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LOL! ClayTrader tried to warn us this was going to happen. I'm glad I took his advice and dumped my Commons earlier on the rebound to $2.80.
$FNMA Timber Alert for tomorrow. We might be heading back to the $1zzz.
End NWS, consider SPS repaid, and allow the GSEs to rebuild capital. You need all those things to come together for existing shares to have any value. That value will be derived from how much capital is required and how they are going to raise that amount of capital. Otherwise, we're all just gambling and shooting in the dark.
I think $5 is a good target. Why do you think $50+ is justifiable? Why not $3 or $6?
FACT: Sell the Pops because $FNMA always Drops. A proven trading strategy for this junk stock.
Will $1.90 hold or are we heading back to the December Lows?
Ackman likely reduced his Common exposure and Rotated to Preferreds during this last rally. Ackman's too smart to stay 80% Commons / 20% Preferreds for very long considering he's not a member of the Good Ol' Boys Club.
I wouldn't be surprised for Ackman to have gone 80% Preferreds / 20% Commons. Alas, we will not know since he doesn't have to disclose OTC holdings.
He could just keep leading the $FNMA Lemmings to the slaughterhouse by making them think he still owns Commons when, in secret, he Rotated entirely to Preferreds.
I already sold Commons. Now just holding Preferreds and waiting for the $FNMA Waterfall collapse to commence again.
#PopcornReady
At this point, what's another 10 years? Shareholders that are truly long and want the GSE's to survive should have no problems waiting another decade for resolution.
We should all want Congress to get this done right. Even if it means 20+ more years. Slow and steady, Long and strong.
Who are the Common shareholders? What is their goal? I Don't Know why they are they still invested with everything that's come to light recently. Things don't look good at this point in time.
I'm Glen, Joseph, RuudG, and countless others. According to the $FNMA Lemmings at least.
The truth is, I'm the embodiment of all shareholders combined and trying to fight for justice; however, I'm also a realist and know that Commons are unlikely to perform well from these levels.
So I'm back to Preferreds as this news solidifies my theory that Commons are about to be taken to the woodshed.
I'm out of Commons, this doesn't look good. The news suggests Trump, Mnuchin, Otting, & Calabria will be working with Congress. They're going to cut up the GSE's like there's no tomorrow. Common EPS will be absolutely obliterated.
I'm now back to 100% Preferreds and hoping for 75% of Par. Commons will need to fend for themselves. If we are to take this news seriously, then I don't see Commons hitting more than $5 even if they somehow survive this Recapitalization.
Corker knew this was going to happen, hence his quote below:
It's disgusting when Preferreds use facts and logic to try to belittle us Common shareholders on our own board.
We all know the facts don't matter when the government is going to do the right thing. We don't live in a Banana Republic after all.
I'm considering filing a lawsuit to prevent this kind of nonsense.
#PreferredFactsAreLies
Agreed! Way too many Preferred Holders posting here. I think they're trying to buy up all the cheapies before us Longs get our next paycheck.
It's not gonna happen, worthless junk Preferreds. Commons own this board and the GSE's. We have voting rights! Preferreds don't. We call the shots!
#ShotCallers
Once this information comes to light, it's over. $50 FNMA will seem cheap by this time next month. Load the friggin' cheapies guys, We Won!
#AllAboard
These are some great calculations! $500 seems low with RICO, though. Since there will be no Warrants or SPS/JPS Conversions, the share count will remain low.
I think we are looking at $625+ with RICO damages (using a 10 PE).
#LoadTheCheapies!
I get $105 at a PE of 10. What formula are you using? Earnings divided by price or price divided by earnings? I always mix those two up.
Anyway, let's just say $100 is going to seem cheap in the next few months. It's coming!!
#Weeeeeeeeeeeeeee
Seems low. I'm looking for $10+ this week. Why not!? We're so close I can taste it. Modified AJP is all but guaranteed now. Ackman hinted at this earlier with his comments on the Average Ackman Plan.
I think he was trying to tell us we were on to something!
Commons get all the money if it's RICO! $FNMA is easily worth $50 if they pursue RICO charges.
Let's start a lawsuit to make sure this happens!
I think this is it! Freedom at last. Maria is going to make the announcement to the world tomorrow. Commons easily see $5 tomorrow.
#Yuge
Agreed. Those stupid Preferreds ain't Converting to Commons! They can just buy Commons now. They shouldn't have the ability to Convert.
I will personally file a lawsuit if those dumb Preferred holders even try to Convert their worthless junk shares to Commons.
#NoWayJose!
The Average Ackman Plan is now gaining traction based on Twitter's reaction. Bill really did a swell job of laying everything out for the Administration. It's a shame he lowered his price target significantly (now $18-22 per share), but that's still a whole lot of winning for $FNMA from these prices.
I'm really happy Wild Bill didn't forget about us Average Joe's. We will all be rewarded for keeping the faith.
#LongCommons=Winning!
$10 by Friday is within the realm of possibility. Once Otting announces a Modified Average Joe Plan, we'll be well on our way to $1,000 per share. But wait, there's more! $1,000/share doesn't even include Treble Damages, which would tack on another $150/share.
But wait, there's even more! Once the Treasury divulges the contents of the super secret NWS escrow account, the GSEs won't need to do any capital raises (ie: no dilution), which means the original $1,000/share can be thrown out the window.
And did I mention Buffet is also going to go long Commons? That will probably add another $250/share. This keeps getting better by the minute!!
We should just assume $2,000/share is the most likely outcome. Hence, my Reverse Rotation from Preferreds to Commons.
