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Good article in the Economist about the subject (that's right, I'm nerdy enough to have a subscription to the economist...)
http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9621579
I thought you said no politics? Otherwise, GO GATORS! ;)
Probably. I had a company guy swear before that they PR'd his name that there was no O'
Search if you would like. Just keep in mind that names are often changed by PBLS before they release the info. Southern Concrete Crushing being a prime example recently...
Don't know about any other parties. Could be I guess...
I have no idea on the terms of the deal. Wish I did. Mostly, I wish PBLS would have no part of it per my opinions of the principals involved.
Based on conversations with John, his father had a large stake in the bank that PBLS is buying.
Probably the guys whose office is currently in the old guest quarters at HQ then...
Doesn't matter if the Haydens have ownership in the bank...
One question...
The chart shows dilution by the company, which many expected for some time. However, when the TA was ungagged and Rally Cry started keeping good tabs on the O/S it became apparent that there wasn't enough daily volume to support the increase in the O/S. So was the dilution primarily through recent private placement or do I just not understand how a TA keeps track of the O/S? Clarity from anyone would be appreciated and thanks MaryKate...
Ren
Bank's in Anguilla per MM, Ron Blackburn, John Hayden and Calvin Brown.
Could have been done by private placement but if memory serves me correctly, there were a few days when there wasn't enough volume to cover the O/S increase.
That's been the M.O. though...to PR news of unfinished deals or at least ones with huge projections.
Actually that was when we were in a "quiet period" with a gagged TA. Investors calling BestJets ticked off Paul Alonzo, since he had the wisdom to mention the purchase before PBLS informed the BestJets employees. So it wasn't news based if I am remembering correctly. As for the decline, the company was no longer in a buy back at that point. They rescinded the .03 offer in July 2006. So many believe they were selling shares into the open market and that's what caused the decline. I still don't know if I believe that or not, but the open TA and the 2.5B O/S is pretty compelling "evidence."
My only comment is NEVER BET YOUR FAVORITE TEAM IF YOU ARE A CLOSET REDNECK THAT BELIEVES IN GOD...
"On to college football picks...
Penn State -3
Alabama +3
Florida -18
Had to take the Gators this week. Already had a lunch bet with an Auburn grad so I figured my superstition on betting my team was out the window. If the weather holds, Florida is going to embarrass the Tigers as they are our only loss last year..."
Loser, Loser and LOSER.
I should follow my own advice and never bet my own team and get smiten by the wrath of the Almighty...
Ren
Hello everyone. Seems a little tense around here for some reason...
Looks like HMGP might be testing that .05 support after all. The break below .12 was big for me though I am suspicious of the .119 close (I wasn't watching L2's). If it tests .05, I'll be rolling the dice somewhere along the way. Would be buying some now as I don't need to hit the exact bottom, but cash is a bit tight and capital preservation is the name of the game for the moment.
What if we don't have a clue about stocks but are a college football nut?
Hey everyone. Sorry that it took me a bit to respond to the pm's and such. I'm out of town for the weekend visiting family...
As for me stepping down, there are bunches of reasons. Primarily, I feel like I waste too much time during the day on the board when I could be working or with family. You all know that real estate and lending is crazy right now. My family needs me to stay focused.
The other main reason is simply because I have indeed lost faith in PBLS recently and am frankly frustrated and bored with the stock. I don't think that allows me to maintain an unbiased opinion so it's time to step aside. All I ever wanted to do was help maintain a balanced board so that folks either wouldn't miss the opportunity here or get taken advantage by others. I hope you all find a mod who is positive on the stock but can keep it balanced overall.
BTW I'm not going anywhere. I might sell some but I will keep a modest position. I'll still be around and will be hoping for a good outcome for PBLS as there are many good, hard working folks that post here who deserve a good outcome. Well, maybe not that hard working...;)
Mike
My thought is given in post 55130.
Wait a minute...that's the guy who had those 'problems' with those other guys in the prison right? Was that a compliment...? ;)
Thanks Rally.
T-minus 70M shares to go.
Yep. Wonder what the line will be for LSU-UF. Probably 5.
You mean the team with the 40 point spread over Tulane? Looks like someone thinks they're pretty good.
I also want to pick USF, but I think the mountaineers will have their number this year. Spread is 7. Think I will leave that one alone.
I think Wisconsin will prove they have a good football team this weekend too. Of course it doesn't help that the Spartans O-line is pretty beat up...
I think Meyer is going to want to see his boys whip Auburn if only to give them confidence going into LSU...
A good internal accountant/CFO isn't expensive. Maybe $100k a year, a solid bonus structure and some ownership in the company.
As for "long-term benefits to PBLS," I haven't completely given up on that though the track record is more muddled now than when I first bought.
As for "wishing you had waited for a lower low," you would be just like everyone else on the board. It's hard to call an exact bottom...just try to get a little better each time.
OT - Cutting...
