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~10M as of 3pm EST today based on assumptions and such. A lot of variable though. I would not be surprised at all if it's almost 0... or 20M.
Either way, we're on an exponential climb with trade activity, so it's only a matter of hours or days, now - IMO.
I think we may see a PR update on the 3(a)(10) debt payoff status tomorrow. If that does not happen, it seems very probable by Monday or Tuesday next week.
This is based on Armen's answer to INSTA recently that Tarpon usually updates The Company on the status ~20th of the month.
The update could include only status as of Oct 31.
The update could include additional info such as... "Final tranch!"
The update could include additional info such as... "Tarpon also reports that they expect the final tranch to be completed before end of November!"
I think it's going to be a Happy Thanksgiving.
Here are the details.
Unarguably, the trading is getting very interesting - yesterday...today... and will be more interesting each day, now. Here's why.
My estimate shows that there are only ~10M shares available from Tarpon and it's all over. To be sure, there are many assumptions, but my assumptions come from careful calculations and analysis. That being said, let's say 10M +/- 10M. Whatever the case, we're at the end. That's why bystanders are grabbing up anything they can, now.
HOWEVER - sales are at an increasing average pps now, and volume has been increasing. So it could end as early as power hour today!
In any case, I think the shares are GONE before Thanksgiving! All IMO - of course!
One thing to be sure of from the number I've gathered - Tarpon is selling during the day, T-Trades can be partly or all Tarpon, and Tarpon selling is may include T-Trades, but definitely includes intraday registered trades as well... and a large percentage of them.
I took outliers out of the calculations - days when Tarpon is out of shares, for example. The best general number to use comes out to 37.5% of average days trading being Tarpon share sales. Of course every day varies, just like yesterday, at about 80% Tarpon sales.
Referring to the Tarpon sales not being limited or isolated to T-Trades, just note that earlier this year, there were NO T-Trades over entire weeks while tranches were received and sold by Tarpon. You can also see in the attached spreadsheet (click to see full size in browser) that the T-Trades just aren't enough to support the tranch sales in some periods.
Stupid comment. First, if you think you can see thick/thin behind the bids on L2, you're pretty inexperienced. Second, if you call watching L2 part of your DD ("DD 101"), you're clearly inexperienced. You should drop your "101" courses at whatever high school you're currently enrolled in, and look for a tutor. Once you graduate, look for a mentor.
I'll be posting details soon but, rest assured, the blocks of sells are almost surely Tarpon. The retail sales on the ask right now are almost surely flippers who like the fantastic-looking 10%+ bid-ask spread. They're wrong in thinking they can buy back in
Tarpon shares are almost gone. If you want any, put in your bid and wait for the gift (don't buy the retail flippers' offers on the ask right now, wait for BKRT on the ASK before you slap). If you don't want a whole lot of shares and can wait for the possible gift, put your bid in at .0077 or above - Tarpon will not go lower if they don't have to. More likely, others who want a position before the shares are gone will start walking it up.
Laughable talking about falling knife.
The person suggesting RXMD stock is a "falling knife" has no clue what that would be. A quick glance at the accumulation that's been going on with this stock since the debt payoff plan started executing, and now over the past 2 months with payoff near completion... is all it takes to see a beautiful opportunity!
If this poster doesn't want to spend a little bit of time doing his own DD to learn what's going on here, he should at least learn to do a quick read of a chart. Maybe he'd have better luck with investments - rather than "playing" coin-flip stocks.
The best way to understand this is to start from the beginning and see how the deal was structured:
From the 8K, Sept 16, 2014:
Someone loaded up today or covered a short position, that's what happened:
I also noted this, waterpro. Yes, IMO it's very conservative to use only the T-trades. I've witnessed and bought into the action with BKRT many times over the past months, and I am - again, IMO - quite sure those were Tarpon shares.
I've done some calculating today from various angles and, though I don't want to create false expectations, my thoughts are... no need at all to be disappointed if it doesn't go this way - it only means that my assumptions were incorrect, but - don't be surprised over the next few trading days to see the price and trade action change in a very positive way, never to look back. Lock your shares down and raise your sell limits if you've got them too low. It's about to get real interesting, now.
