It is about time ERHE comes back to life.
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Ahhhh! I see your glass half empty (or mostly empty) perspective and can feel your pain. What you say is a possibility. If I believed that this "possibility" as you outlined it were to be the likely outcome, then the wisest approach would be to sell all my holdings at 5 cents and if I felt the future would be bright after this possible 4 cent offering, I would simply buy back in at 4 cents or less for an immediate 20% gain.
Now, here is another possibility in my glass half full perspective:
Within the next 1 to 2 months, ERHE publically announces the secret partner. I would give it at LEAST a 95% probability that Kenya will accept the partnership.
Once the partner company and full carry details are disclosed, ERHE will highly likely have a substantial positive bump in price. My deductive reasoning is as follows: they already said there was a "carry" in this partnership ALONG with the $2million in cash plus other considerations. Even if I took the MOST conservative approach with that language, it would be a full carry on the first well. A better educated guess (knowing ERHE's track record and the fact they are limited in cash flow at this point), I think there is a higher percent chance that the "carry" is for the first "phase" of exploration or 3 to 5 wells. But, let's go with the one well carry for starters. This detail alone should get a noticeable bump in share price. WAG 10 - 20 cents ( and I still say that is loooowwww).
During this same 1 - 2 month period, we already know the 2D seismics are being started/worked on/completed.... whatever. By the end of the first quarter, excitement will be building as all us positive share holders are researching the track record of this now disclosed partner (and of course, bugging the sh** out of their PR department for even more details).
During this same 1 - 2 month period, Tullow/Africa Oil will be announcing the results of 2 - 4 more wells currently in progress in Kenya. So far, they are batting 1000% in Kenya and are very close to officially calling the region "commercial discoveries". This fact alone will provide excitement around other Kenya properties.
Sometime in the 2nd Quarter of 2014, I see ERHE and now disclosed Partner, disclosing at least a general outcome of 2D and FTG combine which should give some kind of general number for "prospective targets". Let's guess 10. With this kind of information, we should start to get a feel by about mid year 2014 of an EDUCATED GUESS for a time table for first exploration well. I do not expect a well to be drilled over night so I am going to further guess it will be 6 - 12 months out after disclosing positive news on number of targets.
With a solid partner, reasonable financial stability for the Kenya exploration, and a solid time table towards a first well drilled, there is no question that the share price will be substantially higher than the current 5 cents. My very conservative guess (IMHO) will be 50 cents minimum sometime before the end of this year.
Why I put all of this out there is to state, ERHE is not a dumb company. YES, they have made mistakes. YES, they are not perfect. But financing phase 2 of Kenya will look a HECK of a lot better at 50 cents 6 months down the road than trying to do some silly 4 cent placement as some suggest.
Fact is, for years, ERHE had ZERO in the bank and chrome carried them for cash flow. They eventually exchanged the debt for shares at a much higher price than when they were carrying them. Look it up. This is a proven fact. I would say a similar approach is MUCH, MUCH more likely than a panic placement at historic lows. But you can stick with your theory if that's what makes you sleep better at night.
To even throw another speculation out there, I think a very similar partner/carry/plus a little cash (like the Kenya property) will be consummated in the next 6 months on Chad. I don't think it will garnish the same kind of hype and excitement that Kenya will but it should provide even more stability on the future of ERHE.
Good luck all!
Wow, are you wishing a Merry Christmas to Ntephe? lol.
I agree, Merry Christmas to all!
That is how I see the splits to.
Unfortunately, I must agree with most of your post.
Very confident for the beginning of next year but these last few weeks of December will likely be low valuation weeks.
In my opinion, the share price has been steadily drifting due to tax loss selling.
Whether most here will admit it or not, almost everyone is sitting in a net loss position (at least on some tax lots of shares). For those who are in to tax loss harvesting towards the end of the year, I would think ERHE would make a pretty good asset to harvest losses from.
