Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Yes I did. It was very enlightening. Sometimes my memory fades. I will try to do a better job remembering next time. ROTFLMAO.
Good to see everyone is in complete agreement that ERHE will be awarded significant percentages in the various blocks.
Mongo you seem to shy away from responding to my posts.
Do you think there will be another delay in the awards process? My personal opinion is there wont be a delay this time but that is only an educated guess.
Back to the boiler room for the boys.
Mongo, do you mind if I respond as well?
First I would say that by the tone of this question, you are admitting that ERHE will win block awards. So thank you for finally acknowledging that. You are a little behind the curve but congratulations are in order. What took you so long to figure it out?
When will production actually come online? That is a loaded question. A more relevant question would be when will the first exploration wells be drilled. After all, you know as well as I do that initially reserves will drive share price. Not actual production. When Chevron starts drilling in block 1 and hits some big targets the stocks of all the companies involved in the JDZ will appreciate in value. I would expect that to take place this year.
What is your best guess at the capital expenditure that will be required? Oh so that is your next mode of attack. I see. Apparently you think that a companies assets are worthless? Is that correct Mongo? So if company A has percentage rights in acreage worth billions of barrels of oil according to you it is worth the same as company B who owns no rights to any properties because neither company has producing properties yet.
That is a ridiculous asserion on your part. ERHE's assets will be very valuable once they are actually awarded and that will give them the necessary leverage to negotiate and reduce there actual expenditures. They could do this a number of ways. Will some dilution be necessary? Of course. But the majority will not come from dilution. The percentages they hold in the Gulf of Guinea will give them incrdible leverage to barter.
Now let me ask you a question.
WHAT IS YOUR PURPOSE HERE?
TIA and have a good day.
"I do find it odd that PXD's CEO made his statement about drilling in "deep water off Nigeria" back in mid-February stating it would be PR'ed after governmental approval. These blocks they are currently drilling have yet to be PR'ed"
Thats a good point Balance. I hope you are correct.
Balance, I believe they will have to shoot more 3D before they can start drilling so I dont think the Pioneer CEO was referring to the JDZ when he made those comments. Nevertheless, it is going to be exciting when the drill bit starts turning and they start going after those large targets. 200,000 to 700,000 targets are what makes the Gulf of Guinea so attractive. Remember Western Geco estimated 14 billion barrels based on only 17 targets within the nine blocks in the JDZ.
(P.S. Monkey what in the world is the matter with you? Why in the world were you the only one who responded like you did to my last post? No one else did? Why would you? It was a very generic post where I clearly stated "It has nothing to do with ERHE". Learn to relax for cripe sake lol. Your turning into Rancho LMBO.)
OT Interesting post from someone on RB last night describing some "bashing crew" who apparently bashed some other stock (not ERHE). Im sure it is not relevant here but was nonetheless an interesting read.
By: robot.cloaks
02 Apr 2005, 12:15 AM EST
Msg. 18568 of 18671
Jump to msg. #
they will bring in a professional crew.
they will call the regulators with fake reports.
_____ has been tied in court documents to public corruption of several public officials in arkansas/us.
they are very sophisticated.
international operators.
they are desperate.
nearly broke.
morons.
Goodnight monkey.
You have not answered the question sufficiently. Your story is not believable.
Your messages tonight will be eliminated here anyway. So your just wasting your breath. (And so will some of mine Im sure too lol).
This is the ERHE board.
Why are you here?
Why are you here?
Another inconsequential post by monkeytrots. Why do you spend so much time concerning yourself with ERHC?
TommyLA are u here. You wanna rent a cell phone.
Volume was a little light today but that is to be expected. Awards are still at least a week away and probably two. People tend to be myopic in the stock market. 2 weeks away is an eternity to them. The main thing for now if you are looking short term is the chart is still in tact.
This is from Upstream Online. Sorry i dont have the link. As I said yesterday this area is most exciting to me personally. The Sao Tome EEZ. Even if we have delays in the JDZ we have the Sao Tome EEZ just around the corner. Anyone who doesnt understand its importance doesnt know anything about the oil business.
Equator acquiring African seismic
06:49 GMT
UK junior Equator Exploration has started the acquisition of 5100 line kilometres of infill 2D seismic acquisition in Sao Tome and Principe's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).
The acquisition, which is being shot in partnership with Petroleum Geo-Services (PGS), will complement the previous 5100 line kilometres of 2D seismic acquired by PGS and Equator in 2001 and 2002 in the EEZ. It will also further delineate and enhance the numerous prospects and hydrocarbon potential already identified within the EEZ by Equator.
