Dew,

After YMI's fall, could this be a value play based on their anti-EGFR drug?

biophud

Research on MAB 806, an anti-EGFR antibody with distinct epitope specificity.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?db=pubmed&cmd=Retrieve&dopt=AbstractPlus&l...

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?db=pubmed&cmd=Retrieve&dopt=AbstractPlus&l...

Comments/Questions:

1. I find it interesting that MAB 806 and a cetuximab-like antibody have additive/synergistic effects.

2. What do we know about Imclone's human anti-EGFR? Compared to cetuximab, are there any differences in affinity and epitope specificty. I seem to recall in a presentation that it binds a similar (same?) epitope as Erbitux.

3. MAB 806 (or a humanized derivative) looks like an interesting molecule that industry may want to develop.

biophud

New paper from Imclone-->anti-PDGFR-alpha antibody

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?db=pubmed&cmd=Retrieve&dopt=AbstractPlus&l...

New anti-VEGFR paper from Imclone

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?db=pubmed&cmd=Retrieve&dopt=AbstractPlus&l...

New paper

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?db=pubmed&cmd=Retrieve&dopt=AbstractPlus&l...

New Erbitux clinical trial

http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct/show/NCT00422773?order=2

New paper from Genentech on anti-neuropilin antibody

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?db=pubmed&cmd=Retrieve&dopt=AbstractPlus&l...

New clinical trial-->Phase II trial for Erbitux in triple negative breast cancer.

http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct/show/NCT00420329?order=1

biophud

Erbitux clinical trial

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?db=pubmed&cmd=Retrieve&dopt=AbstractPlus&l...

C225 immunoliposomes

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?db=pubmed&cmd=Retrieve&dopt=AbstractPlus&l...

New publication from Imclone--VEGFR-2 and-3 inhibition

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?db=pubmed&cmd=Retrieve&dopt=AbstractPlus&l...

I do not have a position in NKTR, but from what I have read it looks like a high quality company. I'm not sure what to make of the new CEO. I like the fact that multiple drugs using its technology are in clinical trials (diversifying regulatory risk). Couple of questions.

Is NKTR's revenue stream sufficient for its 1+ Billion dollar market cap?

Does NKTR need more than royalty revenue in order to grow into a large-cap biotech?

Should/Are biotechs that rely on licensing technology valued differently that product-based biotech companies?

Comments appreciated.

biophud

New Paper-->new mechanism of action for anti-ErbB antibodies.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?db=pubmed&cmd=Retrieve&dopt=AbstractPlus&l...

Neuropilin antibody research from Genentech.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?db=pubmed&cmd=Retrieve&dopt=AbstractPlus&l...

Dew, Thanks for the comments and info. I was unaware that Axiokine was a second generation product.

I agree with you that it is mystifying that neutralizing Abs were not detected until phase III.

IMO the neutralizing ABs are a potential problem with any recombinant protein-->recombinant proteins like EPO, GH, etc., monoclonal antibodies, and fusion proteins.

The Regeneron Trap is a fusion of an Fc domain and extracellular components of VEGFR receptors. Fusion proteins are non-endogenous proteins, and I have theoretical concerns that neutralizing Abs could form. Maybe my concerns are over blown. We will just have to see the clinical data. Neutralizing ABs are not a problem with Enbrel, a soluble receptor/fusion protein that has done very well. biophud

My comments on REGN.

IMO REGN looks like a high quality research outfit (lots of papers in high quality journals). As an example, here is a link a recent paper in Nature (Note: that Genentech has similar research in the same issue).

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?db=pubmed&cmd=Retrieve&dopt=AbstractPlus&l...

However, the CNTF failure made me question REGN. They found a high percentage of neutralizing antibodies to CNTF in a phase III trial (pleasse correct me if I am wrong). It would seem to me that when you are running a trial on a recombinant protein one of the first things that you want to look for are neutralizing antibodies. I just don't see how they could have missed this in the Phase I and II trials.

Neutralizing antibodies could be an issue with their VEGF trap, a non-native fusion protein.

I don't short stocks, but the current price seems expensive to me. If it were to fall below $10, I would consider a purchase of REGN.

biophud

Lessons to be learned from TELK--Questions(s) for board.

When handicaping a drug's chance of sucess, I consider it a positive to have a pharma or large biotech as a partner in drug development. My thinking is that it is good to have a second set of eyes evaluate the data. If pharma/large biotech views the data high enough quality to get through the FDA, then they fund the project.

Is there data to back up my impression? Specifically, do partnered drugs have a higher sucess rate in Phase III?

Regarding the converse.

As a general rule of biotech investing, what does it say when a biotech has an unpartnered drug in phase III. Specifically, should it have been a warning sign seeing that TELK's drug was unpartnered in phase III?

Happy New Year!

biophud

Great Article Dew-Thanks.

Happy New Year!

biophud

Review article from Imclone on angio-inhibitors.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?db=pubmed&cmd=Retrieve&dopt=AbstractPlus&l...

