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DOW closed positive to 12808.63, new all time record high number; however, it is disappointing that market is selling into earning reports even with good earning reports by EBAY after breaking out of triple top formation. This is very negative sentiment.
GOOG reported good earnings even though some might dispute the quality of earning is not as strong as it was. Even though it traded positive, the habit of traders were selling off into good and bad news, such as EBAY today which is a warning signal of extremely bad sentiment.
AMD closed higher after bad earning because market expectation was extremely negative going into earning, but we need to see whether market will sell off again increasing short positions. AMD traded down over 70% from 42.40 to 12.50 area before it bounced off from pit. The expectation was so bad and ugly on this stock. The loss was due to acquisition as well. The $SOX expectation was so bad during the last few years; therefore, it is trying to bounce off from the recent trading range.
SMH closed at 36.04 above the 7mo trading range. If EBAY is the model of how "Breakout" turns out to be, it is not a good news.
SPX closed below SPX 1475 and Qs near at 45.25 resistance. Nasdaq bounced off from breakout trendline support as shown on daily chart.
Markets are at resistances as noted above and, as noted on EBAY, if it is the model of market sentiment, the breakouts will be soon faded. Therefore, we need to see better price actions which will change market sentiment.
Since the 4/20 turn date is widely watched, being cautious is in order.
Futures are flat to positive and oversea markets are trading positive at the moment.
The oversea performance probably influenced the performance today. Also, the turn date, 4/20, was dominating the market sentiment, it seems.
Even though EBAY reported good earnings, it sold off.
For AMD, market expectation was so bad going into the earning report. AMD traded down over 70% from 42.40 to 12.50 area before it bounced off from pit. The expectation was so bad and ugly on this stock. The loss was due to acquisition as well. The $SOX expectation was so bad during the last few years; therefore, it is trying to bounce off from the recent trading range.
Price often leads economy. For $SOX, sentiment and expectation was just awful... it was dead money, but it is trying to breakout now. Market sentiment and price action is mixed, but at the resistance, bearish sentiment is obvious.
It will be interesting with mixed earning reports. At least SMH was trading positive.
EBAY performance is disappointing because it broke out of triple resistance, but it is sold off with the good earning report.
Will see what happens tomorrow with GOOG good earing report. Traders were selling off all internet stocks even with good earning reports.
Hope you had a good day
SMH is breaking out, yes. Will see market reaction after AMD report.
Best wishes
Individual stocks are easy to manipulate such as EBAY.
Thank you. I focus on low beta stocks even though good setups are nice to see.
Will visit your board sometime, thanks.
Best wishes
re: __1Best__, 1best, and Qs formation looks, so far, bullish engulfing even though markets are at resistances as alerted, Qs 45.25 +/- and SPX 1475; but SPX is not as we can see doji and hammer.
As we can see DOW is continuing to make new highs which is "Breakout" along with SMH/SOX. AMD report would be another pivotal factor. LLTC certainly helped $SOX/SMH.
We are in OE week, so unexpected things could happen, but so far so good as market bounced off from the support area as noted in premarket.
Need to see the close though, but knowing 4/20 is a turn date, it is good to be nimble.
btw, 1best on this site is Impostor of my Alias, so I use __1Best__. You can check with Matt, iHub admin for the fact.
Hope that you are having a nice day,
Good luck
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=18923823
GS, yes, nice to see $SOX/SMH will be successfully breaking out since it was underperforming other major markets for a while.
Successful break out of $SOX is certainly positive for market.
I think that we need to see major upgrade in chip and information system structure. Am being careful, though.
SMH is making higher/high prints so far.
Good to see you and Best of luck
Nice that we are on the same side since nervous bears are being rude.
Like to see good cooperation on market analysis and signals.
SMH is certainly attempting to make new highs and breaking out.
Best wishes
Yes, also.... EBAY Breakout Retest after the earning report.
EBAY Breakout Retest
EBAY Breakout Retest after the earning report.
SMH/SOX are knocking at "Breakout" again.
If so, it will be nice, good move since it is breaking out of 7mo consolidation.
Also, it is starting to breakout from 7yr down trendline.
