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TXN has good earning track record and it seems that good growth in 2008 is not priced in to the market, but when it breaks above the 35 resistance, it will confirm the anticipation.
Internet speed: VG, yes, I also pointed out the need for the internet speed and for infomation system upgrade. It sounds like 2000 about internet, but it is real this time since we are connected through internet, globally; and the internet companies have real earnings, not like during 1999-2000.
Heard that there will be satellite wave which will provide internet connection. Other countries use wireless internet modems while, for example, comcast is using hardware modem but they are charge high rate though, $50+ for internet. Not sure when we will see better high speed and wireless internet connections.
JT & VG --- very good inputs and info
~~~
TXN
Quarterly Earnings Surprises Estimate Actual Surprise(%)
Quarter Ending 12/2006 0.38 0.40 5.26%
Quarter Ending 09/2006 0.45 0.45 0.00%
Quarter Ending 06/2006 0.46 0.47 2.17%
Quarter Ending 03/2006 0.33 0.33 0.00%
Quarter Ending 12/2005 0.41 0.43 4.88%
Earnings Estimates # of Ests. Mean Est. High Est. Low Est. EPS Growth
Quarter Ending 03/2007 31 0.31 0.32 0.30 -5.38%
Quarter Ending 06/2007 29 0.37 0.41 0.33 -21.72%
Year Ending 12/2007 33 1.57 1.82 1.39 -4.59%
Year Ending 12/2008 28 1.89 2.18 1.53 19.81%
VG & JT: $BTK & $DRG are certainly breaking out along with MRK which sparked the breakout.
VG:
While MRK was off my radar, you caught the big move. Congrat
JT:
Thanks for the stat of Market Reaction to the TXN reports. Were the market actions positive after the earning reports or negative?
SMH - $SOX 7yr Resistance & 7mo Trading range
We have TXN report in AH. SMH initially broke above the 7mo trading range. We have hammer formation suggesting a top; however, with good market sentiment to the TXN earning report, we may see a follow-through the breakout.
TXN is trading at strong quantile top formation as we can see that it attempt to breakout in Sept 2006, but failed. TXN trading above 35 will confirm the $SOX - SMH breakout.
Thanks, WB. $SSEC is roaring to 3710.89 after the breakout from 3050 which is 15yr resistance.
We have TXN report after AH. I noted that $SOX and SMH are trading at 7yr resistance and 7mo trading range. We now have initial breakout; therefore, with the current bullish sentiment, unless TXN badly disappoints, it seems that the bullish sentiment will continue.
Again thanks for the articles, I will post my thoughts later.
Have a great trading day
~~~
$SSEC is making new high to 3710.89 while Futures are flat in premarket. $KOSPI also traded to new high to 1544.35 continuing to trade up after the breakout.
We have TXN earning report in AH which will confirm or fail the SMH breakout. Knowing the bullish sentiment of market, the report has to be disappointing to stop the breakout.
$SSEC is making new high to 3710.89 while Futures are flat in premarket. $KOSPI also traded to new high to 1544.35 continuing to trade up after the breakout from 15yr resistance at 3050.
We have TXN earning report in AH which will confirm or fail the SMH breakout. Knowing the bullish sentiment of market, the report has to be disappointing to stop the breakout.
WB, glad to hear that you enjoy the day.
!!! This is important that I would like to know or to find an article stating that Chinese Gov is buying U.S. Equity instead of buying Treasuries.
Have you heard the rumor and ANYONE read an article?
If you find an article, please let me know.
Gold - GLD are making new highs while Oil - USO are trading down.
10yr and 30yr are in consolidation mode as it is forming sym triangle.
If you find an article to support rumors saying that Chinese Gov is buying US equity, please let me know.
Futures are positive. As for markets, you would remember that I called "Breakout Retest" reversal during March double bottom - 3/5 & 3/14. The formation is bullish. We now see the breakouts.
As for vst supports for Qs, 45 and 44.60 +/- since intraday is showing negative D. Even though Qs has not broken above 45.55 +/- as the same as other major markets, so will see.
Have a good night.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=19009673
his is not co-incidence since I noted before as Mar2007 double bottom as "Fractal" of Jun-Jul 2006 bottom with "Breakout Retest" formation which is a bullish formation. As noted before, I am not as bullish as when I called Jun-Jul 2006 because I see price actions pushing to new highs not as strong as breadth as Jun-Jul2006 bottom.
