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In repsonse to who the analyst is GLL, I am very interested in that as well. ThinkEquity has a research analyst who covers communications and has a pretty distinct background. Not sure if you are familiar with their analysts but care to comment? I am biting my tongue haha.
You can only short a stock if you have margin account but even if you do you cannot short TKO. No broker/dealer will let you short it.
Do a google search on thinkequity and tko. The research report is available for sale for $50, date of issue looks like May 5, but not was probably available before then, hard to tell. I might just buckle and buy it out of pure morbid curiosity.
I think we can surmise the point of the report.
It cannot be shorted by a retail account. Most broker/dealers will not let you short a stock below 5. If you have a seperate margin account try entering an order to sell 100 shares, I would be more than surprised if it worked.
Again, only instituional clients will be able to short it, or other otcbb stocks. Its not worth the risk for a broker/dealer to let a retail account short a stock like TKO.
You cannot short any stock you want actually. Retail accounts would not be able to short this stock, as you would not be able to short pinkies or OTCBB stocks.
TKO is a hard-to-borrow stock which basically means only institutional traders can short it.
The fact is no one that posts here or yahoo board, regardless of what they say, is short this stock, unless they are working for a institution.
Keep in mind that most institutional desks wont touch a stock on the short side, or long side for that matter, at this price level.
ThinkEquity is a smaller shop. Sirius did you actually read the report? I have not, but, their timing is interesting to say the least, dont you think?
I might be the last one here, and call me Captain Obvious but I am really starting to question the effort of management.
Anyone have anything on this report? This is probably the most relevant item with TKO in the past two months.
I am familiar with some of the past work of people on ThinkEquity's communication research team....Walrus, GLL, any comments?
I am not interested in buying this report as my position in TKO is no longer significant but was hoping someone here did buy it...
Anybody read the research report ThinkEquity just looks they put out?
Read a post on yahoo board mentioning it, then did a search and I think they issued one on May 5 and initiated coverage.
Anyone familiar with the author?
I agree that here is not a spot to chase, but I doubt its short covering. There are no retail shorts in this and there is most likely only a few positions that are actually short. I doubt the specialist ever has a net position one way or the other, there is no reason too when he can make money in both directions.
I think if we saw one of the shorts cover, you would see a million share day or so. I might be wrong, but this was a pretty orderly big move up, unlike a spike from short scramble.
Next few days will be interesting, hopefully the buyer has some legs.
Your term is right, this looks like a clean-up meaning, the seller is done for now. Specialist and buyer(s) is 'cleaning' the rest of the sell order up and we are seeing gravity work in the oppoiste direction for once.
This is a nice order, my guess would be a 300m share market order, maybe more behind it. Whoever is executing the order wants it done today and probably has somewhat of a range or it would of just gapped and fell off.
Nice trading today for once, too bad I didn't click 'submit order' at 2.09 this morning.
I agree with you BSD. The blame I place is soley with the company itself. Any issues with the stock price would be completely irrelevant if the management were more transparent about costs, revenues, and projections. Their inability, or lack of willingness to follow through, has cast a heavy lid on the pps. At this point a 10% short ratio is not surprising to me, its still low and selling by larger owners is not surprising. No one should be surprised that there is no instiutional interest at this point. The instutional owners expected this stock to rise with information that managament had to release. That did not happen for whatever reason. So here we are. Bring results price goes up, continue to say and show nothing this will be worth nothing.
I sold another small block the other day and am at 1/5 of my original position. Granted my cost basis is about 2.95, but this has been dissapointing. I did not have a large position to begin with but had been hanging in there, at this point with what I have left, I can just wait till end of year and hope they get it together.
You have to seperate short sales from what you lumping in to illegal market activity.
Short sales serve a very important function in the market. Without this sell side corporate management would be unaccountable, think Enron.
I want the market to go up as much as the next guy, but I recognize the importance of taking the less popular short side when a company becomes weak or deficient in certain areas.
Also, the problems that surface typically occur in equities that are not covered by Wall Street. Pink Sheet stocks, micro-cap stocks, etc, can fall under different regulations than the more well known securities. The advantage of a NASDAQ or NYSE listing is they are so heavily regulated and scrutinized its extremely difficult for shady business and trading practices to get past. After Enron and WorldCom, the whole business was shaken up and that type of activity in 'listed' securities is unlikely.
