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The bid right now is actually higher than the ask.
Sorry Manti, I guess I was incorrect my mistake.
The OTCBB and the market makers are the main culprits here. Their behavior is nothing short of criminal.
Check out MOBL. It just experienced what ERHE did two days ago. Yesterday MOBL announced a great earnings report on a huge increase in revenues 20 minutes before the closing bell. The stock ran about 20% in 20 minutes and naturally you would have expected a huge increase today. So what happened today? You would have expected the stock to soar.
What happened was the same exact thing that happened to ERHE two days ago. There was massive buying interest at the open but it was blunted by MM's dumping shares on the market to put a lid on the rising share price. Now the stock is actually down on the day. Unbelievable they can get away with that.
Thats why we need to get on a real exchange as quickly as possible and get away from the crooks on the otcbb.
Disclaimer, i dont own any MOBL, nor do I recommend it, I am watching as an interested observer.
Maybe one of these days ERHC will realize that a PR Campaign is important. We need to get off the otcbb and get on a real exchange.
I would be interested to know when ERHC is contemplating moving to a larger exchange. What plans do they have to implement this strategy, at what time frame, and which exchange.
Hopefully sooner rather than later.
Hopefully ERHC management has close contacts with the SEC and has told them to be on the look out.
One thing we need to all do is take a deep breath and realize it has only been two days since awards were announced. Step back and look at the big picture.
I believe we are all (myself definitely included)overreacting. Lets see what transpires over the next couple of months. ERHC will have its run. It might start tomorrow or it might start two months from now. Who really knows. But the general trend will be up.
I think we are all exhausted from the whole long, drawn out saga of the awards process. We are like kids who have been spanked too many times and now we are still shell shocked.
Everything is on course, except our short term expectation of the share price.
I dont know Rancho. But I wish some of the people on this board and RB would go over to yahoo and start taking some people on and spreading the ERHC gospel.
Im a little worn out at the moment. Its always me defending ERHC against 20 other people
Where the h_ll are you guys when I need you lol?
Many people in the market use the balance sheet as their guiding principle when they invest in a stock. They are "balance sheet driven" so to speak.
So the average oil and gas investor takes one look at ERHC and sees 700 million shares outstanding and no revenues and they run for their lives. If you dont believe me go to yahoo message boards where ERHC is discussed. That is all they ever talk about is the lack of revenues and the oustanding share count.
They dont bother to do the DD after that because they are immediately turned off by the balance sheet. That is why their is sometimes such a disconnect on this stock.
These people dont realize the vast amount of resources that ERHC is sitting on. They havent done their homework.
So that is one of the obstacles we face. You have to think outside the box to appropriately value this stock and many investors refuse to do that.
The post of the day from deadeye:
certainly understand the disappointment on the minds of many of us investors. Yet, if we take a step back and see where we are . . . we'll see that we're in a damn good place.
In 2003 we were up 141%. In 2004 we were up 65%. YTD we're up 50%. And the best part of the company is ahead of us. So gripes about stock performance can only come from short term traders. And isn't that the norm rather than the exception?
Yesterday we went up +.13. Why not accept a -.07 consolidation? Candles show a top above a top and a bottom above a bottom. That's an uptrend. MACD has turned positive reversing a month long downtrend.
An extended breakout on high volume of the Bollinger Bands indicate an expected reversal to scrub off the overly bullish enthusiasm. Very normal behavior.
Expectations being set so high make disappointment an automatic response. If you're wondering why you're not making money, the answer is most certainly that you haven't been invested long enough.
We, no doubt, have mitigated a lot of the risk in this micro cap growth issue. We've left much of the political anxiety behind. Looking forward this issue may trade not on news of corruption, payoff, politics but on contracts, production and performance.
I've never felt better about an investment.
Naturally, we're sitting on a 700mm OS company with zero revenues and profits. The way to mitigate this reality is to strike oil, pump volume, sell it into the global economy, hire a geological survey and put $8 per barrel on our balance sheet. Bingo: a $10+ stock price.
And all you have to do is wait for Pioneer, Devon and Noble to do their expertise. And wait about 6 quarters. And reward your patience with a 10-15 bagger.
I've never felt better about an investment.
deadeyeca
Walldog, I thought that was widely known already. The highest legitimate bid in a block is what will be paid. The article is correct IMHO. We pay the amount Anadarko bid in Block 4 because it was the highest legitimate bid.
