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That used to work, but then Ackman bought Commoms and screwed up that narrative. Now there's more greedy hedge funds in Commons than Preferreds, and it gives Commons a bad name.
Ackman really ended up being a bad deal. The Admin should set an example with him and making sure he doesn't get a big pay day. $5-7 seems reasonable though.
Based on prices before everything was changed - Footprint reduction, reduced portfolios, UMBS/CSS platform, etc.
Basing earnings expectations on the past will not bode well for the current GSE structure.
Yeah, by Redeeming / Calling them at Par. There's no other way to cease trading
Should we only be discussing $100+ per share? We don't want to deter any suckers, I mean investors, from buying Commons.
Transparency should be first and foremost. Therefore, discussing Warrants and their effect on price is valid. So is Sr. Preferreds and any upcoming capital raises.
And don't forget, Commons could still get Cancelled
Does this also include Treble Damages? Once the Super Secret NWS Escrow Fund is returned to the GSEs, I would think an even higher price could be justified.
It might be a rounding error, but let's assume $200 should be a fair market price.
Where is your $100 number coming from? Can you share some revenue and EPS numbers for your conclusion?
I think fair price is around $5-7, and I've shown revenue and earnings numbers to support it. Fully diluted earnings are going to be fairly unattractive once the footprints are reduced, Jr. Preferreds are converted, and Warrants are exercised.
The possibility of Sr. Preferreds still being in the mix could drop that fair price another $3-4.
Or completely devastated. Just depends on the outcome. If the capital raises take place at $0.50 and you owned 1 million shares at an average price per share of $2, it's going to be a painful lesson as prices might never get back to $2.
As numerous others have stated, Commons are a lottery ticket. Even Preferreds are a bit of a gamble, but at least Courts have ruled in favor of their contract rights.
Like they say, if you're going to gamble, you're best to do it at the highest level of the capital structure (ie: Preferreds).
The capital raises will take care of that. I wouldn't worry about the "Bashers" because the pricing of the secondary offerings is going to do a number on the price
How do you protect your stock against Shorts? That sounds complicated. How will that benefit the price of $FNMA?
It's always good to buy when the price goes down. No matter what price! If the price is heading lower, you buy.
I've learned this over the last few months of investing.
There should always be buyers.
Gambling is an Art, and you've mastered it. All-in on Commons!? Holy smokes.
I can't wait to revisit your decision next year.
Did he discuss the Warrants and/or Sr. Preferreds?
Time and a half on holidays. Putting in work.
Not a recco
Is the Halt still in effect?
No buying interest in the market today. $FNMA dead?
So you're saying they can both lose 100%? OMG! That would be devastating for all GSE shareholders.
But are you also saying that Preferreds stand to lose more because their value is higher? I want to make sure I'm understanding you correctly.
Quite the contrary. Everyone expects Treasury to exercise them because they were part of the original deal.
Without Warrants, capital raises will occur at less than $0.50. Ouch!
The first of many more to come! $FNMA is going to continue to disappoint going forward, especially for those expecting 10x returns, or $100+ per share.
#RealTalk
Which lawsuit(s) challenge the Warrants? Really none of them do. The only one that does doesn't request for the Warrants to be cancelled.
#Gulp
It's in the vault with the SEC Letter and the NWS Escrow Fund.
Not worth the risk for ~125% up-side when Preferreds have more up-side with a whole lot less risk
It's equally possible to test $1.50 next week
Less than 10M volume. That's peanuts Charlie Brown.
Exciting! Can you do a 5-year and 10-year also since you're analysis is so thorough?
They do say, higher risk comes with higher reward. I'm wondering how many Common holders held through a 60% decline though. That would've been pretty nerve racking to sit through
Smells like a Pump & Dump to me. Familiar names referencing Warrants Cancelled, Sr. Preferreds Cancelled, etc.
Their tactics are easy to see through, but the Lemmings keep falling for them. Ahh well, live and let learn.
The punishment for Commons will be that much more fun to watch once the real Plan gets released.
Can you do a 1-year analysis for Commons/Preferreds? That would help put things into perspective rather than the day-to-day trading. Thanks in advance!
Is this the Plan!? We won? Game Over?
OMG!! We did it folks. Mission Accomplished. It only took the CFO asking for $100B back and that was it!
Congrats everyone, Life is Good!
What about the Warrants and Sr. Preferreds? Does the Treasury even have $98B to return to the GSEs or will they have to print new money?
Considering this isn't posted on Yahoo Finance Ultra Premium Plus Pro, I'm hesitant to believe this is factual.
Please share links to publications that verify this information.
Wow, so much volume! First hour is usually meaningless. There's no buyers left. The Pumpers better get Pumping, or this is going to drop like a rock.
I'm expecting lots more selling today. Nothing new was released yesterday -- reduced footprint, multiple guarantors, new Charters, etc.
And that doesn't even include the upcoming capital raises and the massive dilution Commons are soon to be battling.
Everything spells trouble for Commons. Sub-$2 by the end of February seems almost guaranteed
Didn't he have the Fair & Balanced Plan?
It wouldn't surprise me if Calabria had both Plans with him. He's probably been studying their details closely.
Both "Plans" do have a few strongly written bullet points.
Yep, Option #3 works best for the Preferreds. Whichever option makes Preferreds whole is all that matters, Commons be damned!
I'm just glad most Common shareholders aren't privy to the proxy ballot.
Commons won't get any reprieve from the lawsuits. Preferreds will be the only beneficiaries, and rightfully so since they're fronting the bills.
As a Preferred holder, I already voted to make sure the remedy in Collins only benefits Preferreds. I know other Preferred holders have also voted the same way
Weeks, maybe months. It's not a definitive time frame.
Expect a whole lot of waiting, just like GSE Reform
Footprint reduction, multiple guarantors, Charters for New Companies, etc. What was there to like if you're a Common shareholder!? Nothing at all.
Everything Calabria laid out today equals a significant reduction in future EPS. Considering the forthcoming dilution from Recap and the things above, earnings per share is going to be abysmal.
These topics have all been discussed here, frequently as well. But they were largely ignored by the "close your eyes and pray the Gov will do the right thing" crowd.
Today, we found out all those things are being strongly considered and are likely to be implemented.
The Lemmings are always slow.
Risky business indeed. The Market realizes this even if the Average Joe's don't yet. The Lemmings will figure it out soon enough -- they are usually slow to realize these things.
Lots of risk in the Commons.
Well at least the GSEs don't need more taxpayer money. Another bailout would've allowed Calabria to go straight to Receivership.
Sadly, the NWS remains and will continue for the foreseeable future.
Surprised $FNMA isn't sub-$2 yet, but I expect it to occur over the next few weeks.
NWS is happening again! No bueno amigos
Maybe they stop it next Quarter. Maybe next year!
Those are good expectations to have. High expectations lead to massive sell-offs. It's best to keep things realistic rather than be disappointed.
Same goes for the potential future value of Commons.