Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Trade group cuts growth goal for chips
SAN JOSE, Calif. (CBS.MW) -- A major semiconductor trade group said late Wednesday that the semiconductor industry is entering a long-term period of slower growth.
The Semiconductor Industry Association said global chip sales should grow between 8 and 10 percent on a compound annual basis in the years to come, compared with a past growth rate of about 16 percent.
"We can no longer count on the proverbial rising tide that lifts all boats," said Jerry Sanders, SIA board member and chairman of chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices (AMD: news, chart, profile), speaking at the SIA's annual market forecast on
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BB326C09A%2D0B28%2D4BDB%2D8910%2D0CC1F09B48FB%7D&am...
CELL- up 52%. eom
>>When was the last time we had 50bp in one cut. I can remember.
Try
http://minneapolisfed.org/research/data/us/disc.cfm
Joe
>>Out of the utility sector, which one is your favorite for upside potential?<<
RRI is my fav. Good thing I have these because I'm getting killed on my tech shorts as we speak.
Joe
MIR- up 16%. Another power producer that is doing well with a nice rebound off of a dollar about 2 weeks ago. MIR also has a preferred trust paying near 19%.(MIR_pa)Has more than doubled from recent lows. MIR should be posting their much delayed 10Q's sonn removing some uncertainties and bringing some attention here.
Joe
Just after 1 pm est looks like we saw a sharp increase in the 5, 10 and 30 year treasuries. With money going into bonds I'll be leaning short. With the low volume until 2:15 we cpould see the indexes run a little as the MM's regroup for a possible swing south.
Joe
CPN- Long. Up 19% today. Story explains part of the move.
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B478A310D%2D7FD5%2D4012%2D9FC0%2D78A0AAD0634C%7D&am...
Worth a look for a longer time horizon play.
BTW, I got a paper port I started on yahoo that has public access. Utility stocks that I find of interest. Sign in under "zzports" and us the password "zzports". Someone from SI set this up on the Z thread. The "Joe Health I" is my port also that I tinker with when I have ideas and time.
Joe
>>>Mortgage Bankers Association.
The MBA applications index jumped 13 percent in the latest week after cooling off in the previous week. The purchase index rose 9 percent to the highest level since early September, while the refinancing index rose 15 percent after two weeks of declines.<<
Reversal from last week. Where do all these borrowers keep coming from? Geesh! Won't the builders ever die!
Joe
FROM OI:>>>Jim, Saw a brief note in IBD that Reuters reported the unemployment rate would have come in at 6% vs the 5.7% without a "mysterious jump in farm-based jobs". "Since June some 415,000 jobs have been created in agriculture." "A USDA official said there's no industry change to account for the pickup."
Pretty amazing to get a decent jobs number from a unexplainable source just before a tight election.....Ron
Come on Ron, that would imply a conspiracy! (grin) Just because the numbers for most government economic reports have been revised significantly recently does not mean that someone is trying to influence the markets. It just means they ran out of fingers and toes and their etch-a-sketch tablets may be wearing out. Surely there is no conspiracy in the government just because there have been dozens of "earnings" scams reported in the corporate world lately. We all understand the government is all knowing and infallible. Just ask them. Restatements are for our benefit. If they had posted the right numbers in the first place we might not have been able to take it. You know what wimps we consumers are. As for the +415,000 jump in unexplained agriculture jobs…that is probably just new coverage of Al Queda infiltrators that were previously left off the prior surveys. No problem. <<<
AXL- Go figure. Makes axles with 80 some % going to GM. Slightly reduced earnings today for next year. Now, with news out that inventories need to be trimmed they are up 3%. No current position but looks like a possible position trade short to me.
Joe
High auto inventories erase production upside: Merrill (GM, F, DCX) By Tomi Kilgore
Analyst John Casesa at Merrill Lynch said auto industry inventories appear to be running 32 percent above historical averages, which eliminates the possibility of increased production schedules in the fourth quarter and suggests caution for the first quarter. He said early reports carmakers indicate that inventories are standing at 79 days' supply (DS), versus the five-year historical October average of 60 DS. Shares of General Motors (GM) are edging up 35 cents to $35.25, Ford (F) are gaining 12 cents to $9.02 and DaimlerChrysler (DCX) are losing $1.18 to $35.20.<<<
Thought those inventories looked high last week.
Joe
Boo Boo- Thanks. However, someday I'll probably diss a stock that you are very fond of and you'll hate me for it. LOL!
