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This is pure speculation on my part. As I have no inside knowledge of this process. But based on the Portugese Newspaper article and putting it all together this is my guess as to what is transpiring.
I believe originally the JDA had slated ERHE to win operatorships in Blocks 2, 3, and 4. But when the JMC met there was disagreement over Block 4. Nigeria wanted ERHE/Noble and Sao Tome wanted Anadarko.
In order to resolve the problem a compromise was reached. (At least I hope so). ERHE/Pioneer win Block 2. But Block 3 operatorship would go to Anadarko. And Block 4 will go to ERHE/Noble.
My guess is since there was disagreement over Block 4. The Nigerians said ok, we will instead put Anadarko as operator of Block 3 if ERHE/Noble can be operators in Block 4.
So in essence ERHE gets operatorship of Block 4 after all, but loses operatorship of Block 3 in the process. Its called a trade-off.
Then the JDA makes Anadarko, Noble, and Pioneer all happy as each will have won operatoships.
Now the oil ministers from Sao Tome apparently just have to give their stamp of approval as do the Presidents.
Thats my take on ths situation. ALL IMHO.
(ERHE along side Pioneer, Anadarko, and Noble would look very good and will provide some nice PR's.)
One thing which should be of concern is the largest oil companies are having trouble replacing reserves. If you look at their first qtr production, most of them have declining production. This tells you the true story about oil and where it is headed.
The only way the larger oil companies can increase production is through acquisition and merger.
And alot of smaller oil companies were driven out of business when oil prices dropped significantly. So I would have to disagree with your claim that oil companies can make money at any price. That just isnt the case.
The American Consumer has been spoiled. Oil is nowhere near as expensive as it was in the 1970's, especially after being adjusted for inflation. Oil should actually be much higher and IMHO probably will be.
The largest and easiest oil fields have already been found. And while there is still probably plenty of oil out there, it is definitely in locations which are more difficult to get to. So yes the oil is there but it is becoming increasingly more expensive to find. The low hanging fruit has already been found.
I see a bull run continuing in oil stocks because the average investor has not piled into the sector yet. Ask your neighbors and they couldnt tell you the first thing about oil stocks. This is not like tech in the late 1990's where every Tom, Dick, and Harry knew about tech stocks and hence came the dotcom bubble. In fact if you watch shows like Mad Money, the people who call in are still hung up on tech. Its almost comical to watch. They havent figured out the 1990's are gone. They went out with Bill Clinton and Monica Lewinsky.
I disagree. This is a complex negotiation and procedure and things are going on behind the scenes which are all part of due process.
So my advice is we should stay out of it. Dont jeopardize what we have by angering those in the decision making process. Sometimes it's better to not be heard and to let things play out.
For all we know the JMC might be waiting to hear back from the winning companies. Then they will announce the award winners. Why would they announce them before hand? Use some common sense Joe and stop trying to stir things up.
It aint the 1960's anymore.
Yeah Balance Builder is administering a good ole fashioned butt kickin over on RB.
I have been LMBO all night.........
ROTFLMBO
"Interpretation carried out by WesternGeco has enabled the identification of 56 prospective structures within Blocks 1 to 9 in the JDZ, of which 17 were defined as prospects and 39 as leads. WesternGeco used reservoir parameters similar to those known from nearby fields in Nigeria and Equatorial Guinea. Combined recoverable reserves potential of the 17 prospects was estimated by WesternGeco to be 14.4 billion barrels of oil. The scope of the WesternGeco report was to interpret and map seismic data, highlight prospectivity and calculate volumetrics."
1) Western Geco has estimated recoverable reserves of 14 Billion barrels of oil in the nine blocks in the JDZ.
2) This estimate was based on only 17 structures of the 56 total structures that were identified in the 9 blocks.
3) So in all likelihood this was a conservative estimate as it didnt take into account the other 39 structures within the 9 blocks.
4) As a result of the huge estimated recoverable reserves in the JDZ signature bonus bids on these blocks were at a record high level.
5) So obviously the various companies agree with Western Geco and believe there is alot of oil in the JDZ.
6) ERHE also has rights in the Sao Tome EEZ which are supposedly just as prolific.
Its answer A. He is going off the deep end. In all reality Joe is just trying to stir things up so people talk about his website. Controversy sells. How do you think Madonna sold so many albums back in the day.
Joe is just trying to make controversial comments so more people visit his website and hence more people click on his ads.