Having said that we now have China $SSEC breaking out, $NYA breakout leading other major markets: Breakouts on most of major markets including $CAC, $DAX, and $FTSE even though those are not making all time highs as the same as SPX.
Those who read my comments on the CS board would know that I commented on the China $SSEC market actions since early March 2007 at the same time when US market was forming double bottom. I warned bearish views that market will retrace, at least, the Feb 2007 top based on the Breakout retest of DOW 12000, for example.
Going back to ST/IT view to determine whether we have IT top: no, I do not believe so, as I again state that we will see SPX 1550 +/- retest in 2007.
If I were able to focus on the market analysis, I would like to elaborate on a couple of points on LT view which I noticed a couple of extreme bullish view as I just visited TT, but since it has to do with longer timeframe, I can comment on it later.
As for ST top going into May, i.e. sell in May and go away, I need to reassess market along the way since I do focus on accuracy. But, I don't believe that we made ST top. After analyzing market breadth, sentiment and other, I do not find extreme readings, except those which you and JT pointed out such as common TA readings, e.g. price actions out of BB, hammer and doji actions, etc.; suggesting VST pull back.
Glad to hear that you made out good. I was referring to your post on P/C ratio as shown below. What has happened?
Anyway, good that you did well.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=18724382
Posted by: Jamestown
In reply to: None
Date:4/12/2007 6:51:20 PM
Post #of 458
Just some noise that is interesting. WM (Washington Mutual) has 33,383 puts dated for July. It also has 4,290 calls dated for the same month and same strike price of 40. Not a recommendation at all so buyers beware. And by the way they report next week. During Op Ex nonetheless. Trade Safe.
Market sentiment is not extreme as we can see it on the $BP and P/C ratio even though markets are breaking out. This could be bullish signal since market is not showing extreme complacency.
The charts on the links which you provided show that the market has the room to run as the breakout targets are not reached. Having said that we need to be aware of the breakout failure along the way which will like be a ST pull back in LT timeframe.
Again, I will revisit the LT timeframe later.
Thanks for the links which are showing your D.D. and your expertise on studying market. We need to focus on what we are good at and need to be better at it since we can easily be distracted on many things as market is a big, big universe with many stocks, analyses, and signals.
Best wishes
VG, JT is good with focusing on certain things such as SMH. If you review his post on WM, the P/C call ratio was not an indication of the price action out come.
Since I wasn't checking on WM, I am not sure exactly what was the implication, but based on the JT's post, WM price action was a contrary to P/C activity.
Since I don't focus on individual stock P/C activities, it is good thing that JT mentions it. Caveat: again, maybe you can backsolve what has happened on WM and JT can solve it as well with hindsight.
It is good that you provide the link when you post your comment.
http://www.cboe.com/DelayedQuote/QuoteTable.aspx?TICKER=smh&ALL=2
SMH (SEMICONDUCTOR HOLDING CO RCPTS) 36.23 +0.21
Apr 22, 2007 @ 17:12 ET
Bid 36.13 Ask 36.19 Size 5x18 Vol 13454500
Calls Last Sale Net Bid Ask Vol Open Int Puts Last Sale Net Bid Ask Vol Open Int
07 Apr 32.50 (SMH DZ-E) 3.65 +0.72 3.55 3.70 68 4367 07 Apr 32.50 (SMH PZ-E) 0.04 0.0 0.0 0.02 0 46633
07 Apr 35.00 (SMH DG-E) 1.14 +0.08 1.10 1.19 1327 46627 07 Apr 35.00 (SMH PG-E) 0.09 0.0 0.0 0.02 0 33110
07 Apr 37.50 (SMH DU-E) 0.01 0.0 0.0 0.02 0 16137 07 Apr 37.50 (SMH PU-E) 1.39 0.0 1.31 1.41 0 349
07 Apr 40.00 (SMH DH-E) 0.01 0.0 0.0 0.02 0 611 07 Apr 40.00 (SMH PH-E) 0.0 0.0 3.80 3.95 0 0
07 May 32.50 (SMH EZ-E) 3.58 -0.12 3.70 3.85 52 12113 07 May 32.50 (SMH QZ-E) 0.08 0.0 0.04 0.09 400 53668
07 May 35.00 (SMH EG-E) 1.58 -0.07 1.57 1.63 474 71467 07 May 35.00 (SMH QG-E) 0.38 -0.06 0.38 0.41 469 39692
07 May 37.50 (SMH EU-E) 0.31 -0.02 0.30 0.33 801 54499 07 May 37.50 (SMH QU-E) 1.57 -0.13 1.59 1.65 410 4280
07 May 40.00 (SMH EH-E) 0.05 +0.01 0.01 0.04 3 23201 07 May 40.00 (SMH QH-E) 3.90 -1.70 3.80 3.90 10 97
Yes, I know him since I was also on the stockcharts.com public list during Oct-Nov 2005 when I called Oct 2005 bottom. At that time, he was posting that he found a perfect indicator using of $NASI but what he didn't post was that it had whipsaws prior to his time period when he posted his charts. I still have emails from the stochcharts readers whom they sent me emails.
