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China BULL and U.S. BUST is for sure since not only IT services, but also "many customer service", "medical expertise", "professional service", and many other which anything that is mobile are shipped to overseas.
This is boosting corporate profit, but not our economy for majority.
This trend has much to do the policy makers' choice.
OIL is pulling back -1.44, but of course it is still higher comparing what it was in 20s.
Yes, I noted GS downgrade on Technology, but this morning INTC is upgraded following Cramer's comment which a poster noted on the CS nas board.
Also the same thing has happened with AMD following Cramer's comment, since then, AMD is horribly sold off. This is a pure manipulation, of course, we know, but we need to question the usefulness of SEC.
Yes, I noted rab's reply that it was a pure coincidence that his note was on the day when I posted 15 for the first time.
As noted on CS, we saw "CHINA BULL" and "US BUST" this moring on CNBC and it seems that many are confused.
http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/bbs?post_id=7836651
http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/bbs?post_id=7836602
Of course, this is my view, but when we purchase China products while job going to overseas, what do we expect? BUST while China getting boom. The only solution will be that we need to know the facts, since we can't sustain our economy by purchasing foreign goods (over 70% of our consumption) at the same time shipping our jobs.
Will see.
Good grades
Yes, sorry, it was a pure coincidence; but, what I was noting was a fact. I should have checked your number of posts yesterday. Also, yesterday was my first day that I posted that many on this board.
Have a nice day
GM, WB, please note my post to rab. Thanks
Also, I am very suspicious of INTC upgrade this morning and AMD downgrade. The UP/DOWN grades are "Mega Manipulation" among those who know and who are in alliance of WS. Of course, this is my suspicion which is speculation so need to be taken what it's worth.
Posted by: __1Best__
In reply to: rab120 who wrote msg# 2989 Date:1/4/2007 9:36:11 AM
Post #of 2990
GM, rab, I am suspicious of those who are checking my posts as you do to count my posts like those who harassed me on CS which is the same behavior.
Yes, my intention was to do so to catch up with the post which I didn't do.
I would like you NOT to make such comments again if you want to be considerate of my stance.
GM, rab, I am suspicious of those who are checking my posts as you do to count my posts like those who harassed me on CS which is the same behavior.
Yes, my intention was to do so to catch up with the post which I didn't do.
I would like you NOT to make such comments again if you want to be considerate of my stance.
You could say that, even though it is the other way around in a way.
Maybe it is Chinese/Japanese buying our dollar as New Year gift.
The real story could be our market didn't rally as much as europeans'; hence, we are comparatively less inflated.
The Fed comment on inflation. More equity market rallies, USD will be likely trading down due to inflation in a ST view.
However as shown on the IYC chart, we were better off during 1999-2000 when we had higher equity, higher USD, and lower OIL price. Now, we have higher equity, lower USD, and higher OIL.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
TOL is trading at S/R, remaining in trading range.
Will be watching out for breakout.
Good trades
Inverted yield curve ratio went up today and 10y traded down. I commented on 10y than it has bullish trading up on weekly, but closed at daily resistance.
$USD traded up to DTL as shown on the daily chart.
I wonder what made it to move up today?
SPX bounced off from lower TL/ma support today. As we noted before, CMF/money flow turned negative today.
SPX also bounced off from lower up TL support which you can see on 60m intraday chart as did on 11/28 low. The SPX bounce formation point is the same as it did during the last five months - sucessful 5-dip buying activities.
30m SPX shows negative D and 60m does not show positive D.
TRINQ was lower than I thought it would be.
Yes, agree on the normal trading day after two weeks holiday vacation which I commented during the last OE week.
In addition, had a clue what market will do since we were off while Euromarkets were sharply trading up.
Also, anticipation of the Fed min provided additional volatility.
Thanks for the additional ETFs even though I don't trade them. However it is good to know Index ETFs since the price pattern is better than individual stocks. I will add those to my list, OIL/GAS - Real Esate Shorts are good one even though we have XLE which could do both ways.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NASDAQ traded in a trading range for 2 months. It retrieved from upper resistance at 2455 and bounced off from a lower support at 2395, 12/1 low.