Meanwhile, Equator said that it will commence negotiations with the government of Sao Tome and Principe on production sharing contract terms for its two option blocks in the near term.
Following the interpretation of the 2D seismic programme and selection of its two option blocks, Equator will commence a 3D seismic acquisition programme.
Personally I am anxious for this JDZ licensing round to be completed. Why you might ask? Because a larger prize awaits.
That larger prize is the two 100% blocks that ERHE will have rights to in the Sao Tome EEZ. Oh and by the way, they are signature bonus free. ERHE can choose the right partner, can drill according to their own schedule, and wont have to deal with all of the complicating issues that have made the JDZ licensing round such a long and protracted process.
Just think about that. Two 100% blocks that are signature bonus free. (Not to mention two additional blocks in the EEZ where ERHE has 15% rights). All of these rights in the EEZ are not even priced into the stock yet. Those in the oil business know just how enormous these rights are.
Fortunately for ERHE Sao Tome appears to be making the prudent decision. They want to develop this area as soon as possible. They want to start the awards process this year. This will provide some serious momentum to ERHE's stock price in the latter half of the year.
<<oilman - the JDA probably has all the authority they wish to exert.>>
Ok Monkey so you believe that the JDA "probably" does ultimately have the authority to force Exxons hand if they want to. I agree with that.
<<The question is - are they willing to ignore the issues that XOM is arguing about?>>
What are the major issues? IMHO the major issues are that Exxon made a mistake by failing to bid for an operatorship in the second round and are now trying to rectify that mistake. IMO that is not the JDA's problem. If Exxon wanted operatorship they should have bid for one up front. If that is indeed the issue. Who really knows for sure? Certainly not I.
<<If XOM were to walk - what would be the ramifications for the JDA being able to signup anybody?>>
Monkey there are plenty of other companies eager to do business in the JDZ. Pioneer, Noble, Devon, Anandarko, and Conoil to name a few. If Exxon were to walk other companies would be eager to fill the void IMO.
<<After all - no cash in hand for JDA, yet.>>
True, but could they legally back out of a signed PSC? And if they do back out (which I doubt that they would or could) Im sure there are any number of companies willing to take their place.
Does anyone have any thoughts on Exxon? Will they exercise or will they look for a loophole to drag things out beyond April 9th? Does such a loophole exist? Could they possibly stall this thing out further? Does the JDA have the authority to force their hand?
These really are the key questions at this point. its all about Exxon. IMO
Any and all opinions are welcome.
Many investors actually prefer that management own a larger percentage of shares. It makes them more accountable to their shareholders. If the CEO of ERHE owned 1% of the shares what would be their incentive to make decisions that will bolster the share price? Would they have as much incetive as say a CEO who owned 40% of the shares? I think not.
Obviously when a CEO owns a greater percentage of shares there is a greater likelihood that he will make decisions which are best for the overall corporate share price. Its simple common sense.
Mongo no problem.
Mongo I will respectfully retract that statement as I have no proof with which to substantiate my beliefs. It is only my opinion.
Below is an excellent post from strategyone from RB today. Like him I am very excited about the two 100% blocks in the Sao Tome EEZ. That is the true "ace in the hole" for ERHE IMHO.
A Thought for Discussion:
Not that I take what Barry Morgan types at face value but let's assume for a moment that he is pretty close to facts on this one. ERHE/Pioneer is in line to win blocks 2 & 3. XOM is trying it's best to work with Anadarko to win Block 4. ERHE/Noble currently have very tempting offer on the table of fast tracking 3 wells in one year. A very good analytical post was presented by mabeen1 (post 16126) showing the present value advantage of ERHE/Noble's 3 wells in one year versus Anadarko's 1 well in three years. XOM may be able to sweeten the Anadarko deal in a couple ways. First, it may be willing to use its abilities to increase the number of wells drilled or decrease the number of years before the second well is drilled. The second benefit XOM seems to state is it's supposed superior technology to know "where" to drill (which I believe has merit due to the size and power of XOM). This may bring the present value numbers more in line with each other. Then the JDZ have the political pressures of XOM being the biggest oil giant in the world which looks very good to have them involved in as many blocks as possible (within reason of course).
Here is a interest thought that came across my mind: Let's say JDZ awards block 4 to XOM/Anadarko. The JDZ finally award all 5 blocks on current bid. ERHE/Pioneer go forward with blocks 2 & 3...........STP now is free to open up their EEZ.......Since ERHE is sitting on 2 100% free blocks of the EEZ (granted after several other preferred rights are taken), ERHE/Noble could be set rather quickly to sink those same 3 wells in one year in one or both of those EEZ blocks. As soon as the JDZ is done awarding these 5 blocks, I think we will start hearing STP putting together their EEZ process. They have already hinted at it being in 2005. I also think that since ERHE has 2 100% blocks free of signature bonus, that these won't take much time to figure out and will probably be resolved BEFORE STP puts out their EEZ for bid. This I think is extremely likely.