We have minor turn date on 4/20, so will see.
SMH is making higher/high as the moment.
Good luck with trading
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=18886390
Posted by: __1Best__
In reply to: None
Date:4/18/2007 10:23:58 AM
Post #of 350
$SOX/SMH BREAKOUT
It seems that $SOX/SMH want to join "Breakout" market ..
As shown on the daily chart, it is near at the breaking out zon
AMGN, Breaking out for sure, HUGE
Have a great trading
Will be reassessing market at supports. e.g. SPX 1460 +/- and Qs 44.65 +/-
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=69243
China 11.1% growth: sell-off because China's economy accelerates in Q1, more tightening seen
$SSEC Closed below 3500 which I noted as resistance.
We know the reason for sell-off for China, but futures are showing down -9 and -13.
Max Pain, For example, is in work, i.e. Qs 44.
Let's see earning reports this morning.
Index Value: 3,449.02
Trade Time: 3:00AM ET
Change: Down 163.38 (4.52%)
Prev Close: 3,612.396
Open: 3,610.024
Day's Range: 3358.93 - 3617.44
52wk Range: 1,376.96 - 3,623.87
Thursday April 19, 6:45 am ET
By Eadie Chen and Tamora Vidaillet
BEIJING (Reuters) - China's economy grew in the first quarter by 11.1 percent from a year earlier, fuelled by booming investment and exports and adding to speculation that interest rates would need to rise again soon.
The growth rate announced on Thursday was broadly in line with the 11.0 percent forecast by economists in a Reuters poll but it marked an acceleration from 10.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2006.
"This is very strong. It means more tightening. I think there will be at least two more rate hikes and the reserve ratio will have to go up to 12 percent from 10.5 percent," said Chris Leung, China economist at DBS Bank in Hong Kong.
The central bank, in an effort to rein in an investment boom, has already raised interest rates once and increased banks' required reserves three times this year. Many analysts expect further moves soon.
VIX & China $SSEC & $KOSPI
Index Value: 3,558.62
Trade Time: 11:14PM ET
Change: Down 53.77 (1.49%)
Prev Close: 3,612.396
Open: 3,610.024
Day's Range: 3492.96 - 3617.44
52wk Range: 1,376.96 - 3,622.89
Index Value: 1,512.28
Trade Time: 11:45PM ET
Change: Down 22.30 (1.45%)
Prev Close: 1,534.58
Open: 1,536.89
Day's Range: 1509.92 - 1537.43
52wk Range: 1,192.09 - 1,538.89
Breadth is turning up - $SPXA 50 & $NYSI
The negative divergence which we have seen during Nov 2006 - Feb 2007 is now worked off. Note MACD turning positive from double ZLR even though it is not as strong.
$NYSI weekly MACD is about to trade positive.
Futures are down -5.5 and -8.5 at the moment and Asian markets are showing volatility.
SMH and SOX: With LLTC strong earning report and INTC positive price actions, SMH performed very well today, trading at the top of the 7mo trading range which I alerted during the last couple of weeks. In addition, $SOX is breaking above the 7yr down trendline, showing collaborative price actions to major market break outs -- $NYA, $MID, $OEX, $RUT, $INDU, and SPX is trading higher/high than that of the Feb 2007 high of SPX 1460 to 1475.
As alerted, DOW traded to new all time high to 12828.46 above the 2/20/07 12795.93, with new closing high of 12803.84. We now need to see $SOX/SMH breaking above the 7mo trading range.
While breadth is not as strong as beginning of a bull cycle, money flow shows positive divergence on daily; therefore, for ST trading, need to be cautious. Qs 45.25 and SPX 1475 are the resistances; therefore, we need to be cautious. We have a turn date on 4/20.
Market Breakout signals higher prices in the future; however.
VG, how did you trade today? Did you cover QID and reshort?
I hope that you did well today. You have seen YHOO, dropped into pit, over killed and squashed. Let's see whether it will rise soon. It is like ritual for YHOO after earning reports.
Earning report period is dangerous for sure.
As for other message, it is as expected even though it sounds crazy, I know exactly what he is saying because I know exactly what he is talking about.
