It is about time ERHE comes back to life.
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Up only ~10% after the CEO updates us.....
That is obviously a sign we should get a new CEO...lol
In all seriousness, I liked the update today. Very clear and honest update on all fronts. Nothing earth shattering or new but if they continue to deliver a timely update, it should be appreciated by most serious investors.
My two cents regarding JDZ: I think a lot more is hinging on the Total drilling of block 1 than most predict. If Total hits more oil and can confirm a good reason for continued exploration, there is no way Sinopec abandons the other blocks. This would just confirm exactly what Total said when they bought into Block 1. They have more experience in this type of exploration and are better at exploiting it. Sinopec is their partner in Block 1 and next door at APKO. They are as eager as the rest of us for Total to show us a way.
mz157
When discussing whether institutions buy penny stocks or not, you state:
" not true - nothing prevents an institution from buying a penny stocks as long as their bylaws or prospectus allows it. one of the many message board myths."
I currently have spent the past 16 years working for two large institutions in senior management. Although not on the investment team, I hear everything and am very familiar with what they can and can't do from their bylaws along with what they would do in reality. From my experience, this is not a message board myth. My previous employer (multi,multi-billion in AUM) could not invest in penny stocks (under $1) in the bylaws. My current employer (multi-billion AUM) will not invest in penny stocks.
In reality, these investment professionals have tons and tons of viable investment options to chose from that fit into various investment strategies. Most penny stocks do not have the data or historical data to run through their models to become viable candidates (like quarter over quarter or year over year earnings data).
In general, institutional analysts do not get caught up in the "interesting" stories that each of these penny stocks want to tell..... It is irrelevant to non-emotional based model analysis.
One other huge factor with Penny stocks is that most do not even have enough consistent historical daily volume to be a viable candidate. Keep in mind that institutions deal with fairly large $$ amounts needing to be invested even when a strategy only takes a very minor position (like 2%). This 2% position must be able to be moved in and back out without a substantial change to the share price or it breaks their models.
Just an fyi.
I think all options you listed are currently priced in.
I feel it was obvious back in the fall of last year that when Total changed their block 1 drilling into the first quarter of 2012, it would be a given that Sinopec would request and most likely recieve another extension. 6 or 12 months is the only question at this point. I feel the share price dropped about 5 - 10 cents on that news alone back at the time.
Unless Total strikes out and abandon's the JDZ, it should be all up from this point for the ERHE share price. We just don't know when it will begin it's rise.
Oh man! Closed unchanged but that doesn't change the FACT that at one point in time today, you were down 0.00337 per share. This obviously proves beyond the shadow of a doubt that Ntephe has never accomplished anything in his life and never will. If fact, doesn't this prove that Ntephe really was never born?
I hold him responsible and I shall write my congressmen.
Everyone enjoy your long weekend. I think the fun is just about to begin.
Make sure you enjoy the ride!
And . . . . . . poof. There went the cheeseburger....lol
ah. It is still early in the day. good luck
midtieroil,
I want to start by saying I agree with some of your gripes about stated goals not getting accomplished. I just don't agree to the extent you want changes and to the degree to which you go to blame or to the degree you discount or ignore proven facts and accomplishments.
Here are some balanced views from my perspective on your post:
"We were in the big leagues at one time because everyone wanted a piece of the JDZ and ERHE had it AND they had a direct line to the powers in charge in Nigeria...."
I agree whole heartedly with that statement. You go on to say:
"I think the exact opposite is true now. Nobody has stepped up in the EEZ ..... I don't see that much interest in Chad either so far...."
I agree that it is different but I don't agree it is opposite. I think the major contributing factor in the lack of interest in the EEZ so far is due to the preliminary work that has NOT been done. This is the fault of STP and no one else. They jumped the gun and are paying the price. In the JDZ, PGS did full 3D seismic on the entire 9 blocks and came back with specific targets and a rough estimate of 14 Billion barrels of oil in the JDZ. These are facts that the oil companies could bid on. In the EEZ, there is very little seismic analysis and to my understanding, only some 2D and some 3D in selected areas. There have been no official estimates from any specific targets. THAT is why oil companies aren't busting down the doors of STP to get their acreage. The reality is this, IMHO: ERHE and EEL selected the 4 most choice blocks that are closest to shore (less depth and known oil slicks on the shores of STP); had the most 2D and 3D done (but still no estimates); closest to other countries with proven off shore wells; and too little is known on the rest so the big players will wait because they can. Believe me, if and when STP bites the bullet and pays for full 3D seismics' and they come up with third party estimates of let's say 15 billion barrels, interest will come pouring in. STP has made the choice of asking interested companies to foot their own bill on doing the preliminary analysis or better seismics.
