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PASO’s Sep 1 PR gave us hint that they were pretty much done, when they said that they were actively pursuing additional transactions in the same sentence with CLX LOI.
“PASO is actively pursuing additional transactions in addition to the LOI with CLX Health, LLC”
Probably, smart people got the message and started selling.
PASO Shares info on OTC Markets on Aug 24, 2020:
Total o/s shares 750m
Restricted 236m
Unrestricted 514m
Float 221m
Seems unrestricted share-count increased significantly to 514m, which means the float can increase as well.
I can't remember if the unrestricted share count was so much before. Did it change recently? Anyone?
Can you give us an example or two they did same as this in the past?
PASO’s Sep 1 PR is the most troubling one for me, when they mentioned that they were actively pursuing additional transactions in the same sentence with CLX LOI.
“PASO is actively pursuing additional transactions in addition to the LOI with CLX Health, LLC”
It’s like you’re considering multiple offers for your home sale. That happens only when you have not finalized on any particular offer.
If it was any other business transaction, why would you indicate in the same sentence (referring CLX LOI).
It could be a different thing but I just cannot forget this sentence.
If you have a different take, would love to hear it.
You and I will be here until the end of Q4 or the day it happens.
We will see whether it happens between PASO-CLX or as you say, between PASO-CLX-TRU and others.
Until that day, you keep doing what you do the best and I do mine.
Just remember, goal is same.
Good luck and peace!
Well, while I would love to see other big partners involved in the merger process like you speculate at all times.
As I mentioned before, so far we have not seen any such indication from anyone.
You interpret CLX business partners (incl. TRu) as a potential merger partner. Therefore, you assume massive value creation pre-DA and green signal by the partners are important/needed.
On the other hand, I interpret them as a mere business partners of CLX (inc. TRu), so don't treat them as potential merger partners.
Although I become happy for CLX when they do business/HA/Trupass with others assuming that will bring value for us if they merge with PASO.
One thing is certain LOI is between PASO and CLX, everything else is pure speculation.
My only focus is ALWAYS on:
Whether they are behaving like they are 'engaged'; and
Whether they're acting like they are going to have 'wedding' (in this case RM).
If you read my posts, you will see that all of my analysis focused on these two things.
All that matters is the RM.
As long as PASO and CLX are engaged (and planning to merry each other as planned), nothing to worry.
If that happens, the current price movement, the noise, the timing (Q4 or whatever) and everything else in between, nothing matters.
That's my point. If there is any indication that Tru (or any other partner) takes a piece of the merger, then doog's massive value creation, makes perfect sense. You complete RM, stock price goes high, you get a part of it.
If they are doing just business, then whether PASO-CLX makes stock price to go $1 or $100, they get nothing.
Still i don't see the connection between CLX audited financials with massive value and the so-called global partners green light for DA.
If the global partners are doing business with CLX, that means they have the confidence on CLX regardless. From business perspective, they are okay.
The only reason, they will want to see a massive value creation before DA if they are going to be a part of PASO-CLX merger (i.e., they will merge too) and they become an equity holder, which will benefit them. So far don't see any such indication.
If they're mere business partner, PASO-CLX merger and massive value creation will not help them anyway.
So I don't see any connection unless I am missing something!
Are you implying other global partners also planning to be merged with PASO? Otherwise, i don't see how they are going to be benefitted if there is a massive value creation or not on CLX books.
I see you often refer this (quoted below). What's you assumption behind that the global partners won't grant green light to CLX for a DA.
it remains my firm belief that the CLX global whale partners won't grant CLX the green light to file the DA until there's MASSIVE value reflected on the fully audited fins!
PASO indicated that CLX's convertible preferred ratio is 1:100. So 10m will be equivalent to 1 billion common.
Curretnly, they have 750m o/s shares. If you add potential future 1b CLX, it comes to 1.75 b o/s shares. Then you have to add existing shareholders incentive 1 for 5000 plus I assume, they are going to issue some to other stakeholders during RM time. Plus probably, they are keeping some on hand, if in case.
So the math will be more of speculative between 2.5b and 1.75 b as there are a lot of unknows at this point.
Investophile: One thought to answer your question is that PASO is going to issue 10m convertible preferred shares to CLX for RM.
In order to issue 10m convertible preferred, they have to have equivalent common shares in their disposal because at some point they have to convert those preferred to common and they have to have the ability to do so.
Doog, due to this active LOI, we all are still here. No one disputes that.
The real question, we have to ask ourselves, is it going to happen based on the ever-evolving circumstances around PASO and CLX.