Good luck
QQQQ & SSO Long 2x
DOW & MID Cap LONG 2x
SP500 & Russell 200 Long
QQQQ & SP500 Short 1x
DOW & Mid Cap Short 1x
QQQQ & SP500 Short 2x
DOW & Mid Cap Short 2x
SP500 & Russell2000 Short
JT, did you see what WM did after you mentioned high Put activities? You were bullish or bearish... think that you said caveat emptor.
Anyhow, it was flying into earning report.
Trade safe and Good luck
Ebay reported good earnings and guided higher.
btw, YHOO is overkilled and over squashed.
LLTC is leading and I think that we will be in a chip/info upgrade cycle with more demand. I am hearing that network is down or slow all the time. The reason is more people is online.
For example, stockcharts.com was down... other sites notifying slow site, etc.
AMAT is trading at resistance, and AMD is finally trading up with the new product news with DELL.
Also, note JT post on WM on put/call since then it was trading up.
Good luck
~~
Posted by: __1Best__
In reply to: None
Date:4/18/2007 10:42:19 AM
Post #of 338
SMH: Info System UPGRADE due as we hear many are going online to communicate. Blackberry problem is just one example that our computer system and network need to be upgraded to meet the demand and speed since we are experiencing higher demand, faster speed with faster chips, as well as greater functionality of software requiring better hardware functionality.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=18724382
Posted by: Jamestown
In reply to: None
Date:4/12/2007 6:51:20 PM
Post #of 338
Just some noise that is interesting. WM (Washington Mutual) has 33,383 puts dated for July. It also has 4,290 calls dated for the same month and same strike price of 40. Not a recommendation at all so buyers beware. And by the way they report next week. During Op Ex nonetheless. Trade Safe.
WB, SMH & $SOX breaking out...
LLTC is helping $SOX, MXIM, NSM, AMD, ALTR...are UP.
$SOX & corr DOW is approaching higher/high HOD heading to 12795.93 on 2/20.
$SOX/SMH positive price action is certainly helping and, breaking above the trading range, will confirm the recent market breakout.
$SOX is trading above 7yr down Trendline as shown on monthly Long term chart.
LLTC 36.10 3.98 12.39%
MXIM(E) 31.35 2.25 7.73%
NSM 25.62 1.52 6.31%
AMD 14.06 0.59 4.38%
ALTR 20.94 0.80 3.97%
XLNX 27.22 0.93 3.54%
TXN 32.10 0.79 2.52%
BRCM 33.20 0.80 2.47%
MU 11.18 0.23 2.10%
TER 16.67 0.32 1.96%
AMAT 19.72 0.36 1.86%
MRVL(E) 17.34 0.28 1.64%
INTC 21.31 0.33 1.57%
NVLS 32.52 0.43 1.33%
KLAC 55.06 0.50 0.92%
IFX 15.76 0.00 -0.00%
$SOX & corr DOW is approaching higher/high HOD heading to 12795.93 on 2/20.
$SOX/SMH positive price action is certainly helping and, breaking above the trading range, will confirm the recent market breakout.
$SOX is trading above 7yr down Trendline as shown on monthly Long term chart.
VG, What did you do, Cover shorts or adding shorts?
LLTC is leading.
LLTC 36.10 3.98 12.39%
MXIM(E) 31.35 2.25 7.73%
NSM 25.62 1.52 6.31%
AMD 14.06 0.59 4.38%
ALTR 20.94 0.80 3.97%
XLNX 27.22 0.93 3.54%
TXN 32.10 0.79 2.52%
BRCM 33.20 0.80 2.47%
MU 11.18 0.23 2.10%
TER 16.67 0.32 1.96%
AMAT 19.72 0.36 1.86%
MRVL(E) 17.34 0.28 1.64%
INTC 21.31 0.33 1.57%
NVLS 32.52 0.43 1.33%
KLAC 55.06 0.50 0.92%
IFX 15.76 0.00 -0.00%
DOW is approaching higher/high HOD heading to 12795.93 on 9/20.
$SOX/SMH positive price action is certainly helping and, breaking above the trading range, will confirm the recent market breakout.
