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Two negative technical signals for the overall markets:
The S&P500 @1060 ($SPX), the Dow Jones Industrial Average @9742 ($INDU)
and the Wilshire 5000 Composite Index @10987 ($WLSH), technically are
all having:
1. MACD "negative divergence," and
2. A Bearish moving average crossover.
This can be seen at www.stockcharts. com and is taught at the
Chartschool at that website.
1. A MACD negative divergence is when "the security advances or moves
sideways, and the MACD declines. N.D. are probably the least common
of the three signals, but are usually the most reliable, and can warn
of an impending peak."
2. A Bearish moving average crossover "occurs when MACD declines below
its 9-day EMA (the signal line)." This is the most common signal for
MACD. (The third signal is the "Bearish Centerline Crossover.")
These two negative signals together are a powerful indication that the
overall markets have slowing momentum and should serve as an alert to
monitor the technical situation for further clues of weakness.
Two negative signals that the overall markets are weak:
The S&P500 @1060 ($SPX), the Dow Jones Industrial Average @9742 ($INDU and the Wilshire 5000 Composite Index @10987 ($WLSH), technically are all having:
1. MACD "negative divergence," and
2. A Bearish moving average crossover.
This can be seen at www.stockcharts.com and is taught at the Chartschool at that website.
1. A MACD negative divergence is when "the security advances or moves sideways, and the MACD declines. N.D. are probably the least common of the three signals, but are usually the most reliable, and can warn of an impending peak."
2. A Bearish moving average crossover "occurs when MACD declines below its 9-day EMA (the signal line)." This is the most common signal for MACD. (The third signal is the "Bearish Centerline Crossover.")
These two negative signals together are a powerful indication that the overall markets have slowing momentum and should serve as an alert to monitor the technical situation for further clues of weakness.
Two negative signals that the overall markets are weak:
The S&P500 @1060 ($SPX), the Dow Jones Industrial Average @9742 ($INDU and the Wilshire 5000 Composite Index @10987 ($WLSH), technically are all having:
1. MACD "negative divergence," and
2. A Bearish moving average crossover.
This can be seen at www.stockcharts.com and is taught at the Chartschool at that website.
1. A MACD negative divergence is when "the security advances or moves sideways, and the MACD declines. N.D. are probably the least common of the three signals, but are usually the most reliable, and can warn of an impending peak."
2. A Bearish moving average crossover "occurs when MACD declines below its 9-day EMA (the signal line)." This is the most common signal for MACD. (The third signal is the "Bearish Centerline Crossover.")
These two negative signals together are a powerful indication that the overall markets have slowing momentum and should serve as an alert to monitor the technical situation for further clues of weakness.
PCS @ $9.90, support & resistance levels:
14.66
14.16
13.62
13.37
12.49
11.69
10.65
@$9.90 9/25/09
9.59
9.05
MYGN @ $26.96. High pole warning 9/23/09 on P & F chart.
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?MYGN
High pole warning 9/23/09 on P & F chart, "The high pole warning is given when a chart rises above a previous high by at least 3 boxes but then reverses to give back at least 50% of the rise. The reversal implies that the demand that was making the prices rise has given way to supply pressure. The pattern is a warning that lower prices could be seen in the future." from "chartschool" on stockcharts. com
On regular stockcharts. com chart, RSI @ 35, not in oversold territory yet; MACD rolling over but still in positive territory and Full STO <20, so that is "oversold," but it does not mean that MYGN could not still go lower. MA(50) $27.89, which it has crossed today, which is negative.
$30.63 (Q2-09 low)
$28.22 (pre move high)
$28.04
Resistance:
@ $26.52:
Support
$25.88 (which was the price before MYGN popped to $30.89),
$25.04 and
$24.36, which as of this time is the Q3-2009 low.
The Q2 low was $39.75. I follow J a n u s and in Q2-2009 they added 142%, +$12.4M to their holding of URS and hold 445K shares valued at about $21.1M, go to nasdaq. com to find institutional holders.
I have no position in URS. This is relatively high beta stock and we could have a correction in the all over markets after the best six months (up to August) since 1938.
T-Mobil's G4 Solution: Rent from Clearwire and PCS
http://voices.allthingsd.com/20090922/t-mobile’s-4g-solution-rent-from-clearwire-and-metropcs/
9/21/09, P & F chart "Low Pole Reversal." 9/23 close @ $10.