Nothing more nothing less.
Or maybe the winning companies were notified and they have two weeks to accept the awards upon which time there will be an awards ceremony and a press release.
Regardless I really need to find a new hobby. This waiting around week in and week out is really the pits. I spend my weekends counting the minutes until the weekdays and my weekdays counting the minutes until awards.
I wish they would get this damn thing over with.
Maybe George Bush and the US Government is planning on buying out ERHC. ERHC shares will be a required part of everyones social security.
I highly doubt that ERHE is the topic that is holding things up with the JMC. Remember, we are talking about 5 different blocks being awarded here and there are many fine details that need to be resolved. I just hope they continue to meet today and finish things up at this meeting. Remember Sam said this meeting might last 4 or 5 days. He obviously was correct with that assessment.
"Africa is another winner. It's got 87 billion barrels of proven reserves and estimated undiscovered reserves of 125 billion, mainly in West Africa. Central and South America have roughly the same, but, as in Russia, many are in prohibitively remote areas."
(How is that for a great quote from the last article? Hey have any of you heard anything about their being some oil in West Africa?? We are ahead of the curve my friends.)
Global competition for future energy supplies heats up By Kevin G. Hall, Knight Ridder Newspapers
2 hours, 54 minutes ago
WASHINGTON - Soaring demand for crude oil in China, India and other developing nations has set off a scramble to secure future energy supplies that could undermine the economic and national security of the United States.
The United States, Europe and Japan increasingly will be forced to compete with developing nations, especially China and India, the world's two fastest growing major economies, which comprise more than a third of the world's population.
"The center of gravity in world oil is shifting," said Daniel Yergin, the chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates and an author of "The Prize," an award-winning history of oil.
"Last year, Asia consumed more oil than North America," Yergin said. He predicts an oil supply shift, too, as Africa, Russia and former Soviet republics compete with the Middle East to fill the growing demand for oil.
The developing world's growing appetite for oil is one reason gasoline prices have shot up for Americans. Over time, these emerging economies will also shape not just global oil flows and prices but also world events, said Anne Korin, the co-director of the Washington-based Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, an energy security think tank.
"A third of humanity doesn't want to ride bikes anymore," she said. "That has profound geopolitical implications."
China and India already have moved aggressively to strengthen their relations with two oil-rich countries - Sudan and Iran - undermining U.S. sanctions against Sudan's regime and undercutting U.S. efforts to halt Iran's nuclear ambitions.
"We are in a situation right now where the energy consumption of the developing world is having an impact on the foreign policy options of the United States," said Korin.
For now, the United States remains well positioned, at least when it comes to energy supplies. The proven reserves in the Middle East make it the expected primary global supplier of crude oil. Iraq, where the United States has forcefully established a beachhead, has proven oil reserves of between 78 and 112 billion barrels.
But political instability, increased terrorism and the spread of fundamentalist Islam make it unlikely that today's oil-production map will look the same 20 years from now.
What's clearly changing is demand. The Paris-based International Energy Agency, a research arm of the world's most developed nations, projected last year that oil demand will grow by 45 million barrels a day to 120 million barrels a day by 2030. More than $3 trillion will be invested to find and produce that oil, and more than half of that investment will serve the needs of emerging economies.
The scramble to find and develop new oil fields and natural gas wells will occur in places such as eastern Siberia and West Africa, as hungry nations hedge their bets should leading producers such as Saudi Arabia or Iraq falter.
"You need energy to develop an economy, so there's a great strategic value in securing energy assets," said Antoine Halff, an oil expert with the risk-management company Eurasia Group in New York.
One likely winner is Russia, along with some of the now independent states that formerly made up the Soviet Union. They have proven reserves of 78 billion barrels but the U.S. Geological Survey estimates that there may be 171 billion barrels of estimated undiscovered oil in the region.
"Russia is virtually unexplored. Their potential is enormous," said Gary Swindell, an independent petroleum engineer in Dallas whose business is estimating reserves.
Africa is another winner. It's got 87 billion barrels of proven reserves and estimated undiscovered reserves of 125 billion, mainly in West Africa. Central and South America have roughly the same, but, as in Russia, many are in prohibitively remote areas.
Elsewhere in the Western Hemisphere, Canada and Mexico are expected to remain the second and third largest U.S. oil suppliers. But smaller oil players are courting Washington's competitors.