As for Chad, I agree with you. I am not that excited about it. I don't have a strong opinion either way with the little we do know about it. I am willing to give them (ERHE) enough rope to hang themselves with (even though I don't have that authority or voting power). If nothing else, it gives them another potential asset that may pay off and they can work on it simultaneously with the JDZ, EEZ and other stuff they come up with.
"Things are not the way they were when we received those hefty payments for the rights in the JDZ. ....Ntephe keeps telling how ERHC got things done and got wells drilled and got all this money.... The problem is he had nothing to do with any of that and he appears unqualified to repeat that success...."
I agree that things are not the way they were but my reasoning is primarily due to lack of third party studies which could change this picture rapidly. As for Ntephe, here is where you and I must be reading different filings from the company..... You say he had nothing to do with ANY of that and he is unqualified..... Please reread the website. Ntephe has been with ERHE since 2001. From the website "His roles have included key participation in the negotiation, securing and maintenance of the Company's oil and gas interests in the Gulf of Guinea." Both SEO and Ntephe were here and participated in the success to date for EHRE. They are both still here and I suspect they are both still interested in the success of ERHE. Yes, they have different titles. That is not my concern. You chose to ignore that much if not all is still the same and they very well could repeat that success. I go on to point out that Ntephe has a Master of Science degree from the University of London, along with a degree in management to accompany his three degrees in law (now what do you have, lol???).
I am not saying that Ntephe has been perfect, nor that there aren't others out there in the world that could help ERHE do even better but I refuse to do arm chair CEO'ing and make a multitude of unsubstantiated comments to Ntephe's qualifications from a person with even less qualifications! (I put myself in that group).
Just think, with one simple discovery, sometime in the future, in any one of the ERHE assets, ALL this could change and all of our disagreements will be moot.
Wow, Brez. You and I were on the same wave length. I must have been typing my response at the same time.
Great post.
Jeez, Midtieroil. I was so impressed with one of your posts yesterday because it came off as balanced even though it had some negative slant. Today, you have fallen off the deep end again. Does sugar improve your mood? Maybe take a break and eat some M&M's or something. As much as you are "sick and tired" of what you perceive ERHE management of doing or not doing (even though you have no idea what they are doing along with the rest of us), many posters (myself included) are sick and tired of your tunnel vision, one sided negative slant on everything.
Let me give you a specific example. Your first paragraph is all about ERHE's burn rate and cash reserves. You throw out unsubstantiated opinions as facts or as the only option available for ERHE. IMHO, your statements are total BS. "two years of operating cash left... not really enough to play in the big leagues in the oil industry". Refute: ERHE had $0 cash and 0 relationships with oil companies for YEARS. What happened? Gee, they originally signed agreements with two well established midlevel oil explorers. When that fell apart, they rebounded and got Addax and Sinopec. One midlevel oil company and one in the top 5 in the world. They got CASH when they didn't have any. They got Carries when NO other player in the entire JDZ could. Admit it. ERHE has proven resiliency with NO cash and NO partnerships and you ignore this proven historical fact. You claim we have seen "no real plan to get more cash or cut expenses". BS! They have proven with a shelf listing that it is possible to raise some cash that way and they are WISELY not tapping it again at the current share price. When positive momentum begins, this may prove to be a very good source for additional cash. Also, they have proven by their year over year filings that they HAVE already cut expenses dramatically (something like 40% if I recall correctly), yet you ignore this fact. Maybe, just maybe, they know more about the status of potential deals in the making than you do. If things really did start to look dire on ALL fronts, they could probably cut expenses to the bone and have decades of time with a minor loan from their biggest shareholder, Chrome. This is not likely to happen, IMHO, but it is available now as it has been proven to be available in the past. And stop with the scare tactics. Chrome gets the exact same negative impact to dilution as the rest of us so everyone should take a chill pill when it comes to the WILD speculation of intentional share price depreciation just to increase percentage holding by Chrome or SEO. NOT GOING TO HAPPEN! Think law suit here and what a waist of time and energy when the real gain comes from oil exploration or business ventures.
