Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
fatbacker
I have spoken to board members, I went to the shareholders meeting and I have a completely different view of the company than you do.
Besides the float is much less than the 3.5 billion A/S, which is what it is not 5 billion. Any other statement you make is not true.
The loan from UPS and the pending loan will mean no need for dilution. The reason given for the A/S increase was to have flexibility and to buy out smaller companies etc. Something that I think they did a few years ago. Expansion and growth. Good things.
If you do not think that this excerpt of your previous post was not complaining then there is no point coninuing discussions. If you think that this is objective then you aren't coherant. Sell your shares stop complaining.
Smartmoney77
Fatbacker quote:
"These people have sold the shareholders short and continue to do so by their ungodly amount of 5 billion A/S that just got voted in. Oh and on that topic. For those that think it is so great that they will only have upto 3.5 billion without shareholder approval obviously forget who will control the voting over the other 1.5 billion (XKEM execs control it). It will be the shareholders paying for this whole deal. They can tell you all they want that they won't dilute but if that is the case then there was no reason for the huge amount of A/S that will eventually end up in the O/S after warrants, debentures and options being excerices take place."
This is still confusing me on what I should do tomorrow...lol
http://quote.barchart.com/texpert.asp?sym=CKYS
fatbacker
It has been posted at least a dozen times on this board why they are deliberately moving slow with distribution. I will list two of them here.
1) It is important to have the distribution channels smoothed out prior to full scale production. This is a smart business move. Not even debatable. Rushing it would be stupid at this point and only cause a logistical nightmare. When the factory is complete XKEM wants to make sure the product will flow smoothly to the people.
2) They need to make sure that anyone that starts using the drug will be able to get it every month or it won't be effective. Remember XKEM is working out of a pilot facility until the factory is complete.
I don't remember if this was stated at the board meeting but I was told this directly by a board member and so have other people here.
Nigerian govt. officials clearly stated at the meeting that the people in Nigeria can afford the drug and there will be no problem once the factory is completed.
If you don't like it please sell your shares, don't complain. BTW-I've noticed from your post history that you are not happy with any of your investments. Maybe you should change your approach.
Good Luck
Smartmoney77
Good stuff.
Nerd
They were tight lipped. I actually had a typed out list of many of the questions here and they asked people to write down a question or two and submit them I handed in the whole list of like ten questions. I saw them holding it and answering whatever they could. They did have an attorney there to make sure they didn't say anything they shouldn't.
I asked all those questions about the pre-purchase but they didn't answer it. The feeling is pretty strong for the Nigerian loan. The pre-purchasae is a wild card. I think we will see steady growth here over the coming months unless there is a large pre-purchase then we will run. IMO
I do fee strongly that the company will deliver on the August PR from the meeting and it was very reasuring that Nigerian officials said the people could afford the drug and there would be no problem once the factory is complete.
Smartmoney77
Electronic Nerd
I was at the meeting and if there is any surprise at least based on the meeting it would be with a govt. pre-purchase. meaning a large one or maybe a new drug. One of the board members did imply things in the works but I have been told directly that they are moving slowly with distribution which I think is smart for many reasons. Still any revenues are a positive based upon past performance.
Smartmoney
stevo1981
You're right. Anyone that calls the company will learn that they are deliberately moving slow toward that number of 20,000 patients. Which I think is very smart.
Smartmoney77
Wow thanks!
Two questions for anyone. What is the expected earnings per share with CKYS? And what is the average PE for this industry?
Thanks
Smartmoney77
These are very realistic numbers. Interesting that my guestimate wasn't too far off from you $1.59 number I had 1.40. We'll use yours because it is more accurate.
I can wait a year or two to get those numbers. You're right this is a growth company so you would use the average or higher to calculate. They do have other drugs in the pipeline too and the rest of Africa to service too with Nicosan. Once the factory is complete it will get really exciting.
My guess is we will see much higher numbers but it is best to be conservative. Even being conservative the numbers are awesome!
Your method is probably better. I just am not familiar with it. If they make 200 million a year what does that put the PPS at with your method?
Thanks, I'm new to this stock. These articles help bring me up to speed.
Traz
I've been thinking on the same line as you here and that is why I am very comfortable with this investment and why I'm trying to be consevative with the numbers too.
Even though we are long we are still really looking short term. I'm looking in the 1-3 year range. I can't imagine 5-10 years from now what a monster this company will be.
Smartmoney77
Traz
Here is a link on Yahoo/Finance. It shows the industry average as 35 for the PE.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=XKEM.OB
From what I understand they will have no problem producing for Nigeria and the whole of Africa from this factory. And producing other drugs for Aids Malaria etc.
I tried to get them to give year by year revenue projections at the meeting. They said they wouldn't do that because the market was too large and just too many variables. I was thinking along the same lines as you because if we can figure the revenue projections we know exactly how much PPS will be in a year, two years etc.
I base my numbers on the August PR. I figure 200 million in revenues. I'm guessing half will be profit because of the low labor costs in Nigeria etc, using 2.5 billion as the float getting earnings of .04 and multiplying by a PE of 35 and that gives me $1.40. The PE can be higher for growth companies like XKEM.
I know that I'm doing some guessing here and that this may be a more conservative method and that the likely PPS may be two or three times this. But I'd rather be conservative.
