Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
F. Goelo, Why do you think CLHB will continue to go up? Looking over the press release it looks like they are buying a bankrupt company. Is it that great of a deal? I'm a little concerned also that as of 3-31-02 they only show 3.6 mil in cash but they are paying $46 mil in cash for safety Kleen and assuming $265 mil in environmental liabilities.
High volume yesterday on a strong gain has me looking but I do not see why. Can you provide some "color"?
Thanks, Joe
Automotive parts sector has some blimps that look ripe for shorting. Here is a list for the sector with a fundamental view.
http://www2.barchart.com/sectors.asp?sec=auto~parts.sec&level=2&title=Auto+Parts&display...
Joe
TEN- Short op. Shorted this am. Big debt and parabolic move over the last 6 months rising 200% ytd and 265% last 6 months.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=TEN,uu[l,a]dacly...
Note how the RSI and MACD diverged and did not confirm the recent high. Debt to equity ratio of over 35 (yes I said 35)and slowing sales when most the industry has been showing increased revenues. Sounds like a stock that should be up 200% in the last 5 months to me! LOL! Check out the earnings estimates. they look high to me.
Joe
MANU- Just warned. Looking at 1Q loss of $18-20 mil. I'm showing 70 mil shares or about a 25 cent plus loss. Street was looking for 2 cents. Paint this one "ugly" tomorrow.
Joe
BZH- Just reported new orders for may were up 47%. If you include the Crossman purchase new home orders were down 5%. Funny how they doesn't make the headlines. Oh, well......
TARO- Isn't cutting it and appears not ready as it trades below the 20 and 50ema. Back to the back burner.
Joe
EXPE- Excerpt from Article showing value offers.
>>Despite such synergies, market prices on Monday appeared to suggest many investors believe USA Interactive is not offering big enough premiums on its buyout offers.
USA shares lost 13% Monday, finishing at $24.90. Given the exchange ratios USA is offering, that stock price would value Expedia shares at $67.15, Hotels.com at $44.98 and Ticketmaster at $20.09. However, the three subsidiaries' shares finished Monday's session at $73.93, $49.05 and $21.95, respectively.<<
http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/020603/200206031857000648_1.html
EXPE- What I see here is that Barry Diller is wanting to buy EXPE with his own inflated stock. Recent action has been kind to this group but now the market is looking closer to what it will pay for these guys and their growth rates. I think Diller sees that EXPE and ROOM and ticketmaster are worth more under his umbrella than his investment in them individually. He can hide the limitations of these issues by co-mingeling them in his empire while increasing his USAI's growth rate. I don't see the added value nor does the street it appears. I think the deal puts a ceiling on EXPE's gains. I shorted in pre-market because it appeared the premium would be quickly eaten up by a drop in USAI price. After AOL I don't think the street looks as kindly on these buys. I covered half of my position nearer the close. All this said, I think Diller is making a good move as they are great brand namesfor the future. My problem is just current valuations and what the street will pay for it.
Joe
CC, I'll give you my thoughts. TARO looked good to me today. With as bad as the market was today TARO held up well, not selling off to the end of the day. That said, bear markets can take the good with the bad. I think we may see a point soon where the mutual funds will have fear of redemptions and will sell the good with the bad to raise cash. TARO's fundies appear to be sound and I still think the same of TARO as I did this weekend. IN my opinion it's make or break time with the chart showing positive movement with the 20ema making an attempt to cross over the 50ema. Volume was light today. I have no position currently. The only thing keeping me out is the market. Like Jenna said the other day, I don't want to trade these things just for bus fare (or something like that). I think the market could weigh on TARO some.
PPDI had a good day today. Up 4% on almost 2x volume. Worth a look in my opinion. I'll address EXPE on my next post post
Joe
PPDI-Just broke above it's 20ema. Near breakout to put in a higher high.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=ppdi,uu[l,a]daclyyay[db][pc20!c50][vc60][iLb14!La12,26,9...
Fundies look good with a 24% growth rate and projected 2002 PE of 20.
Joe
Indeed TARO looks interesting.- 20ema 27.74, 50ema 27.80, yesterday low 27.80.
20 about to cross over the 50ema with a bounce yesterday at the 50. Make or break time. Fundies decent with a 30% projected growth rate and a PE of 20.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=taro,uu[l,a]dacl...
Joe
CAO- Earnings after the bell Thursday. This blimp is up nearly 100% for the last three months and 110% for the last 12. Most of that gain came in the last 60 days and I see no news to account for it. A retail auto parts dealer that has been riding the coat-tails of AZO and a couple of upgrades. Debt to equity ratio of over 4.0 and selling at a premium to it's growth rate. Lost money last year and sales gains were flat.
Refinanced $280 million in debt at 12% interest for 4 years. Dat some high priced short term financing. I would imagine someone that would have to borrow money at that rate may have issues to contend with. It's had quite a bit of build over the last three months that it may sell on the news. Just a thought. Looks ripe to me. My speculation is that the convertible holders have run it up to short in to to lock in very nice gains.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=cao,uu[l,a]daclyyay[dc][pc20!c50][vc60][iLb14!La12,26,9]...
Joe
NVLS- mid-quarter update tonight. Can play these like an earnings release. Jeena, thoughts?
Consumer spending today at 8:30 and consumer confidence and existing home sales at 10:00. Consumer confidence projections look a little high to me with what has been going on. But, what do I know.
Joe
Re;BEAV- Indeed the the technicals looks interesting.
http://139.142.147.218/HistoricalChart_Image.dll?securityType=1&interval_min=5&cus=0&sym...
Fundamentally I don't see what will drive it higher. With this type stock I think there would be more than the usual fear that industry bad news is around the corner. Interesting though that it is at post 9/11 highs.