It needs to trade below 2435 +/- which is ma resistances (daily/60m).
As said before, with negative divergences, many stocks are trending down in reality.
ORCL is bouncing up at the trendline support.
But need to be careful since weekly is still OB as you can see on MACD and it is closed at daily resistance.
We have a good volume day today.
Which ETFs are you following? Do you trade any other ETFs other than those that we normally trade such as QQQQ, DIA, SPY, SMH, IWM, etc?
LONG - SHORT Major Market ETF & funds
QQQQ & SSO Long
DOW & MID Cap LONG
SP500 & Russell 200 Long
QQQQ & SP500 Short
DOW & Mid Cap Short
QQQQ & SP500 Short
DOW & Mid Cap Short
SP500 & Russell2000 Short
Yes, one analyst who downgraded the stock had the impact.
Cramer was negative on the stock even though I don't listen to him often enough, but notice it one day.
The analyst mustt be with Cramer and his alliances.
Hi Rab, I alerted and commented on OEX when it broke out in Sept 06, now it traded 178% of Oct05-May06.
At this juncture, I am cautious as I noted serious negative divergences, but we have seasonality.
Just follow technicals at the moment with my reality check comments.
WB, remember what you said about AMD?
Look at what is doing now... It is horrible.
Goldman downgraded Tech today, but of course, we can't take its word for it; so, be careful!
AAPL is nothing but "Manipulation House"... with analysts up/down grades and media attention.
WB, the stockcharts.com oil $WTIC is always "one day" delaying chart since it is as of EOD chart.
This link is another reference with oil futures.
http://www2.barchart.com/dfutpage.asp?sym=CL&code=BSTK
Certainly OIL can do "unexpected" price actions with news-driven volatility. As we have seen today that it is trading below the DTL support with gap.
WB, this is the Chinese zodiac link which I thought it was on the previous post link which I was referring to.
Have a great day
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pig_(zodiac)
Yes, I knew the year of pig starts in Feb as shown on the Chinese zodiac link. Are you Chinese?
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=15908744
http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/bbs?post_id=7834445
Oil pull back/intra crash -4%... today because Angola joins OPEC as of 1/1/07.
Yes, I knew the year of pig starts in Feb as shown on the Chinese zodiac link. Are you Chinese?
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=15908744
http://www.businessinafrica.net/news/southern_africa/556289.htm
The conference unanimously admitted the Republic of Angola as the twelfth full member of the organisation, with effect from the January 1 2007," an Opec spokesman said at the end of a ministerial meeting in Abuja, Nigeria.
Angola was one of three possible new members waiting to join the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which already produces about 40 percent of world oil supplies. The other two were Sudan and Ecuador.
"Only now we asked to be member but our wish to join Opec is since our independence" in 1975, said Angolan Oil Minister Desiderio da Gracia Verissimo e Costa as he made the application to join earlier on Thursday.
"We want to collaborate with Opec members to help to regulate a fair price for everybody, not only producers but consumers.
GM.. No, WB, I am not Chinese, but "666" is with us.
So, Pig vs God, 2007, we will see.
Maybe, doesn't market say about pigs... will get...
Giant Panda is good one.
China – Chinese dragon (historical), giant panda, tiger (unofficial) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_emblem
There is a conflict as quoted below... need to find if there is good dragon saying in Bible or Koran? I am not familiar with Koran.
In Christianity
The Latin word for a dragon, draco (genitive: draconis), actually means snake or serpent, emphasizing the European association of dragons with snakes. The Medieval Biblical interpretation of the Devil being associated with the serpent who tempted Adam and Eve, thus gave a snake-like dragon connotations of evil. Generally speaking, Biblical literature itself did not portray this association (save for the Book of Revelation, whose treatment of dragons is detailed below). The demonic opponents of God, Christ, or good Christians have commonly been portrayed as reptilian or chimeric.
In the Book of Job Chapter 41, there are references to a sea monster Leviathan, which has some dragon-like characteristics.
