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Good point, Geo. If Bavi and Cotara don't carry us through to share prices above $5, there is no possible new science in the pipeline that will rescue us. I do hate to set my expectations at $5 a share, but I have averaged down enough to net a decent return at that level.
Paul
Geo, it is clear that Peregrine will soon reach a tipping point. It will score with Bavi anti-HepC, or Bavi anti-cancer, or Cotara partnering, or a combination of the three. If none of the above, Peregrine will not survive for long IMHO. If all of the above hit, even this BOD and management couldn't possibly screw up the bidding process that would result.
It has been a long painful process, but it will soon be resolved, one way or the other. Egads!
Paul
I hope we will be smiling when we do finally reach the finish line. I expect we will know in 6-12 months whether it will be a triumphal finish or just a very sad story I will never tell my wife.
Paul
Would anyone care to craft a proposal freezing the issuance of any bonuses to senior management until the share price exceeds $3 for ten consecutive business days?
Paul
It's hard to argue with much of what you said. However, your statement that:
PPHM is a mixed bag under the best case scenario
Thank you geo. Those who have a beef with management should take it up with management. It is boring to read their endlessly repeated points in this space.
Paul
This is all very interesting if the clinical trials produce good results. It's encouraging to think that all of the knowledgable posters here are so sure they will. If they don't, this whole discussion is pointless.
Paul
You may be right, or you may be wrong. If you are right, then all Bavi will have to treat is all solid tumors . Probably only worth about $10 billion dollars a year in sales - you know a more effective, much less toxic Avastin.
Paul
We may not end up today. However, the potential for significant news is growing every day. You all know the current trials in NSCLC and HepC are huge. If Bavi bests interferon in the HepC trial, we will make money one way or another. If Bavi blows the previously treated NSCLC group SOC out of the water, we will make money one way or the other. If neither happens, it could be a long time before Peregine stops dragging down our portfolios. Anyone disagree with the above?
Paul
I believe Bavi alone was tried in HepC. Not bad results for an immuno-stimulant, I believe in line with interferon alone type results.
Paul
Does this mean that in two quarters Peregrine will disappear and we will no longer enjoy your contributions to this board?
This is a rhetorical question. IMHO, Peregrine will be alive and kicking well past six months, and I'm sure we can count on you to be here repeating the familiar litany of frustrations. However, if the news flow is positive over the next six months, we all may be less frustrated by the share price.
Paul
Thanks cjg for the compelling collection. However, this contribution in no way helps me resist the impulse to add to my PPHM share count.
Paul
Let's review the situation:
1. Phase II trials fully enrolling.
2. Bavi ISTs in process. Imagine that - outside investigators doing human trials with a Peregrine product.
3. Cotara poised for the long overdue Phase III trials-FDA willing.
4. Avid revenue moving back up - modestly but up.
5. Expensive financing secured to operate another year.
6. Expensive, but experienced, managers brought on board for last steps toward commercialization.
7. Negative sentiment on this board at all time lows.
8. Institutional ownership at all time highs - I think.
9. Share price close or at all time lows.
Stop me before I buy again. Come on "realists", explain to me how poorly run Peregrine is and how we should sue to have the BOD and management tarred and feathered. Please!
Paul
The march toward commercial development continues. Cotara is heading into Phase III meetings with the FDA in the next 3-4 months. Bavi will generate Phase II results on both NSCLC trials in the next 4 to 9 months. The HepC trial will have prelim results in 3-4 months. All the above from King's talk today.
We are finally approaching the point where Peregrine's ultimate success might be convincingly supported by human testing. I know it's taken forever, but we are approaching the mountain top. It will either overlook the promised land or provide a nice jumping off point into oblivion. Thank God my wife doesn't know how much I've sunk into this one.
Paul
I believe King said we can expect data from the fully enrolled NSCLC trial and the soon to be fully enrolled HCV trial by the end of the year. We really need some strong data.
Paul
Enrollment complete. Data before the end of the year. That's the kind of news I like to hear.
Paul
I'm sorry if I'm not a real enough shareholder for you. I do however legally own 18000 of these rapidly devaluing little darlings. I simply hope that results from the clinical trials will turn this thing around, and turn it around in a big way.
I was not happy when I saw this latest sale, but I do not believe it was done for nefarious reasons. I have no reason to believe that. I do not believe the management and BOD are comprised of evil people who wish me and the rest of the shareholders ill. I believe they think they are doing the right things to move Peregine ahead. I believe they are experienced, intelligent people, not a bunch of self serving idiots. Of course, like you I may be wrong.
Paul
It should seem obvious that the latest leg of the downward move was directly in response to the sale of millions of shares at $1.11. If you know better, please enlighten the rest of us.
Complaining on this site about the BOD has done nothing in the last X years that you have done it to influence events in any way that I've noticed. Continuing to do so is of course your privilege. I merely point out what are in my humble opinion two much more efficasious paths.
I hope you are enjoying your frustration.
Paul
As usual, the share price goes down. Fortunately this move is unrelated to the success or failure of the clinical trials. Noone seems to follow this stock based on whether Peregrine will produce commercially viable products.
