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I believe it was Walrus who said GE disallowed TKO to give guidance. That is certainly a possibility GE is a monster company with a very slow methodical way of doing things. They likely want to cross each T and dot each I twice.
Now the stock action today, given the lack of guidance was very predictable. The stock had run 50% over the past 6 weeks or so. People took some profits. Also the recent run up in the last 2 days likely brought in a lot of short term money, and that exits when the short trend falters. There is likely still some short term money trapped in the 3.70 area and they will sell into strength to exit their positions.
Unfortunately yesterday after the pop to 4.00 the stock was overbought and a very good looking candidate for short sellers. The first downward target would be around 3.40 and we're there. If weakness continues it is likely going down to 3.20 or even 3.00.
If as Walrus said guidance is forthcoming, then this downturn will be a short term event, and the stock will find a support base at one of these levels and then continue upwards.
Looks like there was a couple large chunks of stock sold off in that run down. We shook out some weak longs from the previous 2 trading days and popped back over 3.50 on good buying volume. I'm happy to see it back over 3.50
Sirius, I can not speak to what Scottrade told you, but it sounds a little fishy. I use Ameritrade, and get level II for free based on my trading volume. Nothing special, just basic level II. Have you tried pulling level II up on your scottrade for a major stock, say maybe CSCO, and see if you get a feed for that.
The gap is closed, but without further news, which we don't expect, short term sell pressure should continue. The stock is leaning towards overbought, and technical traders are not going to like the chart patterns set up yesterday and today. We will need to get up into the 3.80+ area to get buying interest back again from a technical standpoint.
Yeah i saw AMEX had huge sell pressure on there to get it under 3.50 then the pressure lifted. We could be sideways to down for a couple days awaiting guidance.
I'm showing a new presence/specialist on level II for TKO. The name is CINN. Has shown all morning with a bid ask listing of .01 and 2000.00 Obviously not actively engaged in trading at this time. Does anyone else see this? Is this possibly a new specialist that may have been added to this stock in anticipation of a permanent spike in trading volume in the near future, or is this just a blip?
Sirius.
Yes, I'm sure any large fund/institution worth it's salt had some idea this was coming. Still deals can fold at the last minute, much safer to wait till the ink is on the paper.
The other major thing the big boys need is to see guidance. When they take a position they like to know what the current valuation is. so they can run the multiples and decide where the risk reward ratios lie, and what potential gain they are anticipating when they enter a position.
I think they'll wait for the rest of the hot money to shake out and some earnings guidance before they come in, but there should be some nice momentum generated once they do come on board.
DSD.
Good point, I had actually taken my eyes off the 200 day MA for a couple days. Looks like a couple more days to get the moving average crossover. Also the 200 day MA is still declining but not by much. We could get the 200 day MA rising before the 50 day MA crosses it which just looks all the better technically.
Yes, I did some of that accumulation thing myself. I thought the stock was going to confirm the 3.50-3.60 level then rally back towards 4.00 this afternoon. There was definitely good bid action all day, but there was a strong selling presence in the 3.64-3.66 level all day as well.
Cheers
LOL. No offense taken. I understand your long sentiment, I just watch technicals as a matter of how I trade and thought I'd mention it.
The last 10 minutes or so of trading looked like some people loading up late. Nice to see buyers at the end of the day. Nothing huge, but big enough to to notice.
Just a word of caution. I know we are all happy with the PR and the stock reaction today, but that is one ugly candle setting up today. It is a shooting star, and very, very often leads to selling pressure the next day. It is one of the stronger simgle day indicators. You can see about 3 weeks ago we had one as well that preceded two or three down days.
The criteria is an open above the previous days close, a large rally, and an inability to sustain the rally with a close near the open and a long tail.
Thanx for all the great info you provide GLL.
There is very heavy sell pressure on level II at the moment. They will keep it capped for the time being it looks like.
With the signed partnership with a major company this should begin to draw in larger investors and maybe some institutional interest. Neither of these investors are prone to jump in on a morning runup on an announcement. You'll see that money come in over the next week I would think. First morning action is largely momo traders and day traders.
Also the big brokerage houses will take time to do some research on this now that it is on their radars before they recommend it to their clients. I think $5 is not far around the corner.
Some of it was priced in over the last several weeks, plus a lot of traders took profits on the run up today. This is only the beginning as once a revenue picture becomes clearer there should be a nice run up in the near future.
Great announcement! I added to my position on the pull back.
4000 rooms. I wouldn't think a unit for each room. There would be a connection in each room, but how many rooms are served by each device?
The HOD is nice, but volume is not extremely heavy. moderate buying interest. Looks like about 70 thousand or so shares went off on the announcement, then maybe another 40 or 50 thousand in the next 15 minutes, but it is calming down.
Nice start to the week though. Go TKO.
Some revenue guidance would have been nice to see. The stock got a little pop, but is not showing follow through as the announcement is digested. I think it might pull back without further guidance.