Ok, now I need to go eat some M&M's...lol.
If you open your eyes and look for the positives, you will find it. Life is good.
Midtieroil,
Actually, I think this is one of your best posts yet. Thank you for a more complete picture of your opinion.
I would agree that management has made some blunders and has created some negative effect on the share price. My impression from most of your posts is that you blamed a bulk if not all the share price erosion on management. Maybe that is just because management is the only thing you can actively work on changing since the drilling results are what they are and tax loss selling will go away when the share price heads into new historical highs going into the 4th quarter of a year.
I would even go out on a limb and say your approximate numbers are close to mine. I just don't want to waste more money on increasing the talent of our management team without the drilling results to back up a change in the stage I see this company going through.
Uh Oh. ERHE is up over 10%. The tides may have turned.
If it continues up, will Midtieroil start praising management?...
TOB,
Now that was a funny reply. I just spit my coffee all over my keyboard.
Happy new year everyone. May this be the year ERHE hits its stride on a new upward trend (and break a 10 year high record).
I think this will happen, I just don't know when this year. A lot of positive things to come about this year on several fronts. It will really only take one to begin the momentum and I think it will happen in the first quarter.
Good luck all
Or better yet is if Total/SNP picked up the other 85% of Block 5 to go with ERHE's 15%. That would be a stunner.
Dang. Someone just laid down $22.50 on that 300 share trade. We could have had some pretty good rumors going in no time.
We may be halted. Where is Oilphant when we have such a good opportunity. We are probably halted while management considers that $14 per share buyout offer by Total.
(just having fun on a slow day, lol)
Nice connection. Thanks for posting that info. Maybe ERHE knows more about the interest in the area than we do....
wtao,
Very unlikely scenario you present (but possible) and I will give you my opinion why.
If at .08 a RS happens and ERHE opens at .80 with 73 million shares, it will rapidly tank (my guess .20 - .40). Then if they attempted to raise the remaining $47,000,000 from the shelf they would need to sell 235,000,000 new shares at .20 with a remaining total of 308,000,000 share for which SEO would own around 36,000,000. He would lose control easily and this whole venture of his would be lost.
This is an over simplification of potential future events and it probably would not unfold all at once but the market would quickly catch on to the desperation for raising capital and reflect it in the share price.
One final comment about the shelf. Due to the share price reaction to the mini-shelf placement in 2010, it will be extremely hard for ERHE to even find suitors to purchase private placement shares UNTIL some major news hits. This is why I have NO fear of ERHE hitting the shelf for anything anytime soon.
All bets are off if Total strikes more oil in Block 1; Total hints of area wide development; or if SEO and ERHE strikes another ADDAX type deal in the EEZ (cash plus carry) or Chad.
Krombacher,
You use some pretty good logic and reason for your position. I don't rule that out as one of the posibilities.
I do, however, think ERHE is not ready yet for a complete buyout. I think there may be an interim step which will help all parties involved.
I could very much see a scenario like this: Sinopec sells a portion of their Blocks 2, 3, & 4 to Total; ERHE sells a portion of their blocks 2, 3, & 4 to Total; Total becomes main operator for blocks 1, 2, 3, & 4. All parties are happy.
ERHE gets a bunch of much needed cash. They then can move on to Chad, EEZ, Imo state, etc. to not lose out of the potential of what they have started.
JMHO.
I do feel we will see much price appreciation sooner than most speculate here which is in line with your timing.
Ouch! but kind of funny really.
Another future follow up. I would like to see the CEO compensation poll run again after ERHE has a spike to .50 or greater to see current sentiment then.
Keep in mind, us poor shareholders (me included) that vote on these polls rarely if ever have spoken to Ntephe or really know what he does. I would venture to guess, none of us are qualified to determine whether he is being fairly compensated or not at this point. Not to say we don't have an opinion or that it might make better business sence to have part of his compensation linked directly to the share price....
