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I see the stock has not crashed today.. maybe it is not as bad as I am saying.
Good luck to all.
Thanks for correcting me Netman. OK, so I was mistaken about saying there were NO revenues from the Chilis and other installations. The truth is this little passage:
Restaurant sales revenue from our Restaurant Operations business segment amounted to $939,841 (91% of total revenue) and $1,988,281 (96% of total revenue) for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2008, compared to $659,560 (98% of total revenue) and $1,899,532 (96% of total revenue) for the
three and nine months ended October 2, 2007.
First of all, it took far too long for me to find that. Took about 3 passes, then I lost it and had to find it again. it is buried. Why? Because it is not much to crow about.
Most software companies split their revenue streams in their financial statements by the type of revenue it is:
- license fees
- services
- maintenance fees
This says alot about the nature of their business. The fact that uWink has not done that makes a statement about their so-called evolution from a restaurant to a software company. They are not very far along.
Even if I misspoke, this is an abysmal report. They have clearly run out of time to be successful. Prospective customers will know this and take advantage of this.
This stock is still headed lower this week as a result of this. They needed to make major cost cuts and changes after the last Q and they did not.
I said at the outset that I would state the positive and I tried in this post. You guys continue to attack me, yet my objective is to be objective here...er ...
this was my initial post on this topic:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=33588513
I think it is a pretty fair evaluation of where uWink is at. I did say in it however, the following:
The Chilis installation is a pilot, with no license agreement or contract in place. Probably uWink is getting some revenue from it on a transaction basis.
So I admitted from the outset that they are likely getting some revenue from it. I was correct, just reflecting overall sentiment without digging into every little nook and cranny to find out every detail of what should have been spelled out clearly at the get-go.
uWInk will go to a lower level as a result of this less than stellar performance, perhaps sub-.10. Every month that goes by from now on is another month in the hole for them. Every Quarter is another 1.3-1,5M down. They have to be extremely successful in the next few quarters to recover (afford their corporate expenditures). How on earth are they going to do that?
I did not say that what Netman was saying was not fact. All uWink is saying is that there are lots of possibilities. Every software company has lots of possibilities. Every financial report talks of those possibilities in glowing terms. But, to take it literally because you really like the product or something is foolish. Software companies are not like others that have ongoing cash flows.... they will either succeed or fail miserably. uWink has not much going on in terms of sales. There are no revenue numbers in the statements for sales of software. They have sales of zero at this point, after a year of having that crew on board. What are the chances of success going forward? The steps they mention are the very first steps in a sales process.
Case in point: where are the revenues from this so-called "deal" with Chilis? Where are the terms./contract values/ license whatever you want to call it? The fact that there was a contract in place was an assumption by us, and by Chris Hernandez. There is no contract in place.
Actually, I just looked more closely at the statements. The picture is worse than I thought. Part of the SG&A is "Restaurant Operating Expenses", Therefore the restaurants are not as profitable as I was led to believe.
you are the only investor I know that reads financial statements and decides to take them in the most positive light possible. If all of these ambiguous statements were to be taken seriously verbatim.. an investor would have to buy almost every tech stock there is.. and would be bankrupt very quickly..
good luck with it.
Actually I am mistaken, they are not listing their restaurants as Current Assets. I thought they were. No matter. They are still screwed. I just thought maybe they were trying to cover it up.. window dressing.
ST assets = 1.5M
ST liabilities = 1.3M.
