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Randy, thanks, $SOX has broken above the 7mo trading range resistance and 500 R, however, it retrieved from the DEC 2005 resistance with TXN 35.50 R and INTC 22.50 R consolidations at the respective resistances.
SMH and $SOX have broken above the resistances and markets are showing consolidating at the moment. Will need to reassess market actions later and also keep in mind that I am traveling at the moment.
For Short term trading, TA and other take precedent over fundamentals.
Good luck with trading and best wishes
Hi GB55, thanks
Your trading plan based on the breadth indicator worked out well, as you also commented. I commented on the market formation and breadth actions since Mar 2007 double bottom with "breakout retest" formation which is a bullish formation.
We need to find Successful trading strategy based on at least 10 year data and apply to different stocks. Having successful trading plan is a hard work, otherwise, everyone could be a millionaire.
For the trading strat which you have shown and commented on, for this time, market played out different trading strat, i.e. "Breakout formation" reversal - double bottom.
Combining your chart and my comment, it worked out very good as market performed based on the "breakout formation".
I am traveling at the moment, so I am on slower speed and in rush... might be able to add other thoughts later.
Best wishes and good trading
VG, Thanks Market worked out nicely as I can quickly review market actions.
Qs broke above the "Megaphone Formation" upper TL resistance and and traded two days above it. The "cup & handle" formation breakout has nicely played out, pausing at the July 2001 resistance and, in the meantime, it is consolidating. At the moment, it is now testing the breakout
Qs weekly turned positive.
Today is the last day of the month, so the day is favorably. Will see how market will close though.
I am sorry that I am not sure what you are referring to that you shared something which you have not discussed with other? Are referring to the shared information on the boards or through private email? As we both noted, it is better to stick with general information on the boards as we experienced various types of incidents.
In the past, I usually am offline for a while, e.g. I was offline during Apr 2006, and I am still traveling. Right now, I am near Ocean City, but everything seems to be slooooow. Am planning to continue to travel as I visit my family members.
As for your other comments, I will address those later since I am on slow speed internet connection.
I hope that you are enjoying markets and we know that we love what we do. At least that I think you do.
You are doing good and best wishes
Good trades
VG, thanks for your comments on your other posts. The dotted lines are zig zag retracement lines. I also added trendlines included dotted horizontal line, e.g. AMZN chart near at 59-60.
As for your other comments, I will get back to you when I get back online again since I am rushing right now.
Keep up the good work and Good luck with trades
Excellent explanation for the break-out measured targets even though the measured targets are not 100% guaranteed. If so, everyone will be trillionaires. We need to deal with over/under shoots as well.
AMZN price action higher target above 50 was due to the earning report and I was anticipating the price action above 50. The price action which we have seen is just superb.
$SOX breakout and closing above 500 is also progressively positive toward confirming breakout to the next target to 560. We need to see INTC/TXN breakout.
Good trades
Thanks, the goal is to understand market actions. Obsession on certain market can be destructive and a waste of time.
Your objective market comments will assist others including me to better understand markets, if not, wasting others time.
Our time is very valuable and we need to be very careful to use our time and expertise wisely, not to make noise.
Others would not want to go through noise through "RSS" feeds... so focusing Technicals without too much bias will help yourself and others. Make every post to be worthwhile and contributing to understanding markets will help yourself and others.
Good trades
Not sure what you were saying whether you were bullish or bearish on WM as shown below.
I am traveling so I will be offline for the next fews day. Be positive and constructive.
Best wishes
Posted by: Jamestown
In reply to: None
Date:4/12/2007 6:51:20 PM
Post #of 559
Just some noise that is interesting. WM (Washington Mutual) has 33,383 puts dated for July. It also has 4,290 calls dated for the same month and same strike price of 40. Not a recommendation at all so buyers beware. And by the way they report next week. During Op Ex nonetheless. Trade Safe.
VG, NDX is outperforming Nasdaq at the moment.