"The low pole reversal is seen when a chart falls below a previous low by at least 3 boxes but then reverses to rise by at least 50 percent of the fall. The reversal implies that the supply that was making the prices fall has been absorbed and demand is taking over. The pattern is an alert that higher prices could be seen in the future. The ideal buy point would be on another reversal back down to be closer to the stop loss point. This would also set up a double top breakout if the prices reverse up and break over the current column's high." from www.stockcharts.com
OT- comments on stock "analysts." "Analysis" have cost me a lot of money. The only one I put some credence in is S & P, with a "Stock Report" on an individual stock (they also have Quantitative Reports and Factual Reports which do not count) because:
1. A S & P "Stock Report" is prepared by an individual analyst at S & P and has his/her name and the date of production is in the report;
2. It has a firm rating from Strong Buy (5 stars) to Strong Sell (1 star);
3. It has a firm price target and
4. It is constantly updated with new information.
Of course the reports have much more information, but this type of "Stock Report" has all the particular information to make an informed decision on an individual stock, if you have some idea what you are doing.
"Overweight" and "outperform" are jokes, all they are saying is that they think the stock will outperform other stocks in the same sector. No true buy/sell rating and no price target. Maybe you laugh, but it took me a long time to figure this out and it cost my a lot of money.
Closed > $10 crucial psychological support level. I hope we can hold it.
Support: @ $9.96, $9.59 and the huge $9.05 (which was the post sell-off July high before our recent run >$10).
Resistance: @ $10.14, $10.71 and the huge $11.69 (which was the July low before the sell-off).
DT has the free cash flow to make this deal happen. "With the reporting of second quarter 2009 results, DT maintained its guidance for free cash flow of EUR 7.0B (equal to $10B U.S.$) and EBITDA of EUR 21B ($30B)." From S &P DT Stock Report dated 8/10/09 by Jason Willey.
Re: rumor DT buy-out of PCS. Currently PCS is CDMA technology and DT (T-Mobile) is GSM. These technologies are not compatible, the phones on one will not work on the others network. So, as the cards are laid out on the table right now, it does not make sense for DT to buy PCS.
However, PCS has already announced that in late 2010 it will launch G4-LTE technology, which will supersede CDMA. It has been said the T-Mobile is also going to with G4-LTE in the future, but to my knowledge nothing official has been announced by DT. If this is true, then this is the only way DT buys PCS and gets value out of it. JMHO
Some have projected a buy-out at $14.00, or $5B, which someone posted was about $14.20 a share for PCS. If there is a buy-out, I think $14.40 is too low. PCS spent $1.4B in Auction 66 in 2006 winning eight licenses.
Wireless providers are current under tremendous pricing pressure. Some are speculating that S is in trouble. Something will have to give in the current wireless market.
The key to remember is that these companies are cash cows (after the network expenses have ramped down). Also, in the future, the company gets paid with inflated dollars.
IMO, buy-out should be around $16.80 to $18 a share, or about $6B up. But then again, PCS is worth only what someone will pay for it.
Wireless will get bloody- Eric Savitz, Barron's:
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB125331246240824079.html?ru=yahoo&mod=yahoobarrons
PCS @ $10.14; Dow @ 9820. Technicals for PCS look good; MACD lines just crossing into positive territory; RSI still under 70, not overbought; crossed psychologically important $10 barrier today; Bollinger Bands still positive, remember "a move outside the bands calls for a continuation of the trend, not an end to it." Technical Analysis Plain and Simple by Michael Kahn; large 730K share block at very end of day on uptick, + $0.10 after hours.
Short-term support $9.50- 9.59, then the important $9.05. Resistance $10.71 (11/20/08), $11.67 and $12.07, Q1-2009 low. Hopefully we will fill the gap to about $12-$13, at this point we see strong resistance levels and PCS's positive fundamentals will have to power the stock price over those levels. $13.62 was Q2 low. I have PCS in may regular account and IRA account. At about $12.50 I might take some profits in the IRA account, no capital gains to worry about. Trying to hold PCS in regular account for one year + one day to get favorable long-term capital gains, but Mr. Market is the boss and we shall see.
Re: Dow. Look temporarily overbought and a pull back to current support level @ about 9250 might happen. Next support is @ about 9125, then 8800. As long as these support levels hold, we should be OK.
Thomas Weisel upgrade, P.T $17, @ $12.13
On Thursday September 17, 2009, 3:45 pm EDT
Companies: Comcast CorporationSynchronoss Technologies, Inc.
NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of Synchronoss Technologies Inc. got a boost Thursday after a Thomas Weisel Partners analyst upgraded the company, calling it "undervalued and overlooked" by investors. Synchronoss provides transaction management software for communications companies. Analyst Tom Roderick raised his rating on the company to "Overweight" from "Market Weight" and raised his target price to $17 from $15.
"We believe that the (2010) growth prospects for the company are brighter than we had previously given the company credit for, and we see various catalysts emerging over the course of the next 12 months," Roderick wrote in a note to investors.
The analyst said the company's growth prospects next year will likely get a boost from a rejuvenated cable TV sector. Earlier this year the company extended its relationship with Time Warner, Roderick said, where Synchronoss is now providing activation and support for all of the company's e-commerce programs. The analyst said he thinks Wall Street overlooked the importance of this relationship.
"(We) anticipate that a visible e-commerce push by Time Warner will boost Synchronoss' pipeline of business among other installed cable customers like Cablevision, Comcast and Charter," Roderick said.
Shares of the Bridgewater, N.J.-based company rose $1.49, or 14 percent, to $12.04 in afternoon trading. In the past 52 weeks, the stock has traded between $5.51 and $14.45.
@ $12.13 support/resistance levels:
$37.24 12/21/07
$33.42 1/4/08
$27.08 1/11/08
$26.38 6/8/07
$22.71 5/08
$21.32 1/18/08
$19.00 2/8/08
$16.09 3/7/08
$14.44 6/08
$13.63
resistance
@$12.13
support
$11.11
$10.34
$8.91
@ $12.13, +$1.58, +15%, 400K vol. Closed right at the $12.13 resistance level. These support and resistance levels are very general, I will need to refine them as the situation warrants, especially on the resistance levels.
$22.71 -5/08
$14.44 -6/08
$13.63
resistance
@$12.13
support
$11.11
$10.34
$8.91
$8.23
$7.85
$6.82
$5.87 52 week low
More on G4-LTE launch & possible mergers. "Some analyst have speculated that MetroPCS and its rival, Leap Wireless, might make better acquisition targets for T-Mobile USA, particularly if they all move towards LTE". Interesting!
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/09b63754-a20f-11de-81a6-00144feabdc0.html?referrer_id=yahoofinance&ft_ref=yahoo1&segid=03058&nclick_check=1
Closed just under $30 today. $28.22 big support level, which was the high July, 2009 before the run up.
Looking at this, PCS and LEAP together makes sense, in fact it be necessary for if both of them are to survive:
http://www.dailywireless.org/2009/09/16/24068/
Boost took 40% from PCS and LEAP Q2'09.
Without any new positive information MYGN should fill the gap to
$28.22, which was the high before the recent move up. This is just
technical analysis on the price movement of the stock. I have no
position in MYGN. This seems to have good support at current price of $30.00.
PCS @ $9.59. Some critical price points for PCS:
$18.98, 52 week high (double top);
$13.62, 07/09 high;
$12.07, 3/09 low (S&P 500 went to about 700, currently at about 1000);
*$9.59*
$10.71, 10/08 low ("financial crisis" after 09/08 Lehman collapse).
$9.05 was the old high in 08/09 after the sell-off before our current run, and
$7.58 is 52 week low.
ERIC is moving and shaking. S&P has a Buy rating but only an $11 price target. Two of the institutional investors I follow, Primecap (Vanguard) and Dodge & Cox are the one, two institutional holders of ERIC. I am watching this one.
Any comments on PCS? I way I see it LEAP needs PCS a lot more than PCS needs LEAP. LEAP totally blew it by rejecting PCS's offer in 9/07. Now I think PCS could be making an offer but LEAP wants more, probably a lot more, and PCS is not going to give it them. Then again, maybe PCS is not interested in LEAP.
One thing I do know, there are too many wireless service providers in ring right now. There is about 180 vendors out there. It is going to be interesting.
MetroPCS Announces Vendors for 2010 4G LTE Launch
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Unlimited-Wireless-Carrier-bw-4167195597.html?x=0&.v=1
LLY has a R&D alliance with Takeda! Just picked this up from S&P Stock Report on LLY. LLY's R&D was $3.8B in 2008. Unbelievable. Again they stole IDM for market cap of $64M!!
With all the M&A in telco I wondered if different technologies really matter, e.g. GSM/ CDMA etc. when a company is looking to buy/merger.