Granted STP will benefit the most from not loosing too much by having ERHE/Noble drill their proposed 3 wells in the EEZ instead of the JDZ. Nigeria may still push for a ERHE/Noble win in Block 4......
Any other thoughts on this are welcome.
JMC awaits ExxonMobil on JDZ acreage
http://www.independentng.com/news/nnmar250508.htm
By Bassey Udo, Energy Editor
***JMC awaits ExxonMobil on JDZ acreage***
By Bassey Udo, Energy Editor
The Joint Ministerial Council (JMC) of the Nigeria-Sao Tome and Principe Joint Development Zone (JDZ) is still awaiting ExxonMobil decision to exercise its rights in the five oil blocs put on offer in the 2004 licensing round.
The American oil firm, by virtue of its operating in the region prior to the 2001 treaty creating the JDZ, has 40 percent rights in one of the five oil blocs and 25 percent each in two others.
Last month, the JDA formally notified the company to move within 30 days to exercise its preferential rights to pave the way for the final appraisal of the bids and announcement of the result.
Following its requests for further information on the 26 bids harvested from 22 prospective investors that participated in the bids exercise, its management met two weeks ago with the JDA to resolve outstanding issues to assist its final decision.
Though a source close to the company last week expressed high optimism that the company was interested in exercising its rights, particularly in Blocs 2 and 4, he said a review of the agreements was on to report to the JDA before the April 8 deadline.
But, Thursday the JDA frowned at recent reports that the 30 days deadline had been extended, pointing out that though all relevant materials and information relating to the transaction were made available to the company on March 9, it was currently handling settlement of third party interest agreements reached with all the parties, adding that as soon as ExxonMobil exercises its options, the JMC will convene to approve the awards.
ExxonMobil is already operating in the premier oil Bloc-1 in the zone through its subsidiary, Esso Exploration and Production Nigeria-São Tomé "One" Limited, in partnership with ChevronTexaco JDZ Limited, the operator of the concession, and Dangote Energy Equity Resources (DEER) Limited, a Joint Venture between the Dangote Group of Nigeria and Energy Equity Resources AS of Norway.
***Petrol thrown on Nigeria fire ***
00:11 GMT
A particularly challenging week has just ended for observers of the Nigerian petroleum industry.
Investors are watching for decisive government action to calm nerves as markets blame renewed strike threats for adding to an unprecedented spike in oil prices and as illegal oil bunkering returns in the creeks and ill-policed installations in Lagos.
Nobody is happy. On the fiscal front, Shell and other joint venture partners of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) have castigated proposals that would force them to refine 25% of their Nigerian output locally and retroactively cut cost recovery terms to 80%, while increasing petroleum profit tax in offshore production sharing contracts.
The Oil Producers Trade Section, the multinationals' lobby group which negotiates directly with the government, has cried foul, arguing that such "unfriendly" amendments would deter investment in multi-billion dollar oil projects.
If enacted, such a law could "effectively stall growth in the deep-water oil and gas industry at a critical time", according to Shell Nigeria E&P (Snepco) managing director Chima Ibeneche.
At stake is Shell's $3.5 billion Bonga field, already two years delayed and 30% over budget, and several high-cost onshore gas-to-liquids, liquefied natural gas and deep-water projects recently committed by operators.
Majors question just how Nigeria can meet its target of pumping 4 million barrels per day by 2010 if profitability is slashed and trust in the system is eroded.
Meanwhile, efforts by the Nigerian Ports Authority and Navy to tackle piracy at the country's oil hubs were in the spotlight last weekend, just as a Pentagon-sponsored seminar on energy security in the Gulf of Guinea was concluding in Abuja.
Delegates heard how the activities of ethnic militia on a looting and kidnapping spree resulted in more than 1000 deaths each year in the oilpatch.
Adding insult to injury, newly-appointed CIA chief Peter Goss declared openly to a US Senate Committee that Nigeria was in danger of becoming unstable, with companies risking the loss of concessions, refineries, flow stations, pipelines and harbour facilities in the event of a change of government or the break-up of the nation.
In response, Nigerian Navy Chief of Staff Admiral Samuel Afolayan warned that if the US did not pay up to modernise a rapid reaction fleet he would be unable to contain the gangs responsible for crude theft. The whole region could be destabilised, he cautioned.