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=69523
Even though market makes new highs, this is stock pickers market, so need to be careful.
Interestingly, OEX is making new highs with moderate small cap performance.
$SOX has broken above 7mo trading range and 7yr down TL. It is now closed at 502.84 above 500 resistance.
DOW closed above 13000, at 13089.89, registering a new milestone today as alerted during premarket. SPX 1495.42 above 1485 resistance, and Nasdaq at 2547.89 above 2530 resistance. I commented that markets will attempt to breakout and also commented that "Breakout" will not fail. We now have successful breakouts above the resistances on Monday.
Commented on positive divergences on money flow, improving breadth, confirming "Breakout" breadth patterns, and showing initial breakouts. Also noted that I do not see ST top formation at the resistances and noted that "Breakout" will not fail. I noted that $NYA was leading major markets when it was breaking out. We now see that all major markets are indeed breaking out including the underperformed $SOX as noted yesterday when it has broken above 7yr downtrend line and above 7mo trading range.
Commented that one of factors which fueled Jun-Jul 2006 rally was series of short-squeeze in addition to buying pressure, and that we will likely see the similar scenario during this breakout rally. I still see many do not see the market actions even though I am explaining the message of markets. It is the same as the Jun-Jul 2006 rally when many did not see it.
We now see DOW above 13000 resistance along with SPX and Nasdaq above resistances with improving breadth actions and confirming breadth breakout formations. Furthermore, we have $SOX closing above 500 resistance.
AAPL is trading at 102, a new high above 97.80 on 1/10/07 after earning report in AH.
In summary, market is breaking out to new highs with improving breadth heading to targets of Qs 50 and SPX 1550 +/-, and Nasdaq 2700 as the next targets.
Markets are blowing off shorts. Still trying to short the market, I see that you are trying again. Sooner or later, market will retrace.
Market seems to be showing higher volatility like what we have seen after 1995.
AAPL is trading up 9.17, 9.84%, with new high.
I stated that TXN will consolidate after meeting the target which alerted as shown below, but will see.
However, note "LLTC" gap up price action. Consolidating and heading higher.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=19058142
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=19064791
Posted by: __1Best__
In reply to: Van Gogh who wrote msg# 505
Date:4/24/2007 10:39:24 AM
Post #of 554
TXN has resistance near at 35 - 35.40 shown on the weekly chart.
I expect a consolidation period after this gap up.
Your focused market analysis is much better than those who are making constant noise wasting time and energy.
No Noise:
Excellent market analysis is a breadth of fresh air while constant noise is a real waste of time.
Riks:
I do not encourage anyone to take high risk even in young age. It is like a habit... could be blowing off one day... unfortunately like Jesse; therefore, it is always wise to be keen in Technical analysis with genuine desire to understand the markets. You certainly have the genuine interest in the market, that I see, so just need to have clarity of mind to see right opportunities instead of chasing too many opportunities.
Also, I do not encourage anyone to reveal too much personal information on public post since it is private financial information which needs to be guarded accordingly.
Big Money:
Those who have sharp minds are making billions like Sport game stars. Consistent performance with progressively improving market skill is important than hitting home-runs all the time. I have called accurate market calls, but we need to develop another level of market sense to make BIG money.
Charts:
Using standard Stockcharts.com chart without trendlines drawn is fine if you want to use charts. Just save a format of a chart in a word document or notepad, and change stock Symbol.
I will be offline for the next few days
Best wishes
Thanks VG, AMZN certainly has shown amazing price action today, heading near to 60 target after trading above 50 as shown on the chart yesterday.
You also have good market sense, as you have shown your good picks such as MRK while that was off of my radar, you alerted it and it moved BIG.
AMZN moved BIG... very BIG. This kinds of moves do not come easy and only those who have sharp mind will recognize those and trade it. We need to avoid those who habitually make noise wasting our time, furthermore, we also need to avoid taking too much risk.