In Venezuela, the fourth largest U.S. oil supplier, President Hugo Chavez, a self-described protege of Cuban dictator Fidel Castro, is trying to rewrite concessions to U.S. oil companies and has invited China and India to participate in oil exploration. Ecuador and Colombia are negotiating oil deals with China, too.
China, the world's fastest-growing economy, is also making heavy diplomatic and energy investments in Africa. It needs to: China is projected to consume within 20 years what the U.S. consumes today - 21 million barrels a day.
Although China is the world's second largest oil consumer after the United States, it's only the fifth largest importer because of its own oil reserves. That's changing, however, because China is rapidly exhausting wells in Manchuria and the South China Sea. Soon its reliance on foreign oil will rival America's.
China's President Hu Jintao in mid-April cemented a "strategic" partnership with Nigeria during a state visit to Beijing by President Olusegun Obasanjo. Nigeria is West Africa's biggest producer and a major U.S. supplier. China's already trading development loans for energy development participation in Chad, Gabon and Angola.
In Sudan, China ignored evidence of genocide in the country's long-running civil war to entrench itself. It also effectively voided unilateral U.S. sanctions imposed because Sudan sheltered Osama bin Laden before he moved on to Afghanistan.
Sudan's widely reported human rights violations also sparked protests in Canada and Sweden that drove oil companies from those countries out of Sudan in 2002 and 2003. China, which now gets as much as 10 percent of its imported oil from Sudan, has repeatedly blocked U.N. efforts to impose anti-genocide sanctions against its trading partner.
Data from the federal Energy Information Administration help explain China's moves. The EIA predicts that China will import about two-thirds of the oil it consumes by 2025, up from the current figure of one third.
India, which has almost none of its own oil, is equally hungry. The EIA expects India to more than double its oil consumption to 5.3 million barrels a day by 2025.
Both China and India are investing billions in Iran despite President Bush's attempt to isolate the Persian Gulf nation because of its nuclear ambitions. The money is a lifeline for the world's fourth biggest oil producer, which also sits atop the world's second largest natural gas reserves. Both are off limits to U.S. companies.
Iran - already China's largest oil supplier - earlier this year signed long-term oil and natural gas contracts worth tens of billions of dollars with both China and India. Iran gave India's state oil company a 20-percent ownership stake in the development of a key Iranian oil field.
In strictly economic terms, it doesn't hurt the United States when developing countries promote oil drilling, extraction and production. That increases world supply, slakes demand and drives down prices. But access to ample energy is a prerequisite to world power.
That's a lesson not lost on Russia, the world's second largest exporter of crude oil and holder of the world's largest reserves of natural gas. The United States, Europe, India and China have each carved out stakes in Russia's energy future, while, for its part, Russia has sought to control strategic pipelines for oil and natural gas flowing from or through former Soviet republics.
President Bush travels to Russia in early May and is expected to lobby President Vladimir Putin for a multi-billion dollar pipeline deal to take natural gas to the Russian seaport of Murmansk. There, it would be liquefied and transported for sale in the United States.
Putin seems intent on using Russia's energy supplies to boost his influence at home and abroad. He's meddled in neighboring countries like the Ukraine and Georgia in hopes of securing greater control over how oil flows in and out of the region. And he has broken apart the country's largest private oil company, OAO Yukos, which had ties big U.S. oil interests, and is creating a new and massive state oil company from the ruins.
Putin has been friendliest to Western Europe, which now buys from Russia about a quarter of the natural gas it uses to fuel power plants and factories.
Russia's leader favors Western Europe because the dependency it promotes restores some of the international influence that Moscow lost following the collapse of the Soviet Union, said Clifford Gaddy, an expert on the Russian economy at the Brookings Institution.
****UPDATE****
Just spoke with Sam Dimka. JMC is meeting and he said that ALL 5 BLOCKS WILL BE AWARDED. I Asked him if he was sure of this and he said "Of course" as if I was stupid or something. LOL. He said that meetings were almost over and that JDA would PR results as soon as they can. NEWS SOON!!!!
From Orangeandwhite on RB. Thank you Mark.
Your right. ERHE should be a beacon of light in the oil sector. A great place to park your money as insurance for your other oil stocks which are damaged by a temporary drop in oil prices.
Oil stocks getting hammered today early. ERHE is a good place to park your profits from your other oil companies as they fall today.