Actually, "everyone" here is really just one poster with many aliases playing with your brain. The one cool guy is really the same person giving you a hard time. Think about it.
(Key twilight zone music)
That's a visual I didn't need...
On to college football picks...
Penn State -3
Alabama +3
Florida -18
Had to take the Gators this week. Already had a lunch bet with an Auburn grad so I figured my superstition on betting my team was out the window. If the weather holds, Florida is going to embarrass the Tigers as they are our only loss last year...
Last week 2 for 3 (Kentucky, Mich. State wins, Ga tech loss). 6 for 9 on the year.
Ren
I hear he stinks at riding horses. Just a rumor.
We love you Bob. Really, at least 17.2% of the time.
Even if they raise the AS to 3.5B, how low could it go Cutting....003/.004? That's why I am waiting.
The one big confusing thing...if they are trying to hammer the pps to help convince longs to convert to preferred, why extend/up the offer and then be late on the divy's? Maybe they didn't anticipate a cash crunch. If so, they need a new CFO/head accountant. Even I could see the growing liquidity issues from the vague numbers given us.
Big news for me now would be Alonzo stepping aside, a new CFO, and some head way on fulfilling KOMEX.
If I could buy at 2 and sell at 6 or 8 and earn back 4 to 6 of the 18 I lost, yep, I'd probably do it. I'd need confidence to know we were on a bottom like we were last Nov. Then I'd move in after I was more confident I wasn't grabbing a falling knife. For now, just watching, waiting and hoping for the best for us all.
At least this time we know most of the decline in the pps is from longs selling and not the company. I can add up about 150-200M shares that I know longs have sold over the past 30 days.
I guess one of the other risks is a suspension. That could flat line the pps for a while but I don't know if it would kill the company. They might move to LDTI or whatever that other ticker is.
Ren
Question for the board:
How is there any more risk in buying PBLS now at .006/.007 than there was last November?
- Last Nov we had a gagged T/A; now the T/A is ungagged but they could raise the AS
- Last Nov we had no idea what their cash flow situation looked like but assumed it wasn't great; now we know/assume its not great
- Last Nov we we cutting off some companies; now we're cutting loose some companies
- Last Nov it was hitting oil for the big pay day; now it's KOMEX for the big pay day
- Last Nov we had basically no information but promise of AF's; now we at least have "Limited Information" and promise of "Current Status"
- Last Nov we had past PBLS longs coming to rub the pps in our noses and "save us" from out stupidity; hey, what do you know? Our "friends" keep stopping by...
- Last Nov it bounced from .006 to .02 in 2 months and I sold and made up for some of my earlier "losses." One more play and I'm "free."
How has risked/reward changed at these prices other than the fact that many are realizing that PBLS might not be the best long-term play? Not being sarcastic...am I missing something here from a "short-term play" stand point. So what if PBLS is a scam? Not saying it is or isn't, but even if it is, the LT chart says it will find a bottom and bounce.
Just trying to detach my emotions and make some money here...
Ren
"Just lay in the weeds and try to look stupid."
Country dumb works. Just ask my long-term clients and a couple non-profits I support...;)
November 2006. Rinse, repeat. November 2007. Rinse, repeat?
If so, good opportunity here either way IMO but of course a bit more risk now...
I will say this that to my knowledge, most of the "O'Reilly/O'Riley/Reilly/Riley" quit rumors originated from one posters who claims a receptionist told them he quit. I can't say I've been to HQ like Shiz and Fmi have. But I do know that as of yesterday, O'Reilly was still working with PBLS. I didn't call anyone today.
I don't have anything else to offer the board at this point so...good night.
Ren
PS I personally can't believe that Shiz or Fmi even admitted they went to HQ. If I go, you won't see me posting it here in the lion's den/shark pit.
Yep, it is. The biggest line of shite in the world is that mortgage rates are directly tied to the Fed Funds rate. That's the stuff the Jim Cramer's of the world feed the sheeples, trying to convince them that the Fed can help save them from their bad real estate investments. That's ludicrious. Cut the Fed Funds rate all you want but it still doesn't make investors buy mortgage backed securities if they feel they are too risky an investment. No buyers means that those security prices have to be reduced to get folks to buy them. Drop the price and the banks have to up the interest rates to be able to cover their operating costs. The end result...banks can borrow money more cheaply from the Fed (which Wall Street views as a sign of weakness and then hammers their pps) but they won't necessarily be able to lend it cheaper.
The only way to "fix the problem" IMO is to let Americans feel the pain for their lack of savings and or over-spending (for the first time in 20+ years). The RE market will correct, but in order to do so there is going to be a pull down in prices first. Economics 101. All the Fed accomplished is delaying the inevitable. Sadly, all of this is going to be so convoluted by political spinsters next November that the sheeples will be convinced that none of the recession was in fact their own damn fault. They'll blame Bush, or the Dems, or the banks, or the mortgage brokers, or the Realtors...anything to avoid looking in the mirror and saying, "boy, that was a dumb buy."