In Revelation 12:3, an enormous red beast with seven heads is described, whose tail sweeps one third of the stars from heaven down to earth (held to be symbolic of the fall of the angels, though not commonly held among biblical scholars). In most translations, the word "dragon" is used to describe the beast, since in the original Greek the word used is drakon (δράκον).
In iconography, some Catholic saints are depicted in the act of killing a dragon. This is one of the common aspects of Saint George in Egyptian Coptic iconography [1], on the coat of arms of Moscow, and in English and Catalan legend. In Italy, Saint Mercurialis, first bishop of the city of Forlì, is also depicted slaying a dragon.[2] Saint Julian of Le Mans, Saint Veran, Saint Crescentinus, and Saint Leonard of Noblac were also venerated as dragon-slayers.
However, some say that dragons were good, before they fell, as humans did. Also contributing to the good dragon argument in Christianity is the fact that, if they did exist, they were created as were any other creature, as seen in Dragons In Our Midst, a contemporary Christian book series by author Bryan Davis.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dragon
OIL: YW, Rab, Yes, it is an interesting subject which is all ties into the universe, cosmic numerology such as fibonacci numbers.
Oil is at support.
SPX iShare: Yes, we see negative divergences, but we need to be very careful because markets can be fooling so we need to be prudent.
~~~~~~~~
During the last two weeks, XLE energy traded down -3.9%, XLB material -1.58%, XLK technology -1.27% while other sector ishares remained in trading range.
In Dec06, XLF financial performed well +2.77%, while XLE lost -2.36%.
In 2006, XLB material 16.98%, XLV health care 6.68%, XLP consumer staples 13.91%, XLY consumer discretionary 17.99%, XLE energy 17.72%, XLF financial 17.98%, XLI industrial 12.61%, XLK technology 11.52%, and XLU utility 19.81%. Certainly Utility sector performed very well gaining almost 20%.
Same as major market and indexes, SPX sector iShares performed well during 2006; but, now, those are showing negative divergences on both daily and weekly charts showing slowing or negative divergences.
Hi Rab, "7" is associated with God. This is one example of "Biblical Numerology", but other theologians say, "7" is the year of God. When I find it again, I will let you know.
Happy New Year & Best Wishes
http://www.carm.org/questions/numbers.htm
Biblical Numerology
It seems quite obvious that the Bible uses numbers in patterns. Who can deny that 40 is significant. Jesus was in the desert for 40 days and the Israelites wandered in the desert for 40 years. Whether or not the analysis of these number patterns are accurate is up for debate. But I present to you this information condensed from the book, Number in Scripture by Bullinger.
One of the interesting features of Hebrew and Greek is that in both written languages there are no numeric characters. Where we have numbers and letters, they have only letters. So, in each language, the letters are also used as numbers. In a small way we do the same thing in English. For example is "O" a zero or a letter of in the alphabet. Is "l" a one or a small L? When they are used, the context tells us which is which and we have no problem understanding it. The same goes for Hebrew and Greek. They knew when they were writing numbers and when they were writing letters.
But the interesting thing is that when a word is written, it also has a numeric equivalent. For example, the word "Jesus" in Greek is "iasous." Since each letter has a numeric equivalent, we can add up each number and get a value. The value is the gammatria. Therefore, the gammatria of "Jesus" in Greek is 888 because i = 10 a = 8 s = 200 o = 70 u = 400 s = 200. There are many interesting 'games' that can be played with this feature of Greek and Hebrew and much of it is absurd. But, some of the numeric relationships are interesting.
Whether not the numbers really do have a significance is still debated in many circles. Nevertheless, I present the information for your examination.
1 THE NUMBER OF UNITY. Father. Deuteronomy 6:4 "Hear, O Israel: The LORD our God, the LORD is one. Ephesians 4:5 "one Lord, one faith, one baptism."
2 THE NUMBER OF DIVISION. The Son who has two natures: human and divine. There are 2 Testaments: the Old and New. Man is Male and Female. Rom. 9 speaks of two vessels: one for honorable use and the other for dishonorable use. Two types of people: Sheep and Goats. There are two ages, this age and the age to come: Matt. 12:32; 13:39,40,49; Mark 10:30.
