is... a buy and hold investor of dividend US and Canadian stocks
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almost in that .10 - .20 range....
thanks. done and fixed.
seems to me that my messages have been lost.. I only have 1 page of PMs... what am I doing wrong? there is no Previous button to hit that I can see...
This one is even better. The Money Flow Indicator is Money flow normalized between 20 and 80 like the RSI is. This indicator clearly predicts price movement, which is rare for Indicators. Usually they are quite useless, contrary to the many authors who make lots of money publishing books on TA which contend that understanding indicators is the key to wealth.
Chart of UWKI and Money Flow indicator for 6 mo. Interesting how this indicator almost always predicts price movement. If it ever shows an uptick I will be the first to tell you.
Actually I have no concerns, because I am not in.. for me it is all just interesting discussion. Just chatting really...
only at the gas bar! lol..
took me 2 days to think of that.. just now on the way home from work. Every once in awhile I am capable of a good one..
baaa haaaa ..
They have no LT debt, according to release financials. 1.2 in ST liabilities (A/P).
About the only way of cost-cutting in high tech is letting people go. Looking at their SG&A it is lots of salaries and consulting fees. They are paying s/w consultants to develop s/w. If a company is in financial trouble one of the first things they do is cut the contractors. Cannot quite understand why they are paying consultants. Does not make sense. And the R&D expense is way too low. There are two critical resources in a high tech company; developers and salesmen. Everybody else is O/H to some extent.
The fact that they have revenue-generating restaurants is a powerful competitive advantage for them. Those restaurants also double as test labs.... very cool.
I would buy if they got to that range. When/if they became a self-supporting restaurant business with the hope of becoming a software company. Currently, I think they are dreaming... pulling the wool over our eyes. I would like to see canges... cost-cutting.
I would think that if they got to that range they would become a takeover target. Another poster, Greenband, explained the rules regarding a potential takeover. It wold be a boon for investors... That is something that I could foresee happening after this credit crisis is over.
Greenband's post:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=32591782
Acquisition
uWink is thinly traded and closely held - a relatively few number of shareholders control a large percentage of the stock.
Any attempt to buy a controlling stake would result in the stock price rocketing up. An entity would also have to file a SEC report once their stake was > 5% stating their intent. This prevents someone for surreptitiously acquiring a controlling stake "under the radar"
Funny thing is, yes that is exactly what I expect. It seems as if these things are sadly predictable. Not sure why, but the market does not seem to be able to immediately price the true value of a stock. Trends are what they are because companies are seemingly unable to change their financial situation easily, and uWink is no exception. From the outside looking in, it seems easy.. just let some folks go.. cut some fat, become profitable. For whatever reason, the people running these places do not seem to be able to do that. So yes, that is exactly what I expect. Is it a surprise? I don't know. I was surprised when I looked at the last financials and saw; lower sales, no cost control, higher expenses, and poor use of the proceeds of the offering. So, I believe that unless things change, the trend will not change. I do not see how things have changed. The same players are still there, making the same money.. what has changed to change the outcome?
I have see this too many times. Take for example Lyrtech (LTK- Canadian Venture Exchange). They seemed like a good deal at .07 last year. I did not look at it closely enough. They got served a demand note from their bank in January. Stock plummeted to .005. They are actually profitable, barely, they just have financial problems. How does management solve the problem? Do a 1:15 R/S. It came out at .15 after the split (was at .01). Now it is at .05. R/S are the oldest trick in the book for fixing difficult problems. Do a R/S and make an offering = printing money and screwing investors. BS.
My point? Trends are hard to reverse, especially when it is financial.... uWink has done nothing to pull it out except for getting 4 terminals in a restaurant in Miami on a trial basis. Therefore I see their trend continuing.
A company that has pulled out of this? Someone on this board recommended VBDG to me. Vertical Branding. Nice pick, but they achieved what they did through cost-cutting. Does not excite me. Low revenue growth. And when they make some money,they will just have to hire back... it is difficult to pull out of this. It costs money too (severance packages). Sends the wrong signal, pulling the stock down.
This is especially true of software companies. The root problem is the inability to estimate. Ever ask a programmer how long it will take to write (fully write, develop, test, debug, document, etc) a piece of code? Ever gotten an accurate answer? Because of that root cause, software companies are badly managed. That is right I am making that flat statement. If management = the ability to forecast costs, revenues, and plan things so that the enterprise makes money, software managers are horrible. They are egotistical, greedy, detail-oriented, technically-oriented and self-serving. I am making a general statement about software companies, not about uWink. I do not know enough. But they are a software company, so without knowing any better I apply the same logic to them. For that reason I tend to stay away from software companies as an investment.