Anyway, don't need to waste my time since I have my system even though I constantly study markets.
Remember to focus on the method with which you are successful, otherwise, you will be confused with many noises adding to working system. As it is, we don't have enough time to focus on what is working. Especially market is like a big ocean, if you don't focus on, you will be easily losing the sight of your goal. In this, JT is excellent as he focuses on his purpose.
As one gains market experience, one would know his strength and weakness. Diverting valuable time and effort is just a waste.
If it helps you, it is good.
$USD is trading below the 82 support as alerted, and now it is trading under the resistance 82. Anyone thinks that it will trade below 79 which was the mid 1992 low?
Also, VG, have you come across an article that Chinese gov buying US equities? http://blog.mises.org/archives/006225.asp
http://www.chicagofed.org/consumer_information/strong_dollar_weak_dollar.cfm
$XAU trading at the top resistance.
10y trading at doww TL resistance.
$TRAN confirming $INDU price action
Hi WB, Interesting market actions with making new highs at resistances which noted before, SPX 1485 +/- and Qs 45.55 +/- shown on daily charts. My market thoughts posted on the link.
Best wishes & Enjoy the day as we have nice weather.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=19009673
Hi WB, Interesting market actions with making new highs at resistances which noted before, SPX 1485 +/- and Qs 45.55 +/- shown on daily charts. My market thoughts posted on the link.
Best wishes & Enjoy the day as we have nice weather.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=19009673
VG, good comments. I would like to elaborate on your point which I reposted below:
Very odd to me(march07 low correlation), I can not really see how this is simply coincidence but I certainly have no clue exactly what may be happening.
This is not co-incidence since I noted before as Mar2007 double bottom as "Fractal" of Jun-Jul 2006 bottom with "Breakout Retest" formation which is a bullish formation. As noted before, I am not as bullish as when I called Jun-Jul 2006 because I see price actions pushing to new highs not as strong as breadth as Jun-Jul2006 bottom.
Having said that we now have China $SSEC breaking out, $NYA breakout leading other major markets: Breakouts on most of major markets including $CAC, $DAX, and $FTSE even though those are not making all time highs as the same as SPX.
Those who read my comments on the CS board would know that I commented on the China $SSEC market actions since early March 2007 at the same time when US market was forming double bottom. I warned bearish views that market will retrace, at least, the Feb 2007 top based on the Breakout retest of DOW 12000, for example.
Going back to ST/IT view to determine whether we have IT top: no, I do not believe so, as I again state that we will see SPX 1550 +/- retest in 2007.
If I were able to focus on the market analysis, I would like to elaborate on a couple of points on LT view which I noticed a couple of extreme bullish view as I just visited TT, but since it has to do with longer timeframe, I can comment on it later.
As for ST top going into May, i.e. sell in May and go away, I need to reassess market along the way since I do focus on accuracy. But, I don't believe that we made ST top. After analyzing market breadth, sentiment and other, I do not find extreme readings, except those which you and JT pointed out such as common TA readings, e.g. price actions out of BB, hammer and doji actions, etc.; suggesting VST pull back.
Certainly, market is at interesting juncture and wish I can focus on the market.
Have a good day and thanks for your thoughts on the market.
Your comment which I repost is good points. As I made market top/bottom calls, it is more difficult to pinpoint tops even though a couple of times when those were right on the targets.