Gigwoof, I didnt mean anyone on this board. Plus take all of my comments this week with a grain of salt. Im feeling a bit under the weather and am a bit ornery lol.
I told you so......
People predicting awards Monday or Tuesday were just plain foolish and irresponsible. First of all the press release clearly stated that the JMC would meet, then they would notify the winning companies, then the companies would have two weeks to make a decision on whether they accept the awards. What is so hard to understand about that? Its not rocket science.
Why would the JMC announce awards to the general public before they have received word from the winning companies? It wouldnt make any sense to do that. We dont even know if the JMC has decided who has won yet. Yet some clowns were running around saying awards on Monday or Tuesday. They are worse than the bashers.
So people needlessly got their hopes up and are now dissapointed. With this stock you must always understand that timelines will be a difficult thing to predict. So to do so is just plain foolish. Always expect longer than what you think and you will be fine.
ERHE has alot going for it. It doesnt need for timelines to be pumped. It can stand on its own two feet.
I cant respond to personal emails as I am not a member here. I am just an individual investor anyway. I dont have any connections in this process.
Having said that, I dont think awards are anywhere near priced in. I dont really have an opinion on actual price projections because that is too difficult to predict. There have been so many delays and the process has been so drawn out that the price has been held down to some degree until actual awards are made IMO. Its hard to say where the price will go. I am holding long well beyond awards. I might trade a small percentage if awards come and the price goes high enough. But for the most part I will be around for quite some time. At least through EEZ announcements but probably longer.
P.S. I dont think there will be an award announcement to the public next week. I think it is still a few weeks away IMO. The winning companies will be notified next week then they have two weeks to accept the award. After the awards are accepted then there will be a formal announcement.
Bottom line: Dont be surpised if there is no award announcement next week.
The Sao Tome EEZ is where ERHE holds additional percentages, not the Nigerian EEZ. The Sao Tome EEZ is a zone that is seperate from the Joint Development Zone (JDZ). The JDZ is the deepwater zone that is jointly owned by Nigeria and Sao Tome and is the one that is currently being auctioned. The Sao Tome EEZ is the deepwater zone that is owned exclusively by the county Sao Tome. The Sao Tome auction will probably get under way later this year.
ERHE's rights via a treaty are enormous in the Sao Tome EEZ and IMHO have not even been priced into the stock yet. ERHE has the following rights in the Sao Tome EEZ:
100% block (4th selection in the zone)
100% block (5th selection in the zone)
15% block
15% block
So in sum ERHE has rights in 4 blocks in the Sao Tome EEZ. They will have two 100% blocks and two 15% blocks. They get the 4th and 5th pick overall in the Sao Tome EEZ. And these picks are signature bonus free. So these rights are enormous. Obviously they will be operators of the two one hundred percent blocks and probably will partner with some mid tiers to develop the blocks and carry some of the costs.
EEL has the first two picks in the EEZ. Then someone else has the third. Then ERHE has the 4th and 5th picks. The auction for the rest of the blocks will occur after these selections are made. The President of Sao Tome said they will begin this process this year. Right now EEL is in the process of reviewing the 2D and 3d seismic so they can make their first two selections.
The Sao Tome EEZ is supposedly just as prolific as the Joint Development Zone.
If that is in fact the case then I can assure you IMO ERHE has nothing to do with it. ERHE is not a pump and dump operation. Their press releases are few and far between. They have been mum during this whole process.
They are not one of these companies that issues a "hyped up" press release every other day. They have remained silent and I believe that was the correct approach. Especially prior to awards. After awards are made I would expect that to change and I would expect ERHE to be more forthcoming with PR's and future information.
As far as outside manipulation who knows? The chart looks very orderly and for the most part the price has moved up and down in an orderly fashion. The only exception I can think of was the big drop last Friday. I assumed that was one large institutional seller that was trying to liquidate their shares and that is what accounted for the price drop.
The impact of next week's meeting is that the Joint Ministerial Council (JMC) which is comprised of delegates from Sao Tome and Nigeria will be meeting to sign off on the final award recommendations and percentages that were made by the Joint Development Authority (JDA). According to the JDA winning companies will be notified next week. Then they have two weeks to accept the block award. They more than likely will accept well before the two week deadline and some are believed to have accepted their awards already (although that has not been verified.)
Many are speculating that the public will also be notified next week as to which companies won blocks awards. Im not sure if that will occur but the winning companies will be notified so it is only a matter of time before block awards are announced to the general public. I would imagine there will be a formal ceremony to announce the winners to the general public and the press. Could that happen next week? Quite possibly.