Joe
Beav- I don't know about this one. Looks fairly priced here. Then there was this statement,
The Wellington, Florida-based company said it expects to report sales of about $650 million for its fiscal year ending February 2003, "reflecting constrained demand due to difficult airline industry conditions in the wake of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks."
They are looking for 60cents in earnings which they confirmed but only 20 cents in the first half and 60 cents in the last half. Looking out that far with the majority of the earnings coming in late I just can't get excited about their reaffirmation. I think the airlines still have some major issues to work out.
Just my take, Joe
I watch the Naz NMS tick. Printed -900 this am. Haven't seen that in awhile. FWIW, Joe
RSTO- Very heavily shorted that is today trading near support. Earnings tomorrow. I could see a bounce with the fluff report but I'm short for the longer run. I think this one could see zero a year out. I may short more on a bounce. options available.
According to this story one of the directors is net short. Hmmm....
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/stocks/timarango/10022673.html
Joe
MIMS- Conference call must went well. Fundies look good to me. I don't see why this one will not move back up to recent highs. Appears to have mo-mo going for it now.
Joe
HD- Getting a little spanking today. One point of interest in their report is that although they report record levels of cash, current liabilities are up 41% as compared to sales up 17%. Company projecting 2-4% same store sales increases for next quarter. That may be what's weighing on this issue.
Joe
HD- LOW had a good report today. If HD shows anything less it could appear that LOW is taking market share. At HD's lofty levels as compared to LOW, HD could show some weakness. I don't see the risk/reward working as LOW has raised the bar that HD may be unable to clear. JMO.
Joe
KG- Up Friday on above average volume. Recent buyback announced and top execs ended their blind trust to sell shares because it was sending the wrong message to the street. Good fundies.
May be worth a look.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=kg,uu[l,a]daclyyay[db][pc20!c50][vc60][iLb14!La12,26,9]&...
Joe
LEH- Shorted this am @64.95. 65 looks like fair resistance and look to make the trade off the over-excitement with MER news.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=LEH,uu[l,a]daclyyay[db][pc20!c50!f][vc60][iLb14!La12,26,...
Looks like we now have a gap to be filled and got a nice industry level downgrade today from Warburg.
Joe
QQQ- Ka-POW!!! I'm showing 20 block trades today representing 14.8 mil shares. Unlike most times that I see these go through, these trades did not look well timed and I wouldn't be surprised that a chunk of money was lost as in , "where's the bounce?"
Just an observation.
Joe
ILA- Bob, Im more a F/A guy than a T/A guy but I would have to say your chart is broken and we are now in to un"chart"ered territory.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=ILA,uu[l,a]daclyyay[dd][pc20!c50][vc60][iLb14!La12,26,9]...
Today's action was brutal. Also,It's not like the chart wasn't trying to tell you something like this would happen. The stock has been trending lower for awhile now. That said, the ILA has some interesting fundamental aspects to it. Wonder how secure that 7% div is? The Moody's action seems to me to be overdone but in this market action like this tends to linger. IMO the chart doesn't do much good here.
Joe
GNSS- Looking at my Betty Crocker Cook Book I see that GNSS has all the ingredients to make "Short" bread from the shorts. Very good positive report with good look ahead coupled with large short interest. If we can get the market to cooperate could move turn into a nice swing trade.
Joe
GNSS- Good report. Bought some more afterhours before press release cheap and just sold some for 3+ points. Holding the balance to run. Nice call Jenna.
Joe
MYG- Just came across this write-up.
http://money.cnn.com/2002/04/26/pf/investing/q_stockstoavoid/index.htm
>>>One stock the shorts are glomming onto is Maytag (MYG: Research, Estimates). Shares of the home-appliance company have surged nearly 50 percent since the beginning of the year, and short interest has more than tripled in the past few months. As of April 15, 4.6 million of the company's 54 million available shares, were being held short, compared to short interest of just 1.5 million shares in mid-December.
To be sure, Maytag's fundamentals seem strong, and the company recently raised earnings guidance for 2002. But David MacGregor, an analyst with Midwest Research, says he thinks more short sellers are questioning the rise in Maytag's stock due to concerns about the company's balance sheet.
Maytag is loaded down with debt. As of March 31, Maytag had about $1.2 billion in current liabilities (including accounts payable and short-term debt) as well as $774 million in long-term debt, but only $91.4 million in shareholder's equity. In the first quarter, Maytag had $17.4 million in interest expense related to its debt, up 14 percent from the same period a year ago. MacGregor has a "neutral" rating on Maytag and says it is "ripe for profit taking." <<<
GNSS- I like the earnings play on this one long. If the indexes cooperate we could easily see a couple points or more IMO. Just bought flat screens for my PC we use in my business (retail). hearing many comments from customers that they have done the same. One of the few techs I like and like you said, the PEG makes it a value play.
Joe
MYG- Looks like an interesting short to me for a position play. MACD did not cofirm the run to a new high and volume appears to be saying, "let me out". Nice gap lower to to be filled and the fall in the durable orders numbers should weigh on this one.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=myg,uu[l,a]daclyyay[db][pc20!c50][vc60][iLb14!La12,26,9]...
>>Maytag manufactures, distributes and services a broad line of home appliances. Maytag also manufactures bottle and can vending equipment and glass front merchandisers. Sales for the three months ended 3/31/02 increased 20% to $1.18 billion. Net income from continuing operations fell 26% to $58.1 million. Revenues reflect the acquired Amana appliance business. Net income was offset by a decreased gross profit margin due to weaker product pricing.<<
Sorry, if this has been recently mentioned. I'm new to the board.
Joe