Yes, I'm pretty sure. You can look over the appropriate sections of the disclosures in the quarterlies and verify if you want, but here's my previous post on the topic:
Well, I calculate 25% from the numbers given on page 18 in the recent quarterly.
Take this paragraph, for example:
Wow! That's really something. It's happening faster than I expected!
I hope this doesn't confuse anyone who's trying to track Tarpon share count or debt payoff, but...my opinion. I had a chance to watch the L2 and trades/price for most of the day, today.
I believe essentially all of the T-trade shares can be figured as Tarpon sales. That's 2,927,805 shares at avg price of .00803.
I believe that easily 4M of the shares traded/recorded during the day can be figured as Tarpon sales. I haven't worked it out precisely, but at a glance I believe the average was over .0081. (I will use 0.0081 to be conservative)
So my calculation goes like this:
2,927,805 + 4,000,000 = 6,297,805 shares sold by Tarpon today
(2,927,805 x 0.00803) + (4,000,000 x 0.0081) = $55,910 proceeds
25% x $55,910 = $13,977 Tarpon commission
75% x $55,910 = $41,933 Debt paid today
You are missing the significance of the price and trade action of late.
Ingnstrng obviously has his own reasons for writing these posts that we all know are inconsistent with the reality of the situation. So I don't really care what he posts - ignore the meaningless bunk and it will be washed out by the intelligent and informed posts.
But what YOU are missing is that the recent quarterly and PR are indeed helping to reinforce what we all on this board already know - and we are experiencing a significant reversal from a minor downward trend after flipping and profit-taking from the recent 60%+ pps increase.
I don't think you should expect - I don't - for the pps to shoot up on these news articles. The news is not new for those in-the-know.
Note that we had been trading mostly side-ways for 2 weeks with a small drop, and just look at the resuming accumulation after the profit-taking and flipping.
If you look at the trades
http://ih.advfn.com/stock-market/USOTC/progressive-care-inc-pl-RXMD/trades
and the chart
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=rxmd
you can see that it's becoming clear to those who've been sitting on the sidelines that there are not a lot of Tarpon shares left from which to build a position.
All day today, you might conclude that one or just a small handful of buyers have been handshaking with BKRT to build a nice position. I think it's mostly one investor quickly building or starting a solid position.
There were ~173 shareholders of record from the last Company disclosure update. Given the amount of debt that remains to be paid off, there are only enough "gift" shares remaining for Tarpon to sell to supply a good starting position for a limited number of buyers at this point.
We're on the last leg up, with declining supply of shares and increasing demand. Shorts had better cover. There will be NO supply anywhere in this price range very soon.
The best guidance we have is what EPGL put in the PR:
If it's for just the up-front payment, then I think you should completely remove EPGL from your list. Putting EPGL in there for $1.1B is misleading and puts a spin on the "having a little fun while we wait" theme.
EPGL has not put out any "guess" related to this up-front cash amount, and the $1.1B number clearly does not relate in any way to an up-front initial cash payment:
RXMD - Fantastic! Thank you for putting this together.
Based on previous months PR, I think we could see a PR by Tuesday or Wednesday of this week with an update on the 3(a)(10) transaction (debt payoff status) and October prescriptions/revenue/profit. Should be an exciting week!
Of the $2M liabilities that you mention, $751K is Accounts Payable. This is part of normal business that every company carries on their balance sheet as a liability. It is offset by Accounts Receivable ($650K, as shown under Assets).
The 3 items associated with debt on the balance sheet - part of the $2M that you mentioned - are: Notes Payable, Derivative Liability and Debt Discount. These will all go away when the Tarpon deal is finished (within weeks). I'm not sure about the Unearned Income line item, but that may also be related to some accounting of benefit from the debt instruments. The actual debt is Notes Payable, the Derivative Liability and Debt Discount are accounting measures related to the Notes Payable that will go away when the debt is paid.
In any case, pertaining to the debt, you should be looking at Page 16 of the recent quarterly. You can see on the left side of the table that the debt (as of Sept 30) was $552,940.
Now if you compare the debt remaining on the three quarterly reports (Mar, Jun, Sep), you will see the debt declining (notes payable) as:
Mar: $1,690,666
Jun: $1,441,735
Sep: $552,940
Dec: (expect $25,000)
The $25K remaining debt that the company keeps on the books is due to an individual note holder that has been unreachable for repayment. This person is possibly deceased, and the company has not been able to reach next of kin, etc.