We wouldn't ask this question, if CLX did not defer the DD for business opportunities, we wouldn't be less confident if there was a specific date, we wouldn't be skeptical if the market would show more enthusiasm, we wouldn't doubt if PASO wouldn't say that they were looking for others in addition to CLX, we wouldn't question if the price action and volume were positive.
I have the same interest as you but my DD based on PASO-CLX, nothing else at this point.
The ONE AND ONLY DD is relevant here is the fact that provides more and more assurance (and reassurances) that RM is going to happen.
Everything else is speculation, certainly not DD.
SPECULATION IS NOT DD.
Everyday I see that DD is mostly based on speculation and speculative facts. I guess people need to look at the definition of DD.
It was Aug 7, 2020 at 12:05
There was a valid reason for me to expect DA in Oct. Read CLX TWEET below (last sentence) which indicated they will target early Q4.
You have to be on top of things to tie them together!
“Thank you for information requests of the CLXHealth roadmap. Consortium continues to work with Pubco candidate identified in publicly filed 5/29 LOI. Milestones being achieved weekly as part of standard due diligence. We continue to target early Q4 to conclusion.”
I said DA may not by Oct 16 as that’s the tender offer deadline, which is a reasonable assumption.
The businesses or CEOs don’t take decisions like this alone (and they’re not expected to). They always consult with lawyers/accountants or other experts before doing anything to do with tender offer or complicated stuff like this.
So you would expect that when they decided one day Sep 18 for tender offer, that was well thought out. If they did not, then you would say that was reckless on their part.
Being an investor, if you want to give them a pass for anything and everything, that’s possible but that’s reckless too.
My assumptions are fact based. If you have a different take on each of the issues i raised, I am open to hear it.
CLX asks for extension, they comply. Shareholders call or email for extension, they comply. Even charities do not comply so easy ...
Tender offer deadline extension to Oct 16 was a big disappointment. Some thought Sep 18 was a significant date, cleaning up books, getting ready for DA in Oct or Q4. Suddenly, moving to Oct 16 indicates, there is no plan, all random.
It also means, nothing is coming DA related before Oct 16.
Apparently, Mr. CSO is more busy on business development than anything else.
To be fair, he was never identified as a spokesman for RM by any party.
Stock price goes up or down for a reason (other than occasional affect of overall market conditions). It’s not random. Market is never wrong about the direction of the stock price. CAUSE AND EFFECT.
Your DD must involve the recent activities, events, behavior pattern in and around a significant event to determine whether it’s on the right track.
No question of commitment. You can say little bit of conflict of interest will keep him (JG) away pushing too hard for RM.
Holding 83m shares of PASO and being CSO of CLX (or even a co creator of CLX), in other words representative of billion dollar companies UST G and SIQ, it’s not an easy task to balance. He is the only one have interest in both PASO and CLX, the other partners (UST and S!Q) don't.
If he was a sole owner of CLX or at least the bigger whale, it would be much easier for him.
It’s a fine line to walk on. Anyone of JG’s caliber will understand that. It's not easy for everyday people to understand this delicate issue.
BEST AND WORST:
Best case scenario:
We are getting a bonus prefd. shares (1 for every 5000), DA comes sometime in Q4, RM closing happens in Q4, stock price goes parabolic and everything is sunshine and everyone becomes happy, happy ending.
Worst case scenario:
Recently, they increased authorized shares to 2.5 billions. Some folks are going to convert to prefd., which will reduce the o/s shares and float. Previously, they had 750m authorized and 750m outstanding, so they had no room to further dilute.
Let's assume LOI gets terminated, no DA (so no RM). All retails, dreamers, small-big position holders start selling, stock price goes south big big time.
They don't have much revenue and cash flow, they will need money, so further dilution comes as they now have enough authorized shares to make things worse. At this point, where does price go, it's anyone's guess.
Some people are depending on JG too much. True, he is a learned, well educated successful person but he is not Warren Buffett or a successful business man, in a typical sense or a stock trader or an investor. He is more successful in his own area of expertise.
Some people argue, JG and his family bought a tons of shares of PASO. He bought most of the shares pre-Jul 15, probably, with the anticipation of RM like us. We have not heard anything that he or his family is still buying (or bought any shares post Jul 15. If you know otherwise, pl. share). If RM does not happen, like us, he is going to lose some money (or anticipated profit) on this deal as well, for sure.
Although JG is a key man in this deal, I still believe the RM will mostly depend on the will of UST Global and Serious IQ, not all depends on JG.
A lot of us are invested in this big time (incl. myself). Hope they don't screw up.
If you have a different take on anything and everything, please feel free to comment.
Good Luck!
