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this pig got mud on its snout....
it dropped below the BIG $5.0 support,or at $4.93 day low.oooouuucccchhhhhhhhhhhhh.where is mommmmmmmiiiiiiiiiiii.....
iron ore to pellet to customer to being paid is a very long supply chain......
just look how much dri pellet tied up in Toledo since q1,these pellet most likely requires 12 months and more,before it was turned to HBI to customer to a/r and to cash.
how much more risk ahead,once pandemic is out of the way??big assumption by the long that there is no 2nd wave or if any,minimal impact on the business and the economy.
shorties have the upper hand,murphy's law is on their side.
this what i try to do.....
following the market(tick tape),not predicting the market.i am attached to neither bull nor bear,and my goal is simple: make $ and risk averse whenever possible.
so far,again,the stock price trend......
is not your friend.
will we see below $5.0 soon??or shorties create havoc again within days??trend says likely in both cases.
got cut off......
add:
sell
jan 21 $3.0p option can generate income of 24c-30c
jan 22 $3.0p leap can generate income of 62c-70c
and
likely collect higher income,when our "sputter cliffy" is down to $3.5-$4.0 again
then
buy stock,sell jan 22 otm cover call for 50% roi with "very low risk of blowing up".
or
net 50%-75% roi by sitting tight and wait for the next/last big correction.
agreed but not until......
2021-2022.in the mean time,back to the salt mine
ps-if this round the low is down below $3.5 again,it can be the the buy of the decade: have your dough ready.
he needs Alka Seltzer most likely........
ak steel sink hole would put mud(instead of lipstick) on the "sputter cliffy" the pig in all 2020.this is why:
are we back(down to $????) yet??
https://www.target.com/p/alka-seltzer-extra-strength-effervescent-tablets-24ct/-/A-78728729?ref=tgt_adv_XS000000&AFID=google&fndsrc=tmnv&DFA=71700000069459382&CPNG=PLA_DVM+0060H00000rHYQyQAO-Alka+Seltzer-GOOGLE+SEARCH-July-December-2020-Flight&adgroup=PLA_Alka+Seltzer&LID=700000001393753pgs&network=g&device=c&location=9031247&gclid=Cj0KCQjw3ZX4BRDmARIsAFYh7ZLBqAQcIH-0wSEA1paTagvO8t5LKi1HEAypZCvs5V_qdVeztU6a6LEaAnrtEALw_wcB&gclsrc=aw.ds
here is my guess......
because of the litigation,take it private.
this pig needs lipsticks to stop relentless/cutthroat selling.........
hurry before it cratered below the "BIG 5 BUCKS" support.oooouuuccchhhh.
as new reality sets in......
"53% Of Restaurants Closed During COVID-Lockdown Have Shuttered Permanently, Yelp Data Shows"
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/53-restaurants-closed-during-covid-lockdown-have-shuttered-permanently-yelp-data
i am sooo thirty........
need beer money for the whole month of july.
"sputter cliff" the pig is @$5.14,a new day low.
option(short):
7/10 5p 6c
7/10 5p/4.5p 4c
7/17 5p/4.5p 11c
7/24 5p/4.5p 15c
7/31 5p/4.5p tbd/bit too expensive
ps-not good for the long,the premium just went from 21c ask to 26c ask on 7/31 5p/4.5p spread,mr market just turned bearish from being neutral.
are we back yet??
current price $5.30 low of the day.
called between 9:30am - 10:30am and left message for Cari to call me back.......
asked "is it true no report and no communication,100% dark,going forward??"
going dark nuance.......
There are several levels of dark. When companies deregister from the SEC they move onto the OTC Markets group of exchanges. Some continue to file all the normal SEC reports. Some file only annuals. Some file through the official OTC Markets channel while some post reports on their own website or just mail a paper copy to shareholders. Some make all the reports and just give them out when asked. Some require proof of stock ownership and signing of a non-disclosure agreement. Some go completely dark and share absolutely no information. Some still pay for an audit while others don't.
http://www.nonamestocks.com/p/dark-companies.html
excluding the impairment charge......
my estimate:
"negative margin of 9% =100%-75%(cost)-34%(sg&a)"
vs
actual:
cost(q/q) $10.1 million(77% revenue) vs $8.8 million(69% revenue),up 8%
sg&a(q/q) $4.6 million(35% revenue) vs $3.7 million(30% revenue),up 5%
unless Sam can bend the curves of cost and sg&a ASAP,the business model is definitely NOT WORKING and LIKELY FAILING WITHIN A YEAR.
estimate:
q2 loss of $2.0 million
q3 loss of $1.5 million
q4 loss of $1.0 million
PS-coolhand:the bloating of cost/sg&a,a temporary or permanent trend to you???? is the company too risky for any conservative investors??????
need to add impairment charge of $1.7 million........
and i was still off by $0.5 million.oooppps.
