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I am assuming that it is highly unlikely that there would be a successfull launch elsewhere in the world and have Tyzeka fail in the US. Is this a valid assumption? Immigration plays big into the equation, I know.
Thanks, Dew, for highlighting that aspect again. The Atryn choice has been difficult from a stock appreciation point of view because of the first couple steps in the pathway not being particularly lucrative. It makes perfect sense, however, if we are able to end up with an approved DIC drug as an "endaround" and Atryn still available for other treatments in addition to HD and DIC. I think I am correct in thinking there are still more applications for Atryn.
Better than expected non-US sales, even to the point of reaching the 20M estimate by year end in spite of slow US sales should put to rest any concerns about the drug itself IMO.
read in conjunction with this post by DD, we have an extremely compelling buy situation here IMO.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=21746191
Any upcoming milestones possible? TIA
Thanks
Thanks, there seem to be a few areas where Tyzeka has a chance to become dominant within the HBV market. Pregnant women with HBV, HIV/HBV infected, etc. I suppose this is true for most competing drugs.
Way OT:
Fall being harvest time, I have recently put up a batch of wine. I use these grapes collected from a michigan river nearby:
Vitis riparia Michx, also commonly known as River Bank Grape or Frost Grape, is a native American climbing or trailing vine, widely distributed from Quebec to Texas, and Montana to New England. It is long-lived and capable of reaching into the upper canopy of the tallest trees.
This particular grape is significant because of its content of Resveratrol.....
http://pubs.acs.org/cgi-bin/abstract.cgi/jafcau/2006/54/i23/abs/jf061722y.html
Extremely high extractable amounts of resveratrol in berry skins [>100 g g-1 of skin fresh weight (FW)] and seeds (>20 g g-1 of seed FW) were observed on two rootstock cultivars obtained from hybrids of V. monticula × V. riparia. Extractable amounts of resveratrol in berries of rootstock cultivars that are the descendants of V. riparia were also very high.
(Resveratrol) has been identified as an antioxidant and anti-platelet aggregation (anti-clotting) agent and indicated in helping reduce the incidence of Coronary Heart Disease and stroke, reduce the incidence of stomach ulcers caused by the bacteria helicobacter pylori, improve bone density for post-menopausal women, reduce prostate enlargement in men, reduce the risk of diabetes, improve dental health and delay growth of some tumors and leukemias (more).
http://www.redwinebuzz.com/glossary_q-r.htm
Comparing diets among western countries, researchers have discovered that although the French tend to eat higher levels of animal fat, surprisingly the incidence of heart disease remains low in France.[1] This phenomenon has been named the French Paradox
I thought this was interesting and cool and I was pleased to find out that my favorite grape for winemaking also had potential health benefits.
How is one to interpret the data given HBV's accelerated incidence along with theoretical increased diagnosis and in light of the 2005 (Baraclude) vs. 2007 (Tyzeka) total scripts? It would seem that total scripts would be greater but Baraclude is entrenched.
Is it possible to see a dent in Baraclude sales since Tyzeka has become available? I mean, is Tyzeka a problem for Baraclude or are their sales increasing at a consistent rate irrespective of Tyzeka. Thanks
Why should I own IDIX?
This is my list:
1) Tyzeka
2) Cash provides fundamental low end of probable SP range
-1) HCV adds risk, burns cash, failed once
-2) HIV adds risk, burns cash
Interesting that biotech executives continue to pursue programs that "the market" places negative value on.
Some (on message boards) have questioned the efficacy of Tyzeka and this report would seem to put that to rest.
Not to be cynical about it, but it would figure that NVS would make sure that non-US sales met targets before US sales, right? Or perhaps IDIX is responsible for US sales with less financial depth? It gets interesting here IMO. If non US sales are doing better than expected, that is very significant, if not huge for Tyzeka.
This was the post by goseek:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=22554643
Thanks a lot for all the informative posts. I guess supply and demand play a big role here. There are entities just lightening up on their entire portfolio and others selling for tax losses, and just fewer of those who are ready to buy and in that case the price will go down every time. I liked that post awhile back about the stock market psychology.
http://sanfrancisco.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/stories/2002/10/28/story3.html
What are some of the most severe and unwarranted examples of this?
IDIX, HEPH (before yesterday), etc.
OT: (sort of)
http://sanfrancisco.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/stories/2002/10/28/story3.html
What are some of the most severe and unwarranted examples of this?
IDIX, HEPH (before yesterday), etc.
Thanks, LOL, I really shouldn't even guess at BT cash flow and such - such a rarity! I hope my 10M cash flow estimate, a SWAG, is the "error to the low side" of the century!
Flo, I was teeing off this:
From Sept. 4th. I believe:
>>Rodman & Renshaw notes that GTCB disclosed earlier today that the FDA has designated ATryn a "fast track product" entitled to accelerated FDA review for the antithrombin hereditary deficiency indication. The firm views the granting of the Fast Track Designation to ATryn for AT-HD as a positive development for GTCB. They are cognizant that A.T-H.D. is a very small indication in which GTCB is unlikely to derive significant commercial sales for ATryn. However, they say U.S. approval will provide a further validation of the co's transgenic goat protein-production technology and will allow the co to establish a strong foothold in the U.S. which would position ATryn well for much larger indications such as disseminated intravascular coagulation in association with severe sepsis, and burn. <<
Anyway, I called TN at GTC and discussed this with him and came away with the same feeling, that AT-HD is even smaller in the US than in the EU and would not fund the kind of growth GTC is looking for, however, it would generate profits and would be "worth doing" in it's own right, but the main reason for doing it would be the DIC ind. I understand the part about GTC not having to share the profit nearly as much as in the EU.