I think it is too early to tell if we will be there in 1-2 years or 3-5 years. Once the factory is complete we will have a better idea about the timeline. One thing for certain is that we are extremely underpriced and if we took the slow track and got to the 200 million in revenues in 5 years I think we would still se a 0.25 increase in PPS each year.
The other thing is most companies PPS reflect future revenues if they are demonstratable which I think the UPS loan did.. XKEM's PPS hasn't done that yet and it should once the factory is completed. So we may not have to wait until those numbers are being produced to be rewarded here.
GLTY
Smartmoney77
This Q & A from August should give a clearer picture. I'm guessing half revenue is profit and 2.5 billion shares with a PE of 30 (industry average). Earnings per share would be about .04 which gives a PPS of $1.20. All IMO. I think we will have a clearer picture of how long it will take to get there once the factory is completed in the Spring.
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/060816/20060816005208.html?.v=1
Yes but we are not at the pre-factory target of 20,000 patients yet because they are deliberately moving slowly with distribution prior to factory completion. They want to make sure the channels of distribution are flowing smoothly prior to full scale production along with other reasons.
Don't expect big revenue numbers yet but any revenues are a positive and they will continue to grow each quarter IMO. We will have no problem moving the drug once the factory is up and running as per Nigerian govt. officials at the shareholder meeting.
BDB
I think you may have a point......lol
Smartmoney77
I am still very confused about what I should do on Monday...
http://quotes.barchart.com/texpert.asp?sym=CKYS
Wow! You hit it right! I didn't go that heavy I have 2.5 million at .02 average PPS. Started at .0175 and averaged up since yesterday.
I think revenues will take care of everything in time.
Shoot, I thought you left already...lol
Max screwed me and didn't tell me about this until yesterday! J/K
Nice volume!
New HOD coming IMO.
Bought another million.
I bet it is also because you walked away with the feeling that they will deliver on what they said they would and are less worried because I know I did.
BigD, I think the market is reacting positively to your new position. I see green and HOD coming soon here.
Smartmoney77
Max I'm still not sure what I should do here.
Smartmoney77
http://quote.barchart.com/texpert.asp?sym=CKYS
Composite Indicator
Trend Spotter TM Buy
Short Term Indicators
7 Day Average Directional Indicator Buy
10 - 8 Day Moving Average Hilo Channel Buy
20 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy
20 - 50 Day MACD Oscillator Buy
20 Day Bollinger Bands Buy
Short Term Indicators Average: 100% - Buy
20-Day Average Volume - 19880869
Medium Term Indicators
40 Day Commodity Channel Index Buy
50 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy
20 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator Buy
50 Day Parabolic Time/Price Buy
Medium Term Indicators Average: 100% - Buy
50-Day Average Volume - 14767218
Long Term Indicators
60 Day Commodity Channel Index Buy
100 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy
50 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator Buy
Long Term Indicators Average: 100% - Buy
100-Day Average Volume - 9909245
Overall Average: 100% - Buy
Price Support Pivot Point Resistance
0.0200 0.0133 0.0183 0.0233
Keep, no but I think they have a stake in it. I don't know what percentage but if the royalty is 7.5% the amount might be around that. I'm not 100% sure but I think they probably own a small percentage.
Smartmoney77
Yes I agree. What makes me comfortable is that it doesn't seem like they can take it down much more when we hit these levels and there are a few news events coming down the line.
Max, according to the govt. officials at the meeting it doesn't matter who is in office. The officials back it and the people back it, the politics there will not hamper the effort. They explained that foreign companies have been doing business there for 30 years. They said as long as govt. officials back it which they do it doesn't matter who is in office.
Smartmoney
I'll take a five bagger.
Drift this has my interest because it implies that they will have a product to produce. It could just be worded poorly but a PR person should be more precise IMO. In the past they've said research.
"The Xechem Pharmaceutical Plant will also produce other products for the treatment of Malaria, HIV/AIDS and related complications."
I think I saw it show 100% when FMNJ went from .01 to .15....lol
The reason I'm wondering about the wording here is because the guy at the meeting that I think was from XKEM Nigeria seemed to imply good developments were in the works and would be coming before he stopped himself. And he even mentioned that he should stop himself. I don't know if he meant a pre-purchase or some new drug. He was sitting to the right side of the table facing the audience.
The wording on that release says produce not research. That is the first time I've seen that worded that way. It just caught my eye and is fueling the hunch I had at the meeting. I'm going to inquire about it a little.
Please, I'm not trying to fuel speculation I'm just struck by the wording of that and its timing.
Jab, I got this from barcharts. I'm a little confused about what I should do here.
http://quote.barchart.com/texpert.asp?sym=CKYS
OK then it is just the way it is worded.
I understand but the wording on the market wire is as follows
"The Xechem Pharmaceutical Plant will also produce other products for the treatment of Malaria, HIV/AIDS and related complications."
The website quote you provided implies research while the press release from the wire implies production which would mean there is a product to produce. Maybe it was simply poorly worded but if you read that the way it is written the implication is not the same.
Website quote:
"This will be followed by exploring the biodiversity of Nigeria and other African Countries for anti malarial, anticancer, antiviral (including AIDS), antifungal and antibacterial products from natural sources in Nigeria and worldwide."
Am I missing something? Do we have an AIDS drug???
http://www.marketwire.com/mw/release_html_b1?release_id=177240&tsource=3
OK Pennypacker now you got me a bit excited here. Malaria, HIV/Aids.