We all know the real big money in oil stocks comes from speculation and ultimately the finding of commercial oil.... period. Yes, there are many examples of speculative oil stocks that shoot up on just the prospect of drilling (ie ERHE in the good ol days of JDZ pre-drilling) but we also know that once ERHE and the new secret partner, release news of Kenya approval and the details are given on the partnership, drilling WONT begin the next day. It takes time, planning, probably 2D before a decision on where and when to drill. Easily more than 30 days.
Yes, ERHE share price should have a sizable reaction to the full details (how much cash, how much of a carry, "who" is the partner, and any time table for drilling) when released BUT until there is a set date for actual drilling of the first well (ie. 1st quarter 2015), the run up to pre-drilling won't be in full swing (ie. over $1) IMHO.
Given, tax loss harvesting only takes a 30 day of being out of the stock, I would say the risk is of a somewhat minor run up IF ERHE announces the partner before the end of the year (or your 30 day out period).
Even if NO news comes about the new secret partner until later in January, the share price will probably start ascending as some people buy back in after their 30 days of being out of the stock are done. All just IMHO.
Looking forward to multiple reasons for ERHE to shoot up in 2014.
Good luck all,
Strategyone
I think we should provide DYF the patents of TMOS technology... LOL
Good luck all
That is about the most reasonable post I have seen by anyone in a very long time.
Balanced and realistic.
Is that $12 or $14 by Thanksgiving, Christmas or Easter? LOL
Sounds about right.... bring it on.
Krom,
You and SSC are working too hard on conspiracy theories.
It really is much simpler than you are making it out to be.
The only thing different between this week and two weeks ago when the share price was somewhere around .04 is that ERHE put out two PR's.
One said, a deal has been agreed upon (regarding a LOI that we knew about) with a partner for Kenya BUT waiting on Kenya govt. approval before they release any details. As with most ERHE releases, they didn't even provide guidance on when the general public might hear back from the Kenya government. So, we got a nice but reserved pop in the share price and volume. As you can see from the posters, we have a few of the ol timer's stopping back in and just a few new names. Most likely, the seasoned ERHE traders have been reloading but that doesn't sustain day after day price appreciation.
The second PR said, the FTG has started. ERHE had already PR'd this was going to happen, just not when. We got the "delayed/contingencies BS" PR reiterating that it was still going to happen (regardless of the perpetual doom and gloom posters claiming absolute cancellation). This PR said the FTG has now started. Again, another little pop and again some more volume BUT this PR said nothing about when the FTG would be complete or when the investing public could expect any results from this study.
If you take a step back and pretend you didn't already own ERHE or know anything about this company, what in these two PR's would convince you to rush right out and buy NOW!!!!!..... like I surmised, IMHO a huge amount of this volume the past week are current shareholders buying just a few more shares.... and previous shareholders placing a trading position.
The next real price appreciation will be due to the ACTUAL details of the partnership arrangement (Who the company is, how quickly they are likely to study, 2D, arrange for a rig and start drilling) and the carry details and/or cash details.
I suspect we get the greatest pop in share price when the new partner actually puts out a PR. That may bring in new shareholders.
Btw, IMHO there is no other 'deal' creating an arbitrage opportunity in the near future. The LOI is the catalyst for the next leg up (and the company knows this). Once plans are released from the new partnership regarding timing of 2D and/or Rigs planned, the speculation should drive the price much higher. At this time, ERHE may decide to do another PP to fund the next phase of Chad.
Not without a public disclosure of the details before doing it.
I doubt they would sell on the open market. They would get more for a private placement with an option sweetener.
I am pleased with the two PR's in the past week and it is nice to see some volume and an uptick in price. I am a bit surprised the price did not recover a bit more but I also realize that the volume is primarily from people very knowledgeable of ERHE (and it's past) IMHO. With that, there is going to be limited or sustained volume until one or more pieces of the puzzle are released.