Well put. The MM's sell into the rallies to put a lid on the momentum. This prevents the stock from moving and it allows them to accumulate cheap shares as individual investors give in and sell. It only takes a little bit to bring the stock price down and alot to make it go up. But once the MM's have accumulated enough cheap shares they will let it run.
At least thats the theory anyway. Dont know if its correct.
Institutions trade in large sums of money and large blocks of shares, dwarfing the action of the individual investors. An institutional purchase or a sale of a stock usually means thousands of shares and millions of dollars moving the stock. Moreover, an institution must commit itself to spend days, weeks, or even months to fulfill its goal."
"Why? Because if an institution wants to acquire, say, a 1% stake in a stock, it cant do it in one fell swoop. If it did, the buying flurry would make the stock's price rise too fast, forcing the institution to chase its tail as it watches its own buying activity raise costs. Instead, institutions pace themselves, buying smaller yet significant amounts of shares at a time."
"That's called accumulation, and its one of the most important signs that are stock has sunny days ahead. Often, a stock will make modest, little noticed price gains on above average volume before it makes a major advance, or just as it begins one."
http://biz.yahoo.com/special/volume04_article1.html
Macdad great post. I agree that "accumulation" is the key word of the day and the next several days for that matter. Once the accumulation is complete then the stock will run.
Selling into rallies is a way for the big boys to keep the price depressed enough so they can accumulate.
I know we are all fixated on the stock price right now. But congratulations are certainly in order to the JDA as well as Obasanjo and de Menezes for getting this thing done.
Also remember the chartists will be watching today as well. We go up 20% to 30% today on huge volume and they will take notice. Those in otcbb land will take notice.
That will put us any many people's radar's tomorrow who dont currently follow the stock.
Two or three up days in a row and this thing will launch.
Although I dont think it will take months.
I agree with Stockspartan's take and I remember him saying this on RB:
Guys Stockspartan here:
I predicted a long time ago on RB that people would sell shares into the news to try and cap the rally.
I told you that wall street and the big boys would want to buy the stock WITHOUT taking the risk we individual investors had to.
So they would wait until AFTER the awards and would try to depress the share price by dumping shares into the rally.
Then when the individual investors sell and bring the price down they will be accumulating. After they have accumulated a significant amount of shares then they will let it run and it will pop significantly.
How long will that take? Days? Weeks? or Months? is difficult to tell. But I have seen this happen many times before.
By Anonymous, at 1:19 PM
Some company should offer a buyout right now. This stock is dirt cheap at the moment.
What will be very helpful is when they announce all 5 blocks and the percentages each company won in all 5. Right now they are just announcing the operators.
This will take some time, but as news filters throughout the week the price will climb.
UPDATE 1-Nigeria-Sao Tome award five offshore oil blocks
Tue May 31, 2005 12:07 PM ET
(Updates with details)
ABUJA, May 31 (Reuters) - Sao Tome and Nigeria awarded five offshore oil exploration licences on Tuesday after a turbulent five-month delay plagued by disagreements between the countries and accusations of corruption.
A consortium of ERHC Energy (ERHE.OB: Quote, Profile, Research) and Devon (DEV.N: Quote, Profile, Research) won a 65 percent stake and the operatorship of block two, while the operatorship of block four, the other most highly contested block, was won by a consortium of ERHC Energy and Noble.
Anadarko (APC.N: Quote, Profile, Research) won a 51 percent share and the operatorship of block three, the consortium of International Commerce and Communications (ICC) and Oil Exploration Consortium (OEC) got 75 percent and operatorship of block five, while block six went to Filtim Huzod which secured 85 percent and operatorship of the acreage.
The Joint Development Authority announced the winners after Nigeria's President Olusegun Obasanjo and Sao Tome's Fradique de Menezes endorsed the recommendations of the ministerial council at a meeting in the Nigerian capital of Abuja, the JDA said.
The offshore blocks are in the deep waters of the Gulf of Guinea, one of the world's exploration hotspots since a series of huge oil discoveries over the last decade.