Just to put this in perspective, it is actually pretty rare for any company to have 0 debt. This is where RXMD will be very soon.
For example, look at the big picture of a recent deal where CVS bought Omnicare for $12.7B. This deal was reported to include CVS assuming at least some of (probably most of) the debt that Omnicare had on their books:
It would help if you could just learn to read financial statements on your own. Most on this board are willing to help and have shown that they are very helpful to truly interested new/prospective investors, but you have clearly demonstrated over many months now that you are not really looking for answers - you just make baseless "implications."
There's an income statement and there's a balance sheet. There's a difference between the two. Those who know what's going on with RXMD understand exactly why the balance sheet looks the way it does, and that's why they're here.
With > 300M shares OS, it was darn hard for me to get my orders for over 1.5M shares filled yesterday. Why is that? Because holders of over 250M of those shares do NOT want to sell anywhere near the current pps level.
RXMD / Pharmacy News
Great RXMD news this week, but we knew most of it. I know I was quiet today, but I was busy buying at the best price I could on today's dip. As I mentioned the other day, I think there's still a little bit of time before debt pay down is complete - maybe 2 weeks, possibly another week or two. But I didn't want to risk it starting to ramp up again (considering that they could publish news on the debt paydown status or October revenue as early as tomorrow, even).
Someone asked yesterday or today what are some good reasons for buying stock in a company like RXMD. So I gathered a few recent news items to ponder.
Here are some news items and articles that show the recent trend in consolidation and other opportunities for companies like Progressive Care RXMD. It's exciting to have a piece of a company in a sector like this with nowhere to go but up! There are few - if any - publicly-traded companies like RXMD that you can buy into at this low price and with so much potential to grow. Positive cash flow, operational profit, debt nearly paid off completely, and in a high growth market... and now with plans to add robotic dispensing (more prescription volume, efficiency - revenue, profit) and expand to Palm Beach County!
---------------------------
Very recent news (note that prescriptions and services to assisted living / long-term care facilities is a big part of RXMD PharmCo's revenue and growth potential):
August 2015 - CVS Health (CVS) said Thursday that it has agreed to buy pharmacy services provider Omnicare (OCR) for about $12.7 billion, a move to expand its presence in the senior care market.
CVS will pay $98 per share in cash and assume $2.3 billion of Omnicare's debt.
Omnicare, the nation's largest provider of pharmaceutical services in nursing homes, has 160 locations in assisted living and long-term care facilities in 47 states in the U.S.
"The acquisition of Omnicare significantly expands our business, providing CVS Health access into a new pharmacy dispensing channel," said CVS Health CEO Larry Merlo in a statement.
With Baby Boomers aging, the long-term care industry is estimated to grow rapidly in the coming years. By 2050, one-fifth of the total U.S. population will be 65 or older, up from 12% in 2000, according to Congressional Budget Office. And nearly all nursing homes and residential care communities offer on-site pharmaceutical services. In the first quarter, Omnicare's sales rose 5.6% to $1.7 billion.
----------------------------
Very recent news:
November 2015 - Ahead of its annual FY’15 earnings release, Walgreens announced that it will acquire rival Rite Aid for $17.2 billion dollars, all in cash.
----------------------------
This is a pretty recent article:
Specialty Pharmacies (SPs) are predicted to have over a 200% increase in growth over the next few years. There’s very good reason for this: by 2018, seven out of every 10 dispensed medications will be specialty pharmaceuticals as opposed to the three out of 10 being dispensed today. This enormous leap forward presents both changes and challenges to the way specialty pharmaceuticals are dispensed. - See more at: http://www.axiumhealthcare.com/specialty-pharmacy-quality-care/#sthash.4b0xkgUc.dpuf
----------------------------
This is a pretty old article but interesting, nonetheless, and still frequently cited:
While nonspecialty drugs plod along with year-to-year spending increases of between 2 and 6 percent, specialty drug costs are zooming forward more than 10 percent annually. An Express Scripts report projects the share of drug spending devoted to specialty pharmaceuticals to increase from approximately 19 percent in 2006 to 26 percent by 2010. As a result of higher utilization owing to expanded indications and to a blossoming pipeline, specialty pharmacy expenditures are expected to reach $100 billion annually by 2010. If current trends continue, by 2030, specialty pharmacy costs will exceed $1 trillion a year and account for as much as 44 percent of a health plan’s total drug expenditures. - See more at: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2706163/
I think very unlikely, looks like various flippers dodging around the ASK prices - my opinion only. Based on my numbers and method, I give it until Black Friday earliest, second weekend in December latest for debt paid.
