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I'm learning a bit more about this... apparently it is a pre tax value of reserves... discounted by 10% ...Pretax Value -10%
So, to me.. the important questions are When was this PV10 calculated... and using what assumptions?
Sometimes... I look in the mirror and say: "I know that guy, but I can't remember his name!"
I thought you were saying you were confident that it would succeed, but a typo or two made it look like the opposite. Thanks for the clarification. Let's see... 3 out of 1,000 failing would make the odds... 99.7% chance of success... If I'm doing the math correctly!
Only some 200k shares traded so far today... volume WAY down. I think most people are on the sidelines waiting to see what happens with this LOI before committing one way or the other.
Durk... can you redo your "BTW".... From what you wrote I can't tell if you think the LOI will succeed or fail. From what you've written it sounds like you expect it to fail.
It's not clear to me what the pv10 value actually means. In looking it up... my understanding is that it's a pre tax value and doesn't take into consideration many costs associated with doing business.... I am also wondering... IF this valuation means that in the lifetime of these wells... their total production would make them worth this much. IF so... then what kind of annual income might they produce? I know that the price of oil/gas fluctuates a LOT... so any estimates could change drastically depending on market conditions. Also... I wonder what market conditions were like WHEN this PV10 value was set.
I was just doing a google search for other bulletin boards with EXBX on it. A few of them showed up from an earlier time... like 2006 when the Issued shares numbered only 11 million... sheesh. There was also a LOT more discussion of products that have clearly fallen off the radar.
This stock really is a roller coaster. Amazing to see the rebound from death.... and all that excitement.. followed by the hurry up and wait to see what will happen. I am most interested in the details. Like... WHAT will they get for returning 150 million shares? I hope not much, except the chance for what they do own... to survive and flourish. I'm afraid they'll get much more.... Like Warrants, that would most likely push up the issued shares to a new high. I hope not. This company needs some concessions to survive. Being near the end of issuable shares creates a situation where there aren't many alternatives to increase the number of shareholders... like the dreaded reverse split. Clearly they are not proposing anything like that right now, but I'm looking to the future.
The market clearly does NOT like uncertainty.... So... not much will happen until we know what kind of income to expect from these wells.... and if we'll need more financing to bridge the gap until we become self supporting.... what THOSE details might be... and, as I mentioned, WHAT will those who return shares get in exchange.
I think we'd ALL like to have these answers... pronto, Tonto.
OH.... and it appears that exbx is now on the pink sheets. Is this true?
I'd have to say.... um... On or before the 29th! lol
On another note... looks like trading is in a "wait and see" holding pattern. Only 1/2 million shares traded so far.... and no movement in the SP. I'm thinking MANY are waiting to see what happens with the proposed deal. My opinion is that it is more or less a done deal or we wouldn't have heard about it. That AND the ULTRA high trading at or under one cent a while back DOES suggest that some were/are in the know... and that this WILL happen. Just my opinion. Can't WAIT to see this perform when it becomes a done deal.
Here's something I've been wondering about. The NRs all say that the deal with the oil/gas wells will happen first... THEN the 150 million shares will be returned. If this is the case... then they would receive approximately 45 million shares which is more or less 10% of outstanding shares at this point... THEN when the 150 million are returned... that would mean that they would own OVER 10% of the company... any comments on this? Think they are considering this a package deal and that they are going to base their 9.9% on the outstanding shares AFTER the return of the 150 million?
What many people here are not keeping in mind... is that exbx will have to give something for those income producing wells. My understanding is that they were going to give them slightly less than 10% of the company. IF that is after the return of 150 million shares... which would reduce the outstanding shares to about 308 million.... So 30 million shares would be an accurate number to assume. So... After the return... and after paying for the wells with shares..there would be about 338million outstanding shares.
The OTHER point... is that it isn't clear if these wells are generating enough income to support operations at EXBX until it becomes profitable. I doubt that these wells are producing much if any income presently due to the much lower price of gas.... SO... what I am thinking is that the equity in these wells would be used to secure a loan to bridge the gap until sales meet expenses. This, in my view, is a rather brilliant solution to keep the boat afloat AND reduce dilution... at least temporarily.
One more thing we have yet to learn... is WHAT is the motivation for those 150 million shares to be returned? WHAT will they get in the long run if/after the company becomes self supporting? I suspect there will be warrants associated with the return of those shares.... Don't you?