ERHE is in line to receive significant percentages in these blocks when awards are announced. In addition they have bid for additional percentages and operatorships (with Noble and Pioneer) over and above their treaty percentages. If ERHE were to win operatorships that would be quite a bonus.
So in sum, the purpose of next weeks meeting is so the Joint Ministerial Council can put their final stamp of approval on block awards and then they will notify the winning companies that they won and what percentage in a given block that they won.
I believe a total of 26 different companies bid on these 5 blocks. Record signature bonuses were offered for the rights to win percentages in these blocks. ERHE's rights are primarily signature bonus free. SO ERHE's rights are very valuable. For example, I believe the top signature bonus offered for Block 4 was $170 million just to win rights to drill on that block.
This has been a hotly contested and lengthy process so next weeks meetings will confirm that things are finally drawing to a conclusion.
Bob when other oil companies that are involved in the process win awards and start putting out PR's then the tone will change. Companies like Pioneer, Devon, Noble, Anadarko etc, will all be putting out positive PR's at the same time and that will carry alot of weight. They are very well respected companies. The problem is everyone is on mute until awards.
The only reason why Exxon is getting any mention right now is because they are the only ones that can say anything at this point. Once awards are announced that will all change. There will be plenty of positive PR after the awards. Dont forget, Exxon and Chevron are in Block 1 so its not like they left the JDZ entirely.
As you know Exxon is just trying to save face by attempting to talk down the importance of the region. They wouldnt have made a last ditch effort and sent top executives to Abuja in a last ditch effort to win an operatorship if they thought the region didnt hold any promise.
In addition IMO they will probably try to buy out some of these companies that have won awards. That will be their ticket into the JDZ. So naturally they will try to talk down the prospects so they can buy these other companies on the cheap.
ERHE will be valued based on reserves. ERHE will be in the exploration phase not the exploitation phase. ERHE has assets that they will leverage to minimize any costs. Here are the relevant points.
1) Western Geco has estimated recoverable reserves of 14 Billion barrels of oil in the nine blocks in the JDZ.
2) This estimate was based on only 17 structures of the 56 total structures that were identified in the 9 blocks.
3) So in all likelihood this was a conservative estimate as it didnt take into account the other 39 structures within the 9 blocks.
4) As a result of the huge estimated recoverable reserves in the JDZ signature bonus bids on these blocks were at a record high level.
5) So obviously the various companies agree with Western Geco and believe there is alot of oil in the JDZ.
6) ERHE also has rights in the Sao Tome EEZ which are supposedly just as prolific.
Who cares if there hasnt been a well drilled in the JDZ yet? What is the point? These are the main points:
1) Western Geco has estimated recoverable reserves of 14 Billion barrels of oil in the nine blocks in the JDZ.
2) This estimate was based on only 17 structures of the 56 total structures that were identified in the 9 blocks.
3) So in all likelihood this was a conservative estimate as it didnt take into account the other 39 structures within the 9 blocks.
4) As a result of the huge estimated recoverable reserves in the JDZ signature bonus bids on these blocks were at a record high level.
5) So obviously the various companies agree with Western Geco and believe there is alot of oil in the JDZ.
6) ERHE also has rights in the Sao Tome EEZ which are supposedly just as prolific.
Hope this helps clarify things. I know you are aware of all this balance.
Reserves are what will drive the share price. The drill bit will begin turning this year. First oil discovery will make the stock price go through the roof. We will be in an exploration phase. Exploitation will come later.
I agree with stockhocker completely. ERHE is a must have stock to own but timelines are difficult to predict.
By: stockhocker70
20 Apr 2005, 06:52 PM EDT
Msg. 26299 of 26301
(This msg. is a reply to 26294 by orangeandwhite0.)
Jump to msg. #
If there's anything we should all learn from the last few years, it's that nothing happens when we expect it to, even when they tell us the date is "hard and fast", or "immediately", or that it's something they want done "as soon as possible".
In fact, it's always much later than the wildest nightmare of a delay that you might imagine. So, if there is a possibility of something happening later rather then sooner, I'll bet on after later.
I am so fed up with missed dates and broken promises, that I don't care if awards happen next week or not and I certainly don't expect anyone to do what they say they'll do when they say they will do it - and as of today, no one has even given a date for the actual awards.