Great post Umbra. Scary to think about but I agree with most of your sentiment. The company I work for follows the world financial markets very closely and I can confirm that our sentiment is very similar. We have some specific hedge strategies set up to weather this storm but everything I have heard from the analysts is that it is all a matter of time not if. Not enough solvent banks or financial institutions to bail out the number that are in trouble. Now it is a controlling game to see who is the last bank standing.
This is also why we are seeing China do an asset grab with their $$. Natural Resources = power and I don’t see that trend changing anytime soon. This is also why, IMHO, a company like ERHE that is purely an asset play will pay off big when they do discover commercial oil/gas.
Love that response but again, my perspective is that the truth lies somewhere in between.
Ntephe is not perfect (then again, who is?), but given the current stage ERHE is in, I feel he is doing the job that the Board (and SEO) is expecting of him. Yes, we would all love it for everything to come together over night and for ERHE's partners to discover 10 billion barrels of oil in just our blocks, but that is not likely. Therefore, I don't see any need for changing the guard.
Thanks for the balancing response.
Buffalo Trader, I stand corrected. I had read that 10Q when if was first released but had forgotten about it. Thanks for the reminder and the good DD.
I would not say that Ntephe is negligent but I wish they would stop saying "soon" or be better about following up with at least more details than they have previously provided. I don't think there is a plausible excuse for NO followup on Chad after 5 months. They could at least provide an update to what time frames they 'hope' to get certain milestones accomplished like finding a partner or doing seismics or starting the drilling. Even if they are flexible dates like first half 2013 for drilling, etc.
I agree with your assessment of history. The general public has been given many hints at this or that by numerous sources. It creates the speculative environment that we are in with ERHE. Unfortunately, when we go into a quiet period (as we are in now), the price drifts way down as we tend to speculate to the worst case scenario. Oh no, 5 wells drilled of just dirt. Oh no, the Chinese are stupid and will never discover oil. Oh no, ERHE is going to run out of money. Oh no, SEO is going to secretly sell the entire company for 10 cents to himself.
To the flip side, I don’t think they discovered 3 billion barrels of oil in a river flowing underneath the earth that all ends up in block 4 and “they” are conspiring to keep it a secret until “they” can buy in cheap either. I also don’t think it is all doom and gloom for at least 8 more years as some here would like to suggest. I think the truth lies somewhere in between and we actually will find out what this truth is when true commercial discoveries are ready to publish.
I feel the company has to take the most conservative approach they can with their communication primarily due to the threat of future investigations that they have first-hand experience in. They also know, it takes a lot of time for this business to develop (regardless of the impatience of the OTC:BB investor/gambler). Meanwhile, I feel the company is doing the right thing by trying to diversify their portfolio of potential assets like we have seen with the Chad agreements and the IMO state potential deals, etc. We may not like the speed at which things occur or get announced but I am still confident in the general direction they are headed.
At some point in time in the future, IMHO, we will see another flurry of interest and eventually, I am speculating that at least one of the assets will discover commercial quantities of oil/gas. I look forward to the next 800% gain as I still see the potential of the next rally being the start of the 8000% that many here dream of.
Good luck to all.
Shhhh! do not wake that character up. I don't think I can take any more riddles... lol
Any update on the Pacific Scirocco's voyage?
Still moving in the right direction?
Fun days ahead.
My condolences to Greg’s family. He was a respected poster and he contributed greatly to this board. Even when we disagreed on some issues, he was a very respectful poster who put a lot of thought and effort into his posts. He will truly be missed.
Nice to see the Pacific Scirocco is underway. Heading for JDZ block 1 now. My guess is it will be drilling before end of year but we won't hear results until early 2012.
Very good points deadeyeca.
Almost 3 million shares traded with 2 hours to go.
Maybe a start of something good?
Interesting perspective Cardinal.
I am showing real time volume at 2,474,500.
Maybe we see news later today or is it the imfamous "F&F" getting back in. Who knows.
Everyone, enjoy your Friday.
This obviously shows the "no respect for Ntephe" that MTO keeps harping as fact.
Oh, wait. It is just the opposite.
Looks to me that progress is being made behind the scenes that we are not all privy to.
Keep up the good work ERHE.
Krom,
Congratulations! It sounds like you are representing ERHE at this meeting which could bring about a signed contract...LOL.