3 THE NUMBER OF DIVINE PERFECTION. The Trinity consists of Father, Son, and Holy Spirit. There are three qualities of the universe: Time, Space, and Matter. To exist (except for God), all three are required. Each quality consists of three elements. Therefore, we live in a trinity of trinities.
- The three qualities of universe are each three:
Time is one yet three Space is one yet three Matter is one yet three
Past
Present
Future Height
Width
Depth Solid
Liquid
Gas
We live in a Trinity of Trinities: Romans 1:20 says, "For since the creation of the world His invisible attributes, His eternal power and divine nature have been clearly seen, being understood through what has been made..."
- If you are a trichotomist then man is made of three parts:
Body Soul Spirit
- Human abilities are three
Thought Word Deed
- The divine attributes are three fold:
God is:
Omniscient
Omnipresent
Omnipotent Love
Light
Spirit Holy
Righteous
Just
- Three bear witness (1 John 5:8):
Spirit Water Blood
- Christ is Three Shepherds
The Good Shepherd (John 10:14-15) - speaking of His death
The Great Shepherd (Heb. 13:20) - speaking of His resurrection
The Chief Shepherd (1 Pet. 5:4) - speaking of His glory
- The Three appearances of Christ:
Past:
Present:
Future:
Has appeared (Heb. 9:26) to put away sin
Is appearing (Heb. 9:24) in the presence of God
Will appear (Heb. 9:28) to those who await Him
- The Father spoke from Heaven three times:
- Matt. 3:17, "This is My beloved Son, in whom I am well pleased."
- Matt. 17:5, "This is My beloved Son, with whom I am well-pleased; listen to Him."
- John 12:28, "I have both glorified it [the Father's name], and will glorify it again."
- Both the Tabernacle and the Temple consisted of three parts:
The Court The Holy place The Sanctuary
Regarding the Tabernacle:
The Holy of Holies was a cube (10 cubits x 10 cubits x 10 cubits)
Regarding the Temple:
The Holy of Holies was a cube (20 cubits x 20 cubits x 20 cubits)
4 THE NUMBER OF CREATION - North, South, East, West; 4 Seasons. The 4th commandment is the first that refers to the earth. The 4th clause of the Lord's Prayer is the first that mentions the earth. The materials of the tabernacle were four and so were the coverings and the ornamentations.
5 THE NUMBER OF GRACE. Redemption. Israel came out of Egypt 5 in rank (Ex 13:18). David picked up 5 smooth stone to fight Goliath (1 Sam. 17:40). The Holy Anointing Oil was pure and composed of 5 parts (Ex. 30:23-25).
6 THE NUMBER OF MAN: Man was created on the 6th day. Man labors 6 days only. The Serpent was created on the 6th day. The 6th commandment is "Thou shalt not murder." Six words are used for man: Adam, ish, Enosh, gehver, anthropos, anar. Also, 6 x 6 = 36. 36 + 35 + 34 + 33 + 32 . . . 5 + 4 + 3 + 2 + 1 = 666. 666 is the number of the antichrist. This means that the name of the antichrist in Greek adds up to 666. This is a mockery of the Trinity.
