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Trading Options: actually, the reason that I mention "trading option" is because you do trade options and would be nice that you translate equity trades to option trades... that's all. If and when you have the time to explain since your board is about "Options" so I thought it would be good for you to focus on options so others would learn and discuss if they want to?
For example, how QQQQ option did with option price activity reading relative to QQQQ equity? That would be very interesting...
Have a nice day
Posted by: __1Best__
In reply to: wonderbuy who wrote msg# 2584 Date:12/9/2006 12:43:19 PM
Post #of 2587
re 1best: WB, I would like to point out that in iHub, we have 1best who is an impostor of my ID, so, could you please specify the alias as __1Best__ if you do. I know that I am being somewhat overly detailed, but I think that it is better to point that out.
I would appreciate it if you could cover the basics of trading options since you do have good experience with trading options; and I prefer you to go very slow. I would think that there are others who are also interested in learning to trade options.
re 1best: WB, I would like to point out that in iHub, we have 1best who is an impostor of my ID, so, could you please specify the alias as __1Best__ if you do. I know that I am being somewhat overly detailed, but I think that it is better to point that out.
I would appreciate it if you could cover the basics of trading options since you do have good experience with trading options; and I prefer you to go very slow. I would think that there are others who are also interested in learning to trade options.
VIX/VXN
VXN broke out of the recent down TL while VIX had done so 1-2 weeks ago.
Have a great day
Good morning, WB, excellent point, true about the combination of the Fed announcement and Quadruple Witching Option week could provide a wild swing week... of course.
I think that market can be simply stated as shown below.
We could have some volatility.
While stopping the recent trend which is over extended
and which I see many are trying to hype up the market.
"""Wonder in general do you prefer to trade index or individual stocks?"""
I do focus on:
1) General market direction,
2) Big cap direction, e.g. MSFT, GOOG, INTC, etc.
3) Major ETF, e.g. QQQQ, SMH, SPY, etc.
and, other when time permits since we don't have enough time. For ETF, QQQQ, SMH, SPY, DIA, IWM, etc.
If you could post very basics of trading options like speaking to grade 7, when you have time, in series, for those who are not trading options, it would be good. Like dummy for trading options. Maybe, once a week? That is, ONLY if you have the time.
Have a nice day
Agree, ZLR, zero line reject, is something to watch on the indicator. I don't use individual indicator for my market analysis, but combination of several other factors.
Of course, ZLR on indicators is something to watch.
Do check on economic calendar...so, you can post it every morning if you want. Good idea to do so if you are upto it.
Let's see whether we will have volatility during Quadruple Witching week.
Sorry if I don't reply all your questions.
WB, well.... you need to point out if you notice as I do. Don't have enough time to research everything, but I DO FOCUS on major market for market comments. sorry
Sector iShare Update: As market consolidated during this week, Sector iShares also consolidated during the week.
XLB, material sector continued to trend up, making a new high.
XLE, energy, consolidated in the tight range which will break out from the range. Looking for a confirmation.
XLF, financial, also tested the previous high with negative divergence.
XLI, Industrials, shows slowing momentum as it is making lower high with negative divergence.
XLK, Technology, is forming a small diamond with slowing momentum.
XLP, Consumer Staple, traded a bit higher during this week. However, it is remaining in the trading range during the last three months as investors are looking for stocks to park their money for safe investment.
XLU, Utility, traded higher during this week but showing negative divergence. Utility is also safe investment stocks when economy is slowing. It has a huge run up, 20%.
XLU, Health care, is remaining in a tight range during the last three months, making a lower high.
XLY, Consumer Discretionary, is testing the previous high with negative divergence.
Conclusion, while momentum chasers try to hype up the market, more risk to downside considering the recent run of 20%.
Do not think that chasing this market at this juncture is a good idea.
Generally speaking, market will trend less than 20% of the time; hence, buying or selling markets in the late trend has more risks to trend-reversal. I believe that we are in the late trend and in trend-reversal stage.
Good trades
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=15238838
QCOM bounced today after a sharp sell off. Remember a momentum stock does NOT turn around so quickly. This stock was hyping up during the last three days until it was selling up at major resistance when market was selling off yesterday.
ORCL is bouncing a little from the last two days sell off; however, the gap is not filled and weekly momentum is still weakening.
QQQQ & Market update: WB, have you noticed DOW has broken Rising Wedge and is back-testing?
QQQQ also broke Rising Wedge as well as NASDAQ.
We have too many market pumpers who do not care about anything except "Christmas bonus" which they are going to get.
I believe that markets have rallied and are getting "BUBBLED UP".
Also, we have serious negative divergences on daily charts.