Although both these PR's did wonders to remove the uncertainty of the "LOI" and the "FTG", the investment public still needs more to push the share price higher. I think a huge catalyst will be when the details of the Kenya partnership are disclosed after the Kenya govt. approves of the new operator (which they will IMHO). Once we get a PR from the new operator, people can start evaluating things like: does this company already have experience somewhere around Kenya; do they have infrastructure in place; do they have land based rigs in Africa that can be relocated to Kenya over the next year (or will they announce that kind of detail????); will the new operator be disclosing plans or timing of the next steps (2D, rigs scheduled for 2014 etc.). We then need to know how much cash is involved and how much of a carry is covered. I think it will be very light in cash and a specific number of wells in the carry (not unlimited like the JDZ). But, that should immediately remove the uncertainty that ERHE will make it until drilling. Until people see it in writing from another party, I don't think new money will flow into ERHE, thus holding down the run.
The good news is that as soon as the next PR comes out, our focus should immediately shift to the next phase. We will likely see endless comparisons of the new partner as compared to Sinopec. Communication and experience will be paramount. Heck, there is not much direction to go but up from here or the past.
I feel most of the volume in the last week are the traders repositioning for when the LOI terms are announced. If that news comes out in the next week or two (my guess), there should be quite a nice leg up in share price and the charts.
Good luck all
Unbelievable! At least Emdyal has a little humility and can put a smile on his face with the stock is up 35% in a few hours of one day.
It is all how you look at it and from your post, you can only look for negatives.
Ironically, this is a day, if you really evaluated it truthfully, you should be shopping for the stuffing ingredients for your crow dinner.
Face the facts. Peter Ntephe and ERHE just closed a deal for a partner in Kenya. You said it would never happen with Ntephe. That was false. You said the Kenya was a blank slate and no company wanted the property. That was false. You said with a blank slate, no company would give ERHE a carry. That was false. You said they wouldn't get very much cash. That is unknown but will be known when Kenya approves of the new partnership. Notice how I said "when". It is all how you choose to look at it.
Reality is, this is a high risk investment. ERHE went 0 - 5 on deep water wells in the JDZ. That may have been the end to most other companies that were only holding rights. ERHE and Peter Ntephe managed to obtain rights in Chad and Kenya (goodness knows how, I can't explain it but they did). You said the company has accomplished nothing. That was false. ERHE and Ntephe have now closed a deal. They have disclosed that their partner will be the operator which we ALL agree is great news. This alone has diminished a HUGE uncertainty that has been priced into EHRE for a long time.
ERHE is back in the game. People close to ERHE or following ERHE have an opportunity to get in now for the next leg up. Ironically, it is because ERHE has not disclosed all the news yet that the traders and investors who know this story have an unfair advantage of purchasing more now IF THEY CAN HANDLE THE RISK.
Is it a guarantee??? Absolutely not.
Hey, eat dessert first for life is uncertain.....
Alright, three more weeks to get this thing up to .75 for those options to pay off for the board and officers......
it's still possible...
LOL, Nice post emdyal! At least you still have a sense of humor. Everybody should be smiling today.
Enjoy
NICE! Farmout WITH FULL CARRY!
I guess the bashers were slightly wrong on the value of the Kenya block!
Congrats to all the longs (even the doubters)
One of your best posts yet. Balanced and honest.
yes, that 200 share trade was for a whopping $9.20. I wonder what the commission on that trade was??? lol
Well that is good news.
Meetings took place on Saturday over the weekend and it looks like "Tullow Oil company resumes operations on November 8."
Not bad. 85% of non-technical jobs go to the locals.
It will probably take a few more articles of work resuming before the share price recovers.
Ironically, this may help AOI share price in the short run.
I am guessing that as soon as "they" come to an agreement and Tullow/AOI goes back to work, it will probably be the catalyst to raise the share price above 10. This incident is getting their name in the news and they just need a good piece of news to go along with all the attention to break out.
3 to 4 wells should be completing by years end (assuming the work stoppage ends in the next few weeks).