Pink Sheet and micro-cap stocks will have their issues because of the nature of the beast. They are priced that way for a reason.
OT - Great buy Chaos, stock has been on fire.
I have been long NIHD for tha past few months and that has worked out well.
I was long GME and that worked pretty well but I sold last week.
AMZN has completely run me over, I have been short this stock for months and am taking a beating. Apparently no PE is too high for AMZN. I have been buying puts all month and am just plain old wrong.
That makes no sense Steel. I do not get where you are coming from. And yes, I understand who and what you are reffering too. Please elaborate.
Its just a market sell order. The offer will automatically follow the bid down, one tic above the bid.
In less liquid stocks this is why you can see dramatic price fluctuations for no apparent reasons. In TKO for example if you put a 10m share market buy order you would push the price up until you found a seller or enough sellers to take the order out. Same thing on the down side. Market orders are generally not a good idea in illiquid stocks unless you have a smaller order or just want to get out. Having said that, I have used market orders in TKO for up to three thousand shares and have gotten good fills. The specialist does a good job of not punishing market orders.
When you see swings on the open, its from market on open orders. These are dangerous to put in because you have no idea where you are going to filled.
Steel, I believe I am familiar to what you are referring to. My question to you is why do you think anyone is full of shit and why does it even matter? One would still think owning the stock at this level, given what we all know about the companies strategic alliances makes for a decent risk/reward scenario, does it not? I am not coming at you at all, I am wondering what changed to cause you to turn negative on the stock. I am assuming you are still long, just frustrated as I am.
Regardless of personal views, mind you I have sold half my position, the current situation would seem a pretty easy read. The buyers already own it, the sellers have been accumulating a short (still a relatively small ratio). I doubt the stock goes in either direction until the company says or does anything.
Ah gotcha, I missed your point entirely then, my mistake. I will reread your post as I read all your posts (you always speak your mind and have something new to share, which is nice to see on message boards).
Shady things do happen and I dont discount that at all, I just believe it happens less than some people think. Sometime the answers are simpler than we think, I for one, often make things more complicated.
As far as TKO goes, like you have said the past, in different words of course, it will only go up when they produce something other than words on a PR.
Right now the sellers are in control because there is no one else out there willing to take on any more risk. It doesnt matter how much you believe in a company, you must still maintain your risk parameters or you wont be in business very long. My finger is only pointed at the company itself. I dont care who is short or how much. When TKO produces, the stock will go up because new money will be there to buy into it. It may not happen tommorow but it is up to the management to line up buyers that will be there when he shows them the $$.
Sirius I am reading this and not understaning why you think shorting those stocks by hedging is manipulation. Option action is a great way to see where bets are placed on where a stock is going to go but it only gives you part of the story. Calls/puts can be used as hedge against a long/short. For instance, in your example on the lenders with sub-prime exposure, if you had the foresight to see the impending shake up and over extention of those banks. I think kudos to them for being able to make money of those banks which over extended themselves.
1. You could of either shorted the equity (which is legal), but leaves you naked to the upside, with unlimited risk.
2. Buy puts, which caps your reward but the only money you risk is the price you pay for them.
3. Sell the calls, again unlimited risk to the upside and the reward is only the premium you recieve.
None of this illegal, its just a way of trading both sides of the equities markets.
I always maintain a mix of longs and shorts in my own small portfolio. It just makes more sense to me to not bet on just one side of the market. I tilt my portfolio to the side I personally believe the general market will trend in the near term. For instance, going into this week I was 60% long, 40% short, no cash. After this week, I sold the into that big up move we had earlier and now am tilted to the downside for a short term pullback. So I am currently 60% short 20% long and 20% cash.
Not saying what I do is right or wrong, its just enables me to make money (hopefully!) in both directions. Its a mini-hedge fund. We as retail investors may not have the same information flow but we are able to trade up/down/sideways markets unlike mutual funds.
There is no way he can know that. If a desk is loading the boat short then it will go down until it finds a level buyers will step in. If they adding a millon shares to their position then maybe this continues until next week. Could be done today, no one knows except the traders who are shorting it.
I, personally, would be very surprised if it breaks 2.50 to the downside on no news.
The manipulation game that people keep throwing around here makes this a lot more complicated and dangerous than it probably really is. Someone is betting against this company making it and shorting the heck out of it. The people that believe in it have already bought into it. Thus, more selling than buying right until the company delivers something that can attract new buyers. That last part is all up to the managment team.