=== screwed.
they still have to sell the restaurants to support their corporate expenses going forward.
of course netman. Exactly what i was saying. You provide the research and data that I can't be bothered to dig up for myself.. because I know it is there. "Commission-based" is exactly what i am talking about. No one has to spend anything until a sale is made, and they split up the pie.. an indirect unfocused poorly trained (yet generally knowledgeable) sales force..
thanks for providing that much needed research.!!!
wait, I got it. I know why they can treat their restaurants as Current Assets... BECAUSE THEY ARE A SOFTWARE COMPANY. they don't matter, not their core business. .. lol. improves the ratios.. and maybe for tax reasons..
well, let's see here... stock had kind of a bad day.. a new low... happened at the very end of the day.. just prior to... ...... THE EARNINGS RELEASE! my god.. maybe they are related.. ? can it be true.. ?
geez.. last time this happened it dove like an eagle after a rabbit.. wonder what will happen next week.
wazzup?
to help you with your decision to sell. if you sell now... you can avoid the biggest losses. The move from .17 to .10 is about... 40%. That is the same as from 3.50 to.. maybe 2.50.. all in the space of 1 day.. as opposed to 6 mo. and it is not goin' the other way.
what you do on Monday is up to you there bud.
hahahaha these kind of statements are always way too late.. way too little.. these measures are meaningless...
sga = 2.3M... ok, well 30-day credit terms will help with that.. rack it up... how does the fact that they operate on a cash basis affect the SGA?
reduce the rent? .. like there are no other restaurants that want that space on Castro st... the landlord will just reduce the rent for them.. what a lame statement for a financial report..
BY SELLING OUR RESTAURANTS.
Yes Net for once you are correct/. If they sell their restaurants... they can make the statement that they have enough cash for a year. Actually, 3 qtrs., because they must sell a restaurant per qtr to stay afloat...
lol... FLMAO...
Property & Equipment = Current Asset.. what a joke!
If current means liquid within a year... they are saying that they regard the restaurants, the only thing that makes them any money.. as things they will sell in order to pay their bills and salaries..
LMAO.
I know. I can read that. i thought it was a product that could be ordered by telephone or something that would have a fixed unit price. As opposed to being a separately priced deal incorporating software, hardware, and services.. whew..
still really don't know what the hell it is.
can't wait to get Mr Hernandez's take on this report.. lol.
OK, I am going to state the positives first, lest anybody accuse me of being negative.
I am assuming Netman is quoting passages from the report, which I am not going to read. I don't need to. Thanks Netman.
The first para. establishes what was obvious, but not stated. The Chilis installation is a pilot, with no license agreement or contract in place. Probably uWink is getting some revenue from it on a transaction basis, but there is no sale here yet. It may be probably or even likely, but no sale. What is obvious is that they have started a complex sales cycle with Brinkers for hopefully a huge deal. They must prove themselves as a corporate vendor. This gets them on a list, which then allows a Buyer to buy from them. This is square 1 for any software vendor and should have been started long ago. It is good progress, just far away from the end goal. A sales cycle like this takes from 6 mo. to 1 year.
I don't know what a QSR restaurant is, so can't really comment on that. This is more of the same, starting a corporate vendor approval process. 6 mo to 1 year away from anything meaningful.
Partnering with a group of sales executives is also good progress, but they are giving something up in the process. This kind of thing happens all of the time in this business. Key thing is.. there is no money changing hands likely, until there is a sale. Then, uWink loses a cut to these guys. I wish they had just hired a hard-nosed VP sales. That would have made more sense to me... "Partnering" is a thinly-disguised phrase for hiding total failure. Each party is thinking they are getting something (market or product) from the deal, when in reality they are splitting up the proceeds of a questionable business. It is all percentages of margin... nothing down.. no fixed fees. When I worked for a sales company in Toronto the boss was bringing in vendors all the time. I had tons of product folders on my desk with no focus or direction. I also had no training or support. Not a good way to do business. The company supposedly had inroads with the Canadian government, which was how they got these vendors interested. So the guy was with Brinkers and has some connections.. typical. uWink would have done better to hire their own sales force.
Now, the financials. This is horrible. Brutal yet again. At this point, they are pretty much out of money. They cannot continue in their present form.
Current Assets = 5.2M
Less Property & Equipment (the restaurants from which they derive their revenue) of 3.6M
Current (Liquid!) Assets = 5.2 - 3.6 = 1.6M.
Current liabilities = 1.3M
???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
translation: they are pooched. Out of money. Cannot continue. Pretty soon they will have to close the restaurants in order to settle their debt.
