is... a buy and hold investor of dividend US and Canadian stocks
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"no wheres"? Stud, you are giving us Bigger Guys a bad name. People will think we are stupider than we really are.
I find it very cool how that link continues to update as time passes...
by the way... kudos for selling.. that takes fortitude.. time to move on.
I can show you why. Look at the following chart. It shows UWKI against Volume and an indicator called Money Flow index (MFI). You will see that movement in the MFI predicts movement in the stock itself. This is rare. Roughly speaking, it means that money is flowing out of the stock (people are selling) based on the average prices during the trading session. Lower volumes generally means that orders at that price range are being exhausted and that the price will likely fall.
Generally, high volumes means that the current trend will continue... lower volumes otherwise. In this case, with this stock... it seems to stay at a level then abruptly fall. It has been doing that ever since 5.00.
Wonder if this is going to work..
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UWKI&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p96412459870
what is with this company? I picked up this thing back last December and at the time it looked like a superstar. i have gotten out of it for the most part because of the general downturn, but not it is totally sucking. I really don't understand it. I see no particular reason.
Can anybody explain this to me?
correction: I don't have the liquidity to go short. and i seem to remember 500k shares from way back.
Noticed that the institutional holders % has gone down from 9% to 8% or something. there is one major instit holder... 1M shares.
good points. I do not have the liquidity to go long and do options, or else I would. but you make an excellent point.
I just looked at "Major Holders" on Yahoo. It says N/A for Nolan. Not sure why. 365k for Wilkness. I guessed at the 500k shares.
I can't really see the difference between public/ private funding vis a vis this company. Their issues don't have much to do with that. The only difference public funding makes is the level of scrutiny they are under... i think. I would think they would be able to raise more capital with public funding.. they just handled it badly. Maybe it is more difficult to open a restaurant than I would believe...
I think every investor did badly this year. If you did not do badly, you bought last year or years ago and held... bad idea. If you sold and took your loss/gain before the market bottom.. kudos.
I have shared picks with Raw as well. In some cases I have disagreed with him. My strategy is now a combination of the two (his and mine). I still think he should buy some Canadian stocks!
this is the name of the game.
note this was not removed as a personal attack. Moral of the story: don't take everything so personally.
good answer. We must all remember that this is the internet. Although I have received some good information on good stocks via this forum... I have my own search methodology and would have found them myself with enough work. To be reliant on any persona on this board is ridiculous.
the point is.. is he penniless or something?
what does that mean? "he has left all his past with nothing."
consider Nolan has 500k shares. That may give you pause. I think he must have tried.
what is your point?
what is your point?
Time to move on guys. No point calculating how much is lost. I hate looking backwards. What really bothers me about this is that it appears as if uWink mangement never cared about the stock price. The financial statements (lack of cost controls, lack of viable strategies going forward) radiate that to me. Just my opinion.
In looking at this deal... it obviously has been cooking for awhile. In looking at the terms.. it is advantageous that the stock price be as low as possible. I had the feeling, in looking at the chart, the lack of news, and the F/S, that management did not care about this stock. I was beginning to think they had something cooking for themselves. I could never have guessed this, but i am glad that at least the suspense and waiting is over.
Not sure what you are saying yes to.
Honestly people, all jokes aside, I hope that everybody gets over/through this situation, whatever it might mean for them.
It is a personality type thing. I am an INTP. That means Introverted iNtuitive Perceiver. I will let your actuarial brain ponder that for a moment.
At any rate, the .08 Price Point is called a "level" in charting terms. Just like an airline, uWink Air will find a way to crash through the stratosphere and go into yet another death-defying dive.
Only it is not defying death very well this time out... it may very well hit the ground.
No way buddy. I am still a smart guy. This slide started Dec 2. That is called "insider trading". It happens all of the time. The fact that it held the line today means nothing. The guys that had Buy orders in are a little late reading the nes that is all. A temporary break from the slaughter.
I thought you were not a believer in charts anyway? what is your expression?
"Rawnoc and his money are soon parted" or something?
The battle continues tomorrow.
That article from Mr Hernandez is the best he has written yet. btw, he agreed with ME that the company intends to go private, something which you failed to see. Also, Mr Wilkness is leaving (something I predicted back in the summer) to go to the new company (which I also predicted, reducing costs at uWink).
Overall, the article paints such a negative picture that there is no point in anybody holding onto these shares, and certainly no institutional investor could make a case for holding them, especially if they can take the loss and write it off against a capital gain over the last 3 years.
It did not fall today as much as one would have thought.. but.. give it time. That delayed reaction. There might have been serious support at .08. Existing Buy orders got filled. If the recent chart is any indication, if there is further damage to be done to UWKI it will happen over the next couple of days as the Sell orders pour in.