You also mentioned that everyone is looking at the same indicators, for example, the charts which I post, I can say that I do not display all my market analyses and customized indicators, nor all my thoughts since we all know that indicators or market analyses which are fully exposed will be used by many others. As a result, those will likely invalidated. Since I was participating on the public discussion boards, I posted my market calls with my market analyses to support the calls. I now see that those methods and approaches are followed by many because those were successful analyses.
That is what you are stating when many are looking at the same thing, the majority will likely be on the wrong side. I do keep in mind that the most widely used indicators and trading methods are often being faded as noted before, but, during a trend, many will be on the same side.
Interesting thing is, though, during the trend, many are still arguing that the trend is not the trend... so, we are talking about "capitulation" of bulls or bears to an extent which is creating reversal.
As for money management, for you, as for all traders and investors, I understand that you would be EXTRA careful as you ought to since you would be extra risk-adverse.
Good comments and enjoy
PS My thoughts may not be as organized as I would like to since I am not fully focusing on the market at the moment.
~~~
JT: Your comment: money shorting a market unless
1) a confirmed downward trend is in place
2) a unfavorable time of the month/day/year is upon us or
3) certain extremes have been reached as seen by the previous graphs.
Any combinations of the above will be a signal to me to short. But it is still not certain but neither is going long. Setups do not always work out the way ones expects. And yes, we are up against some heavy resistance at these levels but it does not mean we can not break above them. So money management becomes very important at this stage.
Also, I think that we need to be aware of global warming, even though we have debate about the cause and its existence, and air quality as many will be consuming natural resources such as gas through driving more cars in emerging countries like China. We are consuming various natural resources even though we can plant more of basic needs such as grains, some natural resources can't be replaced since it is limited; but also, if we have global warming, we will create unstable eco system such as severe weather patterns, threatening our basic fundamental needs -- water, food, and other.
Oil is bouncing off from the Mar2007 breakout support around 64 and USO closing at 50 support. Showing negative divergences on the daily charts.
I know you are very good with TL.
As noted before, I don't use stockcharts for trading, but for market analysis to post.
Thanks for your comments and have a great day.
VG, Put/call ratio is oversold?
I am wondering what you are referring to.
Good comments on other...
The put call ratio is way oversold and seems to point to a retrace int he market as well.
Equity Index Total Put / Call
Time Calls Puts Total Calls Puts Total Calls Puts Total Ratio
9:00 AM 268008 124634 392642 106357 207567 313924 374365 332201 706566 0.89
9:30 AM 440082 229087 669169 165882 329663 495545 605964 558750 1164714 0.92
10:00 AM 637181 302965 940146 253056 412341 665397 890237 715306 1605543 0.80
10:30 AM 760861 366756 1127617 306289 478471 784760 1067150 845227 1912377 0.79
11:00 AM 855870 419563 1275433 352179 560501 912680 1208049 980064 2188113 0.81
11:30 AM 945958 465207 1411165 376586 601835 978421 1322544 1067042 2389586 0.81
12:00 PM 1033772 507078 1540850 483583 642349 1125932 1517365 1149427 2666792 0.76
12:30 PM 1111564 566273 1677837 508205 682317 1190522 1619769 1248590 2868359 0.77
1:00 PM 1196154 608018 1804172 531588 715214 1246802 1727742 1323232 3050974 0.77
1:30 PM 1276312 652981 1929293 582119 787602 1369721 1858431 1440653 3299084 0.78
2:00 PM 1393931 699191 2093122 616800 842218 1459018 2010731 1541479 3552210 0.77
2:30 PM 1538203 762821 2301024 646454 897852 1544306 2184657 1660743 3845400 0.76
3:00 PM 1758404 875564 2633968 771316 1013267 1784583 2529720 1888901 4418621 0.75
Half Hourly Volume Report for Selected Indices For 4/20/2007
DOW Industrials S&P 100 S&P 500
Time Calls Puts Total Calls Puts Total Calls Puts Total
9:00 AM 2919 1555 4474 8375 12666 21041 13892 36473 50365
9:30 AM 4642 2234 6876 14095 19561 33656 32754 96660 129414
10:00 AM 7467 3266 10733 19054 29948 49002 45916 156406 202322
10:30 AM 7893 3350 11243 20827 33666 54493 67439 166936 234375
11:00 AM 17424 3781 21205 27959 41018 68977 79255 208456 287711
11:30 AM 17676 4670 22346 32241 45114 77355 87204 213097 300301
12:00 PM 18301 4948 23249 34239 46933 81172 102104 229681 331785
12:30 PM 19341 5559 24900 35366 47643 83009 106318 238008 344326
1:00 PM 19758 6164 25922 37103 49138 86241 113894 244017 357911
1:30 PM 20994 6527 27521 37162 51133 88295 141443 256308 397751
2:00 PM 21004 6387 27391 41305 53961 95266 156205 277465 433670
2:30 PM 21232 9527 30759 44017 57413 101430 162015 308691 470706
3:00 PM 22257 11038 33295 47211 60299 107510 189993 371421 561414
http://www.cboe.com/data/IntraDayVol.aspx
Mentioned the Fed M3 and econ data as well as other points which you made, so we know it, and for your comment on Tax, I see your point, of course.