~~~~~
As anticipated QQQQ bounced off from 43.50 and $USD gained strength as market is showing confidence in T.S. Paulson negotiating Trade-currency issues with China during next week and market had a good Nov payroll number, 132000 vs 100000. A/D finished with even ratio, NYSE/Nasdaq of 0.95/1.07, respectively, with relatively light volume.
QQQQ: Wonderbuy, did you have a good day? I wasn't sure about your option play, but I knew that market would bounce today since the 60m intra day was setting up for it.
I mention a bounce at QQQQ 43.50 area as a support and market has bounced up at there. Now, it is still in the range, so we will see what market will do during next week which is Quadruple Witch, right?
QQQQ is backtesting the TL break; however, we still need a confirmation of any sign of pull back.
Have a nice weekend
QCOM - AAPL Reactionary bounce today. After the sharp sell-off yesterday, those are bouncing from the sell-off which is expected.
Remember the analysts up-grading AAPL which has the support.
Market is trading up in light volume this morning.
Yes, it is a beautiful shooting star tucked under 200 ma as markets sold off.
Good luck
AAPL just helped whack the market today for Long waited pull back ... Starving Bears. It was trading down in the morning. Having said that market was setting up to sell off today to prepare for the job number.
I hope that OPTION buys to take the market down during next week to get a small bounce into the follow week before the Christmas week.
The today market actions affected indicators to set to signal sell.
Be careful and don't be whipsawed.
Remember that future guys are looking for SPX new high during next week unless OPTION guys and ALL GALS stop them.
We need to write a letter to Big Uncle Ben to stop pumping money into market during next week.
rom: QQQQtrend Replying To : rainbow123 (post 96876) Dec 7 2006 10:29PM
Title: rainbow123 Job Report & Option Expiration Week
The key is how the Fed wants us to see the job report which will affect the market. After all, we can't fight, Big Uncle BEN, THE BIG FED CHAIR, right? If he continues to pour in money to market, then market will go up. But, I think that we all know what is going on so it is better to fix the problem instead of giving us more sugar pills like M2 or M3.
Because of Iraq situation, the FED might keep on giving us sugar pills, but we know the truth. I read that China might pull the plug to support our dollar, of course, most of us knows about it. The fact is that we support China to take over us by having more debt while we keep on buying their products and shipping over our job, etc. You know, not sure whether you read, my song and dance during Jan - Mar 2006 mega bearish case. The same problem is not really solved during Jun-Nov rally; but we avoided more crisis while we were facing geopolitical issues. You might not believe this, but I saw a sign to be bullish, i.e. to support the bottom, in Jun, like seeing a rainbow as a sign.
For ETFs, the signals are just similar as QQQQ even though it does not make the exact top/bottom sometimes, for example, QQQQ made the ST top in Jan06 while SPY in May 06; however, the major market signals are relatively similar. Also, it depends on your preference. QQQQ is a good ST trading while some might think that it does not provide enough volatility. Actually IWM rallied 120% since Oct 2002 bottom as you see at the top of left corner performance %%%% on the chart. Yes, I think that we need to stop spending and stop supporting other countries buy consuming too much with heavy load of debt.
Bears need the mercy of God, I mean, mercy of the Big Uncle Ben to stop pumping the money into market to bubble up... you know about the Job number tomorrow.
Negative Divergences: Excellent call on AAPL, WB, did you hear the news and react?
Many stocks are bubbled up which need to be burst. RIMM and AAPL are the examples as you know, "Falling off Cliff" scenario. Just can't believe that the major stocks holding NASDAQ are iPod and GOOG.
We have negative divergences as shown on the breadth charts, eg NASI, NAMO, 50/200ma.
We need to stop this bubble before it gets out-of-our-hand.
RB, thank you and I am sorry for the "ouch" and we all know how that feels.
Maybe the several sell-rating was "manipulation" to steal the shares? You know when a stock is added to major indices, it is almost guaranteed to go up since fund mgrs need to buy those, for example GOOG went up when it was added to SPX.
HOPEFULLY, we will have a continuation of ST pull back because future guys are projecting SPX making a new high after a short pull back, i.e. intra lower than today, then, make a new high. NOT GOOD.
Of course, unless OPTION GUYS are taking it down because they have the better sense.
Furthermore, ALL FUTURE AND OPTION GALS are cheering for a market pull back; so, we will see.
Good luck and Best Wishes
AAPL, ipod: WB, Market momentum was still in play yesterday as you see on the intra day chart, market was consolidating after a strong move. Also, like to fake the direction... you know, "Shake & Bake" actions.
Well, I think that you would have those since you like to hit & run.
So, it was the iPod fiasco.
""Adding insult to injury was a 3.0% sell-off in one of the sector's biggest names -- Apple Computer (AAPL 87.03 -2.80). CIBC World Markets said Apple's highly anticipated iPhone rollout may be delayed.""