No attempt to control expenses.
At this point this stock is practically worthless. Hate to say it. Watch for it to plummet next week. Another Friday afternoon disaster...
I think at .05 - .10 this thing is a good buy.. the only chance for uWink is for someone to step in with deep pockets and save the restaurants.. before the ST debt holders come in and take the furniture..
"enough cash for 12 months?" who said that..? sheesh.. all in all a real depressing report.. sorry guys.
I have noticed over the last few days that the spread is finally getting tight. This may be a sign of the stock finally stabilizing. I noticed that from the beginning (right after the R/S). I am not sure what the expression "thin" means as in thinly traded.. I think it means low volume... but this was always low volume, big spread.
what is going on is hype, hope, combined with negative cash flow = a slow fade, which will continue until the situation changes. My bet is that there will be one final drop when earnings (losses in this case) comes out. At that point it will be so low it is worth throwing some money at it, because the potential is there. They are not like most bankrupt businesses, where there is debt, and no serious cash flow. The cash flow might be just in the restaurants right now.. but that is a bonus for a software company that is not selling much. All they need to do is live within their means...
I have set a target of .10 - .20 to Buy. It is finally at the top end of that. When do financials come out..?
what I find interesting is that it is so predictable, and the effect on the stock price..
what the real question is is how long can this go on? do they have 12 months... as has been stated. I myself am not sure, it will be interesting what they divulge about their plans in the upcoming report.
Looks like another selloff over the last few days. Could it be because someone knows something about impending earnings report? Same thing happened to some extent last time...
Here id the Money Flow Indicator... trending down again.. except this time it never got a chance to get into Overbought territory in the first place.
ha! disagree, and this has everything to do with uWink. The R/S they did preserved the Market Cap intact.. but not for long. Fact was, it was not worth $5/share. That implies earnings of so much per share based on the industry standard P/E is for restaurants. uWink was no where near that, therefore the price fell to lower the P/E to a more reasonable level. ergo.. quid pro quo. The fact that uWink had all that money in the bank could not counter that market force.
and they still had a long way to go before they even broke even...and could have a positive P/E!
well I think Obama is going to win. Good for a change. Hope he changes things, even after reality hits him. market should get a lift from this.
go uWink go. (every post has to be something about uWink..).
OK, I am going to be serious. We are having an interesting philosophical debate on a matter that I have thought about much. In my Finance 101 training, I realized that everything, and I mean everything boils down to EPS. All you learn in Finance 101 is that everything affects everything else. Nothing really matters, all the ratios, etc. P/E ratio relates earnings to #shares, and everything is wrapped up in EPS. The whole Income statement boils down to EPS.
If Market Cap = #shares X PPS, it distorts what really matters. It is confused by how many shares are outstanding.. then you wonder if financing is likely. In order to avoid that... just look at eps. Simple.
Why do you confuse yourself and make things more complicated than they are?
the world is flat! what are you talking about? almost fell off the other day.
ok, I will go read my textbook on market cap.
stock price is arbitrary? how can you say that? I suppose you are absolutely not a chartist then, I presume? No sense of trend, patterns, the passage of time to let a piece of investor information filter through the system?
Price and eps.. or loss per share.. all that matters.
what? senseless.. stock price is everything. AZD at .06... the patience to wait until it gets to that level.. nothing mnore complicated than that.. who cares about market cap christ man.. have a coffee..
that was great drivel, not like your mindless blithering, you useless trope!
why don't you focus on what is important, like SHARE PRICE. you mean, the lower the share price goes, the higher the potential return, etc. I totally agree with you, just what is the sense in speaking in terms of market cap? I all depends on how many shares are outstanding then. Why not focus on what matters... stock price! Compare that to other stocks. The only reason for looking at market cap is maybe in order to compare it so a similar dollar value, like debt.
then tell me if "trope" is a word. If it is I think it is BAD.
I work for an industrial gas company.. we beat the street on 3Q.. stock is back up.. buy! buy! buy!.. i knew we had a good Q. lol.. there has been doom and gloom the last few weeks at work. it has been bad.
good news never hurts.