$CRB is trading below the TL support.
$BPINDU is reflecting stronger internal action even though it is showing negative divergence. Other $BP are weaker. It is time-consuming to change the link code to post in iHub since it is using different code to post charts than other sites.
Still traveling and relocating for the next couple of weeks.
Enjoy the day
JT, caution is warranted since markets are at the resistances which I posted on previous posts - market resistances and fading earning news and breakouts, e.g. GE, EBAY... possible GOOG.
Still reassessing market actions.
Have a nice weekend... ALL
DOW 30 stocks
Thanks VG, GE is consolidating with coiling formation with anticipating intraday bounce with positive D.
CAVEAT EMPTOR:
The problem with market right now is that market was selling into earning reports as we can again see on GE with gap-up based on the earning report on Apr 13. Since then, the good news is being faded. Just same as other markets EBAY and we will see on GOOG market action. Based on the two earning report price actions, i.e. GE and EBAY, GOOG will likely be faded the gap up. Just to keep this in mind -- a warning signal. Until proven otherwise, this is the case on many stocks. Trading during the earning season is especially difficult and dangerous.
btw, as noted, GOOG HOD was 491 resistance, but closed at the gap support.
I just posted DOW 30 stocks. Several stocks show "runaway" Gaps.
For post charts, I will send you another email. You do know that you have 15 mins after posting to review and to modify your posts. Having this feature is useful since we can make a mistake when we are in hurry or when our attention is diverted, especially during the trading hours since our attention is distributed to digest different information.
Thanks and have a nice weekend.
GS and JT, thanks and we do have EOM positive bias.
After the strong OE price performance, I expect a pull back based on vst intraday price actions as you noted Mon-Tues profit taking since we have “Monday” OE action reversal.
Qs and SPX are at the resistances, Qs 45.55 +/-, SPX 1485, and Nasdaq 2530 +/- as shown on the charts.
Have a nice weekend as well.
Yes, market has gaps all over the places showing volatility, as JT repeatedly mentioned the gaps as well. As noted before, market participants are getting better with TA, so market is trying to out-do most of us.
As for comments on fundamental factors, as I also noted the similar issues, which you pointed out, in the past, I am wondering what good it would be if market pulls back at this point. As noted before, I think that the Fed and Gov have bigger purposes which we do not know. We know the undesirable effects which you pointed out, but the desirable effects are the emerging countries are progressively evolving to democratic and capitalistic countries. Whether the form of gov is better than other types, individuals can decide their preferences if they can, at least, we can express what types of gov we prefer. Since it is not the focuses of our purpose, I will stop elaborating further.
Briefly, however, we can notice that there are new global economic groups, i.e. Euro group and Asian group. The rising China is plainly noticeable and remarkable as we see the China GDP is over 10% growth. We know the debate about the risk of very strong economic growth, etc., but the bottomline is that it is dynamic global economy which we must deal with.
It seems that it is ideal for us to be very protective like going back to the strongest economy growth period -- stop imports, stop exporting our jobs, stop ... etc., but it is not happening. The change in global dynamic is unstoppable at this point since it is constantly evolving like Germany wall and Russia form of gov. I am not expert in global economy or historian, but based on my educated thinking, this is what is happening. We must deal with it and can't be completely isolated from the rest of the world by extreme protectionism even though good control of free trade to balance out trade is necessary to prevent us going into economic disaster.
I understand the points which you are making since I made the very similar points. As a simple example, rich getting richer. Yes true, but what other alternative policies do we have. You also listed the problems, but what are the solutions.