"Interpretation carried out by WesternGeco has enabled the identification of 56 prospective structures within Blocks 1 to 9 in the JDZ, of which 17 were defined as prospects and 39 as leads. WesternGeco used reservoir parameters similar to those known from nearby fields in Nigeria and Equatorial Guinea. Combined recoverable reserves potential of the 17 prospects was estimated by WesternGeco to be 14.4 billion barrels of oil. The scope of the WesternGeco report was to interpret and map seismic data, highlight prospectivity and calculate volumetrics."
CONGRATULATIONS EVERYBODY!!!!!!
(Your all probably trying to buy more shares right now lol, I dont have any money left to buy lol)
That is great that the JDA called Mark. Give Mark alot of credit. He developed a great rapport with these guys. And thats cool that they took the time to actually call him.
Great job Mark and great job JDA!
P.S. Dadd you said we are "in" blocks 2 and 4
Did youn mean to say ERHC win blocks 2 and 4??
The translation we recieved where he said that was a report out of Radio ADP Africa. Homeport translated the report and Carvhalo's comments were the follwing:
Oil Min Carvhalo, just returned from JMC Abuja meeting, told Friday news conference that USD $49.2 Million from B-1 is expected to enter STP's coffers very soon.
"Documents were approved for this sum to be distributed" and the two deleagtion chiefs determined such take place "as rapidly as possible," he said.
"Still no consensus" on Blocks 2,3, and 4 and positions presented for "later decision taking," while in STP the Oil Council "to meet to make its contribution."
The matters under discussion have already been submitted to the heads of state "and can't say there's a total consensus."
As matter of "credibility" for JDZ, if STP doesn't act more rapidly on 2nd licensing round Nigeria will "discount" (call in?) STP's JDA debts along with B-1 signature bonus.
Carvalho estimated STP's JDA's debts for 2002-2004 at USD 10 million.
No but Troavado's poodle is named Mongo.
By the way, Im not saying Travoado is a "bad guy". Im just saying that he bet on different horses than us.
Maybe Mongo can fill us in.
Rancho, I think the key question in this whole thing is where does Menezes stand in relation to Travaodo.
Is he a puppet of Travaodo? Is that the true reason they hand picked de Menezes? And is that the reason up until now that he has refused to sign off on awards?
One has to wonder....
I was hoping they were adversaries but I really dont think they are.
By the way Rancho. Why do you think EEL has made out so well in the Sao Tome EEZ?
Answer: Trovaodo
I should have bought some EEL stock a few months ago. I was looking at it and didnt pull the trigger. The price has almost doubled since then.
Rancho I respectfully disagree. Trovaodo imho is holding up the whole process. Barry Morgan said as much in his last update. He probably has connections to EEL and Anadarko and will stop at nothing to get his way. Thats why the blocks in dispute are 2, 3, and 4. The very blocks that Anadarko and EEL are in.
Some members of the JMC are probably under Trovaodo's influence as well and that is why they refused to sign off on awards. Even though the World Bank said that the companies selected had the best technincal capability. Why do you think they would take a stand and go directly against the World Bank? Its because of Trovaodo imho.
Remember, Sao Tome is a small country and those that are on theses various committees worked along side and under the Trovaodo's. So they still have immense loyalty to them. In addition many figure he will probably be the next President at some point in the future. So he still carries alot of clout.
Dont forget it was the Travoado's who hand picked Menezes. Maybe Menezes is a puppet for Travaodo and Travaodo is really the one calling all of the shots.
Gigwoof I did bring up that point regarding Carvhalo. I agree, this is the biggest news that nobody seems to be talking about. Here is my post again.
Joe in response to your post #39 under the last article I wanted to respond.
Carvhalo also stated that if the Sao Tomeans dont make a quick decision then they will be putting the reputation of the JDZ at stake and as a result the $10 million they owe will be demanded immeditely from the Nigerians and the Sao Tomeans will NOT receive the $49 million in signature bonus money from Block 1.
So yes he did say they would receive the block 1 money with the added caveat that they actually had to sign off on awards first to recieve this money.
IMHO these statements by Carvhalo, (the Oil Minister from Sao Tome) were the most significant developments since the JMC Meeting and should have gotten more play and discussion.
This is positive news to me that he is talking in this manner. Maybe he is setting up the people of Sao Tome to understand that awards must be signed off on or there will be serious consequences. Thus making it easier for de Menezes to sign off.
I wrote this in response to a comment Joe Shea made regarding Carvhalo saying that Sao Tome woud recieve the Block 1 money. I think Carvhalo's comments are postive.