from 10q:
cost(q/q) $10.1 million(77% revenue) vs $8.8 million(69% revenue),up 8%
sg&a(q/q) $4.6 million(35% revenue) vs $3.7 million(30% revenue),up 5%
impairment $1.7million
loss of $1.6 million without impairment charge
loss of $3.3 million
will the numbers be worse in q2???i think so.oucccchhhhhh.
left message on her voice mail.......
hope to hear back from her soon.will do.
contacting Cari Beck........
for confirmation;and for those who are concerned,her number is (949)-234-1999.
ppp update......
from 10q:
"On May 11, 2020, the Company received loan proceeds in the amount of approximately $89,600."
why so low????
another blunder???? no one cared........
where is the ppp loan which can be worth as high as $1+ million??did anyone know they even applied??
from another company 10q:
'The PPP was established as part of the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act ("CARES Act") in order to enable small businesses to pay employees during the economic slowdown caused by COVID-19 by providing forgivable loans to qualifying businesses for up to 2.5 times their average monthly payroll costs. The amount borrowed by the Company under the PPP is eligible to be forgiven provided that (a) the Company uses the PPP Funds during the 24-week period after receipt thereof, and (b) the PPP Funds are only used to cover payroll costs (including benefits), rent, mortgage interest, and utility costs. The amount of loan forgiveness will be reduced if, among other reasons, the Company does not maintain staffing or payroll levels."
nice article with a less pessimistic view.......
my only concern:
you are assuming the management would do its job finally for a change.first challenge: will there be a CC?first sign/confirmation/failure to watch.
WTF,no end in sight,no accountability of the recent past:
1 3+ years of endless floundering of smart mirror endeavor,misinformation,and pure lie.
2 ego trip,money to the consultants,money to the publishers,endless money to prop up the mirror,and nothing would stop it to work on this dud.
3 0.43c option to employees as incentive compensation,days before the breaking bad news.
plus
once transparent,is it matter its demise is 2q or 4q??will you hold on to the stock and stay long and further enjoy the pain of continuing collapse????
again,the fact is:
after 3+ years of tinkering,the unit sale is ONLY ONE SMART MIRROR A DAY.AND NO 45 UNITS INVENTORY.ooouuuucccchhhhhhhhhhhhh.
MMMMMMOOOOOMMMMMMMMMYYYYYYYYYYYYYY......
Salve was spot on.........
for the hopeful longs,you have been warned repeatedly,and time to pay the piper.now the "known unknown" is known.
from Bruchro:
"Salve, what evidence do you have that the smart mirror is a debacle?
Have you seen any sales numbers? Has the quarterly report been released?
Or is this just your opinion?"
earlier from Salve:
1) CAPC has not reduced their physical dependency on the China supply chain! Transshipping product for final assembly in another Asian country to reduce import tariffs was a political measure which avoids neither the Chinese manufacturers nor their signature virus.
2) That the Trade Wars in any way are a boon to the business's sustainability is a non sequitur.
3) I believe survivability of the company is in doubt; the recent ongoing stock price of ~0.15 had been artificially maintained only through continuous and ongoing manipulation.
4) The current smart mirror debacle may finally send this poor beast to the knackers.
2nd round of deeper drill down and all about damage control now on......
10q 3/31/20:
cash $2.5 million
revenue(usa) $48k
revenue(international) $100k
inventory $13k(43 smart mirrors max)
refined daily sale figure of smart mirror as of 3/31/20:
$48k @$600 each or less than 1 unit sold per day in q1 20.this is why there will be no CC: bubble popped and too embarrassing to face its royally "screwed" investors.
6/30/20 10q estimate:
cash $1.5 million
less than 1 unit sold per day,no inventory.
9/30/20 10q estimate:
cash $0.5 million(excluding employee reduction charge)
less than 1 unit sold per day,no inventory.
or
business model on a daily basis until its insolvency/demise:
$0.1k gross income(20% gross)
$13k expense
gives a $12k negative burn rate per day.
if price is high,get out,and get back in soon at half the price.any sale volume of 50K+,would likely crash the price down to 4-5c for good.
good eye and yes sir.....
now i know why it was too chieeeeepppp(for a 25c daily volatility).ouuuuccchhhh.
had my ass kicked.no beer money this weekend,a long and dry weekend to be.ouchhh again.
if it failed,try again.
are we back yet?
only silver lining that i can see and low probability.....
all the fake news were to buy more time and to prop up the perception everything is "A OK",but for what??
just may be,again low probability,more times were needed to get a box customer onboard to carry their smart mirrors.
death knell of the smart mirror........
confirmation:
Inventories $13,426(from 10q 20)
or
that was 45 units(@300 cost) of smart mirrors MAX in the warehouse.
or
at the end of 3/31/20,they knew the smart mirror charade was over.
ps-for q2,the revenue from the smart mirror is highly probable to be capped at 45 units.
what a chichen sh*t loser would do.........
no CC.
good eye.....
they(management) are in PANIC mode,anything and more lies are possible and likely.
or
for the last 3 years,the coverup and F**KUP were HUMONGOUS.
or
3-4c for a shell company and soon.