For equity market at this point, making LT Top is the solution to the problems which we listed? It will only cause, in a sever cases, more job loss and recession if the current condition is not managed well. Beside China is growing so global market sentiment is bullish.
We will not be pre-911 anytime soon or ever. We will not be pre-Euro and pre-Asian growth.
Not sure, what are the best solutions are. Do you have very good solutions?
This post became a bit longer than I planned. I am traveling and relocating and will be able to spend more time in latter part of May.
Glad that you managed your positions well.
Have a nice weekend
~~~
Market has shown strong momentum during the last week as commented that market was poised to “Breakout Retest” scenario and technically the formation suggests, at least, retesting the recent high and, normally, making new highs. Market usually goes overboard because of momentum of crowd psychology effect even though we are seeing that market is performing technically sound performance based on the “Breakout Retest” scenario. As I noted during the “double bottom” alert, market is alerting “breaking out” even though I am not as confident to affirm the market momentum to targeted areas with the successful breakout. But, as noted during the Jun-Jul 2006 bottom call, I am anticipating that we will be testing all time high of SPX 1550 +/- during this year.
For estimating the exact time of market achieving its target of SPX 1550, I need to reassess market. Meantime, the current market momentum is heading to the target of SPX 1550 +/- in 2007.
For VST-ST moves, after a strong move during the last week, we would anticipating a pull back. I am continuing my market analysis and will probably post my comments later.
Nice chart and comment, thanks. VG also noted too.
It bounced off from 25.50 support. It is a critical support.
Can you send me an email?
Markets are too pessimistic as we see perma bears around with pessimistic on economy, pessimistic on the Fed, and pessimistic on many things; so, it is good to see some positive notes.
Market volume is not as high going into close as expected earlier, but until mid day the running rate was very good.
Have a nice weekend.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=18965243
Posted by: __1Best__
In reply to: Van Gogh who wrote msg# 392
Date:4/20/2007 9:15:31 AM
Post #of 412
It is 4/20 as noted with the next one on 5/4 and I believe that other turn dates are within a few trading days.
GG is trading below 26.50 resistance which need to be broken above to see further upside momentum. Also 27 +/- as a strong resistance which need to be broke above.
Gold made intraday higher/high.
FORD closed at a critical support with sym triangle action on daily.
Thanks and Good luck with trades
Are you bigh_md? Markets are at resistances with a minor turn date, so I am cautious as well. Trend is up though. I do not think that this is LT top, i.e. the 2007 top.
btw, did you notice my note on 1best alias on this site?
1best on this site is Impostor of my Alias, so I use __1Best__. You can check with Matt, iHub admin for the fact.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/replies.asp?msg=18936775
I will reassess market after close.
Have a nice weekend... ALL...
Posted by: __1Best__
In reply to: Van Gogh who wrote msg# 402
Date:4/20/2007 11:11:06 AM
Post #of 410
Markets are trading at resistances -- SPX 1485 +/-, DOW 12950 +/-, Nasdaq 2532 +/-, and Qs 45.60 +/- upper resistances as shown on the charts.
Qs gap open is almost closed now. Market volume is good so far in the mid day and with this rate, running Nas/DOW 2m.
Fundamental Market sentiment will be reflected on SMH and $TRANS price actions as those are trading at the upper resistances with initial higher/high price actions.
GOOG price action is positive staying above 480 breakout. Internet is bullish in LT since we are connected through cyber-information system. EBAY price action needs to show better than it has yesterday to bring back bulls' confidence since it has shown faked breakout after triple top breakout.
Also AMD price action is a gauge as to determine underlying market sentiment. So far, selling on good news and selling on extreme bad news and selling on bad news are not a good indicator.
We need to see positive underlying positive price actions.
At the moment, breadth is positive. A/D 3.9 2.29
Market Internals
Issues NYSE Nasdaq
Advancing 2,417 1,963
Declining 620 858
Unchanged 132 148
Total 3,169 2,969
Ratio
Advancers
to Decliners 3.9 2.29
Markets are trading at resistances -- SPX 1485 +/-, DOW 12950 +/-, Nasdaq 2532 +/-, and Qs 45.60 +/- upper resistances as shown on the charts.
The positive divergence on money flow which alerted is working out as we see that DOW is now approaching DOW 13000.
Volume will be taping off after the morning spike with gap open. Money flow is showing positive divergences as alerted a week ago.