I know, I know the dilution is enough to make you crazy. However, the dilution in one form or another was inevitable. The solutions to dilution for the individual share holder are a.) to suck it up and buy more, or b.) sell out and move on. Moaning and groaning here is pointless. Man up, make your choice.
All of course IMHO.
Paul
Two things we know for sure:
1. Peregrine always needs money.
2. This seems like a strange way to get it. More dilutive than the seemingly successful ATM program?
There is more here than meets the eye. Posters tend to fill the gap with creativiy that satisfies their points of view. I have to think the explanation might be even stranger than our fictions.
Paul
It is estimated that worldwide sales of interferon products for the treatment of hepatitis C will approach $6 billion by 2016.
Maybe there is something financially significant to the company that can replace interferon in HEPC standard of care.
Paul
I'm sure the long pusishment period will soon end. I'm not saying how it will end; just that relatively soon Peregrine will make us longs a nice pile of money or put us out of our misery.
Keep smiling. I know it's not easy.
Paul
Are there any realistic commercial opportunities for anti-PS products for imaging? I enjoy a good study as much as the next guy, but it's about time for Peregrine to find a way to make some additional non-dilutive money. I'm just saying.
Paul
I'm scared to death. If any Bavi clinical trial reports poor results, this thing will drop like a rock. It drops pretty good without any news at all.
However, all previous Bavi testing in the labs and in the clinics has been at least hopeful. If Peregrine can verify or better the very promising earlier clinical results in NSCLC, I can see a ten fold increase in stock price. With the number of shares I have acquired this would be a nice bump in my networth.
So, forgive me if I find the peripheral issue discussions irksome. I have way too much at stake to care about anything but those NSCLC trials. The BOD could be staffed by The Three Stooges and the PR effort managed by Donald Duck, and this will still be a billion dollar buyout if the NSCLC trials come in with strong results. All of course IMO.
Paul
Of course we are waiting until next year. The major clinical trials will not have reached reportable states until next year. If you want gratification sooner, try Baskin and Robbins.
Paul
If we have blowout lung cancer trials, by this time next year, there may be no shares outstanding - Peregrine may be inside the bowels of some big pharma.
There is an optimistic case for the company. Otherwise, why are we here?
Paul
There is a difference between frustration and hostility. I am frustrated with the rate of progress Peregrine is making, not due to any incompetence or god-forbid malfeasance of management, but due to the difficulties inherent in bringing revolutionary products to market under financially brutal times. Especially, when the company making the attempt is a David in a field loaded with Goliaths.
Your contention that management has not been working on expanding Avid's capacity is ludicrous. It has been discussed and acted upon my management for years. They have obtained access to additonal square footage and have been early adaptors of that new bioreactor technology to multiply their capacity.
Your contention that:
With a proper PR firm, IR firm, IB and BOD we probably would be at $3 or greater
Chevy, I ran out of ignores long before you came along.
I certainly would not dream of asserting that my entries are anything other than opinions. However, if I see a post that in my opinion gives a skewed impression of my take on PPHM's realistic prospects, I enjoy posting my dissenting opinions probably as much as the next guy.
Best to all true longs.
Paul
What is relevant is not always important in the overall picture. It is a matter of proportionate weighting. Something may be relevant but have limited impact.
Many posts herein don't seem to recognize this. And by doing so present a distorted picture of PPHM's prospects that some might find disingenuous.
Paul
Share price has turned around and started up again. I'm sure this is a bad thing.
Paul
How long until the next Bavi HepC trial can produce data? I've always thought of Bavi as an anti-cancer med. And, so far it has proved effective and well tolerated in multiple cancer trials. However, if the Bavi HepC trial beats the SOC, you have to think Bavi will generate billion dollar interest in a very short time frame IMHO.
Paul
If the lung cancer trials do have some data for us in December or January, the yearend tax sellers may miss out on a huge move. Fortunately, most of us PPHM addicts never sell; so, we'll be OK.
Paul
When the lung cancer trials start throwing off data, then we will really see some action. I guess that will be around the end of the year, maybe early next year.
Paul
I guess if you average down enough, you can make money on PPHM.
Paul
Averaging down is fine if the stock price eventually turns upward. If you have no optimististic expectations for the stock, obviously you should sell and be on your way. If you have a rational basis for expecting it to go up at some future time (e.g. the successful conclusion of pivotal Phase II clincical trials) and can afford the gamble, why not add at better prices?
Admittedly the share price has gone nowhere but down for a very long time. Averaging down on PPHM is a very risky approach. However, PPHM has always been a very risky speculation.
Paul
Of course I may be wrong, but I believe the whole idea of testing Bavi against HPC was in hopes of replacing interferon in the SOC.
Paul
As there is no big news today, is this move up a simple reflection of the perception that PPHM is ridiculously undervalued? By the way, this question is not meant as an invitation to repeat the criticism of management's past performance.
Paul
Thanks. More welcome good news. I know there has been interest in trying Bavi on prostate cancer for years. I believe the military sponsored some lab work on this at one time.
Paul
Liberal quantities of premium pilsners and ales help me handle the PPHM blues. I just hope they will some day help me celebrate the utlimate triumph of our little darling.
Paul
Well said, KT. Peregrine management clearly has a goals driven business plan leading toward commercialization. If they get there, we'll be with them to cash in.
Paul