Just remember that all my post are with the sincerest wishes that we all make better trades and some money along the way.
Zeev has a great board here and i hope I can be an asset by providing worth while content.
Best, Joe
RRI- Spun off from CNP (REI) on Sept 30. 240 million shares were added to the float. A fair amount of those new holders are investors for income so they will and have been selling off those shares. RRI probably has some of the best fundies of the group but in my opinion has been underperforming because of the huge overhead. Looking at volume trends I believe we are getting near the end of the weak hands. IMO my bet is we see strong accumilation once we get the sellers out of the way. Now selling way below book.
Just an idea.
Joe
CELL- up 43%. Earnings appear to look like their restructuring is working well.
Joe
[CELL]Interesting potential for a longer term hold. >> BRIGHTPOINT UPPED TO 'BUY' AT DEUTSCHE BANK<< Company does about $1.4 bil in revenues. Earnings out last night. 10% sequential increase in revenues. Share price was driven down a floorless convertible but that has been mostly resolved now. A small 1% net profit could bring $1.75 to the bottom line as that after a reverse split there are only 8 million shares outstanding. Of course there are some issues to deal with to get to just that 1% but they seem to making great strides in getting there. Debt has been worked down as the debt to equity ration is now near .35.
Book value is $13.35 a share and the stock currently sells for $2.50. Currently has $3.47 a share in cash. Sure they are in the cell phone business but cell phones are a mainstay in our lives and look to remain so for a number of years. As the market matures, a distribution network will be more in demand to control inventories. CELL is one of the largest distributors.
A break out would be just above $2.80 or so.
Just an idea. I have a long position for longer term speculation.
Joe
ISM services out at 10:00 eom
From OI:>>Morning notes out of Lehman Brothers that investors are
overlooking weak fundamentals at semiconductor equipment
companies in favor of the prospect of stabilization in end
markets and the fear of missing the upturn in equipment shares is
weighing lower on the group, as well as stock futures in early
morning trading.
Lehman believes that overall, semiconductor equipment shares
trade well above historical trough levels, and the company's with
the greatest discrepancy between price/book and tangible book
include AEIS $13.75, BRKS $14.60, KLIC $3.86, MKSI $15.39 and
PLAB $13.44, and that KLIC and PLAB are the most likely
candidates for asset impairment charges.<<<
*DJ OM Group Suspends Dividend >OMG
DJ OM Group Hires Credit Suisse First Boston Fincl Advisor
>>Anytime we get above Monday's close, IMO. It's a good place for stops if you're short.<<
With the elections and rate thoughts for tomorrow we could be in for a fair amount of volatility. IMO setting stops so tight on a day like today almost quarantees being whipsawed out of short positions. Today, short holders need to trade with a little more conviction in their position if they are trading this market. On the nas, a move above 1400 would have me looking to cover and move above 1404-1405 would have me pulling the trigger for very short term plays.
What is your opinion on stops for long positions?
Joe
Think the dow needs about a hundred points to have another up week. The republicans need another up week. I think we close with an up week.
Joe
Ford has inventory of 828,000 cars and trucks. They just sold 288,000 last month. I have nothing to compare that to but it sounds like a lot of inventory to me. Does anyone know how many months of inventory is normal?
TIA, Joe
*DJ Ford Motor Oct U.S. Sales Fell 31% >F
THC- just broke through 24. eom
*DJ Tenet Healthcare (THC) Halt: Imbalance. Last 26.50
OMG- I agree. Appears to be basing. I bought a small position for a swing trade at 6.50.
Joe
I don't know. I was hoping you knew. Big enough to make DJ's headlines. LOL!
Joe
THC- Down 8% eom
>>>In Wednesday's market monitor at OptionInvestor.com we mentioned
that there was some trader talk that Teva Pharmaceutical
(NASDAQ:TEVA) $77.43 might be added to the NASDAQ-100. This
proves true as the Israeli generic drug maker will join the
NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX.X) effective at the beginning of trading
November 7, replacing Concord EFS (NASDAQ:CEFT) $14.28, which is
moving its listing to the NYSE. Salomon Smith Barney expects
indexers to sell a total of 21.5 million CEFT shares and purchase
3.4 million TEVA shares.
*DJ Ronald Baron Sold Short 10,118 OM Group Shares Thursday
DJ Ronald Baron Sold 24,897 OM Group Shares Tuesday
CTAS- One I think could work nicely for a short on a swing trade.