GLTA
Midtieroil,
I like to read apposing arguments to keep a balance for all opinion related boards. The balanced approach perspective that includes both pros and cons gets my most respect.
Those who scream out "the FTG was cancelled" simply lose ALL credibility in my book when, by public company disclosures, it has not been.
The FACTS are: the company publically disclosed that they have entered into a contract for the FTG study. They gave an "estimated time period" which came and went. They then publically disclosed that it has not been completed but is still planned which means it has NOT been cancelled.
Quite frankly, the FTG study may have been done by now or it may get done next week. We will likely not know until they can publically disclose at least some "interesting" findings from the FTG study.
You also claim you don't believe now nor ever will believe what Peter Ntephe or Dan Keeney say YET you insist on them telling you every single detail of each stage of everything they are doing.
Sorry but you contradict yourself.
Let me use your logic to help you out::::::
Since you don't believe whatever Peter or Dan say, and they said they have hired a company to do an FTG study, then by your logic, they never hired a company to do the FTG study in the first place and therefore, you should not care that an estimated time frame has come and gone. You should be very happy.
Good luck to you in your logic.
Here is my estimate of next news prior to the work stoppage:
Agete-1 was spudded on 9/16. If similar timing to Ekales which took just under 2 months from spud to news release, we should hear around November 15th about these results. Although my bet is we start hearing rumors within a week or so if history repeats itself.
Then within one week or so of that, news should hit on Tutule-1 and again within about a week of Tutule-1 news, we may hear of Bahasi-1. Nice!
With the announced work stoppage this week and the estimate that work will begin again next Monday or Tuesday, I would only delay my estimates by a week or so. That said, I have not researched whether the announced work stoppage was on these specific three wells out of the 5 AOI is currently drilling.
Midtier,
Now that you brought it up, you said you went to ERHE shareholder meeting last year in October. This is supposed to be an "annual" shareholders meeting, not a "when ever I feel like it" meeting. I know many put up a big stink about them skipping a year or more prior to that meeting last year. It looks like we are going to have to "ask" for another one.
This is one argument I agree with you 100% on the way they should be doing it. I do NOT understand for the life of me, why ERHE does not simply hold an annual shareholder meeting regularly (every year). This would give them the opportunity to get in front of any real concerned shareholders who have the opportunity to go and explain the state of the union better.
I get just as frustrated as the rest when I hear nothing from the company over an extended period of time.
That is great. Back to drilling next Monday or Tuesday.
Also, well played by Tullow/AOI. By stopping work, it shows respect to the locals complaint. Then allow the local government to come in and be the go between because they understand the importance of the overall business to the area. This type of back and forth will always occur when going into new territories.
GLTA
You are right, the goats were given to ERHE. Again, I couldn't find any internet links to articles where Tullow or Africa Oil received goats from the locals. 1 up for ERHE Management and PN...
As for the blue tie, again you are right. Forgot the blue tie but I did notice that big smile that got investors all heated up a number of years ago that led to a nice run up in share price. Still waiting on that bump in price... lol.
Yes and he is insisting on a free carry for the goats....
Here's the problem:
Neither Tullow nor Africa Oil gave the locals a goat! At least I couldn't find any links to such a public demonstration or gift....
See how great ERHE management team is!
The other thing great about that comment is that AOI now has enough funding to get them through mid 2015 also so analysts (or us) can now do rough calculations on what 1 billion barrels in reserve should be worth (market cap wise) and divide it by the current outstanding share count to get a rough estimates share price for mid 2015.
Any takers?
That is somewhat interesting.
This Private Placement to Chandler Corp (announced yesterday) looks to be a separate deal than the $450 million raised a little over a week ago at the $8.25 price. This PP announced yesterday by Chandler Corp is at a price of $8.53 and equals $58,899,650 additional to AOI.
Unless I am missing something?
It is good that it is at a higher price but I don't understand why AOI has not announced this separate placement yet.