I agree... IF they can pull this off (and I truly believe they will)... the SP will appreciate drastically. What I'm wondering is.. just how far it can go by the end of the year. What's your guess/estimate as to what this might do... with the oil/gas wells in hand... 150 Million shares returned... AND operating cash secured....?
My understanding is that the LOI would be firmed up by today.... and the closing AND therefore the 150 Million shares of stock return deal(s) would both be concluded by the end of the month.
You're probably right... however ETURD has it at .0511 bid... .055 ask. Just dropped to .05 bid .054 ask. With positive news, I'd expect this to run up to .08 or so, though.
We are all still waiting for news that the LOI will be acted on and those 150 million shares will, therefore, BE returned. Usually EXBX puts out their NRs for the day before the market opens... Nothing yet this morning... doesn't mean it's a go or a bust... but, as we all know, the market hates not knowing.
I, for one, am THRILLED that this stock has been resurected from the dead. Wish I'd bought a million shares for at a penny a share... but, didn't have 10k to spend at the time, nor the belief that it would be money well invested. Oh well... another opportunity missed!
My thoughts on this acquisition of producing wells is... that IF they can pull this off... I would expect EXBX to put the wells up as collateral to borrow operating cash... INSTEAD of issuing more stock. The lower the float... the better we'll all do. Thoughts on this?
Unfortunately, it gives me the same feeling.
Short term are under a year.. Long term over a year, or at least that is my understanding.
Not sure what to make of this tweet. Hopefully Sam is just being very agressive...
Exobox_SecurityRT @SamVR: Calling all my security friends: Giving everyone 1 free scan by ExoDetect - ping sam.vanryder @ exobox.com for details!
about 18 hours ago from TweetDeck
If you do it right.. they're gains... SHORT TERM capital gains, in fact.... so you'd better be GOOD at it! And, yes... it can get complicated, however most online trading services give you a downloadable record that can be plugged into Turbotax or other such tax programs.
Glad to see that you guys have a healthy dose of skepticism... but I don't think we'd be seeing what we are seeing if larger forces were feeling threatened by EXBX. I think we'd more likely see shares being snapped up and the SP would go up. Or.. a buyout offer.. But clearly... today something really weird is going on. You simply do NOT have this much uninterrupted buying going on at a fixed price unless there is something going on that we don't know about. It makes me nervous.
I mean... 2 MILLION shares bought ONLY 400k Sold... and FINALLY the ask moves up a token .002
What am I missing?
This really is unusual behaviour. About 1.5 million shares bought.... ALL for .06 a share. About 400k shares sold.... MOST of them for the same amount. I simply don't get why the mms would sell so many at the same ask. Is it Lucky Friday for those investors who have ANY money left? Are the mms sure that they'll be able to buy more shares to cover for less? NOBODY got any ideas?
Over 1,000,000 shares sold and they can't get more than .06 for a share? Sheesh. SOLID buying and NO change in the ask. WHAT is up with that? I mean... really. WHAT is going on?
I am sure that the reporting is less than 100% accurate, however... clearly there was a LOT of selling this morning followed by some even heavier buying... Unfortunately at bargain basement prices.
WOW... one trade... 500,000 shares bought for .06 The trading of this stock is unlike any other I've seen. Selling all morning... then pop.... somebody is buying. go figure.
Do you recall what Gary's question was... and if he was able to "plug" Exobox to any extent during his question?
A year end report takes significantly more work than a quarterly report. There is more time allowed to get annual reporting completed than quarterly. So... it shouldn't be a full three months after seeing an annual report that we should see a first quarter report. Make sense?
Since the quarter we're in Ends Oct. 31st I'd be VERY surprised to see any numbers before mid December, BUT... that doesn't mean it couldn't happen sooner. I am HOPING that the numbers will be so good that management will make every effort possible to report as soon as is humanly possible after the end of the quarter. Historically, they haven't been reporting quickly, BUT they haven't had any revenues to report until recently either... so there really wasn't any motivation to report until they had to.
Regarding the overnight upgraded exchange listing...
Monkeys COULD fly outta my... indelicate orifices too! As much as I'd love to see that happen overnight, I think it's going to take another year or so for that to happen.
Some on here are convinced that the ONLY thing that will make this move... is reported revenues. I differ slightly from that.. in that I think it comes down to the degree of certainty of increased revenues. For example... IF a large contract with some government agency... or a "Dell" were to be announced... I think we'd see a BIG pop. Additionally, IF there were a buyout interest or offer... of course, we'd also see the PPS run on up.