Glad to hear that you made it up with "cliff dive". Certainly, some profit taking would be good for those bubbled-up stocks.
I know that Option guys can be quite volatility with temper.
With the Eco number tom, hopefully we will have ST top, even though future guys are forecasting a new SPX high.
We only have one more week during the next week for normal trading followed by Quadruple Option Expiration Week, then, we will have slow holiday tradings for the following two weeks.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
From: QQQQtrend Replying To : QQQQtrend (post 96845) Dec 7 2006 11:14AM
Title: QQQQ RST & SPX TL
As anticipated, QQQQ & SPX are staying in the range as shown on the 60m charts.
Now, it is boncing off from Qs S2 after initial open-run-sell-off. Qs intra R 44.15 for bounce R and S 43.45 with the RST formation lower TL.
Qs has daily diamond shape supported by 20dma at the moment.
QQQQ data error: We have data error, as of now, the intra high is 44.48, not 44.95
Yes, but I don't use SC for trading, but only use it for market analysis such as TL and formations. It has good features as well.
The link that you posted is a good one, but I need to have specific macro as needed, but right now, need to catch up with my work which is behind.
Nothing to discuss on public board since I am nooooo programmer, if you know what I mean.
To do my market analysis and trading.
As anticipated, market is trading in the range as shown on the 60m charts.
Posted by: __1Best__
In reply to: wonderbuy who wrote msg# 2532 Date:12/6/2006 11:29:22 PM
Post #of 2544
QQQQ Update: QQQQ/SPX staying in a tight range again under the RST 60m resistance and SPX daily resistance.
I still think that market is waiting for Friday eco number.
Thank you, dfresh, it is refreshing to see you.
Enjoy the day
Good morning, WB, yes, of course, that's how I do it.
Are you good at computer programming? Even though I do know some basic programming, I need to ask advanced Macro, e.g. excel such as I do ask my nephew who has programming background.
Premarket is positive and oversea rallied, dollar is negative.
Have a good day
QQQQ Update: QQQQ/SPX staying in a tight range again under the RST 60m resistance and SPX daily resistance.
I still think that market is waiting for Friday eco number.
Yes, agree, Do you do SMH update everyday since it is your favorite stock which you listed?
Also, is there anyway copy the chart link when do "Reply" instead of I have to find the link again?
It seems that the posting function is different from CS while posting link is much easier; other function is harder.
For example, after I post SMH on this post, when I update, how can I copy the link from this post to next post?
SMH is still in the range.
$SOX Yes, good eye.. fill it up for me. *wink*
The small intra chart has a link if anyone to care to see, it is dow black, nas yellow, spx red; so, I wouldn't worry about it. Not sure how long I will keep it, but thought it is a small one which is a cute one.
$HGX, WB, housing stocks are at resistance, but, I don't think that I mentioned "short"?
But would be better to look for a pull back since it would be going into run-up after most of run is already done unless timeframe is short.
What's notable is that those are at the resistances; hence, waiting for a confirmation.
The best set up is to catch oversold, then, breaking above down TL, but need to have a good TA skill unless, if messing up, it turns out to be catching a falling knife, vice versa stepping in front of a running train.
Posted by: __1Best__
In reply to: wonderbuy who wrote msg# 2518 Date:12/6/2006 9:04:32 PM
Post #of 2526
WB, Housing stocks: $HGX rallied since Aug 8, the Fed pause as I alerted during Jul 06 bottom. Now, major housing market stocks rallied to resistances, e.g. major ma or TL, after rallying today based on DHI news. $HGX daily broken above "Price Channel" TL resistance, and, while it still has upper target to the Jul05 down TL resistance as shown on the weekly chart, need to be careful with purchasing housing stocks at this time since many, e.g. BZN, CHB, DHI, HOV, KBH, PHM, SPF and TOL, closed at resistances.
WB, Housing stocks: $HGX rallied since Aug 8, the Fed pause as I alerted during Jul 06 bottom. Now, major housing market stocks rallied to resistances, e.g. major ma or TL, after rallying today based on DHI news. $HGX daily broken above "Price Channel" TL resistance, and, while it still has upper target to the Jul05 down TL resistance as shown on the weekly chart, need to be careful with purchasing housing stocks at this time since many, e.g. BZN, CHB, DHI, HOV, KBH, PHM, SPF and TOL, closed at resistances.
http://www.trend-signals.com/index.htm
PHM, WB, it is breaking out; however, review housing stocks, they are, mostly, closed at resistances, e.g. major ma or TL.
Hence, I think that it would be better to observe carefully by buying at a decent pull back or after breakout. $HGX was rallying since Aug 8.
ORCL: Seasonality is playing a strong role, of course, as Trading Statistics states Dec is an up-month and Jan sell-off for profit taking similar as Jan 05 after Aug 04 run-up. Will see, but I still think that more risk to downside after consolidation.