Anyone?
Weekend Opinion.
IF there is some kind of buy-in/stock purchase in the works (which I don't believe there is), there is no way it comes in at less than 7.5 cents and likely more than .10.
EVERY board member and every current officer participated in the 7.5 cent offering early this year. There is no way a current employee or officer would want to sell shares under the board and officers offering buy in price. It would be political and career suicide.
In addition to this obvious reason, why on earth do some people think the price would be going down in value considering what is currently happening around ERHE's properties.
Since the offering was announced at 7.5 cents nearly a year ago, the following things have happened:
1) Tullow/Africa Oil has drilled 4 wells in Kenya. ALL four have hit oil and they have now announced it is commercial in quantity. They have plans to drill something like 15 more wells in Kenya next year alone. Prior to the first hit of oil "on shore", Kenya was dead property. My guess is that ERHE's block 11A is worth .30 - $1.00 alone per share depending on percentage lost in a buy-in scenario. Not necessarily tomorrow BUT before drilling happens. Once oil is struck, it is anyone's guess where it goes from there.
2) New interest by some Chinese consortium has recently been announced for STP EEZ zone. Nothing to write home about yet but facts are facts. ERHE had FIRST pick of blocks and they picked the two blocks closest to the two islands of STP and closest to deep water oil finds between the islands and mainland mass. A lot of work needs to be done to improve the value of these blocks but they are worth something and worth more now than they were 1 year ago IMHO.
3) Chad properties - whether we like it or not, the ERHE plan is progressing (rather slowly I might add) but the next phase has started as PR'd. In addition to that, it is obvious that ERHE has successfully delayed the Chadanian demand on the signing bonus. I will bet ERHE finds a partner and announces partner/plans/and payment of the signing bonus on that property at about the same time.
To me, if feels like news is close regarding the LOI/Kenya properties. Nothing, and I mean absolutely NOTHING is priced into ERHE at this point in time. There has not been anything but negativity around ERHE for years now since the first failed drilling results from the JDZ. Unless something dramatically bad happens soon, there is no where to go but up from this point IMHO.
Good luck all and kudo's for those adding at this point.
Great. Thanks Red. I guess I could have looked up the details myself...lol.
Here is what I found:
Agete-1 was spudded on 9/16. If similar timing to Ekales which took just under 2 months from spud to news release, we should hear around November 15th about these results. Although my bet is we start hearing rumors within a week or so if history repeats itself.
Then within one week or so of that, news should hit on Tutule-1 and again within about a week of Tutule-1 news, we may hear of Bahasi-1. Nice!
Looks very interesting.
If true, double digits soon and no more Midtieroil.....lol
jk, MTO. Looking forward to your dissection of this companies management and potential.
let's all be happy.... Life is Good!
Red,
Approximately when will the shareholders hear about the results of any one of the current drilling sites and which one in your estimation?
What more shareholder value could you ask for? LOL
Enjoy your weekend. Find something positive to think of and bring it Monday.
Why is it that these analyst reports are always behind on their information.
It is still great to see that they still consider AOI undervalued at this share price and that it is based on lesser numbers than actual.
They state "the company is nearing the important commercial threshold that could move into development". I thought the company already stated they have reached the commercial threshold. Just think what any one of the 3 current wells being drilled and should be reporting over the next month, will do if any find or confirm oil.....
double digits should be soon then.
Great to hear.
Not a bad day. Up 14.05% (Corrected from schwab real time) at the close. Near the day's high. Well above the PP funding price announced yesterday. And knowing AOI will PR results of 3 wells in the next month or so.
All estimates by analysts that follow AOI are well above the current price (and rising) without the results of the current wells being drilled included in their estimates.
Market cap around 2.3 billion and sitting with over half a billion in cash. Funding more than enough for the next years HUGE drilling campaign.
This should propel past the all time highs shortly IMHO.
Good luck all.
It's all a matter of perspective.