No, I actually think I am right on. Give it some time. I have noticed over the last little while that this stock takes some time (usually 1 day) to react to events. Somewhat like when the average person goes to McDonalds. I think that is because the orders are not electronic and have to be faxed in somewhere (the MM?), where they are assembled before being executed. The price is also somewhat arbitrary for the same reason. Hence the use of the Money Flow indicator in predicting the demise of this stock. The orders are executed at a certain price, which is not automatically adjusted, then the price is moved to reflect market conditions.
Big volume today... so the Sell orders are coming in. Give it a day or so... should be a big movement.
Disclosure: I am not a uWink stockholder at present.
Disclaimer: Really, I just don't know what is ogign to happen.
Further disclaimer: I am not an Actuary, just a Finance MBA. Hence I really don't know much of anything.
Holy shit man.. you are sounding intelligent. Coming up with all kinds of completely useless but interesting statistics and rambling on... you are not Canadian as well by any chance?
Maybe I have no choice but to let you share my space here.
Actually Raw, with such a low level of financial knowledge (first year high school accounting?), you probably should not be investing.
Things like the Matching Principle, GAAP, are post-secondary subjects. What you are talking about is simple bookkeeping.
Good Luck.
ok..What does everybody else think about this question?
Can a business operate with no Working Capital and rack up lots of debt... in the hope that business will magically turn around, sales will double, and they will suddenly become profitable and be able to pay all of their bills on time as well as repay all the accumulated liabilities..
lol.. I am posted-out for this evening.
Americans... in debt up to your eyeballs... no wonder we are in such a mess.
Companies with ST liabilities usually have some means of paying them back, and the creditors know what those means are. As soon as the creditors get a whiff that their debt might turn bad, that is it. Lines of credit get shut down... supplies top coming.
Right now, as we speak, the only way uWink can pay their ST debt is by selling WH. And of that I am dead right.
They cannot borrow money. They cannot get credit. They are a money-losing operation, so what financial institution would lend to them or give them credit, especially now?
if what I am saying is not true, how are they going to pay their 1.2M ST Liabilities?
eh?
Actually you have the Matching Principle wrong. What you are talking about is Revenue Recognition. I noted the 10-minute delay between my post and your response. I am sure that search engine technology available today could have found the information on Principles of GAAP faster than that. No Matter.
Matching Principle = Matching Revenues with the Costs incurred in earning those revenues. So, it makes logical sense to separate the licensing business from the restaurant business as they have done.
Revenue Recognition = reporting revenue when it is "earned" or recognized. Different thing.
Anyway... to me it seems so obvious that it is really beyond proof. I don't think a company can function without demonstrating any kind of creditworthiness, even ST creditworthiness, for any period of time. I think they would just get shut down.
But... maybe I just don't know. In my view the entity as it was is "under" as we speak. Future developments will be interesting.
Have another one..
Your insistence that a business can not pay their bills, let the ST debt pile up, and stay in business is interesting to say the least. And now, there is no hope of paying those bills because there is no possibility to catch up by getting a magical licensing deal now is there?
I do think uWink will stay around indefinitely, but not in their present form, as depicted in those financial statements. uWink Interactive needs uWink Restaurants to test/ showcase their software. In fact, it makes sense to split up the businesses.. the Matching Principle.
that is an accounting thing Raw. You can always look it up. Don't feel embarrassed if you do not know.
I predicted that there will be executive departures. That will immediately remove cost from the books. That, plus cost reductions will enable them to stick around. They could always eliminate WH as well.
All I can say is they are 2/3 of the way into their next quarter, and yes I am damned curious what they are doing for "cash" right about now. Their financial statements are getting more and more interesting with every release. I would think that this is not the last announcement we will get from uWink about restructuring, refinancing, change.. wait and see.
IMHO that statement was always and still is... False. In fact their financial statements are misleading. The reason why they are doing this is that they are out of "cash". I would expect that over the next few months you will see executives transfer to the new entity (uWink Interactive) or quit. They must do that to reduce the payroll to sustainable level.
Of course, one has to agree as to what "cash" means. To a reasonable person, cash is really Working Capital. Cash usually means anything with a maturity of less than 1 year. I would think it means ST Assets minus ST liabilities then, which I think is Working Capital. Anything else is meaningless. I don't think they can meet payroll over this next quarter anyway.
I would think that their financial statements are misleading in that they do no represent uWink as a Going Concern. I actually looked this up in my MBA Accounting text.
Principles of GAAP:
Materiality
Revenue Recognition.. etc.