This is from Gearlog 9/14/09 and the first issue in the article is converging different wireless technologies, it even says the Sprint CEO regrets buying Nextel because of the difficulties in merging the two different wireless technologies:
http://www.gearlog.com/2009/09/6_reasons_why_t-mobile_should.php
Google List of U.S. wireless communications service providers to find list of companies and technology used by each.
PCS and AT&T are both based in Dallas, TX, but PCS uses CDMA technology and T uses GSM. The phones used on one technology will not work on the other.
It is a shame in some ways because Reuters reported on 9/10/09 that "national carriers like AT&T ... have been showing increasing interest in the prepaid market,
which is growing faster than the postpaid space."
IMO because PCS and T use different mobile phone technologies, a deal
between them is remote, even though they are both based in Dallas.
Does anyone know will the new G4 technology make this distinction
between CDMA and GSM moot?
"Sprint Goes Unlimited on Mobile"
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Sprint-Goes-Unlimited-on-zacks-1172068061.html?x=0&.v=1
"Deal in works?" Bloomberg News 9/11/09
"MetroPCS Communications, the Dallas based pay-as-you-go wireless carrier, rose the most in six months after Reuters reported the company is talking to advisers about possible deals. The discussions aren't about a combination with Leap Wireless, Reuters said, citing people it didn't name. Analysts have speculated about the companies joining since a merger of the contract-free wireless carriers fell through in November 2007. MetroPCS is under mounting pressure from competitors, such as Sprint Nextel, as rivals expand into the prepaid market."
$9.62 close. If we stay >$9.05, the gap to about $12.50 should be filled in due time. Reuters is reporting PCS is talking to investment bankers ... .? Tracfone is my guess, for what that is worth.
Parabolic SAR buy signal today
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?c=PCS&style=BD*******[VB20][PH0.02,0.2,0.02]
Tracfone is owned by billionaire Carlos-Slim through America Movil,
the fifth largest wireless communication provider (11.759M customers
as of 3/09). Tracfone currently rents space on the Verizon Wireless
network, which is CDMA technology, just like PCS (6.1M) and LEAP under
the Cricket Brand (4.33M). Seems to me Tracfone would want to have
its own wireless network. A buy-out and/or merger between these three
or with the other would make economic sense.
Some have speculated that DT will buy PCS. DT uses GSM technology and
the CDMA phones will not work on GSM. It does not make sense that DT
would buy PCS. JMHO
Google list of U.S. wireless communications service providers to find
the Wikipedia list of providers and the technologies each provider
uses.
needs to go >$9.05 and stay there to fill the gap to about $12.50. $9.04 is the high after the gap down to <$8.99.
PCS @ $8.88; support and resistance levels:
13.27
12.64
11.69
$9.04 huge, high post gap down from $12.50
resistance
PCS
@$8.88 9/10/09
support
$8.76
8.50
8.25
7.99
7.72
7.58 52 week low
MetroPCS Introduces Unlimited International Calling
http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/2148915/metropcs_introduces_unlimited_international.html?cat=15
http://www.metropcs.com/world/
Technicals pointing that about $8.00 is a bottom for PCS. The big question mark is will the overall market retrace some of it's gains after having the best six months since 1938 and if it does, how will PCS hold up?
PCS @ $7.72, Support1: 7.71 Support2: 6.41 from stoxline.com.
The only positive is that the volume was the lowest in four days.
Old 52 wl and all time low of $7.85 gone, new $7.71.
PCS @ $7.96 Triple Bottom Breakdown per stockcharts.com free charts, stock scans.
"A triple bottom breakdown is similar to a double bottom breakdown except that the price at which the breakdown occurred is a price that the chart retraced from two times before. This implies that the price level is a more significant area of support (area where buyers are willing to buy the stock and create demand that outstrips supply) than what is seen on a double bottom. The breakdown below this level implies that the sellers are now creating more supply than there is demand and therefore the prices are breaking down."
So again, as per previous post, IMO it is crucial that we stay above $7.85, the current 52 week and all time low. As above a "breakdown below this level implies that the sellers are now creating more supply than there is demand and therefore the prices are breaking down." If PCS breaks down and closes <$7.85 I do not know what the bottom will be for us.
$8.20 close 8/28, first positive week, +$0.20, since breakdown 8/6 from $12.69 to $8.99.
MACD trending up.
This week will be interesting, need to breakout >$8.51 and then post breakdown high of $9.06 close on 8/11. If so the gap needs to be filled to about $12.50.
If not, must stay >$8.00, if new 52 week low <$7.85, we could be in trouble.