Breadth is breaking out of down trendline.
We have SMH and $TRANS are also at breakout resistances with intraday higher/high print outs; therefore, sustained move is certainly is positive even though markets are resistances at the moment.
~~~
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=69204
DOW Breakout with Positive Divergence in money flow
4/18/2007 11:17:38 AM
DOW is approaching higher/high HOD heading to 12795.93 on 9/20.
$SOX/SMH positive price action is certainly helping and, breaking above the trading range, will confirm the recent market breakout.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_ms...age_id=18890136
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=69052
Money Flow positive divergence with higher/high price actions with markets breaking out.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_ms...age_id=18750334
Risky business to bet against "Breaking out" unless we have evidences showing a failure of "Breakout". So far, price actions are progressively confirming "Breakout Retest" scenario which I commented.
-------------------------------
SPX traded higher/ high to 1453.11, breaking above the recent trading range, 1448.73, 4/10 and above rising wedge formation on VST 4wk price actions with the 1429.22 low on 3/30.
DOW traded higher/high to 12615.38 breaking above 12593.60 with the 12242.60 low on 3/30. Nasdaq traded higher/high to 2491.94 near to 2500 resistance. OEX also traded above the recent up trend line making new high to 665.57.NYA traded higher/high to 9522.38 at all time high breaking out of the 2/20 high of 9458.47; as commented before, NYA is leading other major markets.
However, Qs traded to 44.72 which is below the resistance of 44.75 on 4/9 showing slightly weaker price actions that other major markets and indices due to AAPL trading down for the day.
For SPX, Dow and OEX, Money flow on daily shows positive divergence breaking above the Feb 07 high. This can also be seen through MACD actions showing positive divergence comparing to the Feb 07 price actions. Therefore, internal price action continued to show positive price action confirming the anticipation of higher price actions breaking above the Feb 2007 high progressively confirming the “Breakout Retest” scenario which I commented since the March double bottom.
Market breadth is continuing to improve even though it is not as strong sending mixed signals with negative divergences; however, as noted before, we will see narrowing breadth at this stage of market and economic cycles. For example, $NASI daily is continuing to improve after reversing from the breakout support, as noted a couple of weeks ago, which is confirming the “Breakout Support” market action which I commented. Based on the $NASI internal strength as we can see on MACD staying above the zero, with the continued strength staying above the zeroline, Nasdaq internal is positive confirming the price action even if it is not as strong as the one which we have seen during 2003.
Market volume during the last week was relatively moderate going into earning season. I am anticipating higher volume tradings during the earning season and going into OE week. Major market ETFs shorting activities shown on volume is not significant.
In summary, I am anticipating SPX to retest SPX 1461, the Feb 2007 high, and will show a breakout number before it pulls back. I will reassess market strength during the OE week.
Volume is very good, now market needs to support stocks to bring back confident on the market.
The gap fade is alright, but the real test is close.
DOW 13000 is not far from here, but we need to see big funds supporting stocks, not fading into good price actions.
Breadth during the morning gap was excellent.
Issues NYSE Nasdaq
Advancing 2,413 1,990
Declining 433 622
Unchanged 126 109
Total 2,972 2,721
Ratio
Advancers
to Decliners 5.57 3.2
It looks to be bear hedge funds are knocking down some good performed stocks trying to fade the breakouts, FOR EXAMPLE, EBAY, so bulls need to defend the move to show confidence.
If bulls want to prove, bulls will support the price actions.
As noted before, Money flows on major markets were showing positive divergences.
Just not an easy market to be totally bullish.
Yes, MSFT is also supporting the market while INTC is weak.
GOOG is trading above the resistance 480 as noted and below 491.70 R so it is trading as anticipated.
Again, bulls will support market if they want to bring back confidence.
Have a great day
Market looks bearish even though GOOG is pushing market up.
Need to show better price actions, AMD/INTC are selling off.
Need to Watch out for selling into good and bad news on stocks while markets are pushed up with a few big caps.
WB, AMD is already discounted over 70%.
It is coming out with new product so it needs to be hopeful.
EBAY sold off on good earning news yesterday.
Have a good day
Posted by: __1Best__
In reply to: greenstreet who wrote msg# 373
Date:4/19/2007 10:50:57 PM
Post #of 398
The oversea performance probably influenced the performance today. Also, the turn date, 4/20, was dominating the market sentiment, it seems.