There are differences between taking intelligent risk and making habitual noise like old dripping water facet.
We need to have sharp and intelligent trading mind, in order to make profitable trades such as AMZN, TXN, and other moves. During earning season, Risk/Reward goes up. Being Long TXN/AMZN were good educated guess and bets for VST.
AAPL is also trading higher in AH. It had good earning records.
Yes, AA has broken out closing the day at the breakout similar as 2/13 price action. On weekly, it has strong triple top formation as of close with big sym triangle formation since 2001, so need to be careful at this juncture to look for a confirmation. But unless proven otherwise, need to note 2/13 action.
I hope that you have nice trading and keep up the good work. You have good stock analysis instead of noises.
Best wishes
DOW 13000, Dow registered the milestone. The Breakout will not fail... as market is progressively confirming the breakout.
Will close above DOW 13000 and SPX above 1485 resistance heading to SPX 1550 target.... As noted, Qs is progressively heading to the target 50 +/-. Nasdaq is trading near 2530 Feb 2007 resistance and $SOX 500 resistance.
We need to see markets trade above DOW 13000 and close above aformentioned resistances into close
$SOX, SMH, and INTC show breakouts as shown on LT charts with which we need to see follow-through as major markets and indices are progressively showing "Breakout" through the recent rallies.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=19092324
Premarket is positive with good AMZN earning news, Qs trading at 45.80 and AMZN trading at 52 at the moment. AMZN is trading above 50 resistance which is bullish.
We will likely see DOW 13000 today.
As commented yesterday before the AMZN (i) earning news, 50 was the initial target, however, with the good earning, it is trading above 50 R. On weekly it is showing inverse H&S which is a bullish formation with a breakout before the earning news.
Let's see whether EBAY gains the breakout and trade higher with the good earning. Trading above 34.25 will provide more confidence for confirming the breakout before the earning news.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=19068447
You can study $SOX & SMH charts. SMH 39 +/- is the next target with a successful breakout.
Posted by: __1Best__
In reply to: mikeanthony who wrote msg# 516
Date:4/25/2007 12:02:40 AM
Post #of 540
$SOX is now broken above the 7mo trading range as SMH led the breakout. Now, my monthly $SOX is showing initial buy signal. I commented on AMZN and $SOX on TT.
Monthly $SOX was consolidating for 7 years in a coil-symmetrical triangle formation after the big 1999-2000 rally. $SOX 560 is the target. On monthly price action, it traded above Dec2004 and Mar2005 high supports.
Breaking above $560 is very bullish.
INTC is trading at resistance, so, it needs to break above 22.50 +/- resistance to be successful breakout.
USO is trading at resistance.
Need to focus on specific stocks since you have good trading skill through your experience. You made some good stock selections even though those are not my focus since some have high beta.
I know that you do your homework, not like some who are using others' work and making noises.
Good presentation of your thoughts on the board could also help you to clarify your trading plans. Remember that we have 15 min to edit your initial thoughts. When we are tired or performing multi-task, our thought and writings are not as coherent as we intended, so when we can, we need to focus a bit better. Right now, I am tired so I might not be as clear. Furthermore, I would like to polish my effective writing skill even though I took several English classes.
You have some great ideas which can be further developed with clarity and good presentation which could help your thoughts.
Take care and hope that you will be productive, constructive, and positive... and, of course, making money when you make trades.
Best wishes
My comment on $SOX and INTC.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=19092324
$SOX is now broken above the 7mo trading range as SMH led the breakout. Now, my monthly $SOX is showing initial buy signal. I commented on AMZN and $SOX on TT.
Monthly $SOX was consolidating for 7 years in a coil-symmetrical triangle formation after the big 1999-2000 rally. $SOX 560 is the target. On monthly price action, it traded above Dec2004 and Mar2005 high supports.
Breaking above $560 is very bullish.
INTC is trading at resistance, so, it needs to break above 22.50 +/- resistance to be successful breakout.