Dont forget this is a highly speculative play in either direction.
Yeah pretty much what I figured. Some type of news release may at least stop the bleeding but I suspect there wont be all that much buying for a bit. The volume is basically showing that there is limited interest on either side. If there was a huge seller this thing would be below $2 right now. I see no reason for it to trade below 2.50 but that is more of a hope than anything else.
I would love to buy more but I have stock (although not a lot)from every level from 3.65 on down. I am done buying this until it gets over $4.
Been an interesting couple of weeks in the market as a whole, I suspect this volatility to last for another month or two. Market has been very resilient, this quarters corporate earnings are going to be a real tell. It is supposed to be a back loaded year, if we can maintain these levels through this earnings season, and nothing unexpected happens on the world front, it should be a decent year.
Anyway, have a good day.
This is looking really ugly. There seems to be an ulimited supply of stock for sale at every level. They need to release something with substance soon. Anyone have any insights? GLL, you have anything to share? I am told the same old story, everything looks good, blah blah blah.
Good one, I had to look that one up. I believe its the modifier for automatice execution. I am not sure what that refers to. It may also mean error trade, which could be broken, but in the this case I doubt it as that is where the stock was trading. i am going with my first response, E is the modifier for Automatic Execution.
And I have no idea what that means, trying to figure it out.
That website has been around along time. They come up with buy/sell signals based on TA. As I said there before this stock will not trade off TA because there is not enough liquidity for traders. TA is works because of the "herd mentality" that occurs in trading. TKO is a very ill-liquid stock that does not have enough volume to generate the type of interest traders look for. Trading desks are mostly like not touching a stock with under 500m shares traded a day. a 50m share order can effect the price by several % points. Thats no good when you are scalping.
This stock does not trade on technicals which is what those links are representing. TA works in a very liquid enviornment which TKO is not. Very few people are buying or selling this security in that fashion.
Its all about the order flow, there just are not enough buyers out there right now, simple as that.
Well I agree with you on one point alone. The current state of the stock price is due to the the company itself and its own doings.
As far as the short side of the story, you are over thinking it, in my opinion. There is most likely a few large short positions. Its not a big surprise, so far shorting on any significant up move has been the right call. Again, its not a significant position, it increased only incrementally. Its not like 50% of the float is short, its not even 10%. I can show you hundreds of well run companies with higher short ratios. Shorts (when its actually borrowed and not artificially created) are not bad people, they are putting a company on notice that they think the company is either being mismanaged or becoming overvalued on a technical and/or fundamental basis.
There could very well be some kind of trade involving the issued warrants and option. And you know what, if that is the only thing keeping this stock down (which I highly doubt) then blame needs to go no further than those who put that deal in place.
On a side note, whatever happened to Pizzrod? His posts were ludicrous but he seemed to have a decent connection to the company and had entertaining posts.
I am not sure what the rationale for not having a CFO is. Not saying its terrible idea, just not sure why they dont have one. I am curious but then again, everything about this company is curious. There is a reason its trading where it is, many reasons. Everyone has an opinion, including myself but all I can hope is that either they are acquired or they have enough in the pipeline to achieve cash flow positive this year and stop the bleeding.
Probably several reasons, but I dont really want to speculate. I dont know what the financial position of the acquired companies was, so I am in no position to make a statment. Obivously the sum is better than the parts, but I dont know any specifics. There is also a risk/reward factor at play. The managment of the acquired company is taking control of more potential $$ than they could get from an otherwise all cash deal.
My problem is the seemingly abscence of fiscal planning. Granted I have no idea what really goes on, but my take is: forcast your expenses and raise enough capital to go about your business. Everytime you ask for more money, it shakes investor confidence.
Like I said before, either Ron and CO. are extremely shrewd, or they need a better CFO. I am hoping he is shrewd and knows that this will be a vague memory down the line.
Remains to be seen.
You are correct. After the IPO, additional funding can come through a secondary offering or a private placement. My only explanation for the series of private placements is TKO did a miserable job of determining capital requirements early on.
I am not sure what free cash is available but if they become cash flow positive Q4, as has been alluded too, they can put an end to further dilution. Between now and then, I have no idea what their cash position is or what they are planning if there is a shortfall.