It would be helpful for investors to be able to get a range of sales and subsequent profit potential from the combined AT-HD programs. I bet that eventually cash flow would be near 10M annually at the top end, witch should yield a market cap over today's EV for that alone. I have to admit that I view AT-HD in the US as pretty much a given, barring some strange data coming back from usage in the EU.
Do you think we would need a partner in the US to effectively market Atryn for HD? I wonder if, because of the fact that there is a shortage in the US, it would be easier to market than some other drugs with intense competition like Tyzeka, for example.
Dew, I am beginning to understand that Atryn US for the HD ind. is not going to produce much revenue. I understand that the Atryn DIC ind. is the real prize and doing Atryn for HD is a prerequisite for the FDA to allow GTCB to get a jump regarding the DIC trials later.
I was surprised that Atryn US would not be much of an economic win by itself if we were to gain approval by the FDA. I guess I was hoping that approval might help stem the flow of new shares out of GTCB's treasury by significantly reducing the cash burn.
HEPH http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070907/20070907005122.html?.v=1
Company seems to have a future with this line of research.
HEPH - The company is developing drugs that (in layman's terms) are supposed to enhance our immune system's ability to cope with inflammation, for example, by helping white blood cells somehow. It seems that their research has been pretty consistent over the past 9 years or so, focusing on the same concepts, and has apparently produced some positive results in a couple instances (HIV and nuclear radiation treatment)
I am sure most of you are well aware of the company, but I have become interested because of the fact that they are trading well below cash and they seem to have a shot at a couple new drugs for Diabetes and Arthritis (which will require lots more cash and/or partners.
Anyway, what is the "skinny" on this company? Thanks
I heard an interesting take on PIII trials yesterday from the CFO of a biotech company. The statement was that PIII trials should seldom fail. The idea was that if a company does its homework correctly and does the upfront work required, they should be able to minimize the risk of non-approval. If this is true, I hope GTCB takes it time and does the Atryn US trial in a manner that reduces risk appropriately and gives us the best chance for success.
Where does one buy this expensive data? How expensive is it? At what time does it appear during the day? Thanks and my comments were not directed toward Dew, who obviously is the heart and soul of this board with help from a few others as well. In fact they were not directed toward anyone at all. And I am probably more gratefull than I should be for all of this.
LOL, I can just see a round of predictive graphs coming!
What is amazing is that this company is spending about 400 thousand dollars per business day on average during the last 2 quarters of this calendar year. I hope the are spending wisely.
It's just a wonder these days that anyone is bidding anything at all for biotech. I have an idea: how about all biotech companies buy all shares outstanding for 1/2 price, take us all out back for a whipping and save us all the grief of losing the entire thing.
Thanks for listening and I PATIENTLY await the Tyzeka script data for the week.
Scripts for the week of Aug. 10th?
>>Morgan-Stanley NOT bottom-fishing even @ $2.30
"see little reason to own the stock as Tyzeka's ultimate commercial potential continues to diminish"<<
Morgan Stanley - no concience.
They are attempting to recover the loss from the contractor but, of course, they cannot guarantee they will be successful
24 analysts and 213 questions. Cox answered the first few questions so well that no further questions were required.
In addition, I have a very good feeling about the management today which I didn't have before and I think it is based on the reality check which occured over the past year with regard to finances. I think they responded well to the low share price dillema.
Biggest item for me was the low cash burn, which IMO could be reduced even more if Atryn gets better than expected acceptance. At any rate, the dillitive effects of the recent past could be lessened IMO.
From what I read here Tyzeka's uptake is governed by several factors, none of which MS bothered to expound on. It seems to me that they just set up this estimate and when it didn't reach it they concluded that the drug was never going to achieve. When they recommended buy @ $27, wasn't Tyzeka part of that? Yes, but they should have figured for a slow uptake by definition (unless I read all the technical descriptions wrong here).
I don't believe one can compare Tyzeka to Elan's MS drug.
Which is more egregious, MS recommending a buy and target of $29 2 yrs ago, or recommending "no buy" at $2.30, 20M below cash value? My advice would be FU to any of the firms and their worthless analysts. We have 20X better talent here (not me) than that.
Pipeline/no pipeline:
>>“Despite the FDA’s decision to put valopicitabine on clinical hold and our subsequent decision to halt the program’s development, we remain excited about our pipeline and about the future of Idenix,” said Jean-Pierre Sommadossi, Ph.D., chairman and chief executive officer of Idenix. “Over the past two years, we have devoted significant resources toward building a robust antiviral pipeline. In addition to our HIV non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor, which entered the clinic this year, we have a comprehensive HCV discovery engine that includes a focused effort in every major class of anti-HCV drugs: nucleoside polymerase inhibitors, non-nucleoside polymerase inhibitors and protease inhibitors.” <<
Yahoo's "key statistics" shows some erroneous information.
Market Cap (intraday)6: 129.19M
Enterprise Value (8-Aug-07)3: 12.83M
One shouldn't rely on Yahoo! data, but why isn't this updated? Isn't this what IR is supposed to monitor to some degree and notify Yahoo! of problems? When I called IR I thought the gal there was pretty casual in the face of devastation of corporate market value.
GTCB and IDIX: two companies with approved drugs and decent finances that have been shitcanned by the market like they were worthless rags.
Added @2.42
Added @2.62, this is as crazy as I am and that's pretty crazy :)