6 phases of a failed project/company......
i believe we are at 3&4,and with 5&6 being carry out in insolvency.
https://www.smart-jokes.org/six-phases-project-management.png
ps-a sad day for the gullible longs,you been played and how did you let this BS gone on for so long??
caught misleading investors again for nothing and 88 days left on death clock..........
i believe smart mirror endeavor is over,unsustainable,its advertising expense is more than all revenue,on a quarterly basis.
"Advertising and promotion expense was $188,808 and $171,457 for the three months ended March 31, 2020 and 2019, respectively."
1q 2020:
revenue $149k or 95% drop q/q
net loss of $573k(with a tax credit of $573K)
https://www.otcmarkets.com/filing/html?id=14256165&guid=_cdFUqWqs_Jly3h
vs
a stupid misleading lie to be popped in days
"revenue reducing by approximately 80% which has necessitated further research and disclosures."
https://www.otcmarkets.com/filing/html?id=14243280&guid=8cdFUFJoKOQbx3h
or
rate of smart mirror sale are 3.3 units per day,assuming no legacy sale.This is a confirmation,the longs hope of a smart mirror miracle was a fantasy,and the financial crush would be excruciatingly painful.3c-5c next week.ooouuuccchhhh.
death clock:
88 days =90 days(sep 31/20)-2 days(into july) until insolvency.
wish i knew.....
waiting for the next er and hope to see a material change on the revenue side.
beer money play........
need longs add more lipsticks.please.
7/3/20 option expiring tomorrow:
$5.5c @2c.woowww.chiiiiieeeepppppp.
ps-shorties are certain longs are useless,before the end of next trading day that is, our "sputter cliffy" is a pig that can't fly above the $5.50,and no lipsticks can help.
any one care to guess eps?
my 1q 2020 numbers are:
negative margin of 9% =100%-75%(cost)-34%(sg&a)
revenue $11.5(q/q drop of 11%)
or
loss of around $1 million,eps=-3c
no lipsticks on the pig "sputter cliffy"......
current price is $5.22.what are the chances of going below $5.00 before this weekend?? 50%.
are we back yet?
clarification of nt-10q..........
coming bombshell??
(3) Is it anticipated that any significant change in results of operations from the corresponding period for the last fiscal year will be reflected by the earnings statements to be included in the subject report or portion thereof?
x Yes
my comment on the seeking alpha article under ivfh......
in and out of this company during the last 5 years,my recommendation is to stay away,here are why
1 management is Sam-centric
2 Sam is irascible and selfish,his ego and impulsive behavior are a bad mixture of "hot head" entrenched within him,believe me there are plenty challenges and landmine ahead to make a fool out of him
3 exception,it my take 3 years to kick in,to see some adult control in the boardroom by the latest director.
again,3 years is a long wait,and in the meantime get use to a selfish management and Sam's abuse.
most probable sale of 5-10 smart mirrors a day,assumed the legacy line had about 1/3 of the revenue.......
with revenue dropped down to 80%,applied either to mirror or led,or a combination of both,the company is likely to lose $1.0 million this q,death knell of capc.
unless it cuts sg&a by 50% asap,the insolvency would be knocking on its door around the month of september.
bottomline:
both product lines are in precarious trouble,cash and time are running out,and the management is still in denial.how about the long??get out now and we buy it back at half the price around 3c-4c,all within 3-6 months time.
why 3c-4c?
company would be broke,shutting down the mirror by default,cutting 50%+ of its employees to conserve cash,and being a copy is the only viable option left;or only intrinsic value left is in the relationship it has with the big box stores,nothing more and nothing less.
not much what Sam wanted,90% probable.......
from today's filing:
(3)Is it anticipated that any significant change in results of operations from the corresponding period for the last fiscal year will be reflected by the earnings statements to be included in the subject report or portion thereof?
? Yes ? No
ps-last call to get out above 30c??
drilled down a bit deeper........
based on revenue of $600k
mirrors sold per day:
100% 13pc/day
75% 10
50% 7
25% 3
0% 0
best case(100%) with gross margin of 20%:
13*500*20%=$1.3K of operating income
vs
daily expense of $7k
or
$5k-$6k losses per day.
here is the sobering part:
break even number= $7000/(500*20%) or it needs to sell 70pc/day to make whole.
here is the challenge:
sale of 70pc/day likely requires 2 month of inventory backup(turn over rate of 6),this would require a capital of $1.2-$1.5 million(assume $300-$325 per unit cost).
best case scenario and associated problem:
cash likely down to $2.0 million now,even if the sale eventually can be up to 70pc/day,the burn rate of $500k-$750k per q,does not give time for it to work.
most probable:
unit sale of mirror is between 5-10 per day,way off from the break even of 70 per day,then what?????????
ps-i believe no CC,the management is in shock and covid19 is the cover,90% probable.
newbie to the board.......
have followed the company on and off for 3+ years.I like the revenue trend and it is the margin expansion that pulled me in,and finally i pulled the trigger.if it can further bend the cost curve below 79%,we are likely have a "good story stock" going forward.
happy to see it all worked out for the longs.cheer.