Joe in response to your post #39 under the last article I wanted to respond.
Carvhalo also stated that if the Sao Tomeans dont make a quick decision then they will be putting the reputation of the JDZ at stake and as a result the $10 million they owe will be demanded immeditely from the Nigerians and the Sao Tomeans will NOT receive the $49 million in signature bonus money from Block 1.
So yes he did say they would receive the block 1 money with the added caveat that they actually had to sign off on awards first to recieve this money.
IMHO these statements by Carvhalo, (the Oil Minister from Sao Tome) were the most significant developments since the JMC Meeting and should have gotten more play and discussion.
This is positive news to me that he is talking in this manner. Maybe he is setting up the people of Sao Tome to understand that awards must be signed off on or there will be serious consequences. Thus making it easier for de Menezes to sign off.
The Sao Tome system is a broken one if this now has to go back to the Oil Ministry or Parliament. One person and one person only should have the final decision on this in Sao Tome and that should be de Menezes.
The whole problem with Sao Tome is that there are so many decision makers and factions that it makes it almost impossible for them to make any kind of decision.
Not just with regards to oil but in every facet of life.
elsie,
That artricle was posted a few weeks ago and is an older article. And with all due respect, the New Yorker is a left leaning publication that is anti-big oil imho. So of course they are going to portray things the way they did. Just like the LA Times did in their story.
So take it with a grain of salt. Although the key part in the article was the fact that the Trovoado's are basically the ones that hand picked de Menezes.
He seems to be a reluctant leader who really doesnt want the title. And that connection to the Trovaodo's is very interesting to say the least.
Exxon, Anadarko, EEL will rule the STP EEZ if things continue on this course.
And by the way, if indeed this does go to arbitration then that will happen fairly quickly as well. I dont agree with those that think arbitration will take years. If it goes to arbitration it will be concluded this summer. And guess who will win the arbitration?
Nigeria will. Thats why they have taken such a hard line. Many of these issues have already been brought up to third parties and the third parties have already sided with the Nigerians.
So the issues are already known and have been decided on. The arbitration will be quick and painless if it were to come to that. Im sure the US Government is applying tremendous pressure as well.
So guys cheer up.
Damnit! (Thats my Mark vol impression lol)
Kobi is absolutely right.
By: kobiashi2000
29 May 2005, 10:53 AM EDT
Msg. 47886 of 47889
(This msg. is a reply to 47881 by mrogop.)
Jump to msg. #
It was all there if you read the treaty. When they wrote and decided to sign the treaty, the treaty negotiators had a light bulb go off over their heads and say hey, "wait a minute, what happens if we have unresolvable conflicts that both countries can't decide on?" "What the heck are we gonna do?" Well they came up with the bright idea of third party arbitration, and both sides decided to abide by the decision of the arbitrators. Theres going to be no war, no invasion by Nigeria, no break up of the JDA, the JDZ won't come to a close, you just have to go through the process to break this current dispute of whether the operatorship should go to companies that will end up paying STP an additional 3.5-10 million a block, or go with companies that are offering faster drilling timeframes to get billions of dollars in oil out faster. WHo do you think the arbitrator will pick? I still think O and M can work this out over the next two weeks, but if not the arbitrators will, its not the end of the world for investors, just those who make money trading for a living.
"Fradique actually comes across as a regular Joe doing what he can after having been "nudged" into service by the Trovoada boys, and Patrice seems more like a pimp than a politician."
That should tell you all you need to know. Fredrique was nudged into service by the Trovado boys.
Is there any wonder why he wont sign off on awards?
Because he is a puppet for Travado thats why.
And Trovado wants Anadarko and EEL to be the big winners. Not ERHC, Noble and Pioneer.
Thats why Blocks 2, 3, and 4 are the ones at issue.
IMHO
Maybe it is true that menezes has no intention of signing off on the awards and never did. He wants this to go to arbitration that way even if he loses he can say that he stood tall against the Nigerians and didn't sign off on awards.
Gigwoof, thats true. I was thinking only of why the Nigerian Press didnt report on the comments made by the Sao Tomean delegates when they returned home.
Maybe the Nigerian Press is like the JDA itself. They dont want to make it seem as if there is anything wrong. And like I said they dont respect Sao Tome and the problem in the JMC is with Sao Tome.
What is your opinion?