So, to my friends and family that I have brought into this and repeatedly told our time is near, I say this: "I don't know when the awards are coming. I think there may be a meeting next week which could setup the awards process, but even that is questionable. As for when the public will know the results, I can only say sometime after this meeting. Don't ask me for anything more than that because I cannot give it."
Our share price is in the crapper because no one has any faith that anyone can do anything on any schedule. It's a little hard to get excited about something when it's so open-ended, and that is exactly what this process is. It goes on and on and on adnauseam.
I have quit expecting anything and have a hard time getting excited even when I think things are moving. That being said, I am holding what I have and adding, because as Balance always says, "One cannot have enough of this stock". I still believe that is true.
The winners have known for months, but what difference does that make? If there's a deadline, count on it being sometime after that deadline.
So to answer your question... "Yes, it's a deadline".
Maybe announcements will be next week after all.
By: swingingk
20 Apr 2005, 12:01 PM EDT
Msg. 26011 of 26014
Jump to msg. #
********UPDATE********
As most of you are all ready aware the JDA has been meeting & confirming Block % & signature $$ due per award recipient. Several of my key people tell me the recipients are more excited than he imagined, & would like to PR these awards for fiscal Q-2-3 allocations. PXD & NBL have already responded to JDA, as have most of the notified block winners. Look for PR soooooooon....From all of the above...
ERHC has the following rights in the Sao Tome EEZ which is seperate from the current rights they hold in the JDZ:
100% block 4th selection (this is signature bonus free)
100% block 5th selection (this is signature bonus free)
plus two 15% blocks
I believe it is EEL who has the first two selections in the Sao Tome EEZ so ERHE has to wait for them to select their two blocks. Then the 3rd choice goes to the govt of Sao Tome. And the 4th and 5th selections go to ERHE. (Kind of like the NFL draft).
The president of Sao Tome said in a february article that they hope to start the Sao Tome EEZ bidding process this year. So the bidding process would occur after EEL and ERHE make their selections. That is why many are assuming that ERHE will make their selections this year. In addition, I believe EEL has already acquired 3D data so they are already proceeding ahead.
Nice post balance. I too agree that there is a very strong possibility that ERHC will leverage their vast quantity of assets in the EEZ to reduce their costs in the JDZ. It only stands to reason. I wouldnt be surpised if Noble and Pioneer will be their partners in the Sao Tome EEZ.
As for a public award announcement next week. I will stand by my earlier comments. I dont see it. The winning companies will have to be notified and then they must respond back with a yea or nea. Only after the companies have responded back to the JMC will there be any sort of public award announcement. That is a few weeks away IMHO.
Of course if the companies respond quickly then maybe there will be an announcement next week.
Not that you asked me but I am hoping for more than $3 to $5 by years end. I am expecting another turbo boost to share price towards the end of the year after ERHE announces their selections of two 100% blocks in the Sao Tome EEZ. I cant wait to hear who are partners will be. That will be a truly exciting time. The EEZ isnt even priced into the stock yet.
Mark regardless of the outcomes of this particular issue, thanks for your updates. They are greatly appreciated. Thanks for doing the leg work for the rest of us lazy bums lol.
Im just trying to figure out what days to take as vacation days. I want to be at the computer all day on the day the awards are announced.
So in Round 1 the JMC notified the companies who won and immediately put out a press release before the companies formally excepted?
I dont see how or why the JMC would do that?
What if the JMC announced the winners to the public and then one of the winners in the block decided they did not want in? Then the JMC would have egg on their face.
That's why I think the JMC has to wait until they notfiy the winning companies and then wait until they have heard back from those companies before they can issue a press release.
Maybe it wont take the full two weeks for the winning companies to respond back to the JMC. In that case the press release will be sooner.
This is all IMO.
Here is an opinion counter to mine from RB. Yemen is very knowledgable but tends to get a bit too excitable. Here is his take.
By: Yemenoil
19 Apr 2005, 05:35 PM EDT
Msg. 25809 of 25809
Jump to msg. #
The JMC meets on this Monday AM. They are several hours before us. Could mean a massive gapper on Monday morning and official awards news should be out either Monday, Tuesday or Weds! Of course, then Pioneer/Devon/Noble and ERHE will also announce their winning thru their own PR's! This is gonna be great!
The key question now is will there be an award announcement to the public next week? Everything else has already determined.
