is... a buy and hold investor of dividend US and Canadian stocks
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what is the company going to use for Working Capital in the next 12-14 months...?
I gather from all of this, the vesting period and so on, that the corporate costs that have been killing them will be transferred to eh licensing division and that this restaurant side will go into a kind of transition period where it becomes self-sufficient.
But, those ongoing costs are not going anywhere.. they will be reduced (less consultants), but still will be there. In all seriousness, what is uWink's intention in terms of financing this operation until the software deals come to fruition? Issuing shares on this Pink Sheet exchange?
COrrection, I am here to learn... i just think it is best to go with what you know at the time... or somthing. I have learned lots.
buddy, I work because of SOX. I have worked for two US-basedcompanies in positons created by SOX. I am in COst COntrol. I keep 'em hohest. HOnest. I know abotu SOX.
Furthermore, my copntent is not embarassing. and I can type realyl frast.
I have gotten lots of stuff right. THing is, I never look anything up. I go with my brain, in it's current condition. I am not here to learn or to go to scholl, just tell it like it is off the top of my head. You cold put an nBeer on the top of my head, I am a very level-headed guy.;
no way buddy. I used a spreadhstte.
I had to read the statement carefully and think about it.
We estimate that odd-lot stockholders who own less than 100 shares represent over 66% of our record stockholder base but only approximately 0.04% of our total shares outstanding.
.04% of the shares are owned by the "losers". Loser = someone that owns <9 shares and has forgotten abotu them in his/ her portfolio. THat, or soemone that cannot spell.
anyuway.
that number of shares (regardless of whom owns them)
- = .04% or .0004 times (X) 11000000 = .. $4400.
Guess i was wrong. :).
The responding companies had average annual revenues of $4.7 billion.
- what have you ben sniffing this evening?
So the basic idea here of para 3 is that the shareholders are being given something "for free". The dividend share. Then it is like an option and a stock split. And it is common for options to have a period where they cannot be traded... is that called "vesting"? yup I just checked So shareholders feel like they are getting something in return for going to pink sheets.. likely losing market value and liquidity.. and realizing that further financing is likely imminent with the usual repercussions.. is it that simple?
The problem with being a Corporate Finance guy is that you have to be so devious.. this is creating wealth out of bending the rules and taking something for yourself.
Why is the 500-limit important for # shareholders? Maybe it is a number of shareholders that allows them to delist without permission or something.
So take two rules:
- minimum lot size, designed to encourage liquidity and keep costs down for investors.
- and the above, whatever it is..
and create this financing option.. offering these <99 shareholders an option that makes it attractive for them to sell their shares, and getting to that 500 shareholder limit.
The basis for a class action lawsuit would be: this is discrimination in favor of those shareholders that have less than 99 shares. They are getting a good deal, given the current share price. Why should they get such a good deal and everyone else, who has invested in this company and gotten it to whee it is. get screwed (likely). I would be pissed off if I were a shareholder at this point. Unless I had less than 99 shares and just wanted to buy a few cases of nBeer.
I could never be this devious.
This will cost about $200k. That in itself will drive down the price of the stock. This is a panic move.
We estimate that odd-lot stockholders who own less than 100 shares represent over 66% of our record stockholder base but only approximately 0.04% of our total shares outstanding.
based on that and 11M shares out there.
the # of shares held by those with less than 99 = 352K.
Therefore, cost to repurchase = 352k X .50 = 176k.
Adding in the $20 fee will bring it to $200k. In other words, their entire Working Capital.
I thought it was just because the stock sucked...
well the question is... how will the uWink Interactive Subsidiary be financed? The company needs new financing period, whether or not it benefits the restaurant or technology division. What will be the effect on the current shareholders.. wrt dilution...
Odd things happen. One company I watch is Azure Dynamics. It is currently at .05. Similarly financially challenged. Different business altogether. Well, some time back they got a PP at .25/sh. So, if that happens here, shareholders may benefit.
Just wondering what the new financing structure will be. Or do we know?
$1M - $2M/ year? I find that hard to believe. btw I have been drinking. I wall stop correct my spelling mistakes as of...
Now..
Read the fine print, PKG. $50 + $20 = $70! Get it right! And for the love of PETE... STOP BEING SO NEGATIVE!
R-O-F-L-M-A-O.
curious what does "tender" mean in this case.. give it up? sell tot he company? and how can they simply say that the shareholders suddenly have restricted voting rights? who the hell allowed them to do that?