Market cap may be a good metric for a blue-chip company or a more solid stock, but not something like this. For a more solid stock, market cap (changes in stock price) affect things like the debt/equity ratio. I work for an industrial company, a solid player. It was at $95 until just recently. Now it is in the 50's. That has implications for the company as a whole, like on how much money they can borrow, because debt/equity is a measure of risk. As a result, we have to cut back on capital spending.
None of this matters to uWink or an investor in uWink. They just need to make it somehow. I remember when the price was 3.50 and some poster would say "nothing has fundamentally changed" for uWink. Well, time has gone by, money has been spent, and that is pretty fundamental. Market cap then was.. 30M? Market cap now is.. 4M. The stock price is directly related to their cash level, and their future prospects.. The trend is caused by being in a negative cash flow position, and that has not changed. That is pretty fundamental.. Until that changes the price will continue to go down.. as it pretty much has.
Hence, Market Cap is fairly useless as a basis for comparisons of true penny stocks like this. Cash flow.. especially eps and p/e ratios, is useful. Really,there is no point until they are making money.. I most cases.
Anyway, just one guy's opinion.. what do I know? wtf.. lol.
actually, they are slightly mildly successful, and better. The restaurants on their own are successful. I don't have anything to compare them against, like metrics particular to that industry... I just know that the other expenses are wiping them out.
not sure why you are so fixated with market cap. I have to think about what that even is... isn't it more of a result than a driver? P/E is meaningful...
frankly viva... if people visit uWink and place abet as to whether or not the establishment is even going to be around in another 2 years... it is not worth it as an investment. If it is a good investment, it should be a slam-dunk wildly popular sure thing. I think the only reason why it went up so high first time around is that there was the possibility of a chain.
I wonder why the Asians liked it and the .. er.. rest of us didn't? Maybe it is the language capabilities. Asian languages are a challenge for software companies.
so when is the year-end for funds down in the US? It is December or October? I would really like to know... thanks.
I find this post so funny to look back at now..
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=26333997
this says something about unscrupulous people, something about investors, and something about the markets in which this things trades.. btw the author of this is an investor himself..
I am not even going to say what it means to me...
lol.
Is this true?
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=25471105
he is saying that finds dump at the end of November. Maybe down in the US. The year-end for funds here in Canada is October.
He has been banned, so I can't ask him.:(
frankly.. if I may be Frank. if that is all it is.. boring. yawn. that will not sell it. Every software package in the whole entire world promises to reduce cost and will pay for itself. Every... single... one.
Frank is not my name, however.
so someone explain something to me...
Is there an angle here for a certain kind of revenue which would be very profitable for uWInk.. I do not know the term.I am not an e-marketing guy..
But, when I use Google, for example, I do not pay Google to do that. I may look at what is advertised on Google, which may cause me to make a buying decision. Those advertisers pay Google. Google makes lots of money.
Does the same thing come into play here with the media angle? Are there paying sponsors of uWink that pay to have their content used in uWink's systems that is a revenue stream for uWink? That could be a powerful thing. In looking at their offerings, the Media Library and the Branding, Promotion, and Advertising applications look like they could support that. It depends on who they are targeted towards. It it is just a platform for the uWink customer to advertise their brands, that is not what I am talking about. If it is a library of media or advertising that is paid for by other sponsors.. that would be what I am thinking. The uWink customer (restaurant) is like me using Google.. they don;t have to pay for it, and don't really care, it is just an extra for them. Meanwhile, uWink makes big bucks.
I am not sure of I am explaining myself well.. just thoughts.
thanks.
With respect to your first para (after your introductory statement), I believe you are wrong. I have 15 years experience in the software industry and have looked at all kinds of technology from outside and inside major corporations. There are different reasons for purchasing technology. Some business analysis must be conducted to justify it, and usually unless the software can pay for itself it goes nowhere. My experience has been in industrial software, ERP systems, and the like. ROI rules.