For earning reports, you can check earning calendar link on this board ibox.
INTC is trading at 22.50 +/- resistance; however, for LT chart, we can see that it moved above the down trendline. The INTC LT chart resembles $SOX chart.
AMZN target near 50 coming up after the earning report.
AMZN breakout is successful breakout.
Now, we need to get EBAY breakout to be successful!
I am positive on internet/telecom stocks because it is future commerce and global, future communication.
emini NQ on Stockcharts... not sure, but trading platforms have it.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=19068447
Your chart
As said earlier.... EXCELLENT CHART
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=19067511
DOW 13000, heading to mark the milestone.
HOD 12989.86, it is only 10.14 points away.
It looks like market is heading to it.
JT: Glad to hear that you are doing well.
MA: Glad to hear that you learned good at young age, 25.
Cramer is doing the job of rallying young kids on different college campus. Money management and discipline is the key.
I can tell you that there will be many young kids who will be obsessed with markets, some will be successful and others will go through a lot of pain - financially, physically, and mentally. Market is one of the great self-discipliner if you are willing to learn, otherwise, some will be under great pain. Unshakable discipline and mind is absolutely necessary to survive in a long run as a young trader, for that matter, any young kids who are genuinely interested in the market.
Good trading
JT, are you all right?
MA, Be careful, market is showing volatility. Not sure how long you have traded, did you put facts on your profile? You could be a young trader who is fearless.
The charts which I am showing is to put on ibox which I don't use those for trading, but for others and for market analysis.
Yes, shorts were squeezed during the recent rallies.
Good tradings, ALL
~~~
SINCE I POSTED THIS, AAPL IS FALLING OFF...
AAPL is continuing to show strength while AMGN is a disappointment.
Fred Anderson, Apple Inc.'s former chief financial officer, has agreed to settle with the Securities and Exchange Commission on his alleged part in backdating stock options, according to reports on Tuesday.
Anderson
OIL, USO, GOLD, GLD, CRB
VIX, VXN, TRIN, CPC
VOLATILITY
CBOE Put/Call data
http://www.cboe.com/data/IntraDayVol.aspx
Qs traded to new high breaking above 45.50 intraday resistance which I noted earlier. I commented that the Jun-Jul 2006 rally was fueled by short-covering which we could see the same scenario during the breakout rally.
SMH is showing strong follow-through trading above the breakout at 36 as noted and now it is showing a confirmation of the breakout from 7mo trading range. I noted that $SOX/SMH show a break above 7yr down trendline on LT chart.
We now have $SOX breaking out trading above 7mo trading range.
Excellent chart. Monthly charts show potential bullish settings on major internet stocks. On weekly chart, it is showing inverse H&S.
With the successful breakout formation which I noted on my chart and with the forecast which you are showing, internet stocks could perform well. EBAY and GOOG earnings were good as well as YHOO earning forecast with Panama is hopeful than market has discounted.
If you would like to, I would like you to post good chart settings during this week since I will be away for the next few days.
Van Gogh has shown interesting trading ideas and stock picks as well.
Good trading
Qs bounced off from 45.33 which is an intraday stupport 50ma and S1. SPX 1475 +/- which is intraday stupport 50ma and S1. SPX 1475 +/-
Qs 45.50 +/- is a resistance from the bounce which we need to see it trades above to regain positive momentum for VST.
MA, good morning, yes, as I comment on trading patterns as well.
I like Sea world in south Miami. Also, I worked in Miami downtown in mid 80s. Like that ole Burdines' department store color the same as your glass background color - aquagreen. Glass half-full which is a positive thinking.
We have AMZN earning report today. Don't like to see bearish on Internet stocks, but market is showing a bit of bearish sentiment on internets.
Have a great day
TXN has resistance near at 35 - 35.40 shown on the weekly chart.
I expect a consolidation period after this gap up.
FDG - your good pick .. its up 2.73% today.
Good trading
AMD has a corp bond offer today.