But you never know - I always like good surprises... when I'm holding!
Agreed, very close to the end... in line with the company's recent PR's and expectations.
However, though I like to be precise with my numbers and estimates in certain ways to gain confidence... once I have some confidence in my methods, I like to pull back and apply my confident method to the whole situation in a general way - due to all of the variables. The bulk variables then tend to cancel each other out, and it's amazing how close a rough guess over the bulk situation can be.
If I apply my numbers in this way to today's situation with RXMD, I get a rough idea of about $200K in debt remaining to be paid. Apply the 25% transaction fee, and that means Tarpon's got to sell enough shares to generate $267K dollars in gross proceeds. Figure around $0.0075 per share, and that comes out to 35.56M shares. If Tarpon is on the sell side of 50% of trades, that means we need ~70M shares traded. At (conservatively) 6M per day, that's right around Thanksgiving. Being conservative, you could give it another week... or two, whatever you feel good about.
Considering that the 306M number was given as the number issued and outstanding, and some of those were in Tarpon's hands and not yet sold, I would round off to about 306M + 30M, giving about 336M. That number includes the 10M given to Midam in June (it's included in the 306M stated by the company), so you may as well add the additional 10M shares that went to Midam in October. That adds up to 346M. So someone's guess about ~350M when it's all done is consistent with this.
Regarding your question/comment about "where would the other 50% of dilution be going?"
I'm not saying - I don't think anyone is saying - that it's all dilution. Rather, the point is that you cannot attribute all trades to Tarpon being on the sell side. Clearly, for all trades someone is selling and someone is buying. The question is, what is the percentage of all trades - or trades on a given day - for which Tarpon is/was the seller. There is absolutely no way that Tarpon is the seller of every share that is bought on any given day. In fact, I am convinced that there were many days for which Tarpon was completely inactive.
Does this make more sense?
Well, I calculate 25% from the numbers given on page 18 in the recent quarterly.
Take this paragraph, for example:
Z, I am not sure I follow exactly. It seems that you are calculating the entire amount of proceeds of all of your 80,422,000 shares as debt payment.
First, I think at best, it could be around 50% of those 80M shares being Tarpon sales, but it could be less (even substantially less, we don't know).
Second, as someone else posted earlier today I think, a portion of the proceeds goes to Tarpon as a "transaction fee." That transaction fee is actually quite steep. I think it is 25.00% (even).
So... if as much as 50% of all trades are Tarpon sales, and 25% of that is applied to Tarpon transaction fees, then you could estimate that 75% x 50% = 37.5% of daily trades could be going toward debt repayment (excluding days that Tarpon was clearly not selling; and it has generally been agreed by board posters that there have been a number of such days, possibly 1 or 2 per week).
To estimate "grossly," you might figure that on average some number of days per week included Tarpon activity - say 3.5 days per week. 3.5 out of 5 is 70%. So now if you use 70% of the 35%, you get 24.5%. So using this "gross" estimate, you come out with ~25% of all activity going toward debt repayment (after you subtract the $100K "success fee" that was paid to Tarpon; I don't think the 25% transaction fee was applied to the sales for recovery of this "success fee." Easier to calculate now, since the "success fee" has been paid off entirely).
Change any of the numbers in the above calculations to something that you think is more accurate... but the numbers used above yield the result of ~25% of daily share trades going toward debt repayment.
Net - I wasn't trying to give you a hard time about wanting info. We all agree with doing as much research as possible and good DD.
I don't mean to sound combative or overly defensive, I don't feel that way, so I hope that's not the way you see it.
The general point was that the things you asked about - and seemed to demand from others - have been asked and answered multiple times, and it seemed that you were trying to head the board down that same path again.