Might want to watch PCAR too.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=ctas,uu[l,a]daclyyay[db][pc20!c50][vc60][iLb14!La12,26,9...
Joe
BTW, CI is selling today at just below book value where as THC is selling much higher.
FWIW, Joe
THC- Normally I would think that the selling is overdone but THC is still selling at 3X book and and the street has been selling these mishaps down to book many times. I think there is so little buying that when these issues get hit it's not so much that threre are so many sellers but more for a lack of buyers. The mutual funds with redemption week after redemption week got to be close to being net sellers as cash levels are historically low. I bought some THC last night but sold it after about 10 minutes as the gap downs on these guys can really screw ya.
Fundamentally I think THC is a great comapny. I just think they are still overvalued in realtionship to there growth rate.
Joe
FWIW, I set up two ports on yahoo that are available for public view. http://finance.yahoo.com/?u
These are industry paper ports traded in real time (when I have the time) and are more for position plays for longer term. The First one is "Joe Health 1" for health industry stocks and the second is "utilities". The health issue port was started July 1st and is up 15.7%. The utility port is up 28.9% and was started just about 3 weeks ago on October 9th. $100,000 was the starting amount on each. No position can have starting position of more than $5,000. All companies must have earnings. Thinking about starting a home builders port which will be traded more on the short side.
The health sector port I'm looking more for earnings growth. The utility port is more for value and income. To enter the port sign in under "zzports" and the password is "zzports".
BTW, booted ADRX out of the health port yesterday when it announced losses. arrgggg!
FWIW, Joe
This is from Option Investor. com. Very good subscription newsletter. 2 week free trial. Worth the money in my book. The commentary is just a small part of what they provide every night along with several picks. It's just not for options.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>http://www.optioninvestor.com/index.asp
What a day to be a fund manager. The economic reports are the
worst in months and you have to buy stocks to appear fully
invested and ready for the new bull market. It is like getting
caught doing something wrong in front of your friends in high
school and being told to report to the principal's office before
going to class tomorrow. You have to keep up pretenses for the rest
of the day to avoid losing face with your crowd but knowing that
you are going to get serious licks by the principal the next
morning. I am obviously dating myself and speaking from personal
experience. They probably don't give "licks" any more in high
school but I racked up 17 consecutive days once in the mid 60's.
Back to the point. Funds that were forced to go long today to
save face are likely to get whacked at the open tomorrow. The
terrible economic news is eventually going to strike home and
Friday could be the start of that process.
The day began with a GDP for Q3 that at 3.1% was far below
consensus of 3.7%. Inventories rose only $1.9 billion which
indicates that businesses are not expecting any recovery anytime
soon. This was down from $4.9 billion in Q2. This paints a
lower profit picture for Q4 since lack of inventory prevents
sales growth. What GDP growth there was came from auto sales
which were 22.7% of the growth. Economists have been saying
that the quarter began with a bang and ended with a sigh. The
majority of the gains came in July when growth spurted to +4%
for several weeks on the back of summer auto sales but slowed
to the current estimates of only 1.7% by quarter end.
This paints a very negative picture of the current economy.
Auto sales have dried up. Mortgage applications fell -20% last
week and it was the third weekly drop in a row. The housing
bubble is bursting and the refinancing wave is over. Estimates
of GDP for the 4Q are less than 2.0%. Several analysts
pointed to a 6% jump in business equipment and software as
evidence of a recovery but they forgot about the one time sale
that Microsoft held when it changed its licensing method.
Remember the record bounce in MSFT earnings reported this month
from that one time event. Ditto for the internal GDP numbers.
Take that away and the overall number would even be worse.
The Chicago PMI also fell significantly below estimates of 49.5
to 45.9 and indicating a signification contraction in the Midwest
economy. This is the lowest level since January and as the second
month in negative territory signals the end of a seven month
recovery. The PMI also showed continued weakness in payrolls.
The combined GDP, PMI and higher than expected Jobless Claims
numbers today paint a dreary picture for Friday's critical reports.
The PMI is a leading indicator for the more important ISM numbers
and the ISM was already showing negative growth last month at
49.5. The nonfarm payrolls, estimated at -15,000 for tomorrow,
could also be at risk despite a slight rise in help wanted ads.
We will also see the Personal Income and Spending and Construction
Spending on Friday. October vehicle sales could be the last nail
in the coffin. It will be a very full morning.