When the 75 cent options were issued, it was before the Kenya block was acquired. It was before the Chad PSC signing and/or the next steps announced. It was before Total drilled a second hole in JDZ block 1.
There are many possibilities that could have happened that very well could have propelled the stock price above .75 within the last year.
If JDZ block 1 would have been commercial, blocks 2, 3 & 4 may have had more perceived value IF someone could drill again and make a find to tie back. That didn't happen. Of course, in some people's mind, it is Ntephe fault that Block 1 wasn't commercial.
I am sure ERHE has been shopping for a partner in Chad this whole time. Unfortunately, that partner hasn't been found yet. Maybe that asset is just a matter of time. Who knows. So far, that asset has not really cost ERHE much since they have not paid the $5 million signing bonus. Quite frankly, ERHE is playing that asset JUST right considering their financial position. They may still find a partner or they may end up relinquishing part or all of that asset. Regardless, I hold Ntephe only slightly at fault for not finding some kind of partner to progress faster on that asset. On the flip side, I give Ntephe credit for NOT pushing ahead faster without funding or partner.
We know there is an LOI in play in Kenya. IF news breaks with ANY kind of partner that will pay for and push forward on a drilling program, this is a TOTAL game changer. Even if ERHE gets little to no cash but gets a carry, this is an extreme win. I give major credit to Ntephe for being a part of getting the Kenya asset and getting an LOI in play (whether he was a major player in either of those roles, I don't really know and neither does anyone else no matter how much they claim!!!). The jury is still out on whether ERHE comes through on this LOI play or not. I am not pleased with the time it has taken but I will reserve judgment until a partner is announced or the asset expires (turned back in).
Two side note issues. Whether we like it or not, I also give Ntephe TOTAL credit for playing both the EEZ and the JDZ block 5 & 6 EXACTLY the way they have. Unless a partner is found, we are in NO hurry to push these two assets forward. They are simply more arrows in ERHE quiver for the future. They should continue to delay on BOTH of those fronts until some other company builds more interest in the area, hence bringing more value to these assets without costing ERHE money now.
I am certainly not holding my breath but if ERHE announces a partner in Kenya within the next 45 days or so, those .75 cent options are still a possibility. Since I am not a recipient of those options, I really don't care about the .75 mark by Dec. 7th. Heck, at this point, I would be happy with .25 - .50 by year end which I feel is well within reach if they get a partner soon. If that happens, Ntephe may deserve credit for saving ERHE from the brink of disaster. Who knows......
Good luck all.
Ntephe just bought 100 shares at the market......lol
PP news. Good news, bad news
I would have much preferred the rumored $700million for 10% but AOI did successfully just raise another $450million in a very tough market for raising money.
Last year, the share price was hovering around $10 - $11 when the PP was announced for $7.75. That is what dropped the share price so badly. This year, the share price is hovering around the actual PP price of $8.25. This shows very good strength in the current share price AND the expected gain from $8.25 range.
Unfortunately, it will take more news to move off the $8.25 but with 4 or 5 active holes being drilled, this still could have substantial gains from here before year end.
Good luck to all
Now Jimbo, don't go around showing links of actual facts that might suggest some of ERHE assets have value......or starting a real discussion with supporting evidence.
There are some here that insist NOTHING ERHE has is of value (including the management, the primary owner and his contacts, the BOD, and all employees regardless of their credentials). Remember NOBODY wanted EHRE's block in Kenya and Every company in the world had a chance at it before ERHE. It must be worthless! Look at the share price. That MUST prove that everything ERHE owns is worthless!... (yet they refuse to sell - oxymoron!)
Oh wait. Maybe we should have real scientists/geologists analyze data that is available and then progress towards doing further studies (insert FTG study here for starters). I know, I know.. summer is over and therefore management MUST have cancelled all hopes of moving forward (NOT). The world must be coming to and end soon because ERHE's low share price proves it.
Just a little subtle humor to pass time until more real facts come out.