I agree with the general content of what you wrote here, and it's good to see you also looking into details and sharing your results.
Yes, we are all really looking forward to SEC filings, getting current on all, etc.! That's going to make us feel more comfortable; it will make others feel more comfortable... and market value will show it (pps up!!).
I do disagree with one statement that you made here, that 80%... speculation can be put to rest with SEC filings:
1. 340B contract... this is still new and developing, and no SEC filing is going to give more/better info. If you review the PR and Insta's notes from Armen discussion, it meshes well and gives a very solid status update: "Still developing, don't expect anything for October revenue from this, but will update as soon as new info becomes available."
2. Debt info - we have the best that's available, and it will be updated as soon as new info becomes available.
Don't get me wrong. I know - I think we all know - that getting current and filing with SEC will be another great development for RXMD and shareholders. We're all looking forward to that. Before that happens, we all (I think) believe we'll hear several additional pieces of great news for the RXMD and shareholders.
Why not a short cover?
Haha, great. Thanks for putting up with all these helpful ideas ;^)
Funny, I was just looking at that supplemental a few minutes ago. I just looked at it again after I read your post.
Unfortunately, they only updated the shares that Progressive Care gave to Tarpon as of that date - not the shares that Tarpon sold or had left.
INSTA - I imagine you've got this sort of thing in mind but... As a key point of interest, you might specifically ask if it is reasonable to expect that, when the last share is sold by Tarpon - would he by notified immediately... and could we expect that we would be given the news in a PR immediately?
This (below) probably wouldn't need to be asked explicitly, but it's what I'm thinking:
And if he wouldn't automatically be notified by Tarpon immediately - I imagine that shareholders would notice this pretty quickly from the price/trade action and... if someone were to contact him again to let him know the suspicion, would he contact Tarpon to get confirmation? ... and release the information?
Insta - I think you're right about Tarpon in what you posted a week or two ago. They can - and seem willing to - wait and sell on the news. Tarpon just does not seem to be willing to sell at lowball bids when everyone including Tarpon knows the value is much, much higher.
Being so low on shares now, Tarpon's got all the time in the world to liquidate and still meet the end-of-year target. Of course, if they last until next week, they'll be gone at the first PR. Tarpon's doing a good job for their selling contract. I said it once before, but I think RXMD management did a good job in vetting Tarpon and other work involved in negotiating the agreement.
Well, as long as you didn't put anything into it that you need to pull out within... days - if that's a true statement, I believe you have nothing but good things to look forward to.
You sound like you know what you're doing, so I'm not trying to lecture here or tell you how to trade, but just some thoughts...
If you're not still buying - or even if you're still buying - this is a good time to set sell limits (and buy limits) that you're comfortable with and get on with your holiday plans. Let your money work for you.
That being said, it's a good idea (IMHO) with OTC stocks to take a look daily after hours or before opening. You don't need to be concerned about good news (which normally comes before opening, but often through the day) - if you set your sell limits, that's taken care of for you. You just want to look for bad news, which normally comes after hours.
With OTC stocks, I don't use stop loss/limit orders because of the games that are played on the OTC - even for great stocks. Because liquidity is often very low or can fluctuate, it's relatively easy for the price to be manipulated in ways to trigger stop orders, and you can lose your shares for no good reason. So that's the main reason that you want to just check in daily after/before hours - to see if there's any bad news to react to - rather than rely on something more automatic like stop orders.
And I don't think that would hurt at all. Some will be picked up by low-gain flippers, and there are so many long strong holders that some selling on the ramp up should provide liquidity like grease in the gears. Congrats to all who pick up bargain shares! Not a whole lot left.
I think (hope) he was just kidding around.
Haha, there you go, I hope you're getting them all filled. Will be good to know they're in your hands!
Thanks, Insta - appreciate your work and sharing!
I don't want to come across as a wanabe arbitrator here, but let me interject - If you want to "counter" what you call daily to-da-moon posting, then you should counter it directly... rather than post vague, open challenges and contradicting arguments.
Golfboy and Insta have been having direct conversations with RXMD management. If you don't want to believe that, then don't ask for them to do your work for you - asking your questions... that they've already asked and received answers to - AND posted the summaries of their discussions.