We can all hope and believe whatever we want.... but the market will do what it wants.
I agree with your assesment of the situation... And can't help but wonder what the SP would be like if there werent so many insiders selling tons of shares at what I feel certain will be looked back upon as ridiculously low levels... to maintain or establish a lifestyle. Some people just want to have it NOW... no matter what the cost.
Gladly we will very soon begin month two of our first full quarter of revenue generation... I know that there are MANY of you who have been hanging on for several years. I have only been invested for a few months... and I must admit that I'm as impatient as can be... to see the sales numbers be revealed. I REALLY like this "channel partner" approach... (even though the a "channel partner" sounds more like someone that you'd watch a certain network affiliate with than a program). I think that it's crucial for us to come out of the gate with a huge marketing effort... if only to just gain share. There will certainly be others attempting to do what Exobox does and will do.... So it is very important for us to establish market dominance in our niche... I think this IS being done.... So, now all I need is time.. and Patience. OH darn.
More insider selling? Selling is about 50 to 1 Sells versus buys. Ouch. Over half a million shares sold for about 10k bought. I believe that there are more insiders just dumping some shares to raise some cash. Quite discouraging, nonetheless.
So, today you have your "Positive Investor" hat on. They MUST be selling something.... the question is how much? And... how much will that grow in the next couple of quarters? I don't expect to see much reported revenue for the last quarter of this year... that ended in July, but... the next 2 consecutive quarters should most likely give a good idea of what kind of growth to expect. That being said... it is quite conceiveable that some large contract could also appear at any time, blowing any previous performance out of the water. I'm hoping for THAT scenario.
My understanding of the two products is as follows:
Exodetect is a tool to go out and look EVERYWHERE on the internet to find ANY information that might have leaked from unlimited sources on the internet. I presume that in order to use this service you have to come up with certain search terms, etc. to direct your search.
Exowatch, on the other hand, I believe is specifically geared towards web page issues. A company with a website might have a more focused set of issues associated with security, that can be handled with this, most likely less expensive offerning.... Also, I would expect these Exowatch clients to also use Exodetect on a more limited basis when they find out just how much information of theirs is out there for anyone to see.
Can anyone who might actually know about all this please comment on this?
Very interesting article... seems that we are in the right place at the righ time for internet security issues to propel us into the stratosphere!
On another note... SOMEBODY really needs to tell Gary to proofread his article...
You do not "shutter" when presented with scary news.. unless you work in construction.. you do, however... SHUDDER... as in shake. There are SEVERAL other gramatical errors in his post... It makes him look sloppy in presentation, and less intelligent that I'm sure he is. It simply reflects poorly on Exobox.
Examples... "identify-theft" I'm pretty sure he meand Identity-theft
"plethora of person student information" PersonAL.... and so on. Geeze.. take a minute and put your best foot forward.
In looking at delayed trades... looks like the first 300k shares traded were by far buys. I'm still surprised that the SP didn't go up at least a little more on such buying pressure... Then the SP took a dive... looks like most of the next 300K shares traded were by far sells.... so, I'd have to agree with you on the insider dumping thingie. I can't wait for the time when they FINALLY either run out of shares for sale.... or realize that the shares are worth more to keep than to sell. If/when this stock becomes marginable..... I think we'll see a LOT less selling going on.
Clearly I should simply go 180 degrees against my instincts with regard to investing in the stock market. Here we have some REALLY good news.... a second product, that is something that I see as having a very good liklihood of being bundled in an OEM reselling environment... and what happens....???? the SP takes a DIVE!
I would have expected the pre-market bid to be SIGNIFICANTLY higher than .064.... that's for SURE.
Actually, I DO agree with you for the most part. Although, I keep thinking about some of the businesses/agencies reported to be at the "mixer"... and compare that to some of the language in the announced marketing strategy... of reselling. One of the terms they keep using is OEM. And I keep remembering that Dell represented at the mixer. Now, don't you think that IF it were announced that Dell... or some other HUGE company like that was going to be a reseller... that we'd see a big move up in the SP?
Dunno about that... Yesterday at the last 8 minutes of trading... someone bought 1/2 million shares. Not a ton of money at today's PPS, but.... they sure did want some. Think we'll have that play again today at the close?
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