Even though EBAY reported good earnings, it sold off.
For AMD, market expectation was so bad going into the earning report. AMD traded down over 70% from 42.40 to 12.50 area before it bounced off from pit. The expectation was so bad and ugly on this stock. The loss was due to acquisition as well. The $SOX expectation was so bad during the last few years; therefore, it is trying to bounce off from the recent trading range.
Price often leads economy. For $SOX, sentiment and expectation was just awful... it was dead money, but it is trying to breakout now. Market sentiment and price action is mixed, but at the resistance, bearish sentiment is obvious.
It will be interesting with mixed earning reports. At least SMH was trading positive.
EBAY performance is disappointing because it broke out of triple resistance, but it is sold off with the good earning report.
Will see what happens tomorrow with GOOG good earing report. Traders were selling off all internet stocks even with good earning reports.
Hope you had a good day
It is 4/20 as noted with the next one on 5/4 and I believe that other turn dates are within a few trading days.
GG is trading below 26.50 resistance which need to be broken above to see further upside momentum. Also 27 +/- as a strong resistance which need to be broke above.
Gold made intraday higher/high.
FORD closed at a critical support with sym triangle action on daily.
Thanks and Good luck with trades
GOOG traded in a range for 5 months. It is trading above 480 resistance which is a strong resistance. 491.70 +/- is another resistance which will be faded since it is trading with a huge runaway gap. With successful trading and consolidation, 513 retest is likely.
AMZN is broken out before earning report, but EBAY as a model selling off triple top breakout, we need to be cautious of Breakout fakes.
Sent you an email.
Good luck with trades
Qs is trading near testing 45.55 Feb 22 high in premarket showing another breakaway gap.
SPX 1475 will be broke above at the open, so far it seems. Based on SPY action, it is making new high.
SMH is trading above breakout resistance at 36 in premarket. Intraday shows Overbought; therefore, we need to see a good consolidation. Again EBAY as a model, this breakout is suspicious and needs to handle accordingly taken EBAY as a model of breakout fake.
VG, sent you an email.
GOOG is trading up above resistance after good earning. However, EBAY as an example, traders were selling the breakout from triple top with good news. Again this is a warning sign.
Until proven otherwise, being skeptical about breakout is a good thing. A few big hedge funds can take individual stocks up and down.
With good price action today, GOOG will retest 513 and good sentiment on internet if we see higher AMZN report, it will breakout as AMZN and EBAY trading above breakout level again.
Small cap $RUT shows three day decline, but it closed the runaway gap yesterday also, the three day selloff action is not strong as we can see that it only took out one bullish move.
SMH is continuing to trade above 36 breakout in premarket, but again EBAY fade from triple top breakout is a warning signal until it is not.
I am sure that traders will likely fade this gap. Will see whether markets will be turning out to be all like EBAY fade.
Have a good day and good trades.
$SSEC gained 3.92% to 3584.20, since the yesterday sell-off was due to strong economy, it makes sense to gain right back based on the breakout from 3050. The advancement is fundamentally supported by strong economic growth. “No short” selling in China is what I heard. This is understandable since the financial market, capitalism, is fairly new and developing.
GSH made a huge move and a support came in at the breakout but intraday is still pointing down. With a strong future, we need to see whether it will bounce. Depending on entry point, I would take profit.
Futures are breaking out with strong GOOG performance.
All overseas markets are performing very well.
Since we have a minor turn date window, we need to be careful. This could be a breakout to upside, but again, EBAY as a model selling off on the news after breakout, we need to see that traders are not faking “break out”
Good luck with trades
Glad that you are doing well. Market sentiment is mixed even though DOW is making new highs and SMH is ready to breakout.
Bad market sentiment can be seen through EBAY action today, not good way to trade a stock which reported good earning report and which is broken above triple top formation. This is a significant warning signal as far as I am concerned. Therefore, GOOG and AMD trades could be another warnings.
EBAY action could be reflecting fundamental market psychology of major market breakouts; so need to watch out.
You did nice stock research. Just like you, I am going through a project in transition. Hope that your project is going well. Certainly, having a big project such as renovation keeps one busy for sure.
ESLR closed at support and we certainly need more Solar Energy development.
I did not like EBAY action, so I would not trust breakouts at this point unless I see better price actions.
Good luck to ALL
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