I guess i wasn't clear enough in my question. My question was more to know if the shares that became unrestricted (and added to float) was from insiders or outsiders.
Do we know if any of the restricted shares became unrestricted recently?
Curious to know as to how this 47m shares added to the float from O/s shares?
Do we know if any of the restricted shares became unrestricted recently?
Until recent increase of AS, their AS and OS shares were same 750m, so we know for sure there was no dilution (and did not add to o/s shares). The only way float can increase is the restricted shares became unrestricted.
Thanks a lot, hope you know.
Unfortunately, I don’t have that option yet, so going like this. Also did not notice the other ones before, so I am late. Thanks again!
Support and resistance are irrelevant here. Most people are here for RM.
If RM is in good standing, nothing matters.
Ask yourself a question:
Do you still believe that RM is happening?
1. If the answer is yes, ignore support and resistance for now and stay on course.
2. If the answer is NO, make your decision as you deem fit.
Since RM closing was set to Q4, most naked short sellers probably, assumed that there will be no major RM related news by Sep 30 and that probably, motivated them to increase position between Jul 15 and now.
So yes, your assumption of huge naked short position makes sense considering the small float size and retails tight long position. My intention was not to challenge your assumption but to validate if you are indeed referring to naked shorts.
Anyway, I would say most short position will/should be covered by Sep 30 and or early October as they may not take any chances on release of any RM news in October unless situation changes between now and Sep 30.
As you pointed out that hundreds of millions of shares were traded during last few months, we have to remember a lot of them due to just day-trading buying and selling hundreds of times. That adds up to the daily or monthly overall trading volume.
If 100 million shares are traded 5 times, that can make 500 million trading volume. I am sure you know it but the point is all those hundreds of millions of shares that were traded during last few months do not really indicate anything assuming the float is still 147 (or 167) millions.
If lot of retails are holding hundreds of thousands of shares (some are millions), then the float is becoming even smaller (just for argument sake).
Then if a lot of people convert to preferred, the float will be smaller in reality. If we get RM related news with a smaller float, the stock price could go parabolic.
Anyway, if the hundreds of millions monthly volume you indicated is not due to day trading multiple times, where are they coming from if the float is still 147/167m?
So what are you implying?
Thank you for that. I have a few hundred thousands as well.
I wouldn't stay away commenting on things if I see not right or i don't feel good about regardless of my position. Good luck, man.
@Investophile: You don't have to respond but curious if you have any position in PASO (long or short).
I may not agree with your most of the opinions but one thing i truly appreciate about you (and your post), no matter what, you stay civil. Thanks for that.
Disclosure: I have long position and reasonably large and will stay long until I hear something like RM breaks down (hope not).
PASO will make us a HERO or ZERO in next 3 months.
I am truly zealous to see some of our fellow board members are 200% confident about the outcome.
I know I am going to be in it until a resolution, no matter what. Wish I could be like them. My bad!
Best option to stay away from this board. Otherwise, it’s hard to stay calm, seriously.
What part you don't agree with? Feel free to comment, it's not bad to have a different take.
We are in it to win it and hope it succeeds.
From your (BBW) post history, you seem like a nice reasonable person. What's your take on the overall situation and price action? Would be great if you can make an unbiased/impartial comment disregarding your position, just to see an honest opinion.
No matter what we say here, doesn't change the market direction, you know it.
We should remember:
It is true that the CLX partners are big billion dollar companies but it is also true that they (UST and SIQ) created CLX Health JV so they are not directly involved in the process.
If CLX succeeds big time, they will be benefited but if CLX does not work out, it won't matter much for them. Big companies or big boys always try different ventures outside their big companies.
They created CLX JV (outside UST and SIQ) so it does not affect their reputation or business big time one way or the other.
If you and I create a JV SMNK Health, lol, if it does well, we will be happy, if it doesn't, it won't affect you and me that much.
-FOUR KEY FACTS-[color=red][/color]: Some thoughts
Thank you for presenting the key facts and sharing your thoughts. I felt to present some counter arguments as to why there are skepticism about RM despite the facts show otherwise.
-KEY FACT 1- The 28 May 2020 Letter Of Intent (LOI) between CLX and PASO is ACTIVE
This is true that LOI active and that's why we all the longs are here. We read (and reread 100 times) the extension PR and the reason for quoted below:
"On July 14, 2020 we were issued a request by CLX Health to extend the closing date of the merger to Q4 2020. As CLX Health continues to pursue and coordinate on its business opportunities, they had to defer completion of their due diligence of PASO. It is for this reason that CLX Health is unable to meet the agreed upon closing date and they are seeking an extension. We, Patient Access Solutions, are going to honor their request and grant the extension. We have no reason to believe that this request for an extension indicates that this transaction is any less likely to occur."