Raw made a post some time back that the leadership he saw at the HH opening were tight-lipped at first then started talking about these amazing opportunities facing uWink after they had a few drinks. My reaction? They were tight-lipped because things were not working out. Once the booze started flowing they started BS'ing like they always do. To protect their job in a 1-2year time frame. That is about how long BS lasts.
I work in an industrial company now. I do Project Management/ Cost Control. I manage $10M projects, making sure we meet Cost and Schedule. We know within 5% how much time and money it is going to take to do something and have well-defined ROI criteria for a project. We know how much money we will make next year. Software companies, with all the egos and BS forecasts, have no idea. Generally, not uWink specifically. But I have to apply that preconceived notion, unless I met them personally and decided differently.
That is all I got...
this required a lengthier than usual response. I must collect my thoughts....
what is the "bottom" for uWink? That is an often misused word. In the case of a company that is "losing money", it can be almost nothing, then they do a R/S and lo and behold the stock immediately finds a new bottom.. lol. Check out LTK Lyrtech (Canadian Venture Exchange). .01 ==> .15 (1/15 R/S) ==> .05. Debt is a killer thrown in the mix... really kills it.
In the case of uWink I think the "bottom" has yet to happen, but we are close. They are expending their cash reserves, and unless something changes some things will have to happen (cost-cutting) which usually depress the stock price, along with the shareholders. That would be the bottom. Or else something nice happens, which is a different story. I would look to mid-Nov financials as the bottom.
Beyond that, it gets interesting. There are some positive things about uWink. First of all, they have no debt. Secondly, they have revenue-producing diversified income streams.. I would say if they get down to .10 - .20.. something positive must happen. If someone tries to take them over, the bidding war would be a boon to shareholders.. so that is the bottom, A buying op.
I would not call it pumping, but that is the best I can do.
lol.. Exposed!! EOM.
Yes i have missed you... but I do find Raw's graphic compelling.. I think he makes a good point. The one thing I don't believe is that this stock can maintain any kind of upward direction.. and that is not the market. We will see in the coming month. Wen financials are released in November alot of questions will be answered.
this stock remains at roughly the same price level, but the Money Flow Indicator goes up, as per usual.. I think that must be because it is not electronically traded with consistent rules... rather than by humans that set prices. MM? Interesting...
cool.. I find it hard not to believe that this would boost the stock at some point.
uwink has very rarely actually moved upward consistently over any period of time. The best it can do is level off..
the only time it did that is when the CFO decided to buy..
for that reason alone I don't think it will move up with the market..
let's see if it comes up when the market comes up... I am guessing not... but your graphic is compelling.
Wait until Fanny (Robert) gets back in our little clubhouse...
what the article does not clearly say is that on average, men play video games far more than women do. You kind of have to read between the lines. Also, we don't really have the kind of video games as are at uWink here.. we only have your typical wargaming stuff, which I personally love. My friend and I get together for squash and gaming all the time. Our women hate it.. think it is stupid...
never sign anything!
do you guys have a secret handshake? a secret knock? passwords? symbols? even better... email encryption? what about any rituals or ceremonies? a Code? hopefully there are no statues of senior uWink management around..
last year was mid-November.
by the way, hi everybody. I am The Big Guy. been posting on the uWInk Board. Just ask Rawnoc about my posting style.
oh Come On Netman, why don't you give us all a BREAK. This is not a Private Little Group doing good things, it is an Emotional Support Group for shell-shocked uWink Investors who should have seen IT coming. btw I find Capitalizing Everything makes me Feel better about what I am saying.. heal, guys..
I think This is quite Weird, Downright Scary... lol.
netman your absence is causing people to abandon the board.. you need to return and bring your little band of merry men..
what about:
"what you would have to stick up in the air would be so small no one would see it".
or..
"you could get anything else up in the air.. '
lol
can't you be more creative than that?
what would I stick up in the air to attract the drivers?
OK, now I am bored. What is this, the silent treatment? What if I stand in a corner with my thumb up my ass and another thumb in my mouth for a couple of days? I would probably hurt myself doing that. I am not as flexible as I used to be. Not that I ever used to do anything like that... is the Netman group having fun with themselves?
You forgot PKG. It takes 4 to make a good team of arch villains.
talking with yourself again.. are you schitzophrenic? do you hear posts in your head?
also, TBSG? what is the S? is this so you can deny you ever attacked me?
well, I have counted 3 items, for review by the Big Guy Club (BGC).