No, I think existing shareholders are getting screwed in that they have no CONTROL. Isn't that what "restricted" means? The new entity may issue shares, then there is a dilution problem. But I see existing shareholders as simply having reduced liquidity (due to the lack of a public market) and no voting power. Possible dilution.
Opinions?
Lastly... tomorrow this thing will bomb for one last time.. question, to what price? what the hell is it worth now?
prediction: <.01.
I extend my sincere condolences and best wishes for the future for everyone/ anyone who has invested in uWink and had the courage to continue to believe. I have always acted for the best interests of others. Hopefully everybody understands that. This kind of thing makes a joke of our capital markets and the irresponsibility with which the officers of this company have conducted business astounds me.
Good Luck everyone.
think of the transaction fees man.. 100 sh are worth ... .08. Transaction fees are worth $20. Taking this offer is the only thing these investors can do... for a whopping $48?
LMAO... LMAO>> what a joke.
hey.. we could do some share transfers... I will buy 99 shares.. haha 99 shares are worth about .10, making even that useless.. just a random thought..
wow... I am not a Corporate Finance guy, but I want to guess without checking all of the posts about what the intentions/ purpose of this is.
OK, so they want to become a privately-held company, then they can do whatever they damn well please. They will reduce costs, yes, but in their situation that is not the main driver. They need to do far more than that, so it can't be the sole reason. It is a good (great) deal for the odd-lot owners. It probably gives them considerably more latitude in all that they do. The Sarbanes Oxley requirements are a hindrance for any company. That gives me the reason for my job (Cost Control):).
What is really interesting is the spin-off angle. They make the reference to raising capital: eliminating the costs associated with being a reporting company for each of our operating businesses, will improve the prospects for raising growth capital. Later: shareholders will receive restricted shares of the spin-off company so that no trading market will develop for the common stock of the spin-off company.. I thought that they were intending to issue shares for the spinoff (screwing investors). But that statement seems contrary to that, so maybe I don't understand. Maybe debt financing.
SO, the main intention of this seems to be to spin-off the software sales entity, which was the main source of future revenue and excitement.. which means current shareholders getting screwed. I would be thinking class-action lawsuit.. would be a better use of your capital..
But then again, As per my disclaimer, I am NOT a Corporate Finance guy.. this is beyond my depth.
boring .. <yawn>
just causin' trouble...
assistant's Privilege? EOM.
who gave you the right to be King of This Hill.?
this stock is really really really boring. like this post.
<yawn>
I'm an Enigma.
You are beating yourself up and getting all emotional. There is no point in looking at what "could have" happened. That is history. At any given point in time, it is difficult at best to determine what to do. Because of the magic of statistics and data smoothing, the curves all look very smooth after the fact. What was once a sharp upward spike becomes a nice smooth curve. You will have yourself telling yourself that you could have/ should have sold at the very apex. Don't bother with it. It is a waste of time.
You bought with your emotions and now your emotions are your worst enemy. I can't tell you what to do. When I considered posting this, the stock was at .15 and seemed to be stable. It is once again doing it's typical thing. It levels out for awhile, then falls again. This is because (according to a textbook) there 4 types of traders in the market:
- buy and hold
- ST traders (?) not sure of this one..
- profit-takers (selling)
- arbitragers.
At any rate, stocks will always have temporary reprieves on a downward slide. It is the ST traders buying low, then taking profits. It did the ">" pattern thing, now it appears to have collapsed again.
Your mistake is in using the word "bottom". There is no "bottom", in most cases, until the company is profitable. Nothing sustainable anyway. This is where Mr. Hernandez is having trouble as well.
Consider another approach, one which you may consider "backwards". No matter what your emotions are telling you, set financial criteria and then use them to find a list of matching stocks, then let your emotions go to work on those. Simply discount the losers.
Here is what I did up until a year ago, using a stock screening tool:
- find all stocks in a sector of your choosing on a certain market and rank them by revenue growth. (I found over a 3 year period to be the best)
- Start checking them out from the top down. You have automatically selected the single best criteria (revenue growth) and made it the most important contributor to your success. It can be misleading (a company can be a raw startup and have amazing revenue growth... )
- Look at the chart. Buy a book on charting. I can't explain it here. If it is downward, don't consider it further (usually). Level and stable is good.
- You should have a small group of stocks now that interest you. Now let your emotions go to work. Do they have a business idea that you beleive in/ like... think there is massive profit potential.