Sirius your passion is honest and genuine and obviously shows the frustration of a long term investor awaiting a horse that is long overdue from the gate. These are valid points and I do not think you are bashing at all.
Unfortunately your only answer if the news next week is not to our liking is to exercise our power as consumers (of stock in this case) and either not purchase more, or begin to relinquish what we already have. Hopefully in the latter case at some level of profit.
I'm still hoping for some good news and/or guidance next week. We'll see.
Brian
I think the market reacted in a logical manner. Acquisitions mean cash outlays, means negative impact on the bottom line. They offerred no guidance on expected revenue generation from these acquisitions or when/how they may contribute positively to the bottom line.
The 4 million shares at 2.50 is a mixed bag. On one hand it shows they were able to sell these investors on the fact that the stocks are likely to be worth a deal more in the future. On the other hand they show the delicate nature of their cash position by needing to raise the capital in the first place. It's not news that they are not swimming in free cash.
I dunno (shrug) Everything I can find posts the last after hours trade at 3.22. I kinda hope it's right. Every extra nickle helps. Either way it was a good strong end to the trading day. Someone was willing to pony up the extra cash for a big chunk of stock late. You'd think they'd only pay that premium if they think someting is going to happen. For 19,000 shares that's almost an extra $1000 they paid for them at $3.22 vs the $3.17 level trades were going off at during the close.
Maybe we'll all be singing a happy Friday song instead of the previous Monday one. Plenty of happy Friday songs in the world I would think.
By the way, the fact that the last regular hours trade posted at 3.22 makes todays candle pattern a bullish engulfing, and that is all good! Could see a little technical driven stock action tomorrow to the upside.
My ameritrade also shows the close of 3.22, but I watched trading end at i think 3.15. perhaps a lte trade hadn't posted yet, but if you look in the level II extended hours you can clearly see the after hours trade. I am not yet showing the trade at 3.17
Got It. I'm in electronics and we use the standard metric designations for numbers.
K = kilo = thousand
M = mega = million
G = giga = billion etc, etc
Anyway that is why your M designation threw me off.
Are you saying someone bought 19 million shares? I show the late tick to 3.22, but looks like only about 19,000 shares. Am I misreading your post?
Nice finish today with the longs coming in at the end of the day actually chasing the stock up a few pennies to get in. We are at about midway of the body of yesterdays candle and need to pop back over 3.20 to get the run up again, but as Lakingspan pointed out the zig zag held the up channel.
Here's to next week.
What's that old slogan? GE, we bring good things to life
The candle is obviously very bearish from todays trading. It shows a sound rejection of the 3.40 area. There was good accumulation and money flow through most of the day, but a large dump towards the end of the day. Do not discount the fact that the stock ran over 20% or 60 cents in the last 8 days. A trader who acquired 10,000 shares 8 days ago was looking at a $6000 profit on that move. After the prolonged run-up, and the inability to break through the 3.40 area the sell signal was fairly clear for the short term trader. Based on todays action I would expect more downside pressure tomorrow. Having been soundly rejected from the resistance are the stock will now search for support, which sits fairly strong in the 3.04 area and again around 2.90. Both those areas should lend good buying support, but that support is likely tied to the pending announcements and may not last long if the announcements are not forthcoming.
As long as the announcements are forthcoming and contain some real meat the pullback can be viewed as a buying opportunity, especially for any who took profits on the runup. Any news or PR's need to contain some solid numbers or guidance, as we have several sources who have alerted us that earnings will likely not be earth shattering for Q4. That needs to be offset my real earnings guidance coming into the new FY.
Still a good technical chart for the mid term.
It was on the overbought side. Here comes the profit taking. It was inevitable after the long 8 day runup.
Not quite but close. I bought 50%, then 25 and 25.
I realise everyone wants to be on board the big train ride, but don't forget to take something off the table if you are heavily stacked on the stock. It's been a nice run the last 2 weeks and volume today speaks of some day trader involvement. It's better to book the profits of today, then get caught if things go afoul. I took about 30% down today at $3.35. I will wince a bit if it really runs, but I have real profit, and real downside protection now.
Good luck all.
This morning action looks news driven, but I can't find anything. Has there been perhaps some developement at the trade show?
Agreed. This stock is not being held down by anyone at the moment. MM's would have no trouble capping the stock for zero gain on the volume we have seen this week if that was their intention. Average volume also does not support extensive day trading activity. Just some good ole accumulation by longs.
Anyone watching level II in the last several minutes of trading today would have seen there were more buy orders posted at 3.18, then there were sell orders at 3.20. It was nice to see.
Brian
Dats dem British tax rates for ya. It's the price you pay for all the good brew pubs, and the cool accents you all get to use.
I'm sure it stings, but most of us would like your problems. I'll lift a glass to your commiseration.
Excellent technical chart pattern here. The previous pennant formation has now become the ascending triangle. Nice continued upward price movement is keeping pressure on the resistance levels. Definitely poised for a nice pop on any strong news.