7 THE NUMBER OF SPIRITUAL PERFECTION. Seven days in a week. Seven colors in the spectrum. Seven of the 10 commandments begin with the word "not." There are 7 seals, 7 trumpets, 7 parables in Matthew, and 7 promises to the churches. There are 7 "eternals" in Hebrews which are: A priest for ever (1:6); Eternal salvation (1:9); Eternal judgment (6:2); eternal redemption (9:12); eternal spirit (9:14); eternal inheritance (9:15); and everlasting covenant (13:20). Jesus said 7 things on the cross: 1) Luke 23:34 "Jesus said, "Father, forgive them, for they do not know what they are doing." And they divided up his clothes by casting lots; 2) Luke 23:43 Jesus answered him, "I tell you the truth, today you will be with me in paradise"; 3) Matthew 27:46 About the ninth hour Jesus cried out in a loud voice, "Eloi, Eloi, lama sabachthani?" -- which means, "My God, my God, why have you forsaken me?"; 4) John 19:26 "When Jesus saw his mother there, and the disciple whom he loved standing nearby, he said to his mother, "Dear woman, here is your son"; 5) John 19:28 "Later, knowing that all was now completed, and so that the Scripture would be fulfilled, Jesus said, "I am thirsty." 6) John 19:30 "When he had received the drink, Jesus said, "It is finished." With that, he bowed his head and gave up his spirit"; and 7) Luke 23:46 "Jesus called out with a loud voice, "Father, into your hands I commit my spirit." When he had said this, he breathed his last." "Hallelujah" occurs 28 times or 4 x 7. "Hosanna" occurs 7 times. "Milk" occurs 49 times or 7 x 7. "Abaddon" occurs 7 times. "After the order of Melchizedek" occurs 7 times.
8 THE NUMBER OF NEW BEGINNINGS. 8 people on Noah's Ark (2 Pet. 2:5); circumcision on 8th day (Gen. 17:12); God made 8 covenants with Abraham
9 THE NUMBER OF JUDGMENT. There are 9 greek words derived from the root word meaning judgment = dikay. The following words each occur 9 times in the Bible: abussos (bottomless pit); asebee (ungodly); aselgeia (lasciviousness); and astrapee (lightning). The gifts of the spirit are 9 in number (1 Cor. 12:8-10): the word of wisdom, the word of knowledge, faith, healing, miracles, prophecy, discerning of spirits, tongues, and interpretation of tongues.
10 THE NUMBER OF DIVINE PERFECTION. There are 10 commandments (Ex. 20); 1/10 of your income is a tithe; the were 10 plagues on Egypt (Ex. 9:14ff); 10 x 10 silver sockets formed the foundation of the Tabernacle (Ex 38:27); There are 10 "I AM's spoken by Jesus in John: 1) I am the Bread of Life (6:35); 2) I am the Bread of Life which came down from heaven (6:41); 3) I am the Living Bread (6:51); 4) I am the Light of the world (8:12); 5) I am One that bears witness of Myself (8:18); 6) I am the Door of the sheep (10:7,9); 7) I am the Good Shepherd (10:14); 8) I am the Resurrection and the Life (14:6); 9) I am the Way, the Truth, and the Life (11:25); and 10) I am the True Vine (15:1,5).
12 THE NUMBER OF GOVERNMENTAL PERFECTION. There were 12 tribes of Israel; 12 Apostles, 12 foundations in the heavenly Jerusalem; 12 gates; 12 pearls; 12 angels. The measurements of New Jerusalem are 12,000 furlongs or stadia, while the wall will be 144 (12 x 12) cubits (Rev. 21:16-17).
40 THE NUMBER OF PROBATION OR TRIAL. The Israelites wandered for 40 years (Deut. 8:2-5). Moses was on the mount for 40 days (Exodus 24:18); 40 days of Jonah and Nineveh (Jonah 3:4). Jesus was tempted for 40 days (Matt. 4:2).
153 In John 21:11, after the resurrection the disciples caught 153 fish. The word fish in Greek is 'ixthus' which has a numerical equivalent of 1224, or 8 x 153. Remember, which is Jesus Christ is 888. 153 people received a blessing from Jesus in the four gospel (not counting the 5000 and examples like that).
WB, yes, you are right about your understanding of the markets, the TL resistances and CMF money flow negativities.
However, "666" is projecting to bubble up the equity market regardless of the bearish signs which we can see through market internals and also through fundamentals, such as high trade/budget deficits, USD, oil, new economy trend, etc.
I say that it is "666" because it is greed which is taking a bigger role than God.
666 as the mark of commerce
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Number_of_the_Beast
6-6-6 is Waw-Waw-Waw ("WWW") in Hebrew
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/666_%28number%29
Since we just ended 2006, I was thinking of "666" because we were anticipating something to happen. You recall that some said we are going to have "End - apocalypse" during the middle east war, but it is really about "666" as materialism which was manifested during that time when our financial market remained calm under complete control of the Feds. I am not saying that the Fed is "666", but there is a fine line which the Fed could cross over when the Fed acting greater than God. After all, "666" is about "commericalism". Also as stated above. I was asking God to give me the wisdom on "666" since we just finished 2006 which we were warned the year.