- now there is a host of things.. usually if they have negative eps they are not ready yet, watch them.
- does the chart represent a buying opportunity?
- I usually check out the financials further then. I use investing.businessweek.com. It gives you a little histogram for every Line Item. You can see a problem at a glance.
- you want to catch them just as they become proftiable... sometimes before.
- seasonality is important. Mid-Dec is perfect.
- I have tried using other criteria, like eps, P/E, etc. They just muddle things up. You find the best stocks right around 0 eps. They are almost there.
The point is, don't get into a uWink in the first place. So, you are in at .19. Perhaps, if you apply yourself using a methodology such as the above, you might find something with much better numbers/ criteria than uWink and decide to sell. At .15 you are looking at a 25% loss. Better than losing the entire thing.... The decision you are facing now, whether to ditch it and take the loss, is a tough one for anybody. According to Mr Hernandez, you have a 90% chance of losing everything.. consider that. Getting pissd off at him will not help you now.
their P&E is worth 3.5M if I rememebr correctly. 1 restaurant per quarter to stay afloat.
Prediction: they will be forced to sell the restaurants to survive. In thinking about it, that is their only option. They could sell WH (as Netman has spoken of) and if they have to.... one of the other two.
After all, it does not matter how many restaurants they have, they only need one as a testing/ demonstration ground.
This eliminates one of theor competitive advantages; multiple revenue streams.
Their may be executive departures... that would reduce their costs.
They might just become a self-sustaing little family-run software company with great potential. That could be exploited by someone with deep pockets.
Count on the announcement to happen by Xmas.. and the stock to find a new low!
well, I admit that the condition of ths company is out of my depth in terms of dealing with financial train wrecks... or what their potential for survival is. I just don't deal in companies like this. Anyhoo, you may be right. I will have to look into how a company can carry on business with no ability to pay their current bills (imminently... )
What I see is a company living in blissful ignorance of their situation... and usually when this happens it crashes suddenly and violently.. I am talking trading halt.. etc.
we will wait and see.
I like the potential takeover outcomes~!
actually, I didn't mention... he talks about their cost-savings initiatives as well in a good light. And yes, with MV coming on line and cost-savings initiative like not using consultants etc, their burn rate will slow.
That is why, the first thing I would do in looking at this is a proforma statement It is just a restaurant, not NASA. It can be easily done. He is still making overly optimistic assumptions.
The only reason I gave this stock another chance at 1.30 was my thought that they were going to break-even with 3 restaurants.. there was no other reason.
not sure where you are at on this stock.. If you bought lower than where it is now.. like at .08 or something.. you should sell some now and take a profit. regardless of what you think might happen with uWink... take away a profit and sleep on the rest.
My personal humble opinion on this column is... this is not serious analysis. Not that the author is a bad guy.. just that an investor should not look here for advice. It is interesting reading on the soft qualitative side of things, which is part of a buying decision, but it is weak on the quantitative side.
I could do a proforma analysis and predict their B/S and I/S for the next several quarters in about 2-3 hours. Really this was not difficult to do. He continues to make these statements about financials which really do not take much analysis to debunk.
The only serious analysis you want to read are those of Wall Street/ Bay Street analysts. Of course, they do not cover penny stocks. The other side of the coin is, they are influenced by their firms and typically rate these stocks too high. However, they are bright boys and generate good reports.
This? interesting to read, that is about it.
Best thing? Use search tools and do your own analysis and stock picking.
"There is not much to read here when he is not posting"?
Do I see a complement somewhere in there, Tankguy? lol...
LMAO!
Netman is right in saying that management may not be able to publish details of deals to protect the potential customer's competitive advantage in the marketplace. One of my other stocks is WIN (Wi-LAN). They do patent licensing for Wi-Fi products. Used to have product, abandoned it to simply pursue patents. They routinely publish that they attained deals, while not revealing the identity fo the customers and sometime the financial terms. Frustrating for investors, but that is reality..
It is unfortunate for investors with this stock that they are in the dark to a great extent about uWink's potential.
I would recommend a "wait and see" appoach. Otherwise is gambling.
This is the author's best work to-date.