Btw, ORCL is getting hammered today after a downgrade.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=15249298
Best to you
Yes, seasonlity is playing a strong role, but I think that market is waiting for the Friday Job number and until then it could stay in N.R.
Now, it is selling after 5m Sym triangle pop to upside.
I don't know your strading style and time frame.
The formation is still in play, I think, i.e. RST 60m and Daily... But again, depending on timeframe.
After the big intra swing that we have, OR any RELATIVELY big waves, market will consolidate. Right now, we are, I think.
Thought you would cover at the low today. I still think that market is waiting for Friday Eco # which seems the Fed "Feel Good Numbers" could play.
Best to you
It says, "ADM"...?
Hope that AMD can Fly to upside like KLAC because it looks like it has a broken wing.
Good nite
SMH: Yes True, but I was preaching Aug 2004 case from Jun-Jul 2006 crying bull alone... but you saw what I saw while Paul didn't.
I have noticed that you posted a couple of my charts with your modification, and some were calling you as I am. That's when I noticed you.
After that You came to CS posted a question on 4-8 yr cycle.
btw... SMH is forming Sym Triangle.
I really wish AMD can fly like KLAC, NVLS... they are flying.
WB, do you think that someone is spying your board and my website? They saw what we were talking about?
Just co-incidental, sure.
Yes, it is powerful formation because it is coiling to be exploided.. you know what I mean.
QCOM has 40 resistance, but if the coil formation works out, it will be going to 46; however, the formation DO CHANGE from one to another in any time frame... *important*. e.g. Sym Triangle to Channel etc.
But as we can see, Weekly formation, i.e. DT BO adds one more factor.
2006 - 2004: WB, I commented that the best case scenario for 2006 would be forming the 2004 Aug rally when I called Jun-Jul 06 bottom.
Now QQQQ has exact same rally points from Aug04 to Dec04 top, i.e. the rally point is the same.
If market is rational, it would do some retracement at this stage of economy. I just don't see a fresh rally, economic cycle as if we are in a brand new up - cycle which is a soft landing scenario. Even so, we need a decent retracement before it continues to march on.
What is your opinion?
Best to you~
QCOM: Have you seen QCOM rally during the last two days? Now, it is breaking out from Sym Triangle...
Best Wishes... if traded it.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=15249298
AEOS: RB, now we see the reason for the rally even after sell recom, including Cramer sell.
We have so much liquidity, i.e. cash, unless something major unexpected event happens, I don't think that we have LT Top yet. I think that it is a good idea to do some retracement. But the seasonality is keeping the market falling at the moment.
Regardless, preach your bearish points, since I do think that it is better for us for market to pull back at this juncture; but please do keep in mind that there are many bulls.
Maybe we should call "hot line" to uncle Ben to show some mercy to bears!
Letter to Uncle Ben, Please Market Pull back for Starving Bears?
RB, AEOS is the low volume stock with a huge mega uptrend momentum which has not proven to be ended. As we can see that the momentum of this stock is just monsterous since it was $10 in 2004, but now 48 without evidence of reversal top formation.
It was trading in a range bound channel for 2-3 months after the strong run during Aug-Oct. As said before, any big fund managers can manipulate stocks like this to up or down side; hence, it would be better to avoid stocks like this for intra trading and for ST trading without high probability outcome with defined trading strategy.
You know about “Cramer stock picks” and “Fast money” hypes on CNBC? They could influence big hedge fund managers’ buy/sell; hence, the momentum could be very strong as in AEOS.
Any trading strategies will work on any stocks but lower volume stocks will have more risk since those are usually high beta stocks.
Right now, AEOS is at upper TL in the 2-3 month range bound in consolidation; so, need a confirmation for directional move outside of the range. Of course, if you have big fund connection, you could make the chart formation so all who are watching the price formation/charts trade based on the chart formation that you just manipulated. (pun intended)
Of course, natural reading of TA on the stock is to pull back since it is OB, negative divergence, End of Holiday sale pricing in (ahead of 6 month pricing in), etc; but that could be used to push up the stock higher. Like you, of course, it would be better to take profit for those who heavily loaded up. Any catalyst to downside will have the same effect to fast momentum as you know that higher beta works both ways.
Again, it would not be a good idea to mention stocks which could be manipulated by a few big fund managers unless you could move the stock.
What do you think?
Money printing machine attack on shorts... broken to upside on 5m.
RB, OK, after close on AEOS since you are not intraday trading.
Q is forming Sym Triangle on 5m. My bias on 60 is still to downside.
I use customized indicators with price formation and various other TA; however, I find "Trading discipline" - "Money Management" is more important than trading strategies; but of course, that would be a part of complete trading strategies.