Anti-angiogenesis papers, in the same issue of Nature, from Genentech and Regeneron. Both papers looking at Dll-4.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?db=pubmed&cmd=Retrieve&dopt=AbstractPlus&l...

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?db=pubmed&cmd=Retrieve&dopt=AbstractPlus&l...

biophud

Jbog--I am positive on IMCL's anti-VEGFR2 programs.
Recently, Rebecca @Imclone IR sent me the slides from a recent Rodman & Renshaw investor's conference (Dec 2006?). I thought it was interesting that there was no mention of the the CDP-791 program. The presentation did mention Imclone's anti-VEGFR2 antibody. Not sure what it means (if anything).

Have a great holiday!

biophud

New preclinical research from Biogen.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?db=pubmed&cmd=Retrieve&dopt=AbstractPlus&l...

Looks like several groups are developing soluble receptors and antibodies for Alz. ELN, BIIB, and DNA come to mind.

I have several questions/comments about this research

1. Does lowering beta-amyloid levels correlate with improved funtioning in humans (without causing serious side effects)?
2. I would think that orally-available small molecule inhibitors (that target BACE1, gamma-secretase, etc.) would be preferable to biologic agents.
3. Where is AMGN in all of this? Several years ago they were involved in the cloning of BACE-1. But if you do a pubmed search, most of the preclinical work on BACE inhibitors is being done by MRK and other big pharma companies.

Sorry to ramble. To everyone on the board, Have a great holiday!

biophud

Good point. Thanks Dew and have a great holiday.

biophud

Looking to diversify, and I would like to pose this question to the board.

What sectors/investments are inversely correlated with the biotech/pharma sector?

biophud

Re: GSK anti CD20 deal. It does not suprise me that Genmab got lots of $$$ for their AB. It does suprise me that it is the biggest biotech deal of all time. Seems like a lot of $$$ for a second generation product. Interesting that it came out the same day as the Rituxin news.

biophud

Thanks corky and jbog for your opinions. In general, I agree with your analysis and believe that Erbitux is the better drug.

One concern that I have is the PR-campaign that I have seen. It seems like AMGN always gets positive press with Vectibix (in contrast to Imclone).

biophud

Corky, jbog, and others. Any comment on the Amgen #'s that were reported today?

biophud

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20061218:MTFH77524_2...

New oncology deal for BMY

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/061218/sfm051.html?.v=74

Dew--After the demise of the AMD program, do you see any value in GENR's early stage programs like the Medimmune IL-9 antibody.

biophud

Sounds like they will focus on oncology.

Given Imaging?

New clinical trial Velcade + Avastin for NSCLC. Interesting secondary endpoint that looks at circulating endothelial cells (CECs) prior to treatment, prior to cycle 2, and/or at the time of progression.

http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct/show/NCT00411593?order=2

biophud

I want to invest based on the thesis that there will be an increasing use of biological agents in developing economies. As the standard of living increases in developing economies, I believe there will be increased use of biologic agents (for example expanding use of EPO in China). In addition there are diseases that have a high prevalence in Asian counties that are potentially treatable with biologic agents. For example gastric cancer and nasopharyngeal cancer (see link below). I have used China/Asia as an example, but I believe that the trend applies everywhere.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?db=pubmed&cmd=Retrieve&dopt=AbstractPlus&l...

Questions for the Board?

1. Is my basic investment thesis correct? and if so, what is the best way to profit from this trend? Is my thesis premature?
2. Do intellectual property/piracy concerns limit or prevent this growth?
3. What companies/stocks will profit from this trend? Large US biotech? International pharmas? Local companies?
4. What biotechs are the most aggressive in staking claim to emerging markets?

Any comments would be appreciated,

biophud

LOL

Article on Yeda/patent issues.

http://patentbaristas.com/archives/000490.php

According to this report Avastin is a pill. A good example why you have to be critical when reading media reports about biotech/pharma drugs.

If reporters can't get this correct (Avastin is an antibody, not a pill) then how can we expect then to understand and report more complex and subtle biotech issue (IgG1 vs. IgG2 antibodies)?

Like this report on Avastin, the vast majority of media reports on IMCL are very superficial, and (IMHO) unfair to IMCL.

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20061214:MTFH97164_2...

biophud

New publication. Erbitux in gastric cancer.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?db=pubmed&cmd=Retrieve&dopt=AbstractPlus&l...

Dew-->With today's news, what do you think would be a good entry point on VRTX. I have always viewed it a good biotech; however, based on its current market cap it appears fully valued/overvalued, IMHO.

biophud

Question re Medimmune research day/analyst presentation. Did any one see the presentation or look at the slides? I went through the slides and liked what I saw. However, one thing I noticed was that were only a couple of slides on Abegrin out of 200+ slides. I found this surprising because it is a high profile oncology product in phase II/III. Also, in Medimmune's recent press release on its oncology products, I did not see Abegrin mentioned. Not sure what significance this has--if any. Comments would be appreciated.

biophud