I say NO there will not be. Next week the various winners will be notified and then they have two weeks to decide whether they want in the blocks. After all responses are recieved then a formal awards ceremony will be announced.
My guess is the awards will be announced to the public the second or third week of May.
However, Im guessing that once the various awards are shown to the companies there will be some leaks and volume and price should move up nicely in advance of an actual awards announcements. Assuming, of course, that ERHE wins some significant percentages.
**Corrected DJ News Article**
19 Apr 2005 06:45 ET DJ Sao Tomean-Nigerian Block Awards Made Next Week -Official
ABUJA (Dow Jones)--Block awards for the current licensing round for the Sao Tomean-Nigerian Joint Development Zone will be made next week, a Sao Tomean official has told Dow Jones Newswires.
Carlos Gomes, Sao Tome's chief representative on the two countries' Joint Exploration Authority, said the awards will be made next week, after the Joint Ministerial Council meeting on Apr. 25. Gomes was speaking on the sidelines of the Nigerian Oil and Gas Conference in Abuja.
"Companies will be given two weeks to accept or reject the awards," said Gomes. "When they accept offers, we will start negotiations."
Gomes denied suggestions that the authorities operating the licensing round were unhappy with ExxonMobil's (XOM) recent decision not to exercise its preferentials right in the JDZ.
"We are not disappointed with that at all," he said.
The licensing round process for the JDZ, a jointly-held maritime region between Nigeria and Sao Tome and Principe, has been ongoing since April 2003. The licensing round itself closed on Dec. 15 2004, with 26 bids from 23 companies being received for the five JDZ oil and gas blocks on offer, but the block awards have met with continual delays.
-By Vincent Nwanma, Dow Jones Newswires; +234-1-585-0849; vinwanma@beta.linkserve.com
(Norval Scott in London also contributed to this story.)
Corrected April 19, 2005 08:46 ET (1246GMT)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 19, 2005 06:45 ET (10:45 GMT)
19 Apr 2005 08:44 ET DJ CORRECT: Sao Tome-Nigeria Block Awards For Current Round
This is great news but I have one question. Does this mean that we have to wait another 2 weeks for the actual announcement of awards made to be made to the general public?
It sounds like it to me.....
Oh well such is life. Otherwise its great news that puts much of the jibberish and nonsense over the last 2 trading days to rest.
Sao Tomean-Nigerian Block Awards Made Next Week -Official
ABUJA (Dow Jones)--Block awards for the first-ever licensing round for the Sao Tomean-Nigerian Joint Development Zone will be made next week, a Sao Tomean official has told Dow Jones Newswires.
Carlos Gomes, Sao Tome's chief representative on the two countries' Joint Exploration Authority, said the awards will be made next week, after the Joint Ministerial Council meeting on Apr. 25. Gomes was speaking on the sidelines of the Nigerian Oil and Gas Conference in Abuja.
"Companies will be given two weeks to accept or reject the awards," said Gomes. "When they accept offers, we will start negotiations."
Gomes denied suggestions that the authorities operating the licensing round were unhappy with ExxonMobil's (XOM) recent decision not to exercise its preferentials right in the JDZ.
"We are not disappointed with that at all," he said.
The licensing round process for the JDZ, a jointly-held maritime region between Nigeria and Sao Tome and Principe, has been ongoing since April 2003. The licensing round itself closed on Dec. 15 2004, with 26 bids from 23 companies being received for the five JDZ oil and gas blocks on offer, but the block awards have met with continual delays.
-By Vincent Nwanma, Dow Jones Newswires; +234-1-585-0849; vinwanma@beta.linkserve.com
(Norval Scott in London also contributed to this story.)
Gigwoof, I think that is a bit strong. I think the JDA is trying to follow the letter of the law and do things by the book. And they are very deliberate in their actions. (I guess that is the understatement of the decade lol). But we are dealing with African culture and they follow a different timeline than we do. In addition, when your dealing with 2 different countries, 26 different oil companies, politics, billions of dollars at stake etc etc it probably is better to move slow.
This is a very complicated matter so unfortunately things takes time. It is much more complicated than any of us realize.
Confirmation from Orangeandwhite from RB;
CONFIRMATION****
Called Secretary of JDA to confirm that XOM is out of round 2. He said they cannot exercise their rights in RD 2. XOM already made their decision. Call yourself
011 234 9 524 1064. GEEEEEZ!!!! Why are people on this board making things so difficult and confusing.