Looking at the two recent acquisitions, it does not seem they are too worried about their cash position or the effect the dilution that occured because of it.
Either they are very confident in what is happening right now and what sales are going to be this year, or they are completely ignoring shareholder value. I choose to be optimistic, but that reamins to be seen.
Big blocks the past few trading sessions. Nice sign. Will be interesting to see what happens as it approaches 3. This is becoming a very tradeable stock. We have seen 2.65 - 2.75 several times the past couple of weeks. Plenty of entry points.
Still a fairly low short ratio. I would more concerned if we were looking at over 15% short. There is nothing particularly unusual about 9% short ratio. Did you see something in this that stood out to you?
I am interested in seeing February's numbers though, I would think that number would of jummped by several % points. We shall see.
DOC does have a chain but there is no market for it after this year. Those are contracts with open interest. Generally option contracts are listed when securities are priced over $5, which DOC was when option trading started. CBOE strike price guidelines list equities priced between $5 and $25 have $2.50 intervals and $5.00 intervals from $25 to $200.
I trade options frequently and have several years of option trading experience. I can tell you there are no options on the stock, I dont know the listing requirement, but I have never seen a security under $5 with option contracts. TKO is also on the hard to borrow list, so shorting it is not even an option through most broker/dealers. In other words, the average retail investor would not be able to short it through a natural short, a naked short, or a put option.
Not sure what you mean by option play, this stock doesn't have options on it. I wish they did, but they need to move to NAZ or NYSE first. The selling that happened the past few down moves was on no volume as was the move up last week. Today was about a 50% increase in volume over the past week. The buyer was agressive as he could of just sat on the bid at 2.75 all day. That tells me someone is looking to fill a fairly large order with a short time frame. Sooner or later this stock will start trending up, I still think for the most part we will trade in 2.60 - 3.50 range for a couple of months. Downside is still limited at this point, the one thing that scares me is so few hands control so much of it. But that works both ways. If they dont sell, there is a very limited supply.
This week will be wacky, I have option contracts in several securities that are expiring this friday and they have been all over the place. I personlly believe we are between 1-5% off the bottom here. Its more of a gut feeling than anything else. Just by watching intraday action i get a sense that even when we go down, its not really selling, its just buyers getting out of the way.
Havent post for a while, but there has been no reson too. Up and down the past week on zero volume. Today is a strong day for sure. Up on nice volume with huge blocks taken off the ask. One for 100m this morning, one for 50m a few minutes ago. Buyer hanging around with more to go.
2.50 was most likely the bottom. I would be happy buying from 2.50-2.80 for now. Sold half of my position from 2.90-3.20. Bought some at 3.65 and some more last week at 2.70.
As far as doom and gloom go sirius, Dow and NAZ and SP all have support around 2% lower than where we are currently. We may touch it but I dont think we break it. This correction needed to happen, volatility has been zilch since May. From a trading and fundamental standpoint, corporate earnings have been very good, and I personally think the subprime concerns have been overblown. Its been a reason to lock in gains, thats all. Lot of money still on sidelines. Since June when we rallied back there has been no place to buy in, now we have it.
Depends on company and financial position of company. TKO is not a mature enough company financially to even think about a buy back right now. They need to use assets to fund R&D, expansion, and organic growth. I was more just saying that in jest. In reality, I think it will work out long term. I wish I was long from here, I would be less ansty to see something materialize.
At least we survived this market downturn with out feeling too much pain, that would of felt like a further slap in the face.
There are 50m shares on the offer. Stock is going nowhere. 10 thousand share sell order and its trading 2.65. Company should use half of that new money and buy back stock :(
That guy should have his liscense revoked. Crap like that is so wrong on so many levels.
At some point when he realized he bought the top of the real estate market maybe he wont be so eager to spread crap like that. Apparently he missed the class on the trickle down effect from one of the longest bull market runs in a long time.
Realized that as soon as I posted. Was kind of surprised we sank that quickly, haven't seen a move like that since '02. But I'd rather get a correction out of the way and just move on. We may have another 2-5% drop left to go. Curious move today as Consumer Confidence at a five year high did nothing to mute the fall. Now would be a good time to open up social security to the market! Only way I'll ever see it anyway. At 32 I am funding something I have no shot at ever seeing. Its ok though, I have no problem paying for my parents pay check, I owe them big anyway!