You and I are lucky, opportunistic new investors, to have stumbled onto this company/stock. At least, I am. If you don't yet have a position... that's your call. If some of these board members sound a bit "indignant" I can understand why - I've reviewed a few thousand posts and put many pieces together, along with more direct DD efforts. I don't mind doing this at all, as I now stand to be well into 6-figure gains if management (and other employees, the company as a whole) continues to perform as they have over the past year.
If your position is what you implied in a recent post, then you stand to gain as much or at least in the same ballpark. The least you can do is spend a few hours to do a little bit of work before posting what appears to be contradicting and therefore erroneous challenges and demands. Contradicting because you ask for answers, ask for questions to be posed to Armen, and then you turn around and discredit the posting of any such discussion summaries.
RXMD management has been forthcoming and informative, and they've done a heck of a job over the past year+ turning this business around. They're running a tight ship and achieving all of the goals they set out a year ago. They've also been very responsive to investor calls and inquiries. But this responsiveness comes at a cost - in time, and key management resources. Long investors want answers, but they want a limit to how much time/resources the company needs to spend responding and repeating responses.
Haha, yes you noticed. I used some of that for adding RXMD, kept some in reserves. I'll see how the other one plays out over the next month or two... I really do think I'm going to want to get back in it, soon. But my "smart money" is in RXMD.
This is a reply to your post here, NDWW, as well as a few other interesting recent posts.
1. Everyone investing in this or any stock should be keenly aware that every trade constitutes a "buy" and a "sell." Any trade could be a retail-retail trade or a retail-Tarpon trade (I doubt that there are many institutional trades, but there could be a few of limited sorts that you could call "institutional" - though probably not as in the common definition from Investopedia... pension funds and such). Any trade could be a sale of Tarpon shares, whether an ASK slap (of MM with Tarpon shares) or a BID whack (by Tarpon).
2. (If anyone has other information regarding this question, please do post, or let's consider this ANSWERED) I found no evidence of any restriction to Tarpon sales as a % of daily sales/volume/trades in the agreement, and I am unaware of any other source of such restrictions. Anyone please feel free to comment, but IMO the only restriction would be self-imposed by Tarpon in performing the services that they provide for both parties - Claimants and The Company (Progressive Care). The service they provide is to liquidate the shares for generating proceeds from those sales to pay off the debt. As such, both parties were agreeable to the terms and surely considered Tarpon's methods and demonstrated performance. For Tarpon to make money for their services and to be marketable to other prospective customers for such services, they surely want to make both parties happy by... selling the shares in a reasonable short time (good for Claimants) and doing so strategically to minimize negative impact to stock price (good for The Company... and RXMD shareholders). Make no mistake, Tarpon was paid well to do this service - $100K in Fee Shares. IMO, the management of Progressive Care did a good job in making this deal!
3. I DID find very clear evidence of 60% to 70% of trades being Tarpon debt sales on some days (Monday of this week is a good example), as well as around 50% (give/take) of trades on typical days. And, of course, there were some days over the past ~2 months that I have seen where there were apparently 0% Tarpon sales (consistent with what INSTATRADER has indicated in his Debt Updates).
I started a position in RXMD in mid-September and added here and there for a month or so. Over the past 2 weeks I added over 2M shares and, while making those trades, I observed the trades and price action. I can assure you - NetGroups - if you were making the same trades and watching the action as I progressed, you too would make these same observations and conclusions. No retail trader would dump shares onto the my BID with a 10%+ bid-ask spread - and definitely not in the manner and consistency in which it was done. Similarly, no trader would expose their shares on the ask in the manner in which my ASK slaps were accomplished.
IMO, the Tarpon gift-giving season is almost over. I'm pretty comfortable with my position now, and I'll be happy with it if I'm unable to add much more before it dries up and the price shoots up to 05+. So I don't mind sharing my experience that IMO validates the summary indications contributed by various posters (thanks to Insta, Jason, times2, goodtime and others).
You ask a good question here: (my answer / opinion below)
Okay, thanks, I appreciate your response. It's helpful to know this is possible. I know you're not playing games, so that's not the point.
I did just note that posting history and everything else remains intact, so it can have only limited effect if someone were to do that for manipulative purposes... it's easy enough to identify by making a quick check into a poster's profile. Just good for me to know, thank you!