So, what I have learned is that the "666" is among us so we need to be very careful. Well, if you believe in those things.
2007 is the Year of God.
This maybe sound funny to you; but, those who believe in these things can understand what I am talking about. I am sorry if this does not make sense to you.
Yes, the double Trend Lines which you also noted as well as SPX 1430 +/- is the breakout target of May06 high; so, as I noted, we are at a critical juncture.
WB, HAPPY NEW YEAR & Best Wishes for 2007
SPX trading at critical juncture for VST and ST, as commented before that it traded to "Breakout Target" to SPX 1430+/- from SPX 1325, the breakout point which is the May06 high.
Also, as shown on the LT chart, SPX 1435 +/- is a resistance where NOV2000 intra monthly Peak was. “Intra” referring to “not closing price” or “not daily price actions” depending in the context it is used. For example, “Intra Monthly Peak” means that the SPX 1438.46 in Nov2000 was the Nov2000 monthly High which is not “Closing monthly price”.
We also have Breadth negative divergences which I noted since the end of Nov, as shown below, SPX above 50 DMA was trending down while SPX price actions making new highs, meaning that many stocks are trending down while a few stocks were trending up to support SPX index making new highs. Also as shown on the NYAD chart, it is showing negative divergence.
SPX daily shows Symmetrical triangle supported by 20dma as well as on the 60m chart. As commented earlier, we had “One Month Trading Range” which forced “Daily Oscillators” showing oversold condition while “Daily Price Actions” were unchanged. This Technically deceitful condition will induce many traders to buy based on “Oscillator Oversold Condition”; however, trading on short term market fluctuation is of course traders’ venture, but not for those who are looking for “value” in the market with great reward/risk.
Also, it is easy to take “bullish” bias based on the oscillator action and on the general bullish market sentiment; however, regardless price action whether trading up or down, it is prudent to focus on the reality of fundamentals which is bearish at this point. However, it is better to deal with technical signals as traders since the tape actions are important for trading. Hence, will ONLY comment on price actions, but will remain Bearish for fundamental reasons.
Best Wishes, WB, for 2007
That's what I noted that many investors would be buying stocks thinking that those will go up as general markets, but many stocks are going down as internals show.
Enjoy the long weekend and Happy New Year
Rank Team Record Votes Previous
1 Ohio State (65) 12-0 1,625 1
2 Florida 12-1 1,529 4
3 Michigan 11-1 1,526 3
4 LSU 10-2 1,365 5
5 Louisville 11-1 1,333 6
CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL Orlando, Fla.Dec. 29, 8 p.m. (ESPN) Maryland (8-4) vs. Purdue (8-5) MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL Charlotte, N.C.Dec. 30, 1 p.m. (ESPN) Navy (9-3) vs. Boston College (9-3) ALAMO BOWL San AntonioDec. 30, 4:30 p.m. (ESPN) Iowa (6-6) vs. Texas (9-3) CHICK-FIL-A BOWL AtlantaDec. 30, 8 p.m. (ESPN) Virginia Tech (10-2) vs. Georgia (8-4) MPC COMPUTERS BOWL Boise, IdahoDec. 31, 7:30 p.m. (ESPN) Nevada (8-4) vs. Miami (6-6) OUTBACK BOWL Tampa, Fla.Jan. 1, 11 a.m. (ESPN) Penn State (8-4) vs. Tennessee (9-3) COTTON BOWL DallasJan. 1, 11:30 a.m. (Fox) Auburn (10-2) vs. Nebraska (9-4) CAPITAL ONE BOWL Orlando, Fla.Jan. 1, 1 p.m. (ABC) Wisconsin (11-1) vs. Arkansas (10-3) GATOR BOWL Jacksonville, Fla.Jan. 1, 1 p.m. (CBS) Georgia Tech (9-4) vs. West Virginia (10-2) ROSE BOWL Pasadena, Calif.Jan. 1, 5 p.m. (ABC) USC (10-2) vs. Michigan (11-1) FIESTA BOWL Glendale, Ariz.Jan. 1, 8:30 p.m. (Fox) Boise State (12-0) vs. Oklahoma (11-2) ORANGE BOWL MiamiJan. 2, 8 p.m. (Fox) Wake Forest (11-2) vs. Louisville (11-1) SUGAR BOWL New OrleansJan. 3, 8 p.m. (Fox) LSU (10-2) vs. Notre Dame (10-2) INTERNATIONAL BOWL TorontoJan. 6, Noon (ESPN2) Cincinnati (7-5) vs. Western Michigan (8-4) GMAC BOWL Moble, Ala.Jan. 7, 8 p.m. (ESPN) Southern Miss (8-5) vs. Ohio (9-4) BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME Glendale, Ariz.Jan. 8, 8 p.m. (Fox) Ohio State (12-0) vs. Florida (12-1)
Hi WB, Double Bubble Trouble, I would say.