In his analysis, he points out that uWInk had a loss of 1.6M in the quarter. That is an astounding number. Incredible and unsustainable. Consider that the Working Capital is like 200k. He then says uWInk has $1.265 million in cash and equivalents on hand with no debt
Not true. It is important not to miss anything when you talk financials. It is too easy to miss the problems before it is too late. uWink has over 1M in ST debt. Debt is Debt, ST or LT. First problem. Then he says ".10/sh in cash". Gettin' the reader excited.. why?
now this:
According to management this should be enough cash to allow uWink to operate without having to tap into the equity markets or raise more capital for 6-9 months, but I would gather it is much closer to the 6 month or less time frame than 9.
Still overly optimistic. Then he talks about reigning in expenditures... that is true, and good.
NOW..THIS IS THE FIRST MENTION OF THIS.. EVER... UWINK IS:
"looking at ways they can raise additional funding to see them through until they get more software and licensing deals." aaahaaa
I knew it... here we go. hang onto your seats.
uWInk trading for around cash value.. more imagery for the reader. Not true. Book value?.. if they sell the restaurants and pack it up.. maybe.
- stock.. investors get screwed and unlikely
- debt.. impossible
- ACQUISITION!!
again one of my dark predictions.. by none other than.. a potential customer like Brinkers!
then he gets negative on their chances of survival. ok he is a realist..
again he makes reference to "inking a deal" with Chilis. That is not true and he should not be saying that until an announcement is made that definitely says that.
Now I stopped reading, not because it was bad, just because I already know the gist of it. I was reading like the first paragraph etc.. all good stuff. He is talking about potential. great.
Overall, this is very well-written. Realistic in it's analysis. He is still somewhat making false positive assumptions about financials and these "deals" but is right in hitting the positives as well. It is true that for competitive reasons details of deals may not be able to be released. Overall, great article.
I like his analysis of financing alternatives and his deduction that an acquisition maybe imminent. Seems pretty obvious to me as the only way out.
I just had a quick look at it. I am having my lunch at work, so I have to be quick. It looks like a really good article. I will have to have a detailed read later. If it is as good as I think it is, I will have nothing but complements about it.
the thing that is different about this company is that they have no debt. It is hard to tell how "bad" things are, because the situation is so unique. Software companies tend to be self-financing and have a lot of cash in the bank. They don't need alot of capital. uWink has hardly any Working Capital, no debt, poor cash flow.. a weird mix.
uWink is burning cash, and fast. Opinions vary about how bad that is... obviously a big deal will save them. I tend to think they will not be able to get debt financing, but really I don't know. I think they would be forced to make changes fairly soon that will depress the stock price further.
My personal opinion is that the best thing to do is to wait until they make some changes, because I don't think they have enough sales activity on the go. Just IMHO.
then, it is fair game... the "risk/ reward ratio is ideal"... at .05?
cci?
how can insiders be ahead on their shares on this one? Noloan (that was actualy a typo, but I will leave it, it is kind of funny.. Freudian slip?).. lol .. owns 500k shares I think. He must be down big time... No, the people who benefitted from the initial runup may be some of the early insiders like the Bushnells, but the other officers came on board afterwards, so that rationale does not work here. It is a strange one all the way around.
..."Noloan" = Nolan.. once in awhile my piano hands are good for a good one.. lol.
I am Canadian. We already had our thanksgiving. It was only a suspicion on my part, but the articles given by Greenband cover it nicely.
what is your transaction cost? Each Buy/Sell combination costs two transaction fees. I was paying $26/trade until I got this package. Now I pay $7/trade. That should figure in your decision to acquire more shares.
What UWKI is doing now is likely a triangular ">" shape stabilization pattern. There was a step-type fall, likely because of the earnings report. We call that a "dump" or a "sh__" whatever you like. After such a movement, a stock will stabilize, usually in the form of a ">" in the chart. According to technical analysis books you read, that is due to Buyers buying low, combined with profit-taking. I would guess that it has peaked at .17 and may fall again, settling at .13-.14 or lower. A downward-pointing ">" is supposed to indicate a pending downward movement, an upward-pointing ">" an impending upward movement.
One problem with this stock is liquidity. It seems enticing to make money at these price levels, because after all the difference between 8 and .16 is 100%, but it can be difficult to get your orders filled. It is much better when it is electronically-traded. But, this is the OTC... what can you do.. so be careful.
Good question. I was wondering myself if they could somehow separately fund the sales operations. This may affect current investors... makes for interesting discussion.
It is always tempting to buy a cheap stock.. remember price is relative. It can always go lower. Speaking of which, I have not looked at it today.