SUNNYVALE, Calif., Apr 24, 2007 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD, Trade) today announced the pricing of $2 billion aggregate principal amount of 6.00% Convertible Senior Notes due 2015 in a private placement to qualified institutional buyers pursuant to Rule 144A under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. AMD granted to the initial purchasers a 30-day option to purchase up to $200 million aggregate principal amount of additional notes to cover over-allotments.
Interest on the notes will be paid semiannually on May 1 and November 1 at a rate of 6.00% per year. Upon the occurrence of certain events, the notes will be convertible into cash up to the principal amount, and if applicable, shares of common stock in respect of any conversion value above the principal amount, based on an initial conversion rate of 35.6125 shares of common stock per $1,000 principal amount of notes, which is equivalent to an initial conversion price of $28.08 per share. This initial conversion price represents a premium of 100% relative to the last reported sale price on April 23, 2007 of AMD's common stock of $14.04 per share. Holders of the notes may require AMD to repurchase the notes for cash equal to 100% of the principal amount to be repurchased plus accrued and unpaid interest upon the occurrence of certain designated events.
Qs trading at 45.67 in premarket.
Markets are trading near resistances in premarket:
Market resistances, Qs 45.55 +/-, SPX 1485 +/-, Nasdaq 2530 +/-, and DOW 13000 +/-.
Markets will attempt to make the milestone of DOW 13000, and trade to SPX 1500 during this week.
~~~
Asian market, KOSPI performed positive while Euro are showing negative at the moment.
~~~
As noted during premarket, $SSEC is continuing to make new highs after breaking above 3050 15yr resistance. It closed with new high at 3710.89 and now it is trading near 3740. $KOSPI is also trading higher after the recent breakout while $NIKK is yet to show breakout levels as the same as $SSEC & $KOSPI.
It takes good technical trading skills to call bottoms and tops for stocks. Successful positioning will provide greater reward with greater risk since it is like "catching falling knife" or "standing in front of a running train".
Superior trading skills will favor successful trading outcome and, in a longer run, it will give you greater reward.
It seems that you have a good experience in financial market.
Money management is a very important factor for experienced traders to be successful in trading.
Good luck with trades
Weekly - Qs, SPX, DOW, Nasdaq, SMH
TXN is trading at 35.30 in premarket. It is a resistance as alerted. LLTC reported good earning and it is consolidating after trading with a gap up.
SMH is trading at 36.80 in premarket above the breakout.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=19027280
Posted by: __1Best__
Date:4/23/2007 10:26:34 AM
TXN has good earning track record and it seems that good growth in 2008 is not priced in to the market, but when it breaks above the 35 resistance, it will confirm the anticipation.
Earnings Estimates # of Ests. Mean Est. High Est. Low Est. EPS Growth
Quarter Ending 06/2007 29 0.37 0.41 0.33 -21.86%
Quarter Ending 09/2007 29 0.43 0.49 0.37 -3.98%
Year Ending 12/2007 33 1.57 1.82 1.39 -4.68%
Year Ending 12/2008 28 1.89 2.18 1.53 19.92%
Quarterly Earnings Surprises Estimate Actual Surprise(%)
Quarter Ending 03/2007 0.31 0.35 12.90%
Quarter Ending 12/2006 0.38 0.40 5.26%
Quarter Ending 09/2006 0.45 0.45 0.00%
Quarter Ending 06/2006 0.46 0.47 2.17%
Quarter Ending 03/2006 0.33 0.33 0.00%
TXN is trading at 35.47 after earning report in AH and SMH trading at 36.81; as a result, SMH and $SOX breakout is progressively confirmed as we can see that SMH is now trading above 36 breakout. Markets are trading at the resistances, Qs 45.55 +/-, SPX 1485 +/-, Nasdaq 2530 +/-, and DOW 13000 +/-.