This stock has popped 10% in the last 7 trading days however, so short term profit taking is a possibility this week.
Still all things considerred this looks lke a good place to be. Congratulations to all who are sitting on a profit right now in this stock. Don't forget to take a little off the table if you have a nice profit.
Cheers
I think the PR on the homeland security helped a great deal. That coupled with the massive volume spike attracted the attention of a fair amount of traders.
The recent upward strength is in fact mostly due to forward looking statements as there has been no real concrete earnings numbers to drive support in this stock. There is just enough interest, and the stock is just cheap enough to have attracted some speculative investors.
Also I would be inclined to believe that regardless of how many people choose to post on a board such as this, that there are a great deal of people who view it, and read the posts on it for information. I'm sure somewhere, somebody keeps tracks of hits on the site, and perhaps on each board.
There is a slow but sure speculative interest in this stock. What we need is concrete follow in actual contracts, acquisitions, earnings or guidance to propell the stock upwards. Technically the stock remains in a bullish formation, but speculators can be a fickle bunch if the realization of their position takes too long.
Now todays action can be placed to some extent on the strong runup in the Nasdaq overall. When the Nasdaq runs it tends to carry most tech stocks with it as people look for bargains that may play catchup.
For now I would love to see this stock hold over the $3.00 level. The 50 day MA is already rising. A couple closes over $3.00 would soon have the 200 day MA stabilizing and turning upward. If we spent some time in the $3.25 zone we would eventually get the 50 day MA crossing the 200 day MA, and that always draws a crowd.
Here is the link to the site I often use. Shortsqueeze.com
http://www.shortsqueeze.com/index.php?symbol=tko&submit=Enter
Cheers
There is something afoot. Now again I do lean towards the technical analysis side, and you may boo hoo that all you wish and I would offer no extreme resistance to your arguement. The bottom line is technical and fundamanetal analysis run hand in hand. Good fundamentals drive the chart pattern, therefore good technicals are a consequence of good, or anticipated good fundamantals.
Just 4 weeks ago this stock spiked off a low of $2.32 This low of $2.32 coincidentally was the low of the breakout day from the right side of a W bottom formation back in Aug. Now it broke out on somewhat speculative news for sure, but there is plenty of old smart money in the market. Four weeks late we still sit bouncing regularaly against the 200 day moving average of $3.00 and regularly see volume wel above the previous average of about 220,00 shares a day. $3.00 represents a 30% move over the $2.32 low. The stock would not sit here if there weren't fundamentals to support at least a solid speculation.
If you are into chart patterns we have formed a pennamt since the recent breakout day. The stock is consolidating, but not retreating from newly gained territory. It is coiling like a spring. This is not a certain thing, and any bad news or earnings can easily send it right back down. For the time being though the stock continues regular upward pressure on the resistance at $3.00 and retreats less each time it is rejected. The Jan short interest shows just over a 2% decrease in the amount of short positions in the stock. I actually thought it would be a greater reduction based on the volume on that breakout day in Dec.
At any rate, the technicals support a rally on any strong news or earnings. The stock is poised near a breakout point and if that news comes it is going to pop again. Anyone with large positions should be looking to take profits at or near $3.25 or on an extremely strong breakout $3.50 for the short term.
Barring any bad news the technicals are definitely leaning decidedly bullish at the moment. This stock needs to take out the $3.00 level and hold it with conviction by the end of next week though to continue the pennant pattern.
For the longer term investors of this stock I'm sure it's frustrating, but you were in a decidely bear declining pattern prior to the breakout. The stock has held positive ground with the breakout and the 50 day moving average is starting to rise. Smile, have a little faith. Take some profits on a pop, and protect yourself with downside stops.
It's not that technical. TKO with little news is showing a strong desire to break the $3.00 level. It has been capped there during several recent rallies with the lows drifting higher off each bounce. If TKO can just post some solid fundamental news the stock action shows TKO wants to get above the 200 day moving average, it just needs something concrete to lift it and keep it there. I would think their financials are due in the not to distant future. Where they come in will be the catalyst for the short to mid term price direction of the stock.
OK Grumpy
I'll call you it to your face, because I join you in your grumpiness.
3.10!!! Run baby run. Nice time to get in mvernail. Looks like some good buying action. People have been watching for TKO to break tis resistance level and have come into the stock.
Looks like we may test the 200 day moving average today. A break above and hold above 3.02 would be very nice.
I was attracted by the massive volume spike. The surge in price brought the stock into a technical position for a potential breakout above the top of the double bottom formed in the August time frame. The volume demonstrated good interest in the stock and/or excessive short positions in the stock. I did a little looking into the stock and it looked like it had a valid potential to come out of it's down pattern if they can follow through on some of the things in their pipeline.
My objective is to exit about 50-75% of my position on a positive breakout and re-evaluate long term potential. If a new upward pattern is established with good fundamentals, and I like the long term outlook I will let the remaining 25-50% of my position ride for longer term gains.