Posted by: __1Best__
In reply to: None
Date:4/17/2007 10:58:12 AM
Post #of 336
DOW pushing for new high above 12795.93 on 2/20 -- ahead of IBM & INTC earning report.
High Volume support: Qs 44.83, for example, is a breakout support of Nov-Dec 2006 high at where a support came in with high volume.
45.06 is the resistance as we can see on 60m.
With SMH positive action, market is in positive momentum.
SMH: Info System UPGRADE due as we hear many are going online to communicate. Blackberry problem is just one example that our computer system and network need to be upgraded to meet the demand and speed since we are experiencing higher demand, faster speed with faster chips, as well as greater functionality of software requiring better hardware functionality.
Chip/Technology upgrade
$SOX/SMH BREAKOUT
It seems that $SOX/SMH want to join "Breakout" market ..
As shown on the daily chart, it is near at the breaking out zone!
Can Decker deliver a good news to YHOO and analysts were too optimistic?
SMH is doing well which is a good news, just need YHOO to get itself up.
Thanks for ahimsa,
We all certainly need to practice ahimsa to make our world better.
http://www.dlshq.org/teachings/ahimsa.htm
The resistance SPX 1475 and Qs closing with hammer were a clue for a pull back. In addition, market was intraday OB, and a pull back is a good thing at this juncture.
Since markets are breaking out mode, we need to be careful with shorts.
A quicky tonight...
Good trades
VG, good comments on SIRI/XMSR with possible contract with Imus, but I am not sure whether it will be successful, but a good speculation on the possibility. Technically, it finished with doji at the support so, as you noted, it could be a reversal signal with positive general market direction. Both are trading at pivotal level.
Obviously, futures are down now after YHOO disaster. INTC is helping market though.
Good move on QID as I also noted that SPX trading at SPX 1475 resistance.
Qs closing at doji/hammer was a clue.
Good trades
INTC is trading up.
XMSR & SIRI moving in sync... could be excellent reversals.
Forming hammer at major supports with positive divergence.
Best of luck
Qs formation:: going into close forming a hammer or doji at the moment as DOW is going to making new high above 2/20 HOD 12795.93... closing basis at 12786.64
Note: Qs trading above breakout as shown on 60m.
~~~
Posted by: __1Best__
In reply to: None
Date:4/17/2007 10:58:12 AM
Post #of 323
DOW pushing for new high above 12795.93 on 2/20 -- ahead of IBM & INTC earning report.
SPX to near 1475 +/- TL R.
Yes, also INTC report which will impact $SOX 7yr TL - 7mo TR
Good luck with your trades
~~~~~~
addendum: re $SOX - SMH 7yr down TL and 7 mo Trading range
Note on the 8yr cycle on $SOX/SMH which is consistent with my comment on major market "8yr cycle" low in Oct 2002, and the low in Jun-Jul 2006 bottom.
Market is projecting chip land to trade up toward latter part of the year, going into YOE.
~~~~~~~~~
Commented on $SOX - SMH 7yr down TL and 7 mo Trading range
After the big gain making a huge up-wave in 1999-2000, it is making 7yr consolidation period.
Since the Jul 2006 bottom call, it traded up about 3 months, then it is consolidating for 4 months.
Good trades
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_ms...age_id=18779684
Hi WB, SPX 1475 +/- resistance, while DOW is pushing for new high. IBM/INTC reports will be catalysts for markets.
I hope YHOO will do well after earning report!!!
It is trading to 32 resistance ahead of the report.
HAVE A GREAT TRADING DAY, THANKS
Posted by: __1Best__
In reply to: None
Date:4/17/2007 10:58:12 AM
Post #of 323
DOW pushing for new high above 12795.93 on 2/20 -- ahead of IBM & INTC earning report.
SPX to near 1475 +/- TL R.
IBM also reports in AH, I think. It is trading up before earning.
With JNJ and COKE good report, DOW is pushing.
CSCO is trading erratic price pattern lately. I like its wireless modem products. It shows neg D on vst.
DOW pushing for new high above 12795.93 on 2/20 -- ahead of IBM & INTC earning report.