The Dow finished the month about 30 points from posting the best
October on record, ever. Coming in second best was no small feat
with a +10.6% gain. This was the best monthly gain for the Dow
since Jan-1987. Unfortunately, every time the Dow has posted a
double digit gain since 1926 the following month showed a high
single digit drop. Every time! That does not mean November is
a guaranteed drop but I would not bet against it based on the
fundamentals. The outlook for the 4Q is so bad that even food
stores are issuing warnings. Albertsons said it expected profits
to drop based on a steeper than expected drop in sales. It also
cut expectations for the entire year. Wal-Mart was blamed in
part for stealing business from food chains but even Wal-Mart
has warned that sales are falling.
The wild card here is the Fed meeting on Wednesday. If there was
no impending Fed meeting the market numbers would already be more
scary than anything that will come knocking on your door tonight.
There are so many conflicting guesses about the Fed's move that
the outcome is far from clear. The market has priced in more than
a 25 point cut but almost zero chance of a 50 point cut. There
are many analysts that think the Fed will not cut at all and
will stick with the "current stimulus is adequate" mantra and
not risk scaring investors with an "oh my gosh, it is really bad"
type of reaction. Since there has been no Fedspeak leaning toward
a rate cut there is a feeling they will hold pat and put pressure
on the ECB to cut rates first. The Fed does not want to weaken
the dollar any more unless the ECB follows suit. Not cutting
next week would put the pressure on them.
Many feel they will cut 25 points to show they feel our pain
even though it would have zero impact on the economy for at least
six months. At 1.75% we already have the lowest funds rate in
decades and according to all published Fed comments they feel
it is sufficient to fuel the recovery.
This is the way it is shaping up for me. A .25% cut is priced into
the market already. A .25% cut would leave the markets depressed
and we could see a negative reaction. A .50% cut would bring out
concerns of deeper problems than we can see and while there might
be an immediate bounce in the markets it should not last more than
a couple days before current fundamentals take hold again. With
no rate cut we could get the instant drop as the current expectations
are taken out of the market but then a rebound as the Fed will go
on the campaign trail to promote the "current stimulus is adequate"
story.
Whatever will happen is of course still four trading days away.
This means the verbal battle will continue in the press with
everyone getting their 15 min of face time on TV. They will
rationalize the drop in consumer spending and try to spin the
kinder gentler slow growth economy as "recovering" instead of
dipping. The confusion is going to keep investors on the sidelines
and without positive Fedspeak there will be plenty who will close
positions and move to the sidelines to avoid the possible unknowns.
Add into this the gains in the last two weeks as mutual finds
stacked their portfolio decks and you have a very good chance of
that house of cards collapsing.
Friday could be explosive or implosive. If the economic reports
come in better than expected then the initial reaction will be to
celebrate but they will then start discounting the chances of a
rate cut. Mass confusion. If the reports are worse than expected
the hopes for a rate cut will rise but the economic fundamentals
will have worsened. We have not seen any strong impact from the
last 12 cuts and one more is not likely to do any better. What
we are going to have is four more days of trading confusion with
a probable downward trend. Remember, a 25 point cut is already
priced in and everything else is just smoke. You have to ask
yourself why anyone would risk the precious capital they have
left by going long in front of the Fed meeting. Also, remember
the Fed needs to save its ammo for a response to a future
terrorist attack and in case the war in Iraq goes badly. They
do not want to be in the same shape as Japan with a zero interest
rate, no more bullets and the economy still falling.
Now that I have totally confused you I think that you should also
remember that the election is on Tuesday. Incumbents typically
do badly when the markets are crashing on election day. That
sets up another possibility of artificial manipulation that only
conspiracy theorists will admit to. Can we please just fast
forward to next Thursday and end the pain of uncertainty? No
such luck I am afraid.
Enter Very Passively, Exit Very Aggressively!
Jim Brown
Editor
Longest October on record! ....or did it just seem that way? LOL!
DJ Tenet Healthcare (THC) Ind: 27.0-29.0 Last 33.0
May well be good trading on this one tomorrow.
Joe
DJ S&P Cuts OM Group; On Watch Negative >OMG
Looks like the PPT is giving some of us bears a little treat to keep us interested. gggg
Joe
AXL- Car sales out tomorrow. AXL might be worth a look for a short as I hear that sales have slowed. JCI is another. Joe
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=axl,uu[l,a]daclyyay[db][pc20!c50][vc60][iLb14!La12,26,9]...
MIR- Nice rise on volume . Up 16%. eom