Hope you had a nice day.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
We have real estate market crash and now we will have equity market crash. Higher it goes, severe the crash will be, double crash effect, i.e. Real estate market crash and Equity market crash. NOT good idea to go IT LONG.
SC Dynamic Yield Curve Animation
http://stockcharts.com/charts/YieldCurve.html
http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/bbs?post_id=7826921
Iran changes their mind like flip-flop; hence, we can't rely on their words; but, we need to be cautious as we need to think and to prepare for the worst case since they didn't show, "INTEGRITY".
We can't trust their words, like we can't trust those, anyone, who do not show integrity.
WB, did you hear a news on Iran as well as the threat?
Contrary to immedicate intuition against the threat, as you have noted, it is trading down.
Good trades
Note) the analyst who downgraded AMD must be laughing so hard now.
~~~~~~
Oil is trading down, ~ 1.50, at the moment even though we have Iran threat, "using OIL as a weapon."
As shown below, IRAN is running out of OIL as a study suggests. Why not cooperate instead of making troubles? As we have shown, "Philanthropic spirit" in the past, it is better to work together, instead of making threats.
<hr>
Study: Oil decline threatens Iran
By Barry Schweid
Associated Press
Published December 26, 2006
WASHINGTON -- Iran is suffering a staggering decline in revenue from its oil exports, and if the trend continues income could virtually disappear by 2015, according to an analysis published Monday in a journal of the National Academy of Sciences.
Iran's economic woes could make the country unstable and vulnerable, with its oil industry crippled, Roger Stern, an economic geographer at Johns Hopkins University, said in the report and in an interview.
Iran earns about $50 billion a year from oil exports. The decline is estimated at 10 to 12 percent annually. In less than five years exports could be halved and then disappear by 2015, Stern predicted.
For two decades, the United States has deployed military forces in the region in a strategy to pre-empt emergence of a regional superpower.
Iraq was stopped in the 1991 Persian Gulf war, but a hostile Iran remains a target of U.S. threats.
The U.S. military exercises have not stopped Iran's drive. But the report said the country could be destabilized by declining oil exports, hostility to foreign investment to develop new oil resources and poor state planning, Stern said.
Stern's analysis, which appears in this week's edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, supports U.S. and European suspicions that Iran is trying to develop nuclear weapons. But, Stern says, there could be merit to Iran's assertion that it needs nuclear power for civilian purposes "as badly as it claims."
He said oil production is declining and both gas and oil are being sold domestically at highly subsidized rates. At the same time, Iran is neglecting to reinvest in its oil production.
"With an explosive demand at home and poor management, the appeal of nuclear power, financed by Russia, could fill a real need for production of more electricity."
Iran produces about 3.7 million barrels of oil a day, about 300,000 barrels below the quota set for Iran by the oil cartel, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
The shortfall represents a loss of about $5.5billion a year, Stern said. In 2004, Iran's oil profits were 65 percent of the government's revenues.