SPX to near 1475 +/- TL R.
IBM also reports in AH, I think. It is trading up before earning.
With JNJ and COKE good report, DOW is pushing.
CSCO is trading erratic price pattern lately. I like its wireless modem products. It shows neg D on vst.
YHOO also reports after bell.
It is trading up before the earning with a news.
Qs staying above the intraday breakout above the TL shown on 60m while it is showing slightly neg D on 60.
$USD trading below the support again... trading lower at the moment (ATM).
Good trades
Yahoo! and Newspaper Consortium Expand Strategic PartnershipCombines Strength of Newspapers' Unique Local Content and Relationships with Yahoo!'s National Reach and Advanced Technology to Create A Cutting-Edge Advertising Network for the Newspaper Industry Yahoo! to be Newspapers' Exclusive Paid Search Partner and Bring High-Quality Local Newspaper Content to its 150 MM Monthly U.S. Visitors(a)
SUNNYVALE, Calif., Apr 16, 2007 (BUSINESS WIRE) --
Yahoo! Inc. (Nasdaq:YHOO) and a group of 12 leading U.S. newspaper companies today announced a definitive agreement that expands a growing partnership combining the newspapers' unmatched local news and advertising reach with the leading technologies and audience of Yahoo!, the leading global Internet brand and one of the most trafficked Internet destinations worldwide.
~~~
Qs max pain is still at 44, but it is trading above 45 today. While MP does not work for every OE, it is a consideration.
Data from cboe as of Tue Apr 17 09:45:29 2007 ET, delayed quotes.
qqqq - May07
Expires: May , 2007
32.000 736216200
33.000 668179500
34.000 601155300
35.000 535094500
36.000 469884000
37.000 405319000
38.000 341715400
39.000 282802500
40.000 227041700
41.000 175346600
42.000 129269300
43.000 100508300
44.000 97581800 -Maximum-Pain Theory Value
45.000 118149000
46.000 155397800
47.000 200518900
48.000 248506200
49.000 296981300
50.000 346323800
51.000 395703700
52.000 445087500
53.000 494524800
54.000 543962200
Intraday market, %% list, and China $SSEC:
Intraday is overbought with slightly negative divergences; therefore, I am anticipating a pull back; however, market momentum is up targeting SPX 1490 +/- R.
INTC and YHOO earnings during AH.
China $SSEC traded to another all time high to 3611.87 with HOD of 3622.89 after a volatile session.
Index Value: 3,611.87
Trade Time: 3:00AM ET
Change: Up 15.43 (0.43%)
Prev Close: 3,596.441
Open: 3,611.63
Day's Range: 3510.50 - 3622.89
ACTIVE STOCKS
VG Vonage Holdings Corp 3.72 0.43 13.07%
TELK Telik Inc 6.47 0.58 9.85%
BCE BCE Inc 34.80 2.73 8.51%
BRKR Bruker Biosciences 12.10 0.94 8.42%
NGEN Nanogen Inc 2.00 0.15 8.11%
XOMA XOMA Ltd 3.50 0.26 8.02%
MGAM Multimedia Games 12.73 0.93 7.88%
ONT On2 Technologies 2.69 0.19 7.60%
EWBC East West Bancorp 38.48 2.62 7.31%
JOSB Jos.A. Bank Clothiers 36.00 2.37 7.05%
CEGE Cell Genesys 5.45 0.35 6.86%
BDK Black & Decker Corp 89.20 5.48 6.55%
AFR American Financial Realty Tr 11.54 0.69 6.36%
URZ Uranerz Energy Corporation 7.95 0.45 6.00%
CLWR Clearwire Corp A 19.70 1.09 5.86%
GTXI GTx Inc 23.87 1.28 5.67%
XING Qiao Xing Universal Tel 18.00 0.94 5.51%
GNVC Genvec Inc 4.40 0.22 5.26%
ADTN Adtran Inc 26.25 1.26 5.04%
DIVX DivX Inc 23.75 1.11 4.90%
FALC Falconstor Software 12.23 0.57 4.89%
MTOX Medtox Scientific Inc 21.48 0.98 4.78%
IOTN Ionatron Inc 5.80 0.25 4.50%
JEF Jefferies Group 31.50 1.35 4.48%
MAXY Maxygen Inc 11.90 0.50 4.39%
~~~