The above PR indicates CLX requested extension and deferred DD to pursue its business opportunities, nothing to do with bringing any other new partner on board.
Any reasonable (and professional) person knows you don't have to defer a set RM date to pursue other businesses. DD, DA and other merger related processes are done by lawyers/accountants and technical people. You don't have to defer a set closing date and then set a whole quarter Q4 (with no specific date like before, does not sound unusual?).
So real good intelligent people are skeptical despite there is an active LOI.
-KEY FACT 2- The CLX consortium (and their partnerships) have EVERYTHING to lose. That’s right, CLX is tied to PASO, there is no question about this.
UST Gloabl and SeriousIQ created a joint venture CLX Health to do this RM. They are not going directly with PASO, so if RM does not happen, their reputation is not going to be ruined, so they don't have much to lose. The big guys always try many different ventures, some become successful, some fails, no big deal. They keep doing that.
I don't think if PASO CLX merger doesn't happen, it will do much harm to UST and SIQ.
-KEY FACT 3-[color=red][/color] The Definitive Closing Agreement (DA) has a Q4 2020 (calendar year) target for ink. So, essentially from October-December 2020, we should expect to see some ink.
Sure, Q4 is the target and we are not in Q4 yet. So everything is good. But our worry is when time comes, they may do the same thing like they did on Jul 14 (extending from Jul 15 to Q4). Once someone fails to do something on a timely manner, would you have same amount of confidence like last time? Also the reason they showed for CLX request and extension, any reasonable (and intelligent) would think it's an excuse. If you're pursuing other businesses and you defer DD on PASO and ask for extension for almost 6 months, does it give you that much confidence?
I know many here speculates that CLX will bring more big guys like TRU and other on merger, that's clearly speculation. Even UST and SIQ created a shell CLX to merge with PASO without involving themselves and you think TRU going to involve? We don't see any indication from PASO or CLX PR. No reasonable person would believe that unless you see otherwise.
At the end of the day, PRs by PASO and CXL are the main sources of info, everything else is the speculation.
-KEY FACT 4- (The most important one of all)[color=red][/color] JG is who he is AND is part of the team actively orchestrating and facilitating the development of this deal…the deal that becomes increasing more impressive as the bread crumbs are slowly revealed. JG is highly respected in the medical and IT communities.
I agree JG has a fantastic bio. He represents both PASO and CLX one way or the other. If we assume he is the one to get it done alone, that will be big mistake. If that was the case, we would see it close on Jul 15. UST and SIQ will play a big role for RM to happen or not.
As for JG and his bio, everything does not work out just because someone has a good bio. John McCains bio was definitely stronger than Obama in 2008, did not work. Hilary Clinton's bio was definitely stronger than Trump, did not work. There are many many highly educated qualified people failed to do many businesses or other things. That does not mean they are any less qualified. Even if JG fails, nothing will stain his qualification and reputation.
My guess is something must have happened first time before Jul 15 and that triggered UST and SIQ to move from Jul 15. Don't know what and how complicated. First time definitely they agreed on big terms and conditions, so they agreed to close on Jul 15 in just 6 weeks and that was exciting.
Anyway, I am in it to see a conclusion one way or the other but if you're in the market for long, you know market is always right. We speculate things that are convenient for us (incl. myself). I am still hopeful but not that confident considering the overall circumstances. Let's see what happens in the coming months.
If you have a different take, pl. feel free to express. thanks.
OTCMARKET.com warning:
“Warning! This company has posted limited financial disclosure through the OTC Disclosure & News Service or is late in their filing obligations with the SEC.”
PASO did not file disclosures with 10Q. Yesterday, I thought they might have made some arrangements with OTC, which had something to do with RM. This warning shows, it’s a failure and I am sure it's on purpose to avoid disclosing something. The disclosure statement is a form. All you need to make some changes, if any. Otherwise, just file the last one. Also no one forgets to file because 10Q, 10K and other reporting requirements are standard. Being a pubco, you know it.
PASO’s behavior and it’s stock price action on the market are representative as to what’s really going on.
Man, it doesn’t give any comfort or confidence. If you're just hoping JG and someone else will take us over the line, don't. He is busy with his new child CLX more than anything else. If god forbid, things go south, he will simply put a tweet saying i tried but did not work out. Can you blame him? No, he never said, he will get the RM done. He says everything about CLX and we dream about PASO. So it will be our fault to misinterpret his messages.
Let's focus on PASO more than JG and CLX. Good luck!