#CommonsToTheMoon!
It's coming amigo! Shorts better cover. Life is good
#CommonsRule
#PreferredsDrool
I reverse all my previous bearishness on $FNMA. I just received a great piece of information which now leads me to believe we will see a Modified Average Joe Plan to maximize the Treasury's Warrants.
The first step is to end the NWS. $FNMA could easily see $20 upon announcement of Recap and Release.
#Long&Strong$FNMA
The good thing is, we'll know very soon how bad things for Commons will be. Possibly this week.
The only "return" anyone can see for Commons at this point is in their imagination, as there aren't any concrete numbers investors can work with yet.
The only practical method anyone can use to calculate any possible returns is to dilute existing shareholders by 79.9% (Warrants) and then dilute by another ~$125B in new capital raises via Common offerings.
Other possibilities include both Jr. Preferred and Sr. Preferred conversion to Commons, further diluting potential EPS.
Let us know what number you come up with and what P/E it's based on.
There is no guaranty yet, not for Commons. Preferreds are guaranteed at this point since we know Recap is coming and Preferreds can't get diluted into oblivion, whereas Commons certainly still can be
Reality is harder to accept than $1,000/share dreams. I know, it's a tough pill to swallow, but swallow it the Average Joe's must!
The Good Ol' Boys Club has already decided Common shareholders' fate. Ink is now dry, details to emerge in next 2 weeks max.
GLTA, Commons are going to need it!
That is just a sell tactic from Moelis. They did that to make it seem better and more profitable for the Gov when in reality, Commons likely only see $4-6/share in the end.
Watch and learn!
Not many can afford Wynn with $5 $FNMA. I'd start looking off the strip. I heard the El Cortez has rooms for ~$40/night. That should be within the Average Joe's Budget with $FNMA likely never seeing higher than $6.
#PreferredLifeIsGood
I spoke with Steven, Joseph, Mark, and Donald. The ink is almost dry and the GSE shareholders' fate is now sealed. The Big Reveal is coming!
Let's just say: Happy Valentine's Day from the Good Ol' Boys Club
#BOOM
Quite an impressive Dragon Fly Doji. The Gravestone symbol is likely foreshadowing the Common shareholders' future.
Not many Longs left holding at this point besides a few retail investors that were suckered into holding under the pretense of getting $20+.
Seems the MMs are allowing this to run a bit into the close so the Shorts can accrue large positions up here before driving the stake into this devil's heart and pushing prices back to the low-$2s next week.
In all honesty, who really wants to be invested in the lowest level of the capital structure when a Recapitalization is staring investors in the face? Only crazy people.
#PreferredLifeIsGood
Excellent summary. Scenario #3 makes the most sense. What right-minded investor bringing that kind of money to the table is going to pay $5+ when they can just buy it on the open market for less?
The Lemmings are starting to get in over their heads now that this investment is going to come down to an actual recapitalization where the numbers matter.
No more pie-in-the-sky claims of "we'll recap at X price because that feels like a good number and makes me rich." That doesn't work any longer now that the big boys are coming to the table.
The Average Joe's will need to put on their big-boy pants if they want a seat at the table. It's time to get down to brass tacks.
Not sure. This is massive volume and Reversal. Does not bode well unless $FNMA sees a strong turn-around and closes above $3. Otherwise, I would expect low $2s next week.
Remember, the investors that will be injecting ~$100B in capital are going to want a sweetheart deal so they can profit too. They should get pricing of new Commons around 33-50% less than market value.
After that, Commons can go to infinity and beyond. But that's not going to happen until the new money is brought to the table and the new shares are issued.
#BuckleUp
$1 reflected uncertainty. Now there's a small dose of clarity that the GSEs will likely survive and be Recapped. Hence the 200% bump the stocks have seen this year.
There's still maybe 100% left for the Average Joe's. No one really knows though, $FNMA could currently be over-priced depending on how they go about raising the ~$150B in capital.
I think investors and traders are starting to realize there's very limited upside left, so they're selling and/or Rotating into Preferreds now.
Sell the Pops because $FNMA always drops. Wait and see.
~100% returns left for Commons, ~200% for Preferreds. The Lemmings will figure this out soon enough.
Looking forward to the Recap details and the "This isn't fair to Common shareholders, I'm filing a lawsuit" comments once Otting releases the Details.
#BuckleUp
$5-7 is a very realistic expectation for Commons. Double-digits is a stretch, and anything over $20 is a ridiculous stretch of the imagination (borderline looney bin material).
If I were an Average Joe (I most certainly am not, but may become one due to a force Conversion to Commons), I would expect $3-5 and anything more would be icing on the cake.
Reality is, those that touted 500% gains were right. Unfortunately, those gains started at $1 and will peak at $6.
In the end, the Average Joe's will all be saying: "Preferreds really were the better buy, I should've listened to that Commons_Cancelled guy."
The Good Ol' Boys Club appreciates your contributions. Thanks for playing.
Now you're talking! Why not go straight to the AJP price of $1,000 per share and then they only need to sell 200 million shares!
But wait, there's more! How about $10,000 per share and then they only need to sell 20 million shares.
The earlier AJP v2 leaks discussed $10,000 per share, so that's a good starting place.
How do they get $150-200B is the question? Brace yourselves, it's coming!!
re-IPO at $1, $1.50, $2? It has to be less than wherever Commons are currently trading on the day of announcement.
#It'sComing!
LMAO! Yes, Ackman is financing Berko, Perry, and all of the other Preferred cases too.
It's scary that some folks here have massive Common positions and don't have a grasp on the basics.
#YIKES!