BOO!
the statement from Chris is probably the most accurate level-headed statement there has been in years on the prospects of uWink. He is actually setting just the right tone...
and you find it (or my investigation of it) annoying?
why aren't you replying to me directly, Netman? is this an attempt not to be "on the record" or something.. ?
It is up to you to decide what to believe, most importantly. I will believe what I want to believe. My beliefs had better be an improvement on published financial statements or MD&A, or I would do very badly in the markets. Such published statements are usually overly optimistic. And you can believe that or not.
Chris just responded, and responded well.
Big Guy,
You are right that they will have substantially less cash on hand than the $3.2 million, but I have spoken to management and i am assured they will have enough cash on hand to last for 8-12 months.
We’ll see if that holds up.
Remember the restaurants are already running at net cash flow positive.
It isn’t enough to overcome their salaries and other corporate expenses, but it is enough to run the restaurants and break even on them.
We’ll see how long the downturn in the stock lasts, but I have a feeling that we are nearing a bottom.
Once these guys liquidate their positions and get out of the stock, we’ll see some strong stabilization, and a return for new money looking for bargains.
We’ll see what happens.
Chris
Notice he is being a bit muted. I am satisfied. Overall, an excellent response. He must have called uWink on it. Maybe the conversation went something like this:
Chris: Nolan, Chris here, the Big Guy is giving me a hard time on PeakStocks.
Nolan: Oh, don't worry about him. He is an Arch Villain. A real pain, along with Fanny. Pure Evil both of them.
Chris: But he says this... and that...
Nolan: Just a second. The fire is getting low and I am cold. This currency does not burn well. It is actually made of cloth, not paper, you know. I get it from Finance... (joke..).
Chris: OK. (pause).
Nolan: Well, the restaurants are doing well, they make money... and this.. and that.. and the other..
Chris: OK. I will Destroy Him.
Nolan: Please do.
Chris: Oh and btw the gaming and food was great the other day..
Nolan: Great. Bye...
well, lo and behold I don't see the post there... maybe it did not pass moderation. what does that tell you?.. lol
I posted on Peakstocks again. Someone posted about "Buying Big". I could not resist... I called him "naive". The arch villain in me could not resist that either... We will see how he responds.
http://peakstocks.com/uwink-signs-software-licensing-deal-with-chilis-also-opens-3rd-restaurant#comment-1185
Chris:
I think you are being a bit naive in response to this poster. While uWink is definitely cheap, it is still in a downward slide and it would be best to wait it out. My main contention is that you are always quoting cash-on-hand numbers that are clearly bogus to some degree(same thing as “cash value”). That figure of 3.2M appears in their last financial statements. Well, that clearly cannot be the case at this point. Not only have they spent 600k on the MV restaurant, but they have about 1.2M in ST debt. Lastly, they still have a cash burn. the best they could hope for with 3 restaurants is a break-even situation. They won’t have that, likely will burn through another 1M at the current rate. I can’t see them having more than 500k - 1M left after this quarter. Their statement that they have 12 months of cash flow is simply not real. It will not stand up to any analysis.
While now is not a bad time, I say wait for an even better time if you believe in the company, and that time is prior to Xmas and after the next financials are released (mid-Nov). Let these issues resolve themselves. The good thing about uWink is that since they have no debt, going bankrupt is not possible. One outcome is that they could become a takeover target fairly quickly when things turn around. In any event, change is almost for certain, either cost-cutting or further financing. Those changes will impact the stock price. I say, wait for it and really low-ball it when those changes occur.
What I like about uWink is that they are one of a very few software vendors with revenue-generating restaurants that double as test centers. If they could live on those restaurants they would be a powerful entity.
The downward trend is still strong. When you compare uWink with what else is out there, the price is still too high. One could wait until it settles out to .10-20. After the next financials are released and we know how they are dealing with their financial needs will be the time to buy. What ever they do (further financing or cost-cutting) will depress the stock price.
Just my opinion for the poster.
I hope so as well, Stockman.
hehehe .. I cannot be defeated... I am invulnerbale to your stupid attacks.. haaaaaaaaa haaaaaaaa baaaaaaaaa abbbbbbbbb
I have the protection of a Cloaking device and .. nothing more.
Maybe we should meet for an nBeer in a long dark bar.. we approach from opposite ends.. in the dark. check your light saber..
lol
just wondering.. what would the motivation for such a thing be? I must have forgotten....