"If we look at that shortfall, and failure to rectify leaks in their refineries, that adds up to a loss of about $10billion to $11billion a year," he said. "That is a picture of an industry in collapse."
If the United States can "hold its breath" for a few years it may find Iran a much more conciliatory country, he said. And that, Stern said, is good reason to belay any instinct to take on Iran militarily.
"What they are doing to themselves is much worse than anything we could do," he said.
"The one thing that would unite the country right now is to bomb them," Stern said. "Here is one problem that might solve itself."
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/chi-0612260029dec26,1,675986.story?coll=chi-newsnatio....
<hr>
Oil Minister says Iran could use oil exports as weapon
Iran's Parliament has begun examining a law reviewing co-operation with the United Nation's nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency. The move follows the UN Security Council resolution passed on Saturday, imposing sanctions on Tehran over its nuclear programme. Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said those backing the resolution would regret it. Tehran announced plans to immediately install 3,000 centrifuges at a uranium enrichment plant at Natanz. Iran's Oil Minister has been quoted as saying Tehran will cut off its oil exports as a weapon to defend itself.
But a report in the National Academy of Sciences journal states there could be merit to Iran's assertion that it needs nuclear power for civilian purposes "as badly as it claims." Economic Geographer Roger Stern, from Johns Hopkins University, says Tehran's oil production is declining. He says if the trend continues, its income from oil exports could virtually disappear by 2015. The UN sanctions, passed unanimously, ban the supply of nuclear materials to Iran, if it doesn't end uranium enrichment activity that can produce fuel for nuclear plants as well as for bombs.
http://euronews.net/create_html.php?page=detail_info&article=397974&lng=1
wonderbuy, HAPPY HOLIDAYS to you as well.
Best Wishes
Hi WB, which one are you referring to, QQQQ?
I was making calls on CS.
Do you remember the QCOM note of Shooting star? yours
Guided lower, testing B/O right now.
http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/bbs?post_id=7821077
HAPPY HOLIDAYS
$TRAN was showing weakness as noted before, yes. For ST, Supports at 4520/4395 area. 60m is O/S with Positive D; hence anticipating a bounce.
Merry Christmas
http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/bbs?post_id=7816557
QQQQ TL: the recent pull back which is nothing compare to the rally that we have seen. The recent, small pull-back can be seen through weak breadth. Now it is at the bottom trading range with intra 60m O/S; hence, we still need to be careful.
Happy Holiday
http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/bbs?post_id=7819634
What I meant to say was "Sure GLAD to hear" that you have the extra Christmas gift...
Volumes are relatively low as noted before.
WB, yes, sure to hear that you have the extra Christmas Gift...
QQQQ is showing intra TL break as we can see on 60m chart; but, as you also noted, it is still in the trading range -- one month trading range as you can see on the daily chart.
The NAS breadth is continuing to show negative divergences, e.g. $NASI; hence, I am looking for technical confirmation for a pull back. Having said that, I don't think that we are forming LT top.
SPX also retrieved from the SPX 1430, lower/high, on the daily chart without making a new high as it is showing negative divergence.
We have light trading volume today as commented during the last week.
Good trades
Intra Resistance... TL
http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/bbs?post_id=7817224
WB, as posted to Paul, I am being cautious about market direction. While internal is weak, price action could be taking longer to reflect the market internal.
Have a nice day
Posted by: __1Best__
In reply to: POKERSAM who wrote msg# 8545 Date:12/20/2006 12:16:45 PM
Post #of 8546
Hi Paul,
Greetings
This is 1best from CS, the only alias, __1Best__, which I used to post on iHub.
If you don't want me to post on your board, that is fine with me; just, let me know. I have no problem with having different opinion on the market with civility. Don't have the time to post often, but just want to stop by.
I was commenting on negative breadth during the last week; but, the Fed is supporting this parablic move which I sense. Based on the rally that we have seen and based on the breadth negative divergences, I'd rather see a correction; but, I am careful about the current bullish sentiment as I closely watch technical price actions.
Happy holiday and good luck
WB, yes, dividend pay out which other posters point out. I didn't pay attention to it.