As noted during premarket, $SSEC is continuing to make new highs after breaking above 3050 15yr resistance. It closed with new high at 3710.89 and now it is trading near 3740. $KOSPI is also trading higher after the recent breakout while $NIKK is yet to show breakout levels as the same as $SSEC & $KOSPI.
Even though markets are trading at resistances, depending on trading timeframe, premature shorts will only push markets higher as we have seen the rally since Jun-Jul 2006 when bearish sentiment shorts continued fueled markets to upside.
I commented that I see positive divergences on money flow even though market breadth is not as strong as a new beginning of a bull market. Nevertheless, breadth is improving.
Since markets are at resistance, a caution is necessary; however, I don't see strong reasons making me to think that we have a ST top.
I am traveling, so, my comments will be brief until May.
VG, FDG 25.60 +/- is a resistance with double top formation from May 2005 bottom.
On daily chart, trading above 25 is certainly heading toward the resistance of 25.60 +/-, and on weekly chart, 50ma R depending on your timeframe.
Once it trades above the resistance, it looks like it will run.
Good luck with the position
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=19049022
FDG-breakout Please check out.
all data chart shown below
http://img265.imageshack.us/img265/805/fdgaf3.jpg
Appears that FDG broke out today. Certainly it has one more test a dollar ahead or so but I really like that chart. Great yield as well.
You can see the resistance ahead and the macd appears to be coming up to resistance but I think this one may be worth watching.
strategy:
1/2 position now
1/2 position after clearing resistance ahead
(hopefully on weakness)
*pretty ironic to see a coal trust stock breaking out with CNBC going crazy on "green" power and alt energy!
Not sure if the yield I am seeing is correct but will find out soon I guess since I already own a 1/2 position as discussed.
I show 26% yield which should go down pretty quick of course if it takes off here.
TXN, SMH, $SOX, $SSEC, AAPL
TXN is trading at 35.53 at the moment after earning report in AH and SMH trading at 36.91; as a result, SMH and $SOX breakout is progressively confirmed.
We now have probable $SOX breakout along with other major markets - $NYA, $INDU, $OEX, $MID, etc.
Also, note AAPL price action as alerted at 10:26:34 AM this morning
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=19027280
$SSEC charts & A brief comment
China $SSEC Breakout with over 10% GDP Growth.
The $SSEC very LT formation which pointed out in Mar 2007... and US Weekly price action formation - Fractal/Resemble - The Price Channel which pointed out during Jun-Jul 2006.
SMH is trading at 36.85 in AH with TXN move. Breakout from the 7mo trading range is getting progressively affirmed.
Glad to hear that you managed your position well.
Trading near 35 R
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=19027280
Posted by: __1Best__
In reply to: Jamestown who wrote msg# 479
Date:4/23/2007 10:26:34 AM
Post #of 488
TXN has good earning track record and it seems that good growth in 2008 is not priced in to the market, but when it breaks above the 35 resistance, it will confirm the anticipation.
Markets are trading at the resistances, Qs 45.55 +/-, SPX 1485 +/-, Nasdaq 2530 +/-, and DOW 13000 +/-.
Those resistances are visible on the charts at the trendline resistances, as well as DOW 13000 psychological number resistance. Having said that, I am not convinced that markets are topped as of Friday, 4/20; co-incidentally, as we know, it is the Breadley's turn date.
As noted earlier, TXN report in AH and market reaction will provide more insight as the report can be used as a catalyst for the $SOX-SMH actions.
Good idea to exit at the good moment with a pull back, then reassess market actions.
Good trading
Thanks, since I don't see your email address on your profile and since I do not have PM feature at the moment, I thought it will be better to have your email address for communicating certain things.
Enjoy the day and good trading
Qs targeting $50, May 2001 resistance, with successful breakout of $SOX/SMH.
As shown on the monthly chart, Qs has already borken out of resistance at Dec 2001 high heading to May 2001 resistance.
With successful breakout of $SOX/SMH and with the global bullish sentiment, $SSEC as an example, Qs will see $50.