UFPI Univl Forest Products 46.37 -6.25 -11.88%
FIC Fair Isaac 36.70 -3.85 -9.49%
IMMR Immersion Corp 9.50 -0.92 -8.83%
KRY Crystallex International Corp 3.91 -0.26 -6.24%
KFRC Kforce Inc 13.52 -0.86 -5.98%
AMTD TD Ameritrade Holding Corp 15.98 -0.89 -5.28%
TPX Tempur-Pedic Intl 26.16 -1.34 -4.87%
PGLA Progen Industries Ord 6.92 -0.34 -4.68%
JASO JA Solar Holdings Co Ltd 26.90 -1.30 -4.61%
JSDA Jones Soda 30.22 -1.32 -4.19%
TFSM 24/7 Real Media 9.10 -0.39 -4.11%
BMRN Biomarin Pharmaceutical 17.10 -0.73 -4.09%
AVR Aventine Renewable Energy Hldg 19.54 -0.69 -3.41%
RNVS Renovis Inc 4.15 -0.13 -3.04%
CHB Champion Enterprises 10.00 -0.30 -2.91%
SHI Sinopec Shanghai Petrochem ADS 57.32 -1.53 -2.59%
SOLF Solarfun Power Holdings Co Ltd 17.24 -0.44 -2.49%
BAP Credicorp Ltd 50.73 -1.29 -2.48%
GERN Geron Corp 7.20 -0.18 -2.44%
GNSS Genesis Microchip 9.38 -0.23 -2.39%
TTWO Take-Two Interactive Software 20.31 -0.49 -2.36%
CCU Clear Channel Communications 35.50 -0.85 -2.34%
ASTI Ascent Solar Technologies Inc 10.50 -0.24 -2.23%
ENDP Endo Pharmaceuticals Hlds 30.40 -0.65 -2.09%
FRE.PW Freddie Mac 5.66% Non Cum Pfd 24.95 -0.50 -1.96%
After CPI report, futures are trading higher.
Qs trading above yesterday HOD, 45.15, to 45.20 heading to the "RST - megaphone" top trendline resistance, which is above the Feb 2007 high, as shown on the daily chart.
$USD is continuing to trade lower after breaking 82, the support which is now a resistance as we can see during the last two trading days.
JNJ trading at 64.50 +1.48 up 2.35% in premarket.
NEW YORK, April 17 (Reuters) - Johnson & Johnson (JNJ,Trade) on Tuesday reported first-quarter earnings well above forecasts on higher-than-expected sales of its array of drugs and health-care products, lifting shares almost 2 percent in pre-market trading.
Excluding special items, J&J said it earned $1.16 per share. Analysts on average expected $1.04 per share, according to Reuters Estimates.
The diversified health-care company said it earned $2.6 billion, or 88 cents per share, on a net basis, compared with $3.3 billion, or $1.10 per share, in the year-earlier period. The net results included a $807 million charge related to the recent acquisition of Conor Medsystems.
Company sales rose 15.7 percent to $15 billion, about $500 million above Wall Street forecasts, helped by favorable foreign exchange factors and J&J's acquisition in December of Pfizer Inc's (PFE,Trade) line of consumer products.
J&J, a component of the Dow Jones industrial average, was up 1.9 percent to $64.20 in electronic trading. (Additional reporting by Lewis Krauskopf)
VG, Thanks for sharing your stock-picking expertise and a portion of your private setup. I will send you an email for posting charts.
I know when we are in rush and have many things to do, we can overlook minor details. Furthermore, we can allocate only a portion of our effort to a list of descending priority of our things-to-do.
If you will, will be glad to hear your comment on your post. Of course if you are willing to share your private settings with others; and I do understand if you'd rather not to since our private trading setup could and often is valuable. I venture to say, what I see on your post is valuable.
Have a great trading day.
You can go to test board and practice.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=1277
Also, please send me an email to Trend_Signal@yahoo.com to discuss privately as suggested by other as well.