In addition to four aged patrol boats supplied by the US Coastguard, a private sale of eight Defender-Class rapid response boats is under way. But Abuja wants more.
The US aims to increase imports from Nigeria from the current 10% to about 15% in the near future, with 25% of oil and gas imports coming from the region overall. Predictably, the African military expects Uncle Sam to foot the bill for security, and a significant US facility is already planned for Sao Tome.
"Nigeria is my biggest concern," insisted the US Defense Department's Africa boss General Carlton Fulford, who added that the recent prosecution of two admirals for involvement in illegal bunkering was "encouraging".
"But it probably goes higher than that," he said.
Against this backdrop, suitors angling for a slice of the deepwater have bemoaned the late release of guidelines for the new licensing round, including the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).
Companies are worried by the impact of radical innovations in terms and conditions, and wary of the exact role to be played by local independents since the government appears undecided as to how to limit their equity stake.
Abuja is angry that attempts to swiftly conclude a licensing exercise for the remaining five blocks in the Joint Development Zone, (JDZ)managed with neighbouring Sao Tome, have been frustrated.
Despite being governed by a clear and transparent international protocol, the high-level maneuverings of Big Oil in cahoots with powerful figures in the Nigerian oil establishment have conspired to delay awards.
ExxonMobil's last-minute pitch to win a JDZ operatorship on the back of priority rights to a junior stake, despite not having bid in the round, has had negotiators scurrying back and forth this week in a bid to resolve the gridlock.
Not that there is a shortage of real estate available in the Gulf of Guinea. With Sao Tome poised to defy the World Bank and launch its own EEZ round this year, the industry is in danger of wilting from acreage overload.
And just in case minds needed focusing, both the National Union of Petroleum & Natural Gas Workers (Nupeng) and the Petroleum & Natural Gas Senior Staff Association (Pengassan) have threatened a three-day "total" warning strike from 11 April if their long-standing grievances are not addressed.
All this is what weary locals dub semi-affectionately "the Nigeria factor" a phenomenon President Olusegun Obasanjo formally declared defunct shortly after acceding to office in 1999.
However, even with all these factors coming together, it is unlikely the punters will be deterred. Nigeria has an allure all of its own based primarily on the sheer quality of its hydrocarbon potential.
From our 10-k:
"Interpretation carried out by WesternGeco has enabled the identification of 56 prospective structures within Blocks 1 to 9 in the JDZ, of which 17 were defined as prospects and 39 as leads. WesternGeco used reservoir parameters similar to those known from nearby fields in Nigeria and Equatorial Guinea. Combined recoverable reserves potential of the 17 prospects was estimated by WesternGeco to be 14.4 billion barrels of oil. The scope of the WesternGeco report was to interpret and map seismic data, highlight prospectivity and calculate volumetrics."
It appears that ERHE is on the verge of a breakout. The chart is telling me so. So is the imminent news out of the JDA. These are about to be real exciting times. Congratulations ERHE longs. Especially those that have been in the stock a long time and have shown the ultimate virtue in the stock market which is patience.
Good Im glad to see First Atlantic doing well. That means they will be more than willing to grant us any loans we might need going forward.
Did monkey get deleted here? If so good.
monkeytrots one more thing I would like you to address. You act as if all other oil deals involving Africa countries have been great for the respective African countries involved. That clearly is not the case. Chevron, Exxon, and just about every other major oil company in Africa who has dealt in Africa have not done the people of those countries any favors.
And yet I dont see you complaining about these other companies? Why is that? The deal with Sao Tome will actually be better than the current oil contracts with other African countries. African countries have been taken advantage of by other oil companies and by politicians within their own governments for years.
"Eight years ago, ERHC officials waded out to remote São Tomé before others in the oil industry were willing to give the twin-island nation more than a passing glance."
This is why ERHC has preferential rights are greater than any other companies including Exxon. Exxon was not the one to get the ball rolling. They were brought in by ERHC. ERHC is the company that took the initial risk and thus has been awarded accordingly.
monkeytrots I have always enjoyed your posts and I believe you have a vast amount of knowledge regarding the oil business but I have to take issue with your last post. To make a claim like that you better support it with some facts. What exactly is it that you predict Exxon will do in the next few months? Despite what you think Exxon has to abide by rules and regulations just like every other company in the process.
Dont forget, ERHC is not the only company who has preferential rights in the JDZ. Exxon has rights from this deal as well. And just what has Exxon done for Sao Tome? Not nearly as much as ERHC. Dont forget that.