as most here..my trades usually last a couple days to a couple weeks. I think if you will look back over the log of my posts, you will find suggestions I have given about the intermediate-term direction of the market. Short term..like next hour or so..I have no idea..I'm not sure if anyone consistently does. Regards.
hey blasher..I know you guys are very good traders. Yes, perhaps personal biases do come into play and affect our trades.
I have played the market a long time..it has paid for an early retirement..a number of international trips with the wife, and a new house I built last year on a golf course. Please forgive the bragging...I fully realize all blessings come from God. The point I wanted to make is that in all those years, I have always found a whole bunch of things that are scary about investing in the market...there is always, always, a bunch of bad news around. Cycles and trends have worked for me....but I know there are a lot of ways to make money (and lose money) in the market. Regards.
rich..lol......hasn't it been a great ride on the Presidential elections?! Except for the Clinton years, which will be viewed as a stain on history of the US forever, .....it has been absolutely great. The angst of the left over Nixon, and Reagan, and dubya, has been priceless. The Supreme Court decision on the Fla electoral votes in 2000 will probably never be duplicated in terms of watching the liberal media wring their hands. lol. what a hoot. And, I have no malice towards the liberals, just the same astonishment that FootQ expresses sometimes like: how can intelligent people support and endorse some of the cr** that comes from the fringes of the liberal left.
Ah well...I will trundle off to cast my lone vote in November for McCain....watch the results, and either chortle at the dismay of the dems if Mac wins..or shrug, and move on. Regards.
smart..congratulations on your profit. On another subject..it's hard to believe the dems shot themselves in the foot so badly in their treatment of Fla and Mich delegations. Surely they will change their party rules to prevent that from occurring again.
Despite themselves, they (the dems) are in a good position to win the White House....although, it might be pretty close, imo. Regards.
This is a question for the board...from someone trying to understand..this does not pertain to any one trader here..it seems to be a rather common theme for the board. Please don't take it as a smart-a$$ question..
1. Why are most short-term (intraday) traders here shorting the market? Why are you trying to catch counter-moves, rather than trading with the trend? Have you found that to be more lucrative? I know that reversals are often sharp..but that is true in both directions.
2. Have you tried trading in the direction of the trend, and been burned? For example, the trend since mid-March has been up..my strategy has been to more follow that trend..and when there are corrective drops, to step in going long, rather than trying to find the counter-trend tops. Maybe I'm missing something, what do you guys know that I don't?
Thanks for any crumbs of insight that can be thrown my way. Regards.
Gleno..yes, cycles are part of the rythmn of nature, and extend into most, if not all, phases of life. I agree that e-waves are especially difficult, imo.....I don't understand how the e-wave "counts" can continually change, and how there are both bullish and bearish counts at the same time. Be that as it may, if it works for some people in their trading, good for them.
I won't bore you with the history of JM Hurst..but suffice it to say he was an obvious genius..and his work in establishing the rythmic nature of stock market moves is beyond reproach.
Hurst cycles are not for the work most are doing here..where they are trying to catch short-term moves intraday on an index. Hurst cycles are longer term probabilities, and as we know, the market can move up or down over short periods of time. Those short term moves are independent of the greater trends of the cycles, and should not be confused as such.
I added the link only to speak to your question of how can this "sucker" continue to go up. Regards.
Gleno..what is going to keep this sucker going up?? Why, buyers, of course. Why would anyone buy here?? There are bargains aplenty..contrary to the hand-wringers, America is not going out of business. The alternatives to investing in the stock market are not alluring. Foreign investors especially should continue to view America as the land of opportunity.......Here is a view lifted from another site..I'm sure you agree the market moves in cycles. Regards.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=29592946
Rich...you made some good points. News shows will always focus on those with a bizzare or extreme story to tell...and those with tales of woe are always there to be found.
The truth (I think) is that for most people..they still have jobs..life is still pretty good, expecially compared to most countries/people..the high gas prices mean they may have to cut down on a few runs to the lake, or not buy the new jet-ski this summer..but life is pretty much going on as usual.
This is not an ordinary year in that it is an election year. The administration in charge always gooses the economy the best they can..generally, election years are positive for the markets through the election.
Given the status of inflation, a bank account is losing buying power day by day. Those with money to invest are inclined to choose some other instrument than cash.
No doubt there will be some summer doldrums..but my wager, if I were a longer term investor, would be a generally higher market into the election period.
Hey Sammy..it's under the Chart Attributes section..on the same menu as where you select Candlesticks, etc...
Let me know what your backtesting of a reasonable strategy might produce. Thanks.
re: mvp and Steve Norris......both are high class acts. I like to diversify, but for those with substantial accounts, putting part of it to work using mvp's guidance is pretty smart, I think.
Someone pointed out the Renko charts on Stockcharts recently. The more I look at those charts, and back test them, the more I think a viable strategy could be to simply place orders to buy and sell the long or short instrument at the reversal prices. When that price is hit..voila..you are in the new trend. It's true that whipsaws are a profit reducer, but that's true for any trend following system. Taken over a year, there are enough major to semi-major trends, that a good profit is captured. I have looked at the Q's, RUT, S&P 400, over the last 5 years with results mostly in the 50-100% returns annually....extremes in the 20%-130% level. Comments welcomed.
God Bless America!
Heck of a buying opportunity here, me thinks...if your trading window is a few days or more.
Hi blasher..yep I missed it..congrats to all who made big money on the short side today. I am counting on a dem administration to bail me out by taking care of my every need from now to the grave. Why should I worry..the poor folks are going to be living higher than the rich, after the revolution when we take away all their mansions, and make their money worthless. We're going to have Obama dollars as our new currency. Confiscate the mansions of the rich and give them to the poor..replicate the Ruskies of 1918...I would like the Kennedy compound in Mass., if it hasn't been spoken for yet.