Sounds like a language barrier mis-communication to me. But, please feel free to go the meeting on ERHE behalf or pass your registration on to someone from ERHE instead.
That is funny.
MTO, or your answer (which has been answered many times over and over) falls on your deaf ears!
You may continue to ignore the real facts (no commercial oil discovered yet) for the price decline over the past several years but you have increasingly added to the downward pressure both directly (with your admitted selling of 1/3 of your position) and indirectly, with your repeated blatant defamation campaign of ERHE's CEO. Eventually, I feel, your campaign will also fail. It will only take one commercial oil discovery in any one of the blocks ERHE either currently has or will acquire over time, to send this stock forward by many multiples. I, and many others of the silent majority (by proof of no action against Ntephe yet) are confident Ntephe is doing a fine job for the current status of ERHE.
ERHE was an Asset holder when I purchase this stock many years ago and they still have not changed that model. I don’t want them to and I vote my opinion by continuing to hold and/or acquire more shares. I am very happy that other world class operators are in control over the potential oil discoveries. I feel we have much less risk that way. It is a very straight forward stock bet that we will or will not make a commercial oil discovery. I don’t care who is at the helm when our partner discovers oil and neither will the incoming investors at that time.
On a brief side note: I completely agree with your arguments yesterday that ERHE should hold an annual shareholder meeting. There is NO excuse for not having one. This action alone contributes to the negative pressure on the stock, IMHO. I don’t, however, use this as an argument to Ntephe’s competency. I simply look at it as a easily rectifiable oversight.
ERHE, please schedule a shareholder’s meeting soon, even if it is just at a Starbuck’s around the corner from your office!
tryoty, Perfectly stated. So much so, it is worth repeating:
MTO
"You can't change Ntephe, but you can change *your* behavior. A lot of people on this board are hurting, and you are doing everything in your power to hurt them more by pushing this stock lower, presumably because you think that a poster pushing a stock down will cause the Board to conclude the CEO must be fired. That's a crazy expectation.
Write every Director. Write Ntephe. Write the SEC.
Take your case to someone... *anyone*... that can help you. Nobody here can. I know you wrote the Board last year... do it again. You have no problem writing the same thing over and over here, so what's the problem?"
So eloquently stated, I was laughing.
Great example of what could happen one day with ERHE.
Some nay-sayers around here have said that if a buyout were to occur that it would only be a small gain from the then current share price. They claim large multiples never occur because companies can buy out other companies on the open market for less (not likely IMHO). I see a real example today of how I suspect it will go down with ERHE.
I do not feel there is going to be a ERHE buyout in the next 30 days or so but when it does happen, I expect to see something similar to ANDS. This stock was trading around the .75 range in the past 30 days. It closed Friday at $1.04. Today, it is currently trading at $3.65 due to buyout news over the weekend. That is .75 to $3.65 in less than 30 days. What a beautiful site to see. My congrats go out to any and all holders of this stock. I was not following this stock but a friend was and this morning he sold all.
Surprises still occur and large multiples on buyout news also still occur.
This will happen here, it is just a matter of time.
Good luck all.
Well, we certainly know the money didn't come from PN cashing in any of his stock options.....
LOL. Now I didn't say he did anything in Houston....lol. But, at least when he is in town and staying at his own personal residence, it doesn't cost us shareholders any more. I would guess he owns his own residence in Nigeria also.
This does not surprise me that PN owns a condo in Houston. He has a place to live when he is in town and it doesn't cost ERHE hotel expenses. Smart for both the company and PN.
I think more as a joke. Oilphant has showed up a couple of times during BB's absence.
I don't think there is any relation between the two posters.
midtieroil,
I respect your opinion. I applaud your tenacity. And I may even side with some of your opinions occasionally but right now, I disagree on the timing.
If ERHE (or Sinopec/Addax) had discovered oil and the share price shot up to $4 a share and then it drifted back down below a $1, I would be standing next to you with my picket signs demanding a resignation (granted I would be just as mad at myself for not taking a profit along the way). But my current opinion is that for the stage that ERHE is in at this time and with the African assets it holds, I can’t say that Ntephe is not the right person for the job. Once oil is discovered and we see what direction ERHE decides to take (build a real oil company or continue as an asset only play), I may think differently.
Good luck to you.