One of them is Going Concern. Representing the entity as a Going Concern indefinitely. Showing them as having no Working Capital to sustain themselves going forward is in my view, a misrepresentation of financial condition and risk to investors. I would criticize the statements on those grounds, although i am not an accountant. I just think they are misleading. The cost cutbacks they talk about are really inconsequential. The only cost cutbacks that have any effect are headcount reductions. They do mention losing the contractors, but that is it. They could have got those cost reduction ideas from the receptionist (except they cannot afford one).
In my observations of released financial statements from companies like this, statements like this are all rosy until things get critical, when suddenly the tone changes. Usually immediately before or just after the release of nonsensical financial statements like this, reality is released in the form of a Trading halt, news like this, or news of cost cutbacks and restructuring..
But, this is IMHO. I am not an accountant, just an educated observer with an accounting courses and text. Just my view.
So I am all posted out for this weekend. It has been an interesting ride for me. I am most curious what happens in the markets for uWink tomorrow.. i think it will slide down to a residual value of a few cents..
I took my money from uWink (I was lucky) and doubled it between 2006 and 2009 using the approach describe loosely here (conventional analysis and value/growth stock picking techniques):
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=33945120
I think this kind of thing works in an upward market well. You have to know enough to get out and sell high, then wait. I was watching a stock show on TV up here in Canada and there was a guy on who called himself a "contrarian investor". This kind of investor buys beaten stocks really low. Does not buy and hold. Is extremely picky about what stocks he buys (only buying 2% of what he looks at). Does not diversify for the sake of diversification, which I think is rampant. I realized in watching it, that he was closest to my philosophy on things. Did really well from 2002-2004.
In this market... you may as well wait it out, but watch for opportunities. Frankly, not many stocks fit my criteria and I think it will be volatile like this for another year.
I think we have another opportunity to repeat this success over the next several years as the market recovers. Best thing to do is to exchange picks and help each other.
btw, I think that as a public company that would be illegal. It is called Disclosure. now the new company, I believe they can do whatever they want once it is delisted.
I am beginning to wonder about you. You are thinking way too hard. Things are usually just what they appear to be. Example: some nefarious institutional investor is dumping uWink, hence blame them. No not true. Every institutional investor is dumping uWink because it sucks and being professionals, they have their own investors to worry about.
Another: The fact that the financials will be horrible is built into the price. Not true... investors expect people to get their act together and make money. Every recent financials release has resulted in a dump of the stock.
Likewise, there is no other agenda here. they are just going to step two and getting financing for the next round, leaving current investors behind.
btw, you are giving me a run for my money. I am the idiot here. I make all of the really stupid comments on this Board. You are beginning to take away from my reputation, one which I have worked hard to build. Be careful!
I saw him once. I remember he said something very intelligent. He said: If you are considering a buying decision, take a month and think about it first.
underneath the clown act, he is a smart guy.
The word "dishonest" is quite gray in reality. Fact is, this company has not made the attempt to make good on the promise to shareholders, whether or not they could prove that in court.
Any company has to act in a way that is going to make money. In the best interests of shareholders, in other words. Sounds obvious, but really when you think about it uWInk did not do that. There is no Board of Directors of other mechanism to represent the shareholders, and it seems they have been screwed.
If they really intended to be a money-making operation in it's current form, they would have hired salespeople, not a restaurant operations guy. They would have been selling since WH opened. And they would have had cost controls. I could not believe it when they published their latest results and I saw they were still paying consultants. Having worked in the technology business, contractors are the first to go when there is financial problem. I have seen senior guys rely on contractors for their expertise when they get in trouble, which I think is unprofessional.
In looking at how they have handled things, it is as if they never intended uWink to be successful in it's current form. They got those restaurants open as if that was their only objective. And who knows how long they have been considering this new financing scheme? Obviously for quite awhile, without letting investors in on it.
They had about 9M from that offering. I remember reading that they intended to spend 40% on Operations. Well, that leaves a good 4-5M anyway for restaurants. They opened 2 at 1M each. They could have opened more, controlled their costs, and been able to survive on the revenue from those restaurants. They could have been patient and sales would have come in time. Sales takes time. But no, they spent it on salaries, consultants, and changed their strategy partway through execution. They blew it and spent it on themselves. It would seem that way to me..
It is too bad.
I lucked onto this without any analysis, comparison or thought. The original uWink was the greatest single money-making opportunity I have ever seen in the stock market in my approx 5 years of involvement in it.
Question is, can you duplicate it? The next time you think you have one of these no-brainers, is it really? I can't count the times I have thought I would strike lighting twice, only to be disappointed. Usually, caution is the order of the day.
Tell you what, Rocky (Raw Eggs?), in the future i will dumb it down a bit so you are not so embarrassed. Give you a chance... OK?
correction.. on Monday.. lol.