But it does not have to be this way, depending on the kind of software or technology it is. uWink is an entertainment company. I believe the customer would buy this software because it generates revenue, not because it reduces cost. Either justification works. The cost reduction is a nice throw-in benefit. It may cause problems too in terms of eliminating workers. I think it would work great in the Valley, where it is tough getting labor for low-end jobs. The workers they do get tend to be expensive, so it works.. but if the owner wants the personal touch and the servers want their jobs? what then?
All I can say is, if I were selling it, I would push the gaming/media products. They are the only ones which differentiate uWink from the competition.There are likely other self-service applications out there. There are lots of table display systems. That looks like a throw-in.
Why did I purchase this stock? After years of fruitless analysis, I saw an article on msn.com. That was a year before it opened. I bought more shares as it sank lower... then it got down to .20.. I did no analysis whatsoever. I simply knew that restaurants are popular when they are new, and this one had some great angles (technology, gaming, Nolan's history). So I was lucky, but had the intelligence to recognize it and act on it. Good enough for me.. I got the biggest pop I have ever had.
My impressions come from what I read on the net, that is it... someone over on yahoo had quite a good comment awhile back, but the Yahoo Police deleted it. Not sure why..
I have never set foot in a uWink, and seeing as I am in Toronto I can't see it happening, unless fate comes into play.
the restaurants on their own are profitable. THeir problem is the SG&A not related to the restaurants. It si kind of hard to tell, there ae alot of corporate expenses which may eb tied to the development of the concept, but the restaurants ont heir own are doing quite well. They may be doing some accounting things for tax purposes which twist the story somewhat. I know that R&D expenses (a big component of any software company's expenses) are treated differently in the US vs Canada, although I am not an expert.
Next financials should be mid-November.
With regard to your going in price and "hope", what uWink needs to do is multiply the number of restaurants to support the corporate expenses. Unfortunately, they can't do that.. which leads me to believe a takeover would be a boon to investors. Someone with deep pockets could make something of this.
That, or they learn how to sell and get it going.. that I can't tell.
what you are saying is true.. cost/benefit analysis and justification (ROI Analysis) is necessary for any software purchase, especially industrial software, like scheduling applications, that work behind the scenes.. but is this true of an application like this, that is in front of the customer? It is more of a revenue generator, I would think. Cost reduction is more of a bonus.
There is a threat to the status quo in terms of jobs as well. And maybe mixed reactions to the different way in which a uWink restaurant would operate. The lack of the personal touch.
Anyway, I am not getting the impression these restaurants are wildly popular. I know they are profitable.. that is why I just wish they would operate in the financial constraints imposed by that.
Not sure why there have not been more sales thus far as well.
if it makes any difference... the chart for the last few days has formed a "Bullish Homing Pigeon Pattern"... lol, whatever the heck that is...
was looking for your opinion as well. Don't give up so easy.. lol.
anyway, IMO the reason for the stock slide is simply deteriorating financials. If there is no other obvious reason, that is what it is. It hits you kind of in hindsight.....
would like to hear your views as well. Thanks for the response.
Well I must say it is nice to have some fresh comments on this board. We seem to be a bit polarized. I maintain my interest here because uWInk was like the first big score I had. I like to follow it. But, I am not currently a shareholder and think that it is headed lower. The only things it has going for it are; they do have multiple income streams because of those restaurants, and they have no debt. Therefore I can't see them getting down to the sub - .10 range. As a software vendor, having those restaurants is a boon.
However, they are spending more than they are earning, and by a long shot. I don't personally think they are very far along in terms of selling software, and I also don't think they have the right personnel. Opinions differ.
So, I think that things will come to a head fairly soon, perhaps with this mid-Nov report, then there might be some changes and the stock will find a new pre-Xmas low, at which time it might be a great buy. Simply because something has to happen, there is no where to go but up.
Also, this economy and credit situation is not helping them. Tech companies rely on the corporate IT spending budget, which is sure to